Martin Armstrong Discussion

[CoinCube]

...
CoinCube just wrote:
"Bankrupt countries and their handout dependent populations will line up to eagerly surrender national sovereignty as this will be the only means to pay the bills. Greece is the future model for most of the indebted world."
That is an interesting idea, I had not seen that before, and it is worth thinking about.  It makes a lot of sense, that FSA populations would get in line to get food...

I definitely am more suspicious of a consolidating NWO and its benevolence.  I do not see how that is predictable.  One thing I have learned in my 59 years is that it is very hard to predict the future...

Just to clarify I do not really see NWO as benevolent. Rather I see it as a likely future scenario that might be an incremental improvent for a majority of humanity. This does not necessarily mean that things will be better for everyone or even for most of those living in the west. The majority of humanity includes countries like Syria and Saudi Arabia and some regression to the mean may apply.
  
I agree on the difficulty of predicting the future. Things may play out completly different than I described above. That said here is how I think things will unfold.  

Wealth will increasingly seek to hide by moving into tax havens in other countries. It will also be increasingly hunted. Pressure applied in the name of shutting down tax havens will be one more tool to drive political consolidation and weaken the nation state. Those running from the tax man will increasingly be identified, caught and punished. Options for legal evasion ... will be shut down or restricted to an even narrower elite.

Tax havens that survive will likely be rare and limited to select jurisdictions where citizenship is hard to obtain. These areas are likely to be funded by income taxes (there will likely be no escape for wage earners anywhere)
In these havens citizens will likely be exempt from inheritance, capital gains, and wealth taxes. This will allow the billionaire class to safely run their interests from afar.

The lesser wealthy will be increasingly consumed via taxation in their home nations. The coming wave of socialism and public anger will drive most of them back into the ranks of government dependents. This will serve the purpose of sating public rage, destroying potential local opposition, and further undermining the economics of nation states thus increasing the dependence on debt that will soon be issued by bodies and governed by laws under the jurisdiction of those same tax havens.

Rather than spontaneous collapse. I believe the proper model is that of controlled demolition.

[CoinCube]

Nation states are a foolish idea anyway, so I dont see anything wrong with a world government.

I also think that depopulation is inevitable weather the elite like it or not. Robots will come sooner or later, and people will lose their jobs massively and starve.

It is a cruel future but there is no alternative really, and we cannot stop it, because every path leads to the same outcome.

I`m not sure at this point it's reversible, so we will have to prepare, and warn our friends and family, because you cant save everyone but alteast save the people you care about.

This implies a complete removal of the social safety net, worldwide and total government collapse/anarchy, or some radical change that makes redistributive taxation impossible. I disagree with the bolded text because I do not think any of those are going to happen.

[trollercoaster]

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/28832

Dear Martin,

It is CRYSTAL clear that your call for a deflationary cycle has been right on the mark. No one else saw it coming. The changes that are part of this were not as visible even a few years ago like they are now. (Of course they were to you!) I can see the economy starting to decline now, yet prices are rising due to business regulation and business focusing away from capital investment. It costs companies more to do business so those costs are passed along to the consumer.

I see the rise in taxes on everything for the consumer creating the decline in disposable income. Cash is afraid and being hoarded, supporting the commensurate shrinking of the money supply, liquidity is drying up in parts of the stock markets, and inflationary government expansion never seems to quit, sucking the life out of the productive aspects of our society.

If the economy turns down as you believe this fall, tax revenues are going to collapse. Then what? Taxes to the moon? With all of these trends firmly entrenched, when and how will the deflationary cycle end, if ever? If we are to get an inflationary cycle before the crash and burn, what could possibly cause that? Or do we just go straight to crash and burn starting in the fall? Thanks for all you do.

Best, T

ANSWER: The deflation comes from the rise in the cost of government, in addition to the collapse in leverage. As governments with power turn to extracting more from the people, rather than from the weak government, you get massive deflation and never hyperinflation. As was the case with the revolutionary new government in Germany during the 1920s. Their own power leads them down the path of suicide. Of course, that can migrate to full economic totalitarianism akin to communism. Whether you technically own your home and are taxed twice its value, or if the state owns it and allows you to live there, is just a technical point. The bottom-line is both are deflationary – not inflationary.
However, while this is typically the first wave, the second wave of inflation comes when CONFIDENCE in government collapses. This can take place with a full-length cycle of 72 years, as was the case with Russia (1917 – 1989). You will recall that the volatility portion of the Economic Confidence travels in waves of 6, whereas that frequency builds into groups of 12, forming the major volatility wave of 72 years. In finance, this is known as the Rule of 72. The rule number (e.g., 72) is divided by the interest percentage per period to obtain the approximate number of periods (usually years) required for doubling. It is interesting that this appears in volatility.

