Martin Armstrong Discussion

[TPTB_need_war]

"Refusal to Publish Research that Shows Anti Man-Made Climate Change"

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/37998

With a great comment on the Academics refusing to publish anything going against their pet theories.

You didn't draw attention to the most important point in that blog post, which every Martin Armstrong doubter should be aware of:

Then there was a book known as “Historia Augusta”. The academics declared it a fraud written by a monk around 600 AD because it listed a number of Roman emperors during the crash of the 3rd century that they had never heard of. Then two coins were discovered in Egypt of Saturninus who happened to be one of these names mentioned in “Historia Augusta”. Once again, this coin (one in our collection, the other in the Louve) established the authenticity of “Historia Augusta” against the academics.

That reinforces what I wrote up thread:

suda, damn it, Armstrong spent $1 billion (inflation adjusted dollars) collecting archives of data. His model is accurate before no one else had ever spent that much on collecting vast data. The Pi correlation was discovered from the data, not chosen arbitrarily.

I should also add that Armstrong managed $3 trillion in funds back when the US national debt was only $6 trillion in the 1980s (half of which was the Japanese postal retirement fund). He is the largest hedge fund manager in history with no one even close to that $30 trillion in inflation adjusted funds! Do you know of any hedge fund that even manages $500 billion today and Armstrong was managing $30 trillion (comparing inflation adjusted dollars). He advised the postal fund to hedge, but the Japanese government intervened because the government realized this hedging would collapse the Japanese stock market. This intervention caused the postal fund to go bankrupt when the Japanese stock market collapsed right on time with Armstrong's model. This is why when the scam with Republic Bank and HSBC came crashing down a decade later, the Japanese government pressed for some transparency and the NY City Criminal Gang (banksters) framed Armstrong because they were caught red-handed. In the end, Republic and HSBC admitted their culpability and settled for large fines (or restitution but I forget this detail). The NY Club was using Armstrong's funds as part of their manipulation of Russia and the Long-Term Capital Management fiasco. Armstrong has blogged about the alleged assassination of Ed Safra who was the guy running Republic Bank.

So pleeeaaassseee no more nonsense from those who want to say Armstrong is a criminal, charlatan, or an insignificant figure. Any one here with less credentials should offer some evidence before making such accusations against a man who accomplished so much and is willing to share with us and is trying to help the world.



The blog post that was the most damning was today's implicating Cameron in the move towards ending encryption on the internet:

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/37903

If that becomes reality of law, we may have to use steganography to encrypt the actual information in what appears to be English language text. The battle then becomes the issue of being able to statistically hide that there is any randomness that wouldn't otherwise be present in English text. That may be very difficult. I haven't yet researched this math.

And don't forget that photo I had posted from blockchain.com's blog with their CEO and David Cameron holding hands and pledging partnership:

https://blog.blockchain.com/tag/british-pm-david-cameron/

This week, you can read about how Blockchain CEO Peter Smith traveled to SE Asia with British Prime Minister David Cameron and other fintech executives to speak with senior regulators, bank CEOs, and telecommunications executives about the future we are working towards as an industry.

David Cameron apparently been learning from the Clinton's at Bohemian Grove about sexual perversion. Apparently he has a fetus for fucking pigs:

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/09/20/david-cameron-dead-pigs-mouth_n_8167458.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3242550/Cameron-pig-bemused-look-face-future-PM-took-outrageous-initiation-ceremony-joining-Oxford-dining-society.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/11879177/Is-it-true-that-David-Cameron-had-sex-with-a-pig-It-really-doesnt-matter.html

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[1715031431]

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[darlidada]

bitcoin going up, anyone know why? i thought 2015.75 was supposed to be the armageddon, instead we have a rally! wtf?

[rpietila]

bitcoin going up, anyone know why? i thought 2015.75 was supposed to be the armageddon, instead we have a rally! wtf?

I don't know nothing about Armstrong, but even I know that 2015.75 WAS the armageddon, the low point of private assets.

Bitcoin IS now going up until the next trend turn.

[darlidada]

bitcoin going up, anyone know why? i thought 2015.75 was supposed to be the armageddon, instead we have a rally! wtf?

I don't know nothing about Armstrong, but even I know that 2015.75 WAS the armageddon, the low point of private assets.

