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1261  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Civil War on: May 12, 2023, 06:03:31 AM
But we're not talking about art. From a REAL developer's point of view, anything they build should be finding a better, more efficient solution in doing things, and BRC-20 "fungible" tokens, which truly are NOT fungible, are definitely NOT a better solution than what's currently available. Why are those developers forcing themselves to build their apps on something unreliable? What's their incentive?

I have no exact information about the intentions of the developers. However, it is highly likely that the desire to make money on the wave of hype with meme-tokens plays an important role. I don't really follow this shit, but I think there was a big story recently about a guy who bought Pepe's green frog tokens for $250 and soon made $8 million from it. Or something like that. In such conditions, development speed is much more important than quality, because it is important to catch the right moment.


Development speed" = merely riding the hype-wave while there are newbies and plebs who are willing to buy into their Ponzi?

Because scripting in Bitcoin is limited, and from a long term perspective, their "development" of "not-fungible tokens marketed as fungible" made through Ordinal inscriptions is already dead.

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This is the case when it is better to make a mistake at the right time than to do the right thing at the wrong time.


Like scammers?

 Cool
1262  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Civil War on: May 11, 2023, 03:10:53 PM
BUT, here's the problem for me, and it's more of trying to get in the developers' point of view when building apps for Ordinals. Why force themselves to develop something that doesn't make it more efficient and cheap to move or trade dick pics and fart sounds? Plus their BRC-20 solution is worse than Ethereum's ERC-20, why develop something that's worse? It doesn't make using it any cheaper.

Perhaps here I agree with you. How beautiful and elegant is the very idea of ordinals, which does not produce unnecessary entities, so as not to cause the anger of Occam with a razor, but only makes the implicit explicit. And just as shitty are these BRC-20 tokens, which are almost a direct insult and spit in the face. It's like when a teenager is first allowed to draw anything on a blank wall and he draws just the first thing that comes to his mind - boobs and a big dick. Did you expect to find Claude Monet's lilies there?

If we're going to stick with our censorship resistance strategy, we're going to have to open our mouths wide and eat this elephant whole, with a hundredweight of shit inside it. Because everyone has different tastes (and even coprophages also exist) and if we start trying to separate the more delicious from the less tasty, we will never come to a consensus that suits everyone. The wave of hype will subside and time itself will separate the assimilated and the rejected.


But we're not talking about art. From a REAL developer's point of view, anything they build should be finding a better, more efficient solution in doing things, and BRC-20 "fungible" tokens, which truly are NOT fungible, are definitely NOT a better solution than what's currently available. Why are those developers forcing themselves to build their apps on something unreliable? What's their incentive?
1263  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: How long the high transaction fees will last? on: May 11, 2023, 02:57:25 PM

Some people are calling it an "attack"? Thank the "attackers" for making Bitcoin more valuable from an economic perspective.


Im curious if this is really an attack like to fud on bitcoin but rather than an additional application of bitcoin through ordinals which is found by someone. However the utlity of those ordinals somehow vague and only for trading through their dapps. Unless someone could step up and make it more useful instead of an expensive jpeg.


The creation of Ordinals itself, and as is constructed by Casey Rodarmor, isn't an attack. The ability to store data somewhere in the Taproot input script was always there, also the same during pre-Taproot. There was always an ability to store data onchain. But what Ordinals could be, is an attack vector.

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Well still early maybe some satoshi like genius could fix the high rate fees and include those ordinals on bitcoin chain without affecting. I believe someone will solve this if not now maybe for quite sometime.


Real scaling? That would mean finding a way to make data that has to be processed by each node smaller and smaller, and therefore making what the network requires from full nodes lower and lower.
1264  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: How long the high transaction fees will last? on: May 11, 2023, 08:37:39 AM
Im afraid this will not go lower sooner or later, as long the main problem isn't solved or at least removed which i don't think it will possible in the next few months.

As for your problem, i'd better use another altcoin available temporarily for deposits to avoid higher fee and longer time of confirmation.


It will go lower. Demand has ALWAYS been variable, and users will either start waiting for cheaper fees to save their coins or simply run out of coins first if they continue paying for high fees.

