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1281  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Lightning Network Observer on: May 08, 2023, 09:38:53 AM
Personally, I believe NFTs and BRC-20 should be those pushed out of the blockchain, but Binance's decision of enabling Lightning transactions is also a positive, and the only alternative for those users who don't like HODLing shitcoins.


When there is an incentive, we can resort to lightning network.
We had a record net opening of channels, and record of Lightning nodes.


Incentivization is what keeps everything in the network stick together. If truly Ordinals is an "attack", or if it's currently used as an "attack", then Bitcoin miners and Lightning node operators who collect routing fees are being incentivized by this "attack". Someone will lose money first before the Bitcoin network fails, IF it fails. Everything is working as it should be.
1282  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2023 Diff thread now opened. on: May 06, 2023, 02:31:15 PM

Biggest is only 192629 bytes - only 6 above 180000 bytes, so they must be mostly '1' address transactions, not NFTs


For now, I believe most Ordinals users have been efficient in making their transactions by paying only 1 to 3 SATs per byte, just as how Bitcoin should be if all of the participants in the network are rational.

Plus any theories why mining power has been reaching ATH every month for the year? Many people will say that "the miners follow the price". But I have another theory, "the miners are also speculators". Some miners are probably mining Bitcoin to currently HODL and wait for a better price?

Sure I do it all the time. I am a small commercial farmer maybe 160kwatts.


I mine multiple coins and hodl profits. At current prices the only way I spend BTC is buying new gear to grow the mine. Even though btc price is meh gear prices dropped. So using low priced btc to buy low priced ming gear is good.

If not hold the btc.


 Cool

That's bullish coming from a person who knows the idiosyncrasies of the Bitcoin ecosystem. Plus what do the large mining farm operators know that they would be prepared to invest more money to increase hashing power if it's not another surge for Bitcoin and the super cycle?

If the miners are mining and HODLing more, mere plebs should also start buying and HODLing more.

yeah

new jump soon

Quote
https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   788253  (23 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   98.4623%  (2014 / 2045.45 expected, 31.45 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   47887764338536.25                            
Current Difficulty:   48712405953118.43                            
Next Difficulty:   between 47976234808667 and 47976235522250
Next Difficulty Change:   between -1.5113% and -1.5113%
Previous Retarget:   April 20, 2023 at 5:52 AM  (+1.7220%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 11:06 AM  (in 0d 0h 20m 18s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 11:06 AM  (in 0d 0h 20m 18s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 5h 14m 50s and 14d 5h 14m 50s
Copy stats to clipboard



Shower-thought, what if there's a sanctioned country that drills/produces a lot of Crude Oil, but it can't export it, or it's forced to export it at a large discount "because sanctions", THEN it discovered the feasibility that it can use its Oil outputs to produce the electricity to mine Bitcoin themselves and sell them at a larger profit vs. if they merely exported it as Oil. Could that actually happen?

 Cool
1283  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: On Ordinals: Where do you stand? on: May 06, 2023, 02:14:46 PM
the thing is that the second setup transaction of 10ksat fee then pushes the average tx fee up if lots of idiots spam this scheme
you may have noticed this week the average fee's went from <$3 to >$9

Wasting money by denial-of-service... by no means, is that new to us at all. Wink It's going to cool down eventually, because blokes will either run out of money or realize that throwing away mountains of several million satoshis is literally throwing their money down a sinkhole never to return again.


But that's the "problem" with Ordinals, some of those being built, and communities formed, might be incentived to keep "spamming" the blockchain because some users found out that dick pics/fart sounds are valuable, and they could make profit from them. It's not a real problem by itself, but it's definitely an inconvenience for users who want to use Bitcoin for financial transactions.
1284  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: HODLing Bitcoin isn't merely an "investment" on: May 06, 2023, 11:45:26 AM
I saw a post made by someone in which he told his story about his investment in Bitcoin and how it helped him go through the financially challenging times that the COVID-19 pandemic brought. A good, heart-warming  story by a fellow Bitcoiner, BUT we shouldn't forget that simply HODLing/owning Bitcoin could also be a kind of political movement, because its features could make Bitcoin weaken or break down political strongholds.

It might be premature to call it a revolutionary movement, but what were the motivations of the early cypherpunks when they were building their tools? Satoshi's message in the Genesis Block is also political.

 Cool

There is a non-zero chance that the message encrypted in the genesis block is a regular timestamp with a headline from the first fresh newspaper Satoshi came across to document that the bitcoin network was launched no earlier than January 3, 2009.