Bitcoin IS now going up until the next trend turn.

Not according to Anonymint. Lowest point is well under 150, maybe even under 100. He says that until permabulls like you are humbled, the bottom hasnt been seen. And from what I recall, all his predictions are based on armstrong's blog

[OROBTC]

...

rpietila & darlidada

Yes, I too see that BTC has been going up the past few days.  Since I will not be buying any more, the price going up is a good thing for me.  

It will be interesting to see how BTC prices move vs. gold, vs. the US$ and vs. other assets (stocks, etc.).  Also will be interesting to see if BTC indeed goes to $150 (darlidada), although I have no idea of any timing.

tptb

Yes, I saw the beautiful coin at his article (and his remark on academic historians).  More evidence that Armstrong has been systematically ignored.  Whether Armstrong is right (or even 80% right) re his models and predictions, I do not know.  But, he makes interesting observations, is logical, and appears to have been very shabbily treated by .gov.

His big database ($1 billion?) is the only one of its type that I have ever seen too.


EDIT:

Steganography...  Sigh, one more damn thing to learn about...

[macsga]

AnonyMint predicted that we first go up to $350 (where we should sell) and then down to maybe $100 or double digits. This was his conclusion by assuming that BTC is a commodity-like asset, and follows a specific pattern that M.A. predicted; which is a thought that (in part) I also share. I don't know if the fundamentals of TA agree (I rarely follow TA, except maybe when it's very short term).

Again, this remains to be seen, so if I were you; I wouldn't rush and point fingers to anyone just yet.

[TPTB_need_war]

bitcoin going up, anyone know why? i thought 2015.75 was supposed to be the armageddon, instead we have a rally! wtf?

I don't know nothing about Armstrong, but even I know that 2015.75 WAS the armageddon, the low point of private assets.

Bitcoin IS now going up until the next trend turn.

Any one who paid for Armstrong's gold report last year knows the predicted low has been Spring 2016.

I did write in klee's PnF forum after Bitcoin achieved my prediction from May of rising from low $200s to exactly $315 as I predicted, that it could meander and eventually go as high as $380 before I would be stopped out of a hypothetical short position projecting a low well below $150. Originally I was thinking the low had to occur by or just after 2015.75, but someone with access to Armstrong's gold report made me aware the target low is Spring 2016. I was originally thinking a stampede into sovereign bonds as the final peak in government would cause a liquidity crisis and gold/BTC would be sold off by 2015.75, but then after reflecting on this projection for a gold low in Spring 2016, it made sense to me that the liquidity crisis would coincide with the move out of bonds as interest rates in the USA start rising because that would reflect a stampede whereas the current move into the short-end of the sovereign bonds is orderly and expected reaction to the worsening economic signals out of Europe, China, Japan, etc.. The Fed delayed this move to 2016, right in line with that interpretation.

So yeah enjoy the bounce in private assets, but the liquidity fat lady hasn't sung yet. The wise will sell into the bounce.

P.S. again it is my intention to stop posting in the forum. If there isn't a series of post that basically calls me out by name, then I will be able to gracefully step away so I can focus on my pressing concerns about my health and entirely depleted savings (and no income and no form safety net to fall back on, not even family).

[rpietila]

Well of course the thread is about trading advice, so I am in the wrong place.

Fundamentally, Bitcoin has its place in my portfolio, so extreme movements (going to $100 could be such) cause rebalancing.

Anything between that and $3,000 does not make my allocation of assets unsound, and thus does not cause any action.

Have you(p) noticed that constantly speculating about where some price is going and what to do, saps your energy away from productive uses? My worth is 7-figure yet I do not have time to speculate or earn money, I have more valuable projects going on now.

[TPTB_need_war]

rpietila I haven't speculated on the price for months. You all just raised the issue and called out my name, thus more or less forcing me to clarify what I speculated months ago. For me it has been a closed issue in my mind since July. I had no plans to think about it more until the low in Spring 2016.