 Cool

High fees might also be a blessing. It forces people with paper-hands to HODL while demand for Bitcoin goes higher. Who would pay exorbitant fee-rates unless there was high demand for block space. High demand for block space = high demand for Bitcoin to pay for fees = eventually higher price for Bitcoin.

Some people are calling it an "attack"? Thank the "attackers" for making Bitcoin more valuable from an economic perspective.
1265  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Civil War on: May 11, 2023, 08:20:22 AM
so how about you stop sucking up to them and realise their lame excuses to evade fixes is them not doing their role as maintainers of bitcoin security
The security of bitcoin is threatened only by a sharp reduction in the hashrate and nothing else. As long as the network hashrate grows or remains stable, then everything is fine with security. But any attempts at censorship can seriously threaten the future of bitcoin as a censorship-resistant system, and the developers are well aware of this, and therefore are inactive. This Pandora's box is not to be touched. If shitty pictures can bring the bitcoin network to its knees, then the place of this network is already in the dustbin of history.


It's because some people are turning it into a more ideological debate than a technical one. I personally don't like dick pics and fart sounds too, but if those transactions are following the consensus rules, and pay their fees to have there transactions mined in a block, how can we truly say they can't use the network.

BUT, here's the problem for me, and it's more of trying to get in the developers' point of view when building apps for Ordinals. Why force themselves to develop something that doesn't make it more efficient and cheap to move or trade dick pics and fart sounds? Plus their BRC-20 solution is worse than Ethereum's ERC-20, why develop something that's worse? It doesn't make using it any cheaper.
1266  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Civil War on: May 10, 2023, 12:45:21 PM

Will there be a fork? No.


If neither a soft fork, nor a hard fork is required, then in my opinion there won't be any "civil war". Everything will depend on what the Core Developers decide.

BUT if there's truly going to be a "civil war", then definitely it won't be against Ordinals users/supporters. Who will lose the most if Ordinals functions are undermined? I believe the miners will be in the other side of the "civil war".
1267  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: How long the high transaction fees will last? on: May 10, 2023, 08:35:45 AM
@OP I don't think the transaction fees will be cheap in very soon because there's no implementation yet to stop BRC-20 or maybe it's impossible to stop. I think the current fee will become a new normal, just like Ethereum network.

Or ask your favorite casino to accept deposits/withdrawals through the Lightning Network. I believe it's not just the best time to start asking, it has now become absolutely very necessary as a Bitcoin-only user.

Usually a casino is really slow to updating a new development, this because they're either focus to other sectors e.g. promotion, gambling provider etc. I can't remember which casino have adopt lightning network from someone in recommend it in this forum, I only know the casino was already accept lightning network from the beginning.


I believe they will have no choice. They either accept that they ignore their share of the Bitcoin user market, or implement Lightning as soon as possible. Because if some casinos decide that they won't onboard users through Lightning, there are other casinos that definitely will, THEN they get a bigger slice in the Bitcoin user market/become more competitive.
1268  Economy / Economics / Re: The precondition for knowing when the Federal Reserve stops raising rates on: May 10, 2023, 08:22:04 AM
The unemployment rate is not a condition, but rather one of the indicators. It is difficult to be effective in the fight against inflation with a low level of unemployment, because, experiencing a shortage of free personnel, enterprises are forced to fight for them by raising wages, and this, in turn, continues to spin the flywheel of inflationary expectations. So yes, you're right - as long as US unemployment remains low, you can continue to expect interest rates to rise or stay the same until enough businesses fail or go through massive layoffs.

You are correct that unemployment rate is an indicator which reflects the overall health of economy, how lower unemployment rate rate can directly impact inflation as it can create upwards pressure on wages as employers complete for a smaller pools of available workers.


Someone has been learning! You're just one of the very few in the forum who truly got the concept. The majority of people have been gaslighted by the misinformation and gaslighting being spread in the media.

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Inflation is a complex economic phenomenon, that can be influenced by many factors, but I think oil price play main role in its escalation. therefore, if oil prices were start to falling significantly, it could potentially ease inflationary pressure and lead to a pause in interest rates increase.


