Martin Armstrong Discussion

[jehst]

Are Singapore and South Korea considered emerging markets?

[OROBTC]

...

valiz wrote:

And quit reading that funny RThedge blog  

Nice!  My LOL of the morning.  Very good, sir!  Zero Hedge has gone downhill since taken over by St. Petersburg and anti-Semites.

[trollercoaster]

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2015/09/vw-volkswagen-lawsuits-emissions-scandal/407800/

http://news.com.au/national/volkswagen-to-recall-approximately-90000-cars-in-australia-across-vw-audi-and-skoda-brands/story-fncynjr2-1227560857595

[OROBTC]

...

troller

Yep, VW and even the rest of Germany are in trouble, Armstrong piece today:

"German Industrial Production Collapses by 4%":

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/37844

*   *   *

Armstrong today also writes a short piece paralleling what our "TPTB" has written re liquid dollar assets doing well at least for now.

"Central Banks Selling U.S. Treasuries As Fight Over Debt Looms"

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/37873

Quote from Armstrong re our politicians and (I presume Treasuries) going to new highs:

"These people we call “representatives” only represent themselves and they have no solution to this Sovereign Debt Crisis. It certainly looks like we will be seeing that blast to new highs next year."

[Nami]

...

Martin Armstrong is a financial, well, forecaster might be the right term, who has written extensively on historical patterns of economics.

He has a checkered past (I know that he went to jail for contempt of court, but what I have read it seems that was an injustice), but there is no doubt that he has introduced new concepts for us to read and analyze.  While in jail, he produced a number of interesting papers looking at asset prices through history, including from ANCIENT history.  He is one of the few who looks at cyclicality (time patterns) as well as a MACRO view of the markets (that is, he does not look at the price of gold alone, he looks at everything else too -- with a supercomputer).

He is now out of jail and has set-up shop as a macro-consulting company.  On most days (including today, Saturday) he publishes a few easy-to-digest items looking at various issues of the day.  His blog:

http://armstrongeconomics.com/armstrong_economics_blog

What finally moved me today to start this thread is his post was his very interesting piece (from today) "Money -- Credit -- Debt & Derivatives".  It looks like derivatives are as old as money itself (maybe older!), take a look at the article:

http://armstrongeconomics.com/archives/31401

*   *   *

I have been in various threads here at the forum where Armstrong's material has come up.

I look forward to reading your views on his ideas, and his proposed solutions (also controversial).

Must have been really strong to fight for what he believes in, its great actually only few have this courage to stand for what they believe in.
And his theory will somehow be helpful today and in the future.

[tabnloz]

...

troller

Yep, VW and even the rest of Germany are in trouble, Armstrong piece today:

"German Industrial Production Collapses by 4%":

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/37844

*   *   *

Armstrong today also writes a short piece paralleling what our "TPTB" has written re liquid dollar assets doing well at least for now.

"Central Banks Selling U.S. Treasuries As Fight Over Debt Looms"

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/37873

Quote from Armstrong re our politicians and (I presume Treasuries) going to new highs:

"These people we call “representatives” only represent themselves and they have no solution to this Sovereign Debt Crisis. It certainly looks like we will be seeing that blast to new highs next year."

On top of this, Deutsche Bank reporting a 6.8bn Euro loss.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-07/first-crack-deutsche-bank-preannounces-massive-loss-may-cut-dividend

[TPTB_need_war]

"It's raining in some of the commodity-based economies."
http://money.cnn.com/2015/09/30/investing/saudi-arabia-oil-cash-crunch/

I posit the start of war means the financial aspects are getting so bleak that more aggressive measures have to be risked. This theory ties the Russian bombing to the financial icebergs which have defaulted but they are hiding from us.

Although I have strong suspicions that the general plans for the current outcomes were pre-planned by the global elite as part of the chaos needed to bring about a world government, if one prefers a non-planned explanation then the Minsky Moment is a candidate.

I think we can all now conclude that Armstrongs Oct 1 turn date has proven to be true. The world has gone to hell in a very short period of time centered around this turn date, with the key marker of Russia starting to bomb the USA funded rebels exactly on the turn date.

I don't feel I need to convince any more people. Those who want to know have the proof now in front of their eyes. Those who want to cover their eyes and close their minds with nonsense are certainly free to do so. Who am I to argue with them. Go ahead folks. Choose.

[smooth]

Although I have strong suspicions that the general plans for the current outcomes were pre-planned by the global elite as part of the chaos needed to bring about a world government, if one prefers a non-planned explanation then the Minsky Moment is a candidate.

Now you are talking. Kudos on the nod to objectivity.

I think we can all now conclude that Armstrongs Oct 1 turn date has proven to be true. The world has gone to hell in a very short period of time centered around this turn date, with the key marker of Russia starting to bomb the USA funded rebels exactly on the turn date.

