Probably true. But I'd be careful making too much of that whale dump. Go back to July 10 (or so) in 2013. Marked the end of the post-April bear market. Buying pressure slowly, but clearly started building up after the bottom, 2h, then 6h BB started looking really nice, then: HUGE dump.
Took price development back for about a week, but didn't alter the general direction.
What I'm trying to say is: not sure yet if this is the reversal or not, but whales can occasionally be dumbfucks as well, and can lose money. Whoever dumped that huge load back in July 18 never got his coins back for the same price (unless he was on gox in the past days, but that doesn't quite cut it.)
Market was already correcting before whale turned up with his 10K of auctioned/stolen/Gox'd BTC. I started shorting on Bitfinex again (being sure not to set any stop losses for the fkers to farm) as I seen that the charts were badly oversold and couldn't resist. This was at about $633 and I got in at about $623. 10K whale never turned up until $595.18. So taking his market input out of the equation, charts were already well on their way to forming yet another bear wedge with support at $530, similar to the $765 bear support wedge through Jan 2014. With the whales sell off, this bearish wedge has broke to the downside, at least on Stamp. This alone wouldn't count for anything other than an anomaly, except like I said, the whale tricked bots into blowing $3 million USD at his $797 sell wall, in addition to soaking up the same again in market liquidity at lower prices. I am always prepared to keep my mind open to possibilities that veer beyond my own take on the market, as this is real money that I am playing with here. However, for me, $530 was not a bottom. It was the support of a bear wedge and this whale dump has simply brought a jack-boot down upon the still bearish market. Disagree with your assessment on yesterday. I'm keeping my eyes open for signs that the reversal happens, simply because my short term buys would become "real" holds again in that case. Yesterday was such a day. Strong signals on 6h BB, CMF sharply up. Low on volume, because weekend, so no certainty yet, sure. Earlier today came the retracement. Of course we were short term overbought, that's what happens in either case, when a trend reverses, or when it's a false breakout. That "retracement" however was fucked up brutally by our friend, the whale. So back to square one, imo. Looking bearish again, I agree with you, but to really count as a continuation of a bear market we would damn well need to see sub-500 coins at some point, I'm sure you agree. And getting there is sure taking some time. The longer we bounce between 530 and 580, the less more I'll warm up to the idea that sub-500 coins won't happen anymore. Except maybe for a flash crash if gox outright declares that they're bankrupt and the the sheep hit the sell button without thinking twice. I do base my trades on 4h chart short term and 3d for mid/long term calls, A reversal was about to form up at 620-640 but looking at the 4h chart it seemed like a bull trap, the price could start raising and we could be done with the down trend if everything went normal, but Gox complicated things here... I was so sure about 600's resisting, but then gox fucked up and fucked all the charts, it was then when I sat down and reconsidered all my positions, to be honest even with holding bitcoin, I really wish that 350-450 to happen, because most of people are waiting for it, it is a psychical thing, if it happens once we can move on, until then the image is really blurry and the only thing I can think out of this, is downtrend... |
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another 457 BTC dump... Edit: I like it how a 500 BTC got add right away  these traders will get burned so hard when they realize they could buy cheaper |
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looking to the MACD (4h chart) for the 3rd time today, the dump that happened before just strengthen the down trend, a fast recovery or shoot up is almost far away (the chart is saying that and not me) add to that the gox BS happening, and every day this will continue the gap will get bigger and the price will go lower.
my speculation out of this is that we will see a new since the $1163 top, it wont be strange ( in fact it is really possible) if we see a flash crash till 300, we will fast recover to 400 and stay between 400-450 for weeks... the next MACD cross over signal will take few days, and that cross is the one that will bring us back to 400-450 ?!!
Bulls, no need to attack me here, this is just my prediction and it is not a trading advice.