Therefore, at the worst we face a 72-year cycle of Economic Totalitarianism. However, the admixture of the fact that about half the world has already collapsed in 1989, we have a 26-year cycle from 1989, bringing us to Big Bang in 2015. We can see this materializing before our eyes and this is what the crash in government in the West is all about – the collapse in Socialism. We have a change for a reversal of this trend in 2016 with the U.S. Presidential election. Yet clearly, the USA has peaked economically and Obama has produced perhaps the worst presidency in American history, even after winning the Nobel Peace Prize. He has trashed the entire world no less, advocating bombing many regions.onsequently, we have a rare opportunity to prevent a 72-year wave of Economic Totalitarianism, but the price will still be the economic decline of the West as the financial and economic power of being the Financial Capital of the World migrates to China. That is inevitable.

So the deflation comes to an end when people run for the hills and begin buying anything tangible. In the old Soviet Union, people did not expect social benefits from their government, and were better prepared to be self-reliant. The same is true in China. In the United States, Europe, and Japan, the people are not self-sufficient as a whole. They will suffer from the withdrawal symptoms of socialism, which arguably has been far more damaging than communism, where people expected nothing. Socialism replaced the family structure entirely; children do not save to support their parents in their old age, as they have been lead to believe that it is the government’s job. Parents are having to support their children into their 30s, as they cannot find jobs in their field of study, or any job at all as is the case in Canada and Europe.

Keep in mind that deflation has nothing to do with the supply of money. That is the problem with most analyses. When you correlate everything, you see that government increases the supply of money in response to the collapse in CONFIDENCE, not the other way around. With that collapse, we in the West will have to learn not to rely upon government and reemerge as self-sufficient to save the day, at least on a personal level.

The abolishment of cash is extremely dangerous. For years, I have warned that we will NEVER return to a gold standard and are heading straight into electronic money. That is where government becomes the Economic Dictator as they try to retain power over their imploding system hallmarked with corruption. They will seek to shut down the underground economy, and that includes the drug trade. They are deliberately trying to prevent anyone from buying or selling without government’s approval, and this is one of the very arguments to eliminate cash along with 100% tax collection. Yet this is how the West is committing suicide by extinguishing the global economy.

[trollercoaster]

I am not convinced the NWO is going to be as powerful as you guys might imagine and consume the entire globe in totalitarianism with billions dead.

Yeah it'll be horrific if you're dumb enough to stay within it's boundaries.

Most of the world is not sucking on their governments titties, this seems to be unique for the west, so I see no reason for certain areas to get sucked into this mess.

The west will just be left behind, and rapidly lose it's influence on global politics as Asia emerges.

[CoinCube]

The social safety net was always an illusion, and the illusion kept people in line, once people realize that it is an illusion (because it is: pension funds unfunded, printed money based welfare ,etc.) they will be angry and start to smash things.

The corporations will fight hard to mantain their power, and I see the corporatocracy strengthrening while this phony socialist economy will really bite the dust.

Either it falls into total communism, or it will fall into total fascism, but there is hardly any other choice.

The current social safety net is obviously unsustainable and promised benefits will not be paid or more more likely will be paid in devalued currency. However, it does not follow that billons will therefore starve and there will be mass population reduction. Paying for education, health care, disability benefits, and housing, for each citizen is quite expensive. Paying for food assistance much less so. The argument for mass starvation implies a complete collapse of economy and the government along with a total inability to either tax or fund anything at all. Fascist governments are not historically associated with mass starvation. Even communist USSR which did suffer from mass starvations early on eventually figured out how to manage basic food supplies and there were no further mass starvations after 1947.  

I am not convinced the NWO is going to be as powerful as you guys might imagine and consume the entire globe in totalitarianism with billions dead.

Agreed

[macsga]

I am not convinced the NWO is going to be as powerful as you guys might imagine and consume the entire globe in totalitarianism with billions dead.