Leaning toward agreement. There is a lot of crazy shit going down right now. Politically, wars, migration, markets, commodities, capital outflows, economics, etc. Also don't forget the huge downward revision in US jobs (important indicator of the economy) that was announced on October 2. Of course that is backward looking data but it is clear the downward break has happened sometime around the end of Q2 into Q3 2015.

EDIT: It is still possible this "big turn" turns out to be a dud, if many of these major sources of instability end up becoming less serious on their own or are easily resolved. We'll have to see.

[tabnloz]

Mike Maloney on the Bernanke Bust

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Ksc2WJoXpg

There may be something funny going on behind the scenes that the Fed is throwing hundreds of billions at.

[bitcodo]

I do believe in Armstrong cycles, as everything around us is in cycles. It is also obviously that situation is serious and can escalated quickly. I agree war is because of financial shit. I just focused on oil and Middle east. What ever I look at, I end up there. For instance http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-23/qatar-wealth-fund-may-have-lost-billions-on-vw-glencore-stakes

[TPTB_need_war]

Even though Martin A. Armstrong has a dishonorable past

Martin A. Armstrong's contribution to economics and his economic predictions made him a person of great influence.  However, his criminal conviction somewhat overshadowed his achievements.

Do you not feel any shame for lying.

http://armstrongeconomics-wp.s3.amazonaws.com/2015/10/The-solution-to-unsustainable-debts-will-never-come%C2%BB-_-The-Journal-of-Journalists.pdf

There is even an economist. The American Martin Armstrong managed to become a
millionaire at 15, to find a model that predicts the global economic crises and get into
prison for 12 years without trial ever.

How can someone be convicted when they never had a trial.

How can someone that does a plea bargain after being held in jail for 12 years without a trial be considered guilty of crime he says he never did. He has presented all the evidence on his blogs.

[smooth]

TPTB his guilty plea counts as a conviction. You don't need a trial to be convicted.

Dishonorable is subjective though. If you think the charges were bullshit then there is nothing dishonorable about being (wrongly) convicted of them.

[TPTB_need_war]

TPTB his guilty plea counts as a conviction. You don't need a trial to be convicted.

Nope. You can't be convicted if you are prevented from having a trial for 12 years while held illegally without a trial for 12 years.

A confession under duress is not legally binding.

Actually he didn't even confess, he read a statement that he was forced to read, but he read in such a way as to not incriminate himself nor absolve his protection of his innocence under the law and constitution. Any way, why should I go into all the details for a know-it-all like you. You can do your own research or continue to foam errors out of your mouth. I don't fucking care.

You can play all the games you want with definitions, while lying to yourself about the facts. Doing this just to try to discredit me thus means you shed your respect for yourself just to stoop to low-life trolling. I am losing respect for you.

And smooth you are just fighting me to fight me because I embarrassed the shit out of you in the other thread today. But it was you who dragged yourself into those numerous errors by going on and on trying to force a logic where there wasn't any. Why don't you think before you type.

Piss off with your obnoxious behavior.

[americanpegasus]

Didn't know Armstrong went to jail.  From Wikipedia: 
 

In 1999, Japanese fraud investigators determined that Armstrong had been collecting money from Japanese investors, improperly "commingling" these funds with funds from other investors, and using the fresh money to cover losses he had incurred while trading.  Assisting Armstrong in his scheme was the Republic New York Bank, which produced false account statements to reassure Armstrong's investors. In 2001, the bank agreed to pay $606 million as restitution for its part in the scandal. 

Armstrong was indicted in 1999, and was ordered by judge Richard Owen to turn over a number of gold bars, computers, and antiquities that had been bought with the fund's money; the list included bronze helmets and a bust of Julius Caesar.  Armstrong produced some of the items, but claimed the others were not in his possession; this led to several contempt of court charges.  Armstrong was jailed for seven years for contempt of court, until judge Owen was removed from the case and Armstrong reached a plea agreement with federal prosecutors.  Armstrong pleaded guilty to conspiracy and was sentenced to five years in prison. 

 
 
I have to say that's pretty fucked up that because one man thought he was lying he was jailed for seven years.  That is a pretty severe miscarriage of justice; did he have a jury trial for his contempt of court charges?  Maybe he was lying, but still - the legal system should not allow one man (no matter how trusted) to put another man in jail just because he thinks he's guilty. 
 
On the other hand, it does sound like he was guilty of running a successful pyramid scheme in the late 90's, though I don't think a 12 year prison sentence was warranted (that's nearly a murder sentence). 
 
Still, I'm sure he's hard at work now that he's out collecting as much crypto as possible for the inevitable.

[TPTB_need_war]

http://www.contra-magazin.com/2015/05/china-ein-krieg-mit-den-usa-ist-unvermeidlich/

"If it is the US stance that China has to stop its activities, then an American-Chinese war in the South China Sea is inevitable", reported the "The Global Times", an influential Chinese newspaper owned by the ruling Communist Party is, in today's editorial. "The intensity of the conflict will be higher than what people normally refer to as 'stress'," said the commentator on.