I really want to go back this thread and quote your multiples offenses to Rpietila because he was saying something very similar to this you are saying right now. Cheers Bro!!! I will copy them for you if you want!!? I didn't trash his predictions but I trashed his ego and each time he said you should listen to me because "I am a market mover" and "I am richer" and I smoke fancy expensive cigars... this is what I hated most about him, he had some pretty good calls, also some bad calls but I am a guy with no tolerance to that kind of behavior, instead of bragging about your wealth go help some people in need.... it is also possible that his ego stepped on my ego, nothing to be ashamed of, I have a really strong ego and for a moment I am aggressive when people step on it but then I sit down and I realize and I know that I did wrong, and I always come back and apologize for my mistakes, I am not ashamed to apologize, although I am ashamed that I cant control my ego sometimes, and I am working on it... I have no hard feelings for risto anymore, he is the kind that I don't understand but hey, I don't know him personally anyways, nevertheless his technical opinion is valuable to me. |
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looking to the MACD (4h chart) for the 3rd time today, the dump that happened before just strengthen the down trend, a fast recovery or shoot up is almost far away (the chart is saying that and not me) add to that the gox BS happening, and every day this will continue the gap will get bigger and the price will go lower. my speculation out of this is that we will see a new since the $1163 top, it wont be strange ( in fact it is really possible) if we see a flash crash till 300, we will fast recover to 400 and stay between 400-450 for weeks... the next MACD cross over signal will take few days, and that cross is the one that will bring us back to 400-450 ?!! Bulls, no need to attack me here, this is just my prediction and it is not a trading advice. |
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If this continues we'll be looking at Bitcoin a few months from now as 1 big failed experiment that got ruined by Mark, criminals, inside trading and manipulation. One big ponzi scheme.
The result of non regulation i guess. I wouldn't advise any of my friends anymore to invest in this clusterfuck.
The stuff that's being pulled here makes the real world big bankers and traders look like honest, nice people.
there was even harder times but Bitcoin survived, what is happening now is effecting the price, it may drop really low, some people will lose confidence and cash out and be done with bitcoin, these never believed in Bitcoin anyways, I saw people moving with their lives all the time, everyone has a price... but what is happening now is just the last clearing before Bitcoin goes mainstream, some people have to be pushed out, it will negatively effect the economy for a short term period but we need this to happen for the long term health of Bitcoin. so now you are testing your faith, even you stay or you go out, I can give you an advice, if you want to breath easily and if all of this is stressing you, try to sell some of your coins cash them out do something you wanted to do for so long, go to vacation.... and you will feel much better, I really found that helpful... |
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The BitStamp wall has been at the same price for about 7hours now...I watched it go in 10K @600, and then it was moved a couple of times before settling at 579.34 since when it hasn't moved. I tend to think if this was a tactic in part of a larger strategy, then we would have seen the wall move price testing support.
That it hasn't been moved suggests s/o simply cashing out or a naive or inexperienced trader rather than a master manipulator.
NB Above theory could be total bollocks
or a smart trader who will sell now and buy much cheaper.... I appreciate the larger assumed strategy but I've been watching these wall games for about a year now and they are usually repositioned to maximise their effect and impact, indeed you usually begin to divine a purpose to the moves. But this gut looks like he parked an order and has gone off to do other things. yes why not ? I would do the same... it takes patience to make profit, watching the 15 minute chart will never make you any profit, you will be just paying allot of fees and losing your nerves, I found a couple of trades a month to be the most profitable trades ever. I can smell a crash to 400, you dont have to be bullish short term, you have to adjust your position with market moves, but to be honest I am so bullish long term... |
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The BitStamp wall has been at the same price for about 7hours now...I watched it go in 10K @600, and then it was moved a couple of times before settling at 579.34 since when it hasn't moved. I tend to think if this was a tactic in part of a larger strategy, then we would have seen the wall move price testing support.
That it hasn't been moved suggests s/o simply cashing out or a naive or inexperienced trader rather than a master manipulator.
NB Above theory could be total bollocks
or a smart trader who will sell now and buy much cheaper.... |
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555 defended for now.
with 28 BTC yes.... lets see how these 28 bitcoins will hold when the whole europe finds out... |
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ok just to sum up with what I said yesterday but some members trashed me really hared : Good morning there, I didn't sleep till 04:00 Europe time (GMT+1). and just woke up, watching Bitstamp now,so the price went up to 646 !!...how do we translate this? something worth mentioning is that the MACD is still negative: the 12 period AMA is above the 26 period AMA, there will be a cross over in few hours and the price may drop. only now it seems that a reversal is possible, the next drop will decide if we continue going down , or if there will be a rally up, of course the Gox situation will complicate things a little bit..   |
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Good morning guys, what is up ? did I miss anything, I dont want to go through the last 20 pages so can anyone summarize what is happening ?