Agreed

I too share the same opinion. Too much has been accomplished so far to ruin it all with a great disaster; actually, I personally believe that the exact opposite is being scheduled as we speak in order to preserve the genetic legacy of our evolution thus far. The other scenario would have been, us turned into amoebas and have to wait for another billion years... well pardon me, but the Universe doesn't give a damn. On the other hand, we should...

[trollercoaster]

Haha that is crazy, I would not like to live on that dusty rock, I enjoy my fishing too much 

[jehst]

what does Martin Armstrong have to say about Chinese-fueled parabolic moves?

[talks_cheep]

^^^^^^^^^
MA thinks the Yellow Horde will over run the West eventually and enslave the White race, just like Genghis Khan did.

[tabnloz]

Interesting article on the increased hefty burdens that will be dealt to banks trading in bullion under Basel III rules (due in 2019). Costs up 300% to trade in bullion. So if gold is no longer a good asset then what remains for investment banks are government bonds......good old infalliable government bonds

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSL8N12J3CS20151019

[TPTB_need_war]

Fascist governments are not historically associated with mass starvation.

Ahem.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor

I am not convinced the NWO is going to be as powerful as you guys might imagine and consume the entire globe in totalitarianism with billions dead.

Agreed

The confluence of a Little Ice Age and significant pandemic along with regional wars with severe economic decline could kill a billion or two perhaps.

Yeah it'll be horrific if you're dumb enough to stay within it's boundaries.

Most of the world is not sucking on their governments titties, this seems to be unique for the west, so I see no reason for certain areas to get sucked into this mess.

The west will just be left behind, and rapidly lose it's influence on global politics as Asia emerges.

Agreed.

[OROBTC]

Fascist governments are not historically associated with mass starvation.

Ahem.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor

The problem with calling the Soviet government (responsible for the Holodomor) "Fascist" is that many people get very hung up on word definitions.  I can practically feel Bernie's spittle hitting me should you say Communist = Fascist.

I prefer the word "totalitarian" when it comes to ANY .gov that uses force or threatens to in getting citizens to comply.

But, yeah, all totalitarian governments are prone to extremes like inflicting horrors up to and including mass starvation.

Nice to see you drop by, TPTB.

[altcoinUK]

Fascist governments are not historically associated with mass starvation.

Ahem.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor

The problem with calling the Soviet government (responsible for the Holodomor) "Fascist" is that many people get very hung up on word definitions.  I can practically feel Bernie's spittle hitting me should you say Communist = Fascist.

I prefer the word "totalitarian" when it comes to ANY .gov that uses force or threatens to in getting citizens to comply.

But, yeah, all totalitarian governments are prone to extremes like inflicting horrors up to and including mass starvation.

Nice to see you drop by, TPTB.

Long time ago, my grandfather, my family was the victim of the bolshevik terror which madness - in the name of social justice and Marxists ideas - was at least as brutal as any fascist terror.

Karl Popper explain the nature of 20th century totalitarianism in his "The Open Society and Its Enemies" book. He was the very first in pointing out that there is no difference between the Fascist and Marxists totalitarianism. He analyses the subject from political philosophy viewpoint, but on the side note - to discuss the psychological root of Marxism - he also points out that the Marxist and Christian faith derive from very similar objectives, one is called heaven the other is communism.

[altcoinUK]

Btw, crunch time today on the stock market following the FED meeting. Let see if Armstrong's DJI 17,750 resistance holds. Many bulls were very surprised that Monday and yesterday the market rally was stopped. In fact, it seems to me the market stopped the rally by finding resistance at the level what Armstrong pointed out. The DJI 17,700-17,750 is the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement of the May 26 high and Aug 24 low, perhaps his AI system still using the Fibonacci retracements.

[OROBTC]

...

Latest Dow Jones chart for those interested:




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Armstrong put up a nice little post on Barcelona planning a new currency:

"Barcelona to Issue Its Own Electronic Currency"

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/38697

It looks like they want to create very soon & peg an electronic currency to the Euro.  It looks like they will start with an electronic currency only.

[altcoinUK]

Btw, crunch time today on the stock market following the FED meeting. Let see if Armstrong's DJI 17,750 resistance holds. Many bulls were very surprised that Monday and yesterday the market rally was stopped. In fact, it seems to me the market stopped the rally by finding resistance at the level what Armstrong pointed out. The DJI 17,700-17,750 is the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement of the May 26 high and Aug 24 low, perhaps his AI system still using the Fibonacci retracements.