It's a MONETARY phenomenon. The "supply side inflation" narrative doesn't explain why inflation is sticky. Simple good sense will tell us that if there's too much money in circulation = more demand.
1269  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: On Ordinals: Where do you stand? on: May 10, 2023, 06:26:26 AM
Remember when Bitcoin could still be used to pay and be paid with? Those were the days...

I'm afraid those days are over. With Bitcoin getting spammed like crazy with Ordinals transactions, fees will only get worse over time. Not even the LN will do any help (it requires an on-chain TX to open/close a channel, after all). Either the majortiy pays a low fee, or developers increase on-chain TX capacity to solve this dilemma.


Ser, with all due respect, that won't solve the problem. Because increasing the block size limit will just make the attack vector through Ordinals bigger. You know what they will do? Inscribe high definition videos of their dicks and doing farts, instead of just static dick pics and fart sounds.

 Cool

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Until then, we'll have no choice but to pay a high fee for each BTC transaction. There always the option of using an alternative cryptocurrency with low fees such as LTC and TRX. The NFT hype won't last forever, so BTC network fees should decline sooner or later. Just my opinion Smiley


Or the Lightning Network for those people like us who want to use Bitcoin.
1270  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: NFTs in the Bitcoin blockchain - Ordinal Theory on: May 09, 2023, 12:09:46 PM
Came across an archive with all of Satoshi's posts here in the Forum and one is from Jan 2010 in response to a question asked. The thread deals with what has now become known as ordinals...
Replies 10-12 fit in quite well...
Apparently Satoshi had never read page 35 of the Standards for efficient cryptography, SEC 1: Elliptic Curve Cryptography published on 2009 on Symmetric Encryption Schemes before writing this wrong reply Tongue
Unfortunately, ECDSA can only sign signatures, it can't encrypt messages

Post #15 is a better fit response to the Ordinals Attack (slightly modified below)
It could use a separate infrastructure to pass messages, maybe just put a hash of the message in the transaction to prove that the transaction is for the order described in the message.

I.E. Side Chain.


I.E. Blockstream's Liquid Network.

I'm very confused why they're forcing themselves to use the Bitcoin blockchain, with its inefficiencies, and inconveniences for NFTs and their BRC-20 tokens. Tokens which are also forced to be NOT truly fungible, NOT divisible, and NOT trustless because Bitcoin itself is very limited for what they want to build. UNLESS, Ordinals is being used as an attack vector.

The name Casey Rodarmor will always be remembered everytime Ordinals is being used as an attack vector. The unlucky guy to have discovered and introduce the Taproot feature.
1271  Economy / Economics / Re: The precondition for knowing when the Federal Reserve stops raising rates on: May 09, 2023, 08:43:21 AM
High unemployment. I'm talking about high unemployment in the United States, and a recession there has always caused a contagion across the world.

It's not merely an opinion that the reason why Jerome Powell can't stop raising rates because of "sticky inflation", and "sticky inflation" will only go down if consumer demand goes down. But how does it go down? It will only go down if people lose their jobs, symptom of a recession. BUT unemployment is still very low, which means Jerome Powell will keep raising rates until there isn't enough money in circulation for companies to pay the wage-earners their salaries.

The unemployment rate is not a condition, but rather one of the indicators. It is difficult to be effective in the fight against inflation with a low level of unemployment, because, experiencing a shortage of free personnel, enterprises are forced to fight for them by raising wages, and this, in turn, continues to spin the flywheel of inflationary expectations. So yes, you're right - as long as US unemployment remains low, you can continue to expect interest rates to rise or stay the same until enough businesses fail or go through massive layoffs.


But it's the primary indicator, and it's actually common sense, and it's the reason why the Federal Reserve is tightening the money supply. The other two posters don't get it, but I'm very confident they will when everything starts to unwind.

The Federal Reserve won't say it out loud in public, but what do rate hikes' actually do? Kill demand and it cannot be achieved without a high unemployment rate.

Check these charts. Teal = Fed Funds Rate, Orange = CPI, Blue = Unemployment Level.