As for rebalancing or whatever, the higher your net worth, the less incentive you have to be aggressive with trading decisions, such as your move to sell $100,000 of silver and buy BTC at $10. That decision is why you are wealthy now. You do remember I concurred with that decision when you made it. We spoke in August 2012 and again in January 2013. In August I told you I was very ill and hadn't been able to fully research Bitcoin because of being sick basically all of 2012. In January, I told you I couldn't invest because my risk tolerance was absolutely to preserve cash for self-perservation. Sure investing at that moment could have alleviated my cash problem, but if it had failed then I wouldn't have made it to today with my savings. And today I have things to sell to the market, so my preservation was correct and worked. Just as your decision now to preserve balance is more correct than grabbing every speculation opportunity to increase your wealth out-of-balance (which is what made you wealthy).

Believe me I am working when my health allows me to. And there are results already that can potentially be sold to the market. I am not too optimistic that a donation model can sufficiently fund, but I am willing to test it and find out.

And the less often I need to post in the forum, then less time is wasted posting in the forum. Which is again why I have stated I want to stop posting.

but even I know that 2015.75 WAS the armageddon

No the start of the sovereign debt big bang.

And yes Russia started bombing in Syria precisely on Sept 30. This is the start of a proxy war between the great powers (USA, China, and Russia) to divert the public's focus from the sovereign debt collapse underway. Deutsche Bank declared a multi-billion loss within about a week of this turn date.

[tabnloz]

Then there was a book known as “Historia Augusta”. The academics declared it a fraud written by a monk around 600 AD because it listed a number of Roman emperors during the crash of the 3rd century that they had never heard of. Then two coins were discovered in Egypt of Saturninus who happened to be one of these names mentioned in “Historia Augusta”. Once again, this coin (one in our collection, the other in the Louve) established the authenticity of “Historia Augusta” against the academics.

That reinforces what I wrote up thread:

suda, damn it, Armstrong spent $1 billion (inflation adjusted dollars) collecting archives of data. His model is accurate before no one else had ever spent that much on collecting vast data. The Pi correlation was discovered from the data, not chosen arbitrarily.

This is prevalent through many disciplines, especially history. Other recent examples are the suspected unearthing of Sodom that Armstrong reported on. Also some formerly mythical cities off the coast of India (spires exposed as tide receded during Tsunami of 2004). Archaeology also steadfastly maintained there had been no megalithic sites over 12,000 yrs old - despite many anomolies in the different building styles of known sites (eg Incan, Lebanon etc). It wasn't until Gobekli Tepe received press attention that refuted the long held mainstream view. The main historical point here is particularly fascinating; because many of the accounts from history do not fit with modern academia they are pushed off to the side and labelled 'mythology'. It's probably time to revisit these accounts and treat them as historical records.

[rpietila]

I am not too optimistic that a donation model can sufficiently fund, but I am willing to test it and find out.

Crypto Kingdom has been able to raise about $100k in its history for itself. But few know how much it has been able to raise for others. More than 10,000 XMR has been donated to Monero development through it directly. More than a dozen companies have been started and they are now valued between 1,000 and 30,000 XMR each.

What if you establish your project in Crypto Kingdom and start fundraising there?

What is best, you can self decide the governance model that suits you. Consider the following. A random company I founded in CK with no prior announcement and no guarantee about any returns (in fact explicit mention that there are no voting rights, nothing should be expected in weeks, which is a long time in the game, and that I solely decide what will be received as dividends) has raised 1,100 XMR in 10 hours.

No red tape. Otherwise such small deals would not be possible.

[TPTB_need_war]

I am not too optimistic that a donation model can sufficiently fund, but I am willing to test it and find out.

Crypto Kingdom has been able to raise about $100k in its history for itself. But few know how much it has been able to raise for others. More than 10,000 XMR has been donated to Monero development through it directly. More than a dozen companies have been started and they are now valued between 1,000 and 30,000 XMR each.

What if you establish your project in Crypto Kingdom and start fundraising there?

I had roughly 200 man hours (2+ weeks @ 14 hour days) in development time for that crypto breakthrough on anonymity, including the research, invention, and writing the white paper. I was able to work very intensely in some spurts during June & July and my gf can attest to that. It was August & September due to some egregious errors on diet and fasting that sent me into a tailspin on health (will be explaining this theory shortly).

My inflation-adjusted income earning capacity was $563 per hour. Thus fair value for that work just based on the hourly compensation is $112,600. I had to risk doing my work before compensation from the market for CoolPage. Ditto for this anonymity invention. So the risk weighted hourly rate is justified. If you get offered $100-$300 per hour for guaranteed compensation that is a different category. The very high rate is to compensate for the risk of not being ever compensated.