What does that actually mean?

Quote

Of course, the early cypherpunk movement was thoroughly imbued with romantic rebellious spirit of protest against the existing financial system. But is it necessary to look for hidden political subtext here? If Cypherpunk is considered a political movement, then it is a political movement against politics, in a sense it is anti-politics, a protest against the dominant role of politics in our ordinary daily life. At least that's how I understand it.


I can't speak of their motivation, but the tools they built was to help users protect their privacy and help make said users be more anonymous online. That makes it easier to speak out, and to be in groups together without fear of the State spying on users or intervention.

Plus the point of that post is really just a mere shower-thought that because of how Bitcoin was technically designed, it makes it a tool that could weaken and break down political strongholds. We're probably helping the growth of a political movement by simply HODLing because HODLer growth = Community growth.
1285  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: On Ordinals: Where do you stand? on: May 06, 2023, 11:19:20 AM
I believe not. Nothing has been "distorted" because the users who want to pay more to use Bitcoin, are paying more because of the security assurances.  But I heard that using Ethereum is more expensive [...]
Well, you're of course right that Bitcoin and Ethereum are the safest blockchains, and in Ethereum the cost/security equation is worse, but I actually pointed to some Bitcoin-based alternatives which would be more accepted by even the "maxi" community (OP_RETURN based tokens, Taro ...).


I just want to be clear that POS is broken, selling broken security assumptions. Their core developers threw the best part of their network, the Proof Of Work.

Quote

But I believe the cause of the distortion is related neither with "security" nor "cost". The distorsion comes from the high prices the Ordinals fans mean to be able to reach with their speculative action. Even if only a tiny minority of early adopters will actually really earn money with these BRC-20 memecoins, a lot more think they could make it, and thus pay these enormous fees (Seriously, who wants to own a coin called "DICK", a 10-year-old kid? Is that really a "public" they should direct their marketing efforts to, so much money to make with kids?). Thus the high expected prices weaken the disuasive power high fees otherweise have.

Eventually the BRC-20 users will conclude that it's not worth anymore to transact that much with Ordinals derivatives, at least at this level. But they will have congested the network for weeks (maybe months) and that's not exactly good for other BTC use cases, it even may drive some businesses out of BTC.

This could happen again every year or so with another fad or hype, be it memecoins, NFTs, new kinds of DeFi, derivatives etc.. And Bitcoin with decentralized sidechains and a highly liquid LN would be better prepared to deal with that.


OK, it's "distorted" caused by many unsustainable ponzi schemes that operate in the Bitcoin network that's making fees surge temporarily? It's that the point you're making? What's the difference between that and the varying demand for onchain, censorship-resistant transactions? During months of high demand, should that also be considered "distorted" too?
1286  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: On Ordinals: Where do you stand? on: May 05, 2023, 02:55:13 PM
The problem I see here is: The whole Ordinals hype distorts the incentive structures.

Normally, for meme tokens you should go for the cheapest option (i.e. the one which uses the smallest amount of blockchain space). I think currently (if you really, really insist to use the BTC blockchain for that) that should be something Lightning-enabled like RGB or Taro. But BRC-20 is probably even less efficient with space than the oldest coloured coin protocols, like EPOBC.


I believe not. Nothing has been "distorted" because the users who want to pay more to use Bitcoin, are paying more because of the security assurances. But I heard that using Ethereum is more expensive and sometimes has fees that surge to $50.00 - $80.00 per transaction, and it has less security/settlement assurances. That's not "cheap", and a $50.00 transaction fee in Bitcoin is cheaper than a $50.00 fee in Ethereum.
1287  Economy / Economics / Re: Shrinkflation on: May 05, 2023, 02:26:12 PM
Very interesting. If I'm not mistaken Shrinkage is a fraudulent practice that can undermine consumer trust in a brand. While it can help a company maintain profit margins in the short term, it can ultimately lead to long-term losses as customers may seek alternatives.

To combat inflation, companies can explore various strategies such as increasing efficiency in the production process, negotiating better prices from suppliers, or finding alternative sources of raw materials. They may also consider offering products at different prices or offering discounts for bulk purchases. I think the solution for the win win solution is transparency is the key. Communicating openly with customers about price increases can help maintain trust and loyalty.