Observe that after the Federal Reserve's rate hikes, high unemployment peak followed a year at least later. It happened during Volker's time during 1983 and Bernake's time during 2009/2010. Powell's time is coming, let's observe what happens for the rest of 2023.







1272  Economy / Economics / The precondition for knowing when the Federal Reserve stops raising rates on: May 09, 2023, 05:57:39 AM
High unemployment. I'm talking about high unemployment in the United States, and a recession there has always caused a contagion across the world.

It's not merely an opinion that the reason why Jerome Powell can't stop raising rates because of "sticky inflation", and "sticky inflation" will only go down if consumer demand goes down. But how does it go down? It will only go down if people lose their jobs, symptom of a recession. BUT unemployment is still very low, which means Jerome Powell will keep raising rates until there isn't enough money in circulation for companies to pay the wage-earners their salaries.

Quote

Teal = Fed Funds Rate, Orange = CPI, Blue = Unemployment Level.

Observe that after the Federal Reserve's rate hikes, high unemployment peak followed a year at least later. It happened during Volker's time during 1983 and Bernake's time during 2009/2010. Powell's time is coming, let's observe what happens for the rest of 2023.







1273  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: On Ordinals: Where do you stand? on: May 09, 2023, 05:43:31 AM
But that's the "problem" with Ordinals, some of those being built, and communities formed, might be incentived to keep "spamming" the blockchain because some users found out that dick pics/fart sounds are valuable, and they could make profit from them. It's not a real problem by itself, but it's definitely an inconvenience for users who want to use Bitcoin for financial transactions.

For a user who sends a dick pics or fart sound hoping to make a profit, this is also a financial transaction. And he paid the current actual price for its inclusion in the blockchain. This use case of the bitcoin network seems unusual to you, but this does not make it wrong. Don't worry, bitcoin has already proven itself anti-fragile enough not to break at the sound of a fart.


It doesn't change the fact that it has become very inconvenient for the rest of the participants. Because they merely wanted to make a profit? Blockstream's Liquid Network is better for what they're trying to do because it will give them lower fees, and a higher transaction throughput. More savings = more profit.

But it's not their fault, they simply don't know. I believe Blockstream should start marketing and let developers and users know that they can also build their network of dick pics in Liquid. It's probably the same situation when developers built Ethereum off-chain layers which has seen increased usage.

I think it is useless to appeal to the voice of reason when there are an abnormally large number of idiots in the market (in the sense of non-professional players). This seems to be a sure sign that we are now in the vicinity of the local maximum of the bitcoin market price and a crushing collapse will soon follow. Please do not take this as investment advice.

The good news is that after the crash, fee prices will be low again, without any soft fork.


It's not an appeal. It's merely economics and market efficiency. It's either they run out of money first before finding better solutions, or find the solution before they run out of money. Because from a technical standpoint, "BRC-20" is a stupid solution to having "fungible tokens". Use Liquid, or Counterparty.

Also how about sheer financial incentive? Right now there are blocks being mined with fee rewards per block that are higher than the 6.25 fixed block reward. While I doubt it's sustainable long-term

those fee's are not really from that many independent individuals . they are the same groups as the mining pool managers. basically making high fee's to pay themselves back.. thus not much loss is incurred when producing high fee transactions becasue they are the sender and receiver of fee's

Not sure I follow your point here. It seems that most of the high transaction fees are from "BRC20" inscriptions

no

the 'first sat' spam (ordinal v1) caused fee mania in february
the memes spam (ordinal v2) took up alot of data and fee mania in march
the brc json (ordinal v3) spam is only about 60bytes, yet caused fee mania in april due to just alot of tx's, not alot of content



The BRC-MEME is confusing. How do users validate their BRC-20 token balance? Get information from an off-chain indexer, a third party, that's running the software that read and interpret the data? Merely running a Bitcoin node won't do it?

Or what if I want to buy 100 BRC-20 tokens but the available amounts are 10, 50, 200, 500? It's a very laughable system.
1274  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: On Ordinals: Where do you stand? on: May 08, 2023, 11:41:55 AM
But that's the "problem" with Ordinals, some of those being built, and communities formed, might be incentived to keep "spamming" the blockchain because some users found out that dick pics/fart sounds are valuable, and they could make profit from them. It's not a real problem by itself, but it's definitely an inconvenience for users who want to use Bitcoin for financial transactions.