So now you can see why very highly paid developers do not work on crypto. They have the potential to earn much more money outside of crypto and crypto is too small to afford the best developers.

[suda123]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5K0k361pQoQ


Anyone have any comments on this?

They passed it a week ago during the school shootings.

[suda123]

Then there was a book known as “Historia Augusta”. The academics declared it a fraud written by a monk around 600 AD because it listed a number of Roman emperors during the crash of the 3rd century that they had never heard of. Then two coins were discovered in Egypt of Saturninus who happened to be one of these names mentioned in “Historia Augusta”. Once again, this coin (one in our collection, the other in the Louve) established the authenticity of “Historia Augusta” against the academics.

That reinforces what I wrote up thread:

suda, damn it, Armstrong spent $1 billion (inflation adjusted dollars) collecting archives of data. His model is accurate before no one else had ever spent that much on collecting vast data. The Pi correlation was discovered from the data, not chosen arbitrarily.

This is prevalent through many disciplines, especially history. Other recent examples are the suspected unearthing of Sodom that Armstrong reported on. Also some formerly mythical cities off the coast of India (spires exposed as tide receded during Tsunami of 2004). Archaeology also steadfastly maintained there had been no megalithic sites over 12,000 yrs old - despite many anomolies in the different building styles of known sites (eg Incan, Lebanon etc). It wasn't until Gobekli Tepe received press attention that refuted the long held mainstream view. The main historical point here is particularly fascinating; because many of the accounts from history do not fit with modern academia they are pushed off to the side and labelled 'mythology'. It's probably time to revisit these accounts and treat them as historical records.

They will release that information slowly, unless they face roll internet censorship fast.

[americanpegasus]

What if you establish your project in Crypto Kingdom and start fundraising there?

 
 
rpietila, sorry I haven't been able to participate in your Crypto Kingdom as of yet.  I think I am finally getting caught up on my projects, work, and personal life though and want to give it a look. 
 
Let's say I am finally about to put a bow on my fantasy novel.  How might I be able to sell and market it inside the world of Crypto Kingdom?  I know this is off topic, so please direct me to an appropriate thread to ask you about this or lets talk about it offline. 

[QUEDOS]

Armstrong has a few interesting insights into the economy. Alternate views are always refreshing, and half the time turn out to be quite accurate... something scarily accurate

[altcoinUK]

Very interesting post from Armstrong about the stock market today at http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/date/2015/10

Any trader (at least I spoke to) feel what Armstrong summarized by saying: "So stay tuned. This is by no means settled in either direction. ". Indeed the market has been on the limbo by dancing with the Barcelona tiki-taka game for a week between the directions of up and down trends, and it has not been settled in either direction yet.

We also have clarification from Armstrong about the 17,735 value which we have been discussing with TPTB_need_war. That is now 17,760. He says break this resistance on a weekly closing would allow to run to the highs. Btw this value (17760) I believe is the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 100%-61.80% segment of the 19th May high and 24th Aug range. So it make sense as well as what Armstrong says is very much in line with the expectation of most of Elliot Wave guys.

Armstrong says: "Our timing models show a potential high for this week.". Exactly that's what happened. Very good call. All of us were bearish 1-2 days ago and felt the correction is imminent. Instead of correction, now there is a prospect to continue moving higher for a several days. I will be long from here for a few days having hedge with November puts to minimize the pain. Pretty much free money, what can go wrong (hundreds of things of course, but never mind)

Is any stock market, wall street junkie like myself here who is following Armstrong and interested in this stuff? If yes then I will open a thread to discuss Armstrong's stock market calls as well as stock market moves, trades, ideas to take out this topic from this more generic thread.

[altcoinUK]

I am not too optimistic that a donation model can sufficiently fund, but I am willing to test it and find out.

Crypto Kingdom has been able to raise about $100k in its history for itself. But few know how much it has been able to raise for others. More than 10,000 XMR has been donated to Monero development through it directly. More than a dozen companies have been started and they are now valued between 1,000 and 30,000 XMR each.

What if you establish your project in Crypto Kingdom and start fundraising there?

