Martin Armstrong Discussion

[TPTB_need_war]

I do think there may be some intermediate solutions on a programmable blockchain with projects like Augur (Intrade on the blockchain), decentralized exchange

See my critique which says those technologies can't work:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1319681.msg13576188#msg13576188
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1319681.msg13580146#msg13580146
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1319681.msg13569559#msg13569559

...at some point force free capital somewhere.  

Cryptocurrency is my hedge/bet on this.  Of the solutions that exist - what do you recommend?  Nothing?

Here is what I am doing... (albeit I have only about $20,000 at the moment and it isn't even my money...I have roughly $0 networth...yikes  )

US Dollar until gold makes it's low March 2016 (or thereabouts and < $1000 perhaps < $850), then buy physical gold coins (not bullion!) or an ETF proxy short-term while retaining some US dollars (until as late as early 2017 before capital controls will be pervasive) and wait for the cryptocurrency arena to become more clear. There is appears to be great risk of a major implosion of crypto land.

Trade gold or dollars for crypto as the situation becomes more clear.

Of course no problem with speculation with 1% of net worth (maybe 5% total max for speculative longshots) in promising technological ventures, but don't go all-in on anything which doesn't have the momentum and clarity that Bitcoin had in late 2012 and early 2013. And don't ever buy so much of a speculative longshot, that you lose your objectivity such as what IMO has happened to some of the hardcore Monero/Aeon investors (which would force one to go around thumping their chest instead of listening and continually readjusting based on available data).

Note I probably won't buy gold because I don't have enough capital to make it worth while, can't obtain the coins in Philippines, and I don't want to re-enter a brokerage again to buy an ETF. So it will be all US dollars for me.

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[THX 1138]

...My writing is very sloppy and missing words (that I hear in my head but forget to type), because I am far too overloaded due to the rate of posting and number of waking versus sleeping hours, in addition to all the other work and tasks I am attempting to do. You all simply can't expect one man to be superman. Impossible. Even the coherence of my writing and thoughts declines as the load increases...

I realise I may have been unwittingly pedantic in reading your text 

It is a documented fact that brain damage results from these sort of patterns of activity (lack of sleep, etc). Especially not good for age 50.7 and trying to cure come chronic dysfunction of the bile duct that has systemic effects in terms of chronic fatigue syndrome, peripheral neuropathy, headaches, whole body itchiness (to the point of having wounds all over my body when I scratch while sleeping) and other symptoms which mimic Multiple Sclerosis (but I now envision I don't have MS but rather the yellow stomach is more likely pancreatic or gall bladder issue, maybe cancer or blockage for other reason)...

Even though you now feel it is less likely you have MS, and it might not be appropriate regarding your particular situation, I was wondering if you had across this news regarding a promising breakthrough:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-35065905

"...UK doctors in Sheffield say patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) are showing "remarkable" improvements after receiving a treatment usually used for cancer.

About 20 patients have received bone marrow transplants using their own stem cells..."

...Around August or so with the approachin 2015.75, I was on the lookout as to whether the decline to the bottom would come precipitously. But then someone shared with me a copy of Armstrong's gold report and I became  aware that the predicted low was roughly March 2016. So then I began to expect the final capitulation low would come Q1 2016...

Thanks for the clarification.

...Here is what I am doing... (albeit I have only about $20,000 at the moment and it isn't even my money...I have roughly $0 networth...yikes  )

US Dollar until gold makes it's low March 2016 (or thereabouts and < $1000 perhaps < $850), then buy physical gold coins (not bullion!) or an ETF proxy short-term while retaining some US dollars (until as late as early 2017 before capital controls will be pervasive) and wait for the cryptocurrency arena to become more clear. There is appears to be great risk of a major implosion of crypto land.

Trade gold or dollars for crypto as the situation becomes more clear.

Of course no problem with speculation with 1% of net worth (maybe 5% total max for speculative longshots) in promising technological ventures, but don't go all-in on anything which doesn't have the momentum and clarity that Bitcoin had in late 2012 and early 2013. And don't ever buy so much of a speculative longshot, that you lose your objectivity such as what IMO has happened to some of the hardcore Monero/Aeon investors (which would force one to go around thumping their chest instead of listening and continually readjusting based on available data).

Note I probably won't buy gold because I don't have enough capital to make it worth while, can't obtain the coins in Philippines, and I don't want to re-enter a brokerage again to buy an ETF. So it will be all US dollars for me.

Interesting. A couple of the above coincide with my own various "hedges" against the uncertainty ahead - and I recently abandoned plans of returning to any kind of crypto for the time being. Having an offshore account too was another consideration (for a comparitively modest sum), though can't really be sure which countries would be stable (I recall earlier discussion on this in another thread); having looked into the supposedly purged Iceland, but can't be certain that is the case. Fortunately, I can get hold of physical gold coins easily here, but would be watching for government intervention like a hawk during any subsequent rise, ready to get out quick and perhaps buy land with the proceeds (while remaining aware of the possible pitfalls), if crypto still appears uncertain.

But hey, I'm not looking for a response to this, realising you have other fish to fry at the moment. Just ruminating aloud, so to speak. But a time for decisive action is at hand, I think. One shot now could set off an avalanche.

[TPTB_need_war]

You are on a fucking disinformation campaign. I am tired of your lies. Stop lying to this forum.

This is mostly incorrect allegations.

This goes back to 2008 http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/its-just-time-martin-armstrong.pdf when he predicted 2500 and 5000 in gold. Notice also his “brilliant and super precise” forecast