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I forgot to mention something before, basing trades only and purely on indicators and charts is plain ridicules, market sentiments, news and rumours, insider trading and some other things can ruin your plans (and there I fucked up many times), also the waves of adoption rate can make a difference.
I shared my TAs on this thread only few times, and I found it hard to understand people who base their predictions only on news or only on TAs, as you can recall my arguments with Risto, he based his calls on pure TA ( and the Ego involved wasn't acceptable for me, maybe his ego stepped on my ego which I totally admit).
but from this Gox mess, I feel more confident about not just bottoming yet, nevertheless the TA could show a bottom forming but Mtgox BS could effect that, we will see in which way.
this is only my opinion (no financial advise).
Sorry but you don't get indicators this clear every day is that Gox ? get out of here  |
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Although, I still think Bitcoin is extremely undervalued, but I try to avoid talking about the exchange rate (I'm biased). A fucking messaging app sold for $19 billion... I know it's apples and oranges, but Bitcoin provides far, far more utility than a messaging app.
Like that comparison. Hadn't thought of that one.
The more I think about it, the more interesting it becomes (in my mind). Bitcoin can be seen as free speech, from the right perspective. Transactions are shouted to the world, and the world decides to write them in stone. If you want to stop bitcoin, you are infringing on the freedom of speech. (I can no longer share this information with the network.) Every thing is open and available for the world to audit. The servers are decentralized. Now this messaging app is also a form of speech, but it's proprietary. There is nothing free about it. The source is closed. The servers are centralized. (I'm making some assumptions here, I didn't bother to do any research. If I'm wrong, my bad.) WTF is wrong with the world when this messaging app is worth billions of dollars? Fuck it, Bitcoin will probably fail because people are ignorant assholes! you brought a funny story to my memory, I have a friend who lived in France that was invited to work in Qatar, he earn a good salary there and have a paid flat and paid car and (paid expenses in general), the only thing he spends on is food and luxury, depends on what luxury means, usually our priorities are different, what is luxury for me could be obligation for you, but knowing my friend pretty good (my best friend) I know for sure that he is not the kind of person who spends but the kind of who like to save to do big things. this bring us to the story, he has been in Qatar for several years now and last year he came to visit me here (summer time), and while discussing life matters with him he asked me about my opinion on investing some of the money he saved, he was thinking about investing €20K ( I didn't mention that he is a journalist and I am an IT engineers) so I responded right away buy some bitcoins, the price was around $70-90... after explaining the whole thing to him with excitements, he said nah what ever... the funny thing is that he visited me back in December 2013 and asked me again the same question, and I told him if you invested into Bitcoin you would have 10 times more what you've invested, but he kept his opinion and told me nah now it is too late. the moral of story, people usually doesn't see the bottom of things (that you see), no matter how you try with them, it doesn't interest them and that is it, for instance it took me a year and a half to convince my co-workers to try out Bitcoin and it took me 15 minutes to convince the computer hardware online store to add bitcoin as a payment method ( www.sestavi.si if you are interested) |
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I forgot to mention something before, basing trades only and purely on indicators and charts is plain ridicules, market sentiments, news and rumours, insider trading and some other things can ruin your plans (and there I fucked up many times), also the waves of adoption rate can make a difference.
I shared my TAs on this thread only few times, and I found it hard to understand people who base their predictions only on news or only on TAs, as you can recall my arguments with Risto, he based his calls on pure TA ( and the Ego involved wasn't acceptable for me, maybe his ego stepped on my ego which I totally admit).
but from this Gox mess, I feel more confident about not just bottoming yet, nevertheless the TA could show a bottom forming but Mtgox BS could effect that, we will see in which way.
this is only my opinion (no financial advise).
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Some would call me a troll, but here you go
No coins at all. Fail. you want me to sign my address for you ? and bet for 10 BTC do you have balls ? Edit: some of us use something called Paper wallets for their long term investments, it proved to be more secure, you should try it, for 10 BTC I will take the hassle and go through the process of signing my address for you |
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Observing your charts from a distance makes it look like you are always right (of course hindsight makes that easy). Zooming in, it looks like if you use the indicator at the bottom, you are making the buy/sell very late (most of your arrows are not perpendicular, the bottom indicator lags the actual price movement). Considering trading fees, I can't imagine you are making enough money here to justify the risk for any of these positions. One wrong call will wipe out all of your profits from the previous multiple correct calls (even if you've called them perfectly).
that indicator is called MACD and no you don't have to wait for the cross over, because the cross can be predicted before it happens, when the 12 period AMA is above the 26 period AMA you sell and vice versa, of course this doesn't work all the time otherwise it would be so easy, this is why I said trading is an art, and I am not implying that I am a good trader, I've been ignorant so many times and I had bad calls so many times, but my average is positive... and BTW I don't trade daily, I wait for occasions when I think it is safe and clear for some profit, my post was just a reminder that this is the speculation thread, no need to attack other people, I saw him attacking other members and calling their moms names (only a teenagers does that)...... so you are missing my point here Your average is positive in fiat or bitcoins? Yeah, I didn't miss your point. I was more interested in the chart. I don't need a reminder that the internet is full of trolls! Bitcoin and I cashed some profits to be honest... |
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1day Moving Averages are crossing for a buy signal.
1hour Moving Averages are crossing for a sell signal.
We also crossed the 200Day EMA a couple of days back, which might be an indicator that the bear market is over.
to be honest, sometimes I think people doesn't even read previous posts, I am not implying that I know things but I am reminding you people this is the Speculation sub-forum dont be so offended with predictions...
Good morning there, I didn't sleep till 04:00 Europe time (GMT+1). and just woke up, watching Bitstamp now,so the price went up to 646 !!...how do we translate this? something worth mentioning is that the MACD is still negative: the 12 period AMA is above the 26 period AMA, there will be a cross over in few hours and the price may drop. only now it seems that a reversal is possible, the next drop will decide if we continue going down , or if there will be a rally up, of course the Gox situation will complicate things a little bit.. Lighten up, I saw your TA and thought I'd do a little of my own, I didn't even mention you. sorry, I didn't mean any disrespect |
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and BTW I don't trade daily, I wait for occasions when I think it is safe and clear for some profit, my posts was just a reminder that this is the speculation thread, no need to attack other people, I him attacking other members and calling his mom names (only teenagers does that)...... so you are missing my point here
The guy said we were going below 500 and we shot up like a rocket! If he wants to be a credit to his mother, he should have made the right call. You want etiquette or do you want accurate analysis? I know a shitload of poor people who are polite as hell. They have to be. did he give you an ETA ? nope I don't think so..... even though, how old are you anyway ? trashing members is something acceptable ? do you raise your kids (if you have any) this way ? |
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1day Moving Averages are crossing for a buy signal.
1hour Moving Averages are crossing for a sell signal.
We also crossed the 200Day EMA a couple of days back, which might be an indicator that the bear market is over.
to be honest, sometimes I think people doesn't even read previous posts, I am not implying that I know things but I am reminding you people this is the Speculation sub-forum dont be so offended with predictions...
Good morning there, I didn't sleep till 04:00 Europe time (GMT+1). and just woke up, watching Bitstamp now,so the price went up to 646 !!...how do we translate this? something worth mentioning is that the MACD is still negative: the 12 period AMA is above the 26 period AMA, there will be a cross over in few hours and the price may drop. only now it seems that a reversal is possible, the next drop will decide if we continue going down , or if there will be a rally up, of course the Gox situation will complicate things a little bit.. |
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These arrows aren't quite vertical. Makes it easier to predict the future in these conditions  also the buy bottoms and sell tops weren't accurate, just saying, I was explaining how trading works, nothing so technical there. |
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