It's not that simple with the current situation. The inflation we're currently experiencing is "sticky". Plus to "combat inflation" is the Cental Bank's job because it's in their mandate to maintain price stability. What you're saying is to combat the effects of inflation, which really is a symptom that inflation is getting more uncontrollable. But in my opinion, with still too much money in the system, demand will remain to push prices up.

1288  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: HODLing Bitcoin isn't merely an "investment" on: May 05, 2023, 09:53:17 AM
The op has a good point, a point that is often forgotten. Indeed, holding Bitcoin can be a political choice, a choice not to trust traditional financial institutions and fiat currencies, regulated by authorities. And that can be done without expectations that Bitcoin will rise and merely because of the importance of supporting something that introduced unprecedented financial freedom, sort of like people give money to support a cause sometimes.

To those asking how it weakens strongholds, I believe that the act of holding Bitcoin is already a statement. A statement that I don't need a bank to store or send my money, and that I don't need an official fiat currency to store it in, either. This undermines the role of traditional institutions because it shows that they aren't as necessary as they want us to think they are.


It's not even a "choice", because by its technical design, it has already become political whether you, as the owner, accept it or not. You can choose to use it in any kind of purpose you want, but it will neither remove, nor change, what it truly is by its nature. Greed got me into Bitcoin, but learning more about it, and understanding what it currently is and what it could also be, I believe this "invention" belongs with those other great inventions that help move humanity forward technologically, socially and politically.
1289  Economy / Economics / Re: Shrinkflation on: May 05, 2023, 09:42:21 AM
Yeah I noticed this also. Basically when you go shopping you will notice two things

1) Products which cost 50% more

2) Products which cost 10-20% more but less quantity

Basically the bag is the same size except the label has indicated there is less contents inside. Very common with potato chips and cereal boxes.


Inflation is telling you to stop eating the junk food and go start living a more healthier life style. Hahaha. Cool

But that's where it actually starts. When the plebs like us start to notice that inflation is starting to take away more and more of our savings, that's when we budget our money more carefully. It helps lowering demand, and therefore also starts to help in lowering inflation. But there's a negative effect. A Recession. That's because business and services would also have lower profits and will be forced to get rid of a percentage of the company's employees, OR be creative = smaller amount of Potato Chips.

Simply, to defeat inflation there must be a recession. The Central Banks must cause a recession, through monetary tightening, as early as possible while the economy is still strong and while the consumers still have their savings. It will make the recovery faster.
1290  Economy / Economics / Re: Shrinkflation on: May 04, 2023, 10:48:01 AM
Quote
Shrinkflation is practice of reducing the size of a product while maintaining its sticker price.

I hate it when companies reduce quantity (and often quality too) of product to sell it at same price as before to combat inflation. Oh and don't forget those, "30% Extra" labels.

Inflation makes everything rise, so might as well keep the original quantity and just increase the price.

Do you agree? How would you combat inflation if you were running a company?


Because I'm only a consumer just like you, I also don't like it. But there's no other way a company can keep up with their monthly expenditures if the costs to produce their products are going up. They have no choice but to be more "creative" to reduce costs. A more obvious sign that a company is significantly affected by inflation is, employee down-sizing.
1291  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: HODLing Bitcoin isn't merely an "investment" on: May 04, 2023, 08:36:48 AM
Although I agree with the sentiment, I really think we should be pushing more of a 'you do you' kind of thing.
Possibly you want to hold, I want to trade, and that other person over there wants to get BTC so he can buy stuff.

We should be helping people do what they want with no preconceived notions.

Yes, we can point out the good / bad / ugly of what they may or may not want to do. But beyond that, it's their coin. Do with it as they want.

-Dave

Absolutely, a person can have the freedom to have his/her own Bitcoin lifestyle and have his/her own attitude/purpose. But I believe it's undeniable that Bitcoin will always be something political, because by its very nature, the way it was technically designed, its features have the ability to weaken and break down political strongholds and many people have not truly understood that. I believe Nayib Bukele did.

 Cool
1292  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: On Ordinals: Where do you stand? on: May 04, 2023, 08:20:09 AM
@The0xJuan on twitter has made a thread that explains what the BRC20 standard is and what are the potential uses of this in the cryptospace.
Source https://twitter.com/The0xJuan/status/1650970535570931712

All I see here is the same nonsense and technobabble used for years by the altcoin scammers to empty newbies' pockets. Each point here was debunked a million times before about the Ordinals Attack so I'll just list the headlines:
- There are no tokens being created
- There are no rules or standards being enforced that could be referred to as "BRC20 standard"
- Each bitcoin (and satoshis) are as fungible as before and they have not magically gained any additional value. If anybody is selling them for higher prices, they are scamming people.
- The junk data spammed on the chain can not move or be transferred to someone else.