For a user who sends a dick pics or fart sound hoping to make a profit, this is also a financial transaction. And he paid the current actual price for its inclusion in the blockchain. This use case of the bitcoin network seems unusual to you, but this does not make it wrong. Don't worry, bitcoin has already proven itself anti-fragile enough not to break at the sound of a fart.


It doesn't change the fact that it has become very inconvenient for the rest of the participants. Because they merely wanted to make a profit? Blockstream's Liquid Network is better for what they're trying to do because it will give them lower fees, and a higher transaction throughput. More savings = more profit.

But it's not their fault, they simply don't know. I believe Blockstream should start marketing and let developers and users know that they can also build their network of dick pics in Liquid. It's probably the same situation when developers built Ethereum off-chain layers which has seen increased usage.
1275  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: How long the high transaction fees will last? on: May 08, 2023, 11:12:25 AM
I guess all I can advise you is don't make penny bets if you don't have the funds in the casino for them. You don't want to be paying crazy amounts in fees that will wipe away penny winnings.


Or ask your favorite casino to accept deposits/withdrawals through the Lightning Network. I believe it's not just the best time to start asking, it has now become absolutely very necessary as a Bitcoin-only user.

Nobody knows when the mempool will be less congested. Better do not deposit bitcoin for now on betting sites, you need to also consider how high the withdrawal fee can be on custodial platforms. There are altcoins that you can use instead for now.


The network will be congested as long as the "Ordinals thing" market maintains its incentivization flywheel with new money coming in the system, making it profitable for its participants just like a Ponzi Scheme.
1276  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: The Lightning Network FAQ on: May 08, 2023, 09:59:36 AM
Based on the latest development, "what's currently the easiest way to install a Lightning Node", and other questions about Lightning will probably be one of the most asked questions in Bitcoin Stack Exchange. The "Ordinals thing" may have started a incentivization flywheel which will be spreading across the network.

Plus isn't Blockstream's Liquid Network built for something like the "Ordinals thing"?

This might be good for non-technical people who want to try actually using Lightning, https://lightning.engineering/posts/2023-04-26-litd-release/

It's also probably good for fee generation with their "One Node for Many Users" feature.

There's also this very practical feature.

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With zero confirmation functionality, Pool users can now purchase or sell Lightning Network channels without the need for on-chain confirmations. A Lightning business, or Lightning service provider (LSP), can purchase inbound and outbound zero-conf channels for a user to give them the ability to send payments over the Lightning Network in a fully non-custodial manner, without requiring the end user to understand Lightning liquidity.


This is only for LND users or Core Lightning users can also try it?


I think just for LND. The technical documentation mentions only LND in "get started", https://docs.lightning.engineering/lightning-network-tools/lightning-terminal/get-lit

1277  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Lightning Network Observer on: May 08, 2023, 09:38:53 AM
Personally, I believe NFTs and BRC-20 should be those pushed out of the blockchain, but Binance's decision of enabling Lightning transactions is also a positive, and the only alternative for those users who don't like HODLing shitcoins.


When there is an incentive, we can resort to lightning network.
We had a record net opening of channels, and record of Lightning nodes.


Incentivization is what keeps everything in the network stick together. If truly Ordinals is an "attack", or if it's currently used as an "attack", then Bitcoin miners and Lightning node operators who collect routing fees are being incentivized by this "attack". Someone will lose money first before the Bitcoin network fails, IF it fails. Everything is working as it should be.
1278  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2023 Diff thread now opened. on: May 06, 2023, 02:31:15 PM

Biggest is only 192629 bytes - only 6 above 180000 bytes, so they must be mostly '1' address transactions, not NFTs


For now, I believe most Ordinals users have been efficient in making their transactions by paying only 1 to 3 SATs per byte, just as how Bitcoin should be if all of the participants in the network are rational.