However, an attempt to hand over the sheet to Washington in Beijing, so that the future development is in the hands of the Americans: "We do not want a military conflict with the United States, but if he comes, then we have to accept that." This shows China that it only wants to know safeguarded their own regional interests, while the US global meddling in the internal affairs of other countries.

Beijing himself stressed last week that it "very dissatisfied" with respect to the flight of an American spy plane in the region was that ignored the warnings of the Chinese navy studiously. Washington itself does not recognize Chinese sovereignty in the disputed territories and makes itself - far away US territory - their own territory claims.

[americanpegasus]

And smooth you are just fighting me to fight me because I embarrassed the shit out of you in the other thread today. But it was you who dragged yourself into those numerous errors by going on and on trying to force a logic where there wasn't any. Why don't you think before you type.

Piss off with your obnoxious behavior.

 
  
Easy man.  The cool head always prevails, even when it doesn't.

[smooth]

TPTB his guilty plea counts as a conviction. You don't need a trial to be convicted.

Nope. You can't be convicted if you are prevented from having a trial for 12 years yet held illegally without a trial for 12 years.

That's incorrect. He was held in civil contempt for seven years, then pled guilty (i.e. convicted), and then was sentenced to 5 years in prison for that conviction. In the transcript of his plea hearing he was told he could still plead not guilty and get a trial (in fact he even had a trial date):



https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/58/Armstrong_guilty_plea.pdf

Was it fair? Quite possibly not, but he does have a criminal conviction on his record. That is a fact.

[TPTB_need_war]

TPTB his guilty plea counts as a conviction. You don't need a trial to be convicted.

Nope. You can't be convicted if you are prevented from having a trial for 12 years yet held illegally without a trial for 12 years.

That's incorrect. He was held in civil contempt for seven years, then pled guilty (i.e. convicted), and then was sentenced to 5 years in prison for that conviction.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/58/Armstrong_guilty_plea.pdf

Was it fair? Quite possibly not, but he does have a conviction. That is a fact.

Smooth I refuted all this shit once before in great detail as AnonyMint. You are not going to go force me to show how ignorant you are again.

Search my archives.

Stop stealing my time.

A confession or plea under duress is not legally binding.

There are many more details and I am not going to spoon feed you. You are splattering your ignorance all over the place.

You think quoting a transcript from a court that was shown to be altering transcripts proves anything. You quote something out of context of the law about duress.

You are not an attorney. You are ignorant.

[smooth]

You are arguing that he was wrongly convicted. That's nice but he was still convinced. Has the conviction been thrown out? If not, then he stands convicted with a criminal record. The previous poster on the thread was correct (at least as to the conviction; again, whether it is dishonorable is another matter).

Furthermore your quoted passage about him not having a trial was a complete non-sequteur. He pled guilty, despite having the option of a trial for which there was already a date set.

Sorry, the guy is smart and insightful, but he's also convicted criminal. (But who knows depending on your point of view maybe that is a badge of honor!) It does not good to try to spin it any other way.

[americanpegasus]

Smooth I refuted all this shit once before in great detail as AnonyMint. You are not going to go force me to show how ignorant you are again.

Search my archives.

Stop stealing my time.

 
  
Wait, what is there to refute?  Clearly the man has a convinction.  Even smooth recognizes that perhaps it's not warranted, and perhaps justice was not served.  But it's a stone cold fact that he served 7 years for contempt of court, then pleaded guilty and served another 5.  
  
You may argue that the guilty plea was bullshit because it was coerced and I would have to agree: if Armstrong hadn't of "admitted to being a witch" and taken his lashes then he still might be in prison for no good reason.  But he reasoned (correctly) that the best course of action was to give the inquisitors what they wanted: a guilty plea.  Lucky, we live in an age where a gross miscarriage of justice carries a five year prison sentence, not being burned at the stake.  
  
The man has a conviction and yet is still a pretty damn impressive genius.  You can argue all day about whether the conviction was warranted (and I'll agree that the public interest was not served by his sentences) but you shouldn't argue whether the conviction exists.  The legal system is not perfect; sometimes 19 year old boys get put on sex offender registries the rest of their life because they have sex with 17 year old girls.  Sometimes people who commit minor financial infractions do way more time in prison than is warranted. 
 
Our legal system has major and definite flaws, but we are still orders of magnitude better than some nations (like the middle east).  It's getting better, slowly with time, but there will still be casualties along the way.  Armstrong was one such casualty. 
 
If he was found to have been running a major pyramid scheme then he should have done some time in a minimum security prison: not 12 years, but some.  He also should have had to turn over a majority of the assets collected in such a scheme (but not all).  We're getting better to an ideal judicial system: hopefully the next major form of government will be even more resistant to corruption and whims of personal ego on the part of the "watchers".