Quote
The trick is leveraging JSON data in the form of Ordinal inscriptions.
It's funny when the idiots trying to sell the Ordinals Attack haven't even checked what the attack is doing Cheesy


This is not investment advice, but for traders, it might be a Golden Opportunity to participate in a little shitcoinery. Bitcoin transactions are surging, and probably are currently surging more than during the last bull market. This could be made into a narrative that Ordinals brought "utility" and more "growth" to the Bitcoin network, making Bitcoin-related Smart Contract Layer builders like Stacks' tokens also surge because "there's demand".
1293  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2023 Diff thread now opened. on: May 04, 2023, 05:46:45 AM

Biggest is only 192629 bytes - only 6 above 180000 bytes, so they must be mostly '1' address transactions, not NFTs


For now, I believe most Ordinals users have been efficient in making their transactions by paying only 1 to 3 SATs per byte, just as how Bitcoin should be if all of the participants in the network are rational.

Plus any theories why mining power has been reaching ATH every month for the year? Many people will say that "the miners follow the price". But I have another theory, "the miners are also speculators". Some miners are probably mining Bitcoin to currently HODL and wait for a better price?

Sure I do it all the time. I am a small commercial farmer maybe 160kwatts.


I mine multiple coins and hodl profits. At current prices the only way I spend BTC is buying new gear to grow the mine. Even though btc price is meh gear prices dropped. So using low priced btc to buy low priced ming gear is good.

If not hold the btc.


 Cool

That's bullish coming from a person who knows the idiosyncrasies of the Bitcoin ecosystem. Plus what do the large mining farm operators know that they would be prepared to invest more money to increase hashing power if it's not another surge for Bitcoin and the super cycle?

If the miners are mining and HODLing more, mere plebs should also start buying and HODLing more.
1294  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Why was Ordinal NFTs created? on: May 04, 2023, 05:35:20 AM
Just an observation: Now (in late April/early May 2023) the focus of the Ordinals community seems to have been directed to smaller inscriptions like BRC-20 tokens which could already have been achieved without Taproot because they're definitely below the 10K script size limit.

(BRC-20 tokens are basically tokens like those possible with Omni or Counterparty, only that they're using Ordinals to store a JSON text file Roll Eyes with the parameters of each token/transaction. I'm still wondering why they use that silly and ultra-inefficient approach).

Now these small inscriptions are causing fees to grow even more than the first big Ordinals wave in February/March. The reason is actually simple: storing a 50K picture with 10 sat/bytes is already expensive, but a small token transfer of no more than 300-400 bytes is perhaps even possible with 100 sat/bytes.

This could lead me to conclude that the bigger Inscription transactions aren't really the problem for the current blockchain bloat. The problem are periods of extremely high blockchain activity when some kind of "hype" is going on, regardless of the size of the individual transactions. And such a hype could have been already possible with pre-Taproot rules.

So I think the solution is not hard forking into a new limit. Instead sidechains should be made finally possible, because these could provide enough space to get rid of the problems when these "hypes" arise.

With Stacks providing already a relatively descentralized method for sidechains, why not fork Stacks and use a decentralized (non-premined) merged-mined token to power a sidechain supported explicitly by the Bitcoin community, to make transactions smooth again?

(PS: Reading the last posts, isn't this exactly your idea @Wind_FURY?)


My last post is actually only about continuing miner incentives when all of the coins are mined. philipma1957 believes that there might be a situation when fees alone might not be enough to incentivize miners. I merely suggested a "miner-chain" merged-mined with Bitcoin to continue paying the miners through block rewards.

Your suggestion, to push out Ordinals from the Bitcoin blockchain to the miner-chain, made it better. Everyone will get what they want.
1295  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2023 Diff thread now opened. on: May 03, 2023, 03:09:42 PM

Biggest is only 192629 bytes - only 6 above 180000 bytes, so they must be mostly '1' address transactions, not NFTs


For now, I believe most Ordinals users have been efficient in making their transactions by paying only 1 to 3 SATs per byte, just as how Bitcoin should be if all of the participants in the network are rational.