Plus any theories why mining power has been reaching ATH every month for the year? Many people will say that "the miners follow the price". But I have another theory, "the miners are also speculators". Some miners are probably mining Bitcoin to currently HODL and wait for a better price?

Sure I do it all the time. I am a small commercial farmer maybe 160kwatts.


I mine multiple coins and hodl profits. At current prices the only way I spend BTC is buying new gear to grow the mine. Even though btc price is meh gear prices dropped. So using low priced btc to buy low priced ming gear is good.

If not hold the btc.


 Cool

That's bullish coming from a person who knows the idiosyncrasies of the Bitcoin ecosystem. Plus what do the large mining farm operators know that they would be prepared to invest more money to increase hashing power if it's not another surge for Bitcoin and the super cycle?

If the miners are mining and HODLing more, mere plebs should also start buying and HODLing more.

yeah

new jump soon

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https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   788253  (23 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   98.4623%  (2014 / 2045.45 expected, 31.45 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   47887764338536.25                            
Current Difficulty:   48712405953118.43                            
Next Difficulty:   between 47976234808667 and 47976235522250
Next Difficulty Change:   between -1.5113% and -1.5113%
Previous Retarget:   April 20, 2023 at 5:52 AM  (+1.7220%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 11:06 AM  (in 0d 0h 20m 18s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 11:06 AM  (in 0d 0h 20m 18s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 5h 14m 50s and 14d 5h 14m 50s
Copy stats to clipboard



Shower-thought, what if there's a sanctioned country that drills/produces a lot of Crude Oil, but it can't export it, or it's forced to export it at a large discount "because sanctions", THEN it discovered the feasibility that it can use its Oil outputs to produce the electricity to mine Bitcoin themselves and sell them at a larger profit vs. if they merely exported it as Oil. Could that actually happen?

 Cool
1279  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: On Ordinals: Where do you stand? on: May 06, 2023, 02:14:46 PM
the thing is that the second setup transaction of 10ksat fee then pushes the average tx fee up if lots of idiots spam this scheme
you may have noticed this week the average fee's went from <$3 to >$9

Wasting money by denial-of-service... by no means, is that new to us at all. Wink It's going to cool down eventually, because blokes will either run out of money or realize that throwing away mountains of several million satoshis is literally throwing their money down a sinkhole never to return again.


But that's the "problem" with Ordinals, some of those being built, and communities formed, might be incentived to keep "spamming" the blockchain because some users found out that dick pics/fart sounds are valuable, and they could make profit from them. It's not a real problem by itself, but it's definitely an inconvenience for users who want to use Bitcoin for financial transactions.
1280  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: HODLing Bitcoin isn't merely an "investment" on: May 06, 2023, 11:45:26 AM
I saw a post made by someone in which he told his story about his investment in Bitcoin and how it helped him go through the financially challenging times that the COVID-19 pandemic brought. A good, heart-warming  story by a fellow Bitcoiner, BUT we shouldn't forget that simply HODLing/owning Bitcoin could also be a kind of political movement, because its features could make Bitcoin weaken or break down political strongholds.

It might be premature to call it a revolutionary movement, but what were the motivations of the early cypherpunks when they were building their tools? Satoshi's message in the Genesis Block is also political.

 Cool

There is a non-zero chance that the message encrypted in the genesis block is a regular timestamp with a headline from the first fresh newspaper Satoshi came across to document that the bitcoin network was launched no earlier than January 3, 2009.


What does that actually mean?

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Of course, the early cypherpunk movement was thoroughly imbued with romantic rebellious spirit of protest against the existing financial system. But is it necessary to look for hidden political subtext here? If Cypherpunk is considered a political movement, then it is a political movement against politics, in a sense it is anti-politics, a protest against the dominant role of politics in our ordinary daily life. At least that's how I understand it.


I can't speak of their motivation, but the tools they built was to help users protect their privacy and help make said users be more anonymous online. That makes it easier to speak out, and to be in groups together without fear of the State spying on users or intervention.

Plus the point of that post is really just a mere shower-thought that because of how Bitcoin was technically designed, it makes it a tool that could weaken and break down political strongholds. We're probably helping the growth of a political movement by simply HODLing because HODLer growth = Community growth.
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