I had roughly 200 man hours (2+ weeks @ 14 hour days) in development time for that crypto breakthrough on anonymity, including the research, invention, and writing the white paper. I was able to work very intensely in some spurts during June & July and my gf can attest to that. It was August & September due to some egregious errors on diet and fasting that sent me into a tailspin on health (will be explaining this theory shortly).

My inflation-adjusted income earning capacity was $563 per hour. Thus fair value for that work just based on the hourly compensation is $112,600. I had to risk doing my work before compensation from the market for CoolPage. Ditto for this anonymity invention. So the risk weighted hourly rate is justified. If you get offered $100-$300 per hour for guaranteed compensation that is a different category. The very high rate is to compensate for the risk of not being ever compensated.

So now you can see why very highly paid developers do not work on crypto. They have the potential to earn much more money outside of crypto and crypto is too small to afford the best developers.

If this community - which profits many ways from crypto currency - unable raise that $100k-$200k to fund a developer like yourself then this whole crypto currency idea is absolutely hopeless (the fact that Bitcoin is having 100K user base after 6 years indicates to me that the concept is evolving into a losing proposition anyway).

Try to stay healthy, and I am sure we the community will sort out the financials to keep you going.
 

[TPTB_need_war]

AltcoinUK, I am not going to set a threshold as high as $112,000 for the donation bounty on that one anonymity invention, even though I think it is a very significant feature. I am just stating what my earning opportunity cost had been inflation-adjusted from 2001. So hopefully the market will understand I am not going to give that feature away for $10,000.

Armstrong ... half the time turn out to be quite accurate... something scarily accurate

Afaics, he has always been 100% accurate on the predictions that he labels as predictions, e.g. that gold would go down from 2011 to Spring 2016, that oil would crash from $100 in 2014, that Aug 23. 2010 would be the turn date for the end of the USA (the date Edward Snowden made his irreversible moves to expose on the NSA which is being reflected now in the desire to vote for any non-politician President and will later motivate the Patriots to civil war), that the stock market would continue rising from the August 2012 sell-off (with minimum potential 18,500 and maximum 32,000 - 40,000 depending on if making phase shift to private asset before or after 2015.75, which the later has been hence elected by nature), that 2015.75 would be the start of the Sovereign Debt Crisis Redux and would be much worse this second time coinciding with the turn up of the Cycle of War since 2014 and the expectation of hot war by 2017, etc, etc, etc.

When you refer to 50% accuracy, you appear to be referring to when Armstrong writes about the short-term trading timing models which are orthogonal to the macro-economic models referred to in the above paragraph. How many times have both I regurgitated and Armstrong written that PRICE and TIME are orthogonal in those models. Once you understand that if they are misused to demand a PRICE and a TIME, then they are only probablistic. Whereas, if they are used to try to understand the potentials of the market, then a savvy trader can have an overall probabilisticly higher ROI, i.e. not 50% because that would mean losses = wins or 0% ROI.

I am not sure if you intended your comment to be flippant or a compliment of the accuracy of this model in those cases where it was accurate (e.g. exactly turn dates to the day for various markets such as the Japanese market crash in 1980s, etc). But to the extent your comment was intended to be flippant on the 50% point, it would typical of those who come to this thread without any deep understanding and display their ignorance for everyone and feel smug about it. It is quite disrespectful to attack someone of his accomplishments and ethical love of mankind, without extensive evidence.

If you'd like to exhaustively document your claim, then go ahead and try. If you didn't intend the flippant interpretation, then please disregard my angst.

[vaporware asset wizard]

I am not too optimistic that a donation model can sufficiently fund, but I am willing to test it and find out.

Crypto Kingdom has been able to raise about $100k in its history for itself. But few know how much it has been able to raise for others. More than 10,000 XMR has been donated to Monero development through it directly. More than a dozen companies have been started and they are now valued between 1,000 and 30,000 XMR each.

What if you establish your project in Crypto Kingdom and start fundraising there?

What is best, you can self decide the governance model that suits you. Consider the following. A random company I founded in CK with no prior announcement and no guarantee about any returns (in fact explicit mention that there are no voting rights, nothing should be expected in weeks, which is a long time in the game, and that I solely decide what will be received as dividends) has raised 1,100 XMR in 10 hours.

No red tape. Otherwise such small deals would not be possible.

That's a righteous suggestion! Ion exists as a currency inside a virtual economy .... cool!! Matrix anyone?