Resistance around the SMA200, who would have guessed 

You are right about that :-)))  that is resistance what the MA 200 indicator suggest as well. I was just wondering what his day trade related AI system is based on, maybe nothing and as you said these are just common indicators or retracements like I said that 23.60% Fibonacci.
Many believes in this thread that Armstrong's day trade analysis don't bring a lot to the table. I have a huge respect for the man and taking seriously what he says, especially if his values like that DJIA 17,750 correlates with other common indicator values. I could be wrong of course about the usefulness of his day trade analyses.

[valiz]

I still find much of his economic analysis to be refreshingly competent and insightful. I am withholding judgement on his forecasting model and computer program until we see how this 2015.75 big turn plays out. I so far see a lot of interesting things happen more or less as predicted but no clear "big bang" event. At least not yet. The powderkeg keg of enormous debt is in place. The fuse may or may not be lit. Will it explode? We'll see.

 
 
I find this: 
 
http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/a-liquidity-crisis-hit-the-banking-in-september/ 
 
and this follow up: 
 
http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/something-blew-up-in-the-global-financial-system/ 
 
extremely insightful.  It appears that perhaps 2015.75 has already happened, but the powers that be have decided to go to egregious lengths to cover-up/band-aid it.  If that speculation is correct, the derivatives bubble just popped, but the greater world hasn't realized it yet.  Meanwhile, behind the scenes, they are scrambling and going into full panic mode to determine how to mitigate the damage. 
 
But if a 1 quadrillion dollar bubble pops with geometrically accelerating consequences there's nothing that can be done: that dwarfs the sum of money on Earth by a factor of 10x.  It won't be like a financial earthquake... 
 
It will be a fucking economic extinction level event: 
 

Are we dead yet? 

It's almost 2015.83 already 

[rpietila]

It is financial extinction, but economy is a completely different thing.

It requires some upgrade in the level of thinking yes, but I posit that even if all the western fiat currencies were just removed from the system, their all positive and negative balances and all contracts that solely exist to trade between them, this would directly cause only a few months of confusion.

Every other martial law, misery, regulations of trade, etc. is part of the plan, to make us fear that we should hold on to the system of enslavement and fear its demise.

If you don't fear, they are quite powerless.

Crypto Kingdom is a microcosm of this. Even if all the money was removed from the game (eg. by goons coercing the depository), the game would continue just as well as before. The difference between Crypto Kingdom and real world is that I as the leader of the former, have intention to solve any crises, and the banksters, as the usurpers of the latter, are busy creating crises to keep people in fear.

[altcoinUK]

It is financial extinction, but economy is a completely different thing.

It requires some upgrade in the level of thinking yes, but I posit that even if all the western fiat currencies were just removed from the system, their all positive and negative balances and all contracts that solely exist to trade between them, this would directly cause only a few months of confusion.

Every other martial law, misery, regulations of trade, etc. is part of the plan, to make us fear that we should hold on to the system of enslavement and fear its demise.

If you don't fear, they are quite powerless.

Crypto Kingdom is a microcosm of this. Even if all the money was removed from the game (eg. by goons coercing the depository), the game would continue just as well as before. The difference between Crypto Kingdom and real world is that I as the leader of the former, have intention to solve any crises, and the banksters, as the usurpers of the latter, are busy creating crises to keep people in fear.

I don't think the majority of bankers are purposefully creating the crisis to keep people in fear. They are just greedy and there is a tremendous incentive from their viewpoint to keep the current system that yields them tens of billions dollar per year profit keep going. No doubt that Goldman Sachs and the likes run the show via their sockpuppets in central banks and government, and those greedy f@ckers in the banks aren't going to give up their global ATM machine easily - after all the money supply never dry out in that global ATM machine.

[RealBitcoin]

the banks aren't going to give up their global ATM machine easily - after all the money supply never dry out in that global ATM machine.

If they are going to ban cash wouldn't the ATMs would be useless?

I mean we would all use contactless Credit Cards, card readers for merchants, and so on. But the ATM system itself would go to waste.

Its funny because the ATM manufacturers dont like that. They could have banned cash a long time ago , but I think the ATM business is not letting them.

In a world where all is centered for profit, you have to wrestle with your business partners too