Plus any theories why mining power has been reaching ATH every month for the year? Many people will say that "the miners follow the price". But I have another theory, "the miners are also speculators". Some miners are probably mining Bitcoin to currently HODL and wait for a better price?
1296  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / HODLing Bitcoin isn't merely an "investment" on: May 03, 2023, 02:51:07 PM
I saw a post made by someone in which he told his story about his investment in Bitcoin and how it helped him go through the financially challenging times that the COVID-19 pandemic brought. A good, heart-warming  story by a fellow Bitcoiner, BUT we shouldn't forget that simply HODLing/owning Bitcoin could also be a kind of political movement, because its features could make Bitcoin weaken or break down political strongholds.

It might be premature to call it a revolutionary movement, but what were the motivations of the early cypherpunks when they were building their tools? Satoshi's message in the Genesis Block is also political.

 Cool
1297  Economy / Economics / Re: How will Fed bailing out banks increase inflation? on: May 03, 2023, 07:23:53 AM
In my country inflation are manipulated by adding or removing products or goods to the inflation basket that has minimal impact. The inflation statistics are a poor reflection of the true inflation in the country. Example : Vegetable Oil went up the most and it was removed from the inflation basket.  Roll Eyes

The Reserve Banks play "smoke & mirror" games with the money printing and inflation and citizens does not understand the long-term impact of those measures.   Angry


Haha, that's true! The devil is always in the details. In the United States' inflation data, there was a month when there was a reduction in inflation, I don't remember the month or if it was a month-on-month reduction or a year-on-year. But what it really was, there was one item in the inflation basket that had a very high reduction in price, I think 50%, which distorted the data. Do you know what that item was? Flowers. They prolly added it in the inflation basket after Valentine's Day.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯
1298  Economy / Economics / Re: How will Fed bailing out banks increase inflation? on: May 03, 2023, 05:33:39 AM

You might claim that inflation lags the money printing, but how long is that lag? How do you explain the low inflation rate for the 13 years between 2008 and 2021, even though the USD monetary base increased by 500%.


I explained it to you in the post just above this one but you chose to ignore it. Inflation measured as CPI is manipulated downwards by governments, and does not take into account asset inflation. To the supposed low inflation of those 13 years, add the inflation of assets like Real Estate, stock market and Bitcoin among others and you will see where the FED's money has gone.


I don't subscribe to the manipulated CPI conspiracy theory, but the asset inflation is a good point.


The effects are not instant. It could take months to years before a policy from the Federal Reserve/a Central Bank could take effect in the entire economy.

Asset inflation happened because the money newly printed goes to those entities who have first access to them. The government, the banks, the rich and wealthy. BUT do we really expect that all that printed money would never go down to the lower parts of the system, to the plebs? Inflation will happen sooner or later.
1299  Economy / Economics / Re: Food Crisis - Improved, Worsen or still the same in your country (No Change)? on: May 03, 2023, 05:18:33 AM
I don't know what you mean about food crisis other than price increases. Where I live at least there have been no shortages. In that sense the food crisis would fall under the global inflation crisis that was exacerbated by the Ukraine war but started before that due to massive printing and restrictive fossil fuel policies.


There have already been food crises in different parts of the world, but you're right, it's not that there's a new surging one that's currently happening. It's the same food crises that has been there many many years before, especially in parts of South Africa.

There's a narrative that's currently called "supply-side inflation". That's merely something the government made up to make everyone believe that they are not at fault for inflation. Everyone should remember that, Inflation has always been a monetary phenomenon. Research who said that. He is a great Economist.

Lacking in supply of commodities and services merely increases inflation temporarily because supply always comes back if there's demand. The inflation we're experiencing now is "sticky inflation" because the price never goes down. What is that? Because there's simply too much money in circulation.
1300  Economy / Economics / Re: BTC Silver and Gold on: May 02, 2023, 03:58:06 PM
In my opinion, dividing money into many types of investments is a safer and more profitable thing, if there is an investment that drops, we can still rely on others, and of course the biggest portion at the moment, in my opinion, is bitcoin, this is because of the short-term potential or less than a year from bitcoin is very good compared to gold and silver.


In the U.S., that's actually not a bad suggestion, BUT in the context of the possibility of a financial/currency crisis, HODL Bitcoin and something physical like Gold and Silver.

There are politicians who want go raise the government's debt ceiling to "pay for their debt". The truth is, they have never paid for their debt. They are already $31 TRILLION in debt, and it's only growing. They keep borrowing money printed for them by the Federal Reserve, and they want continue this death cycle without any concern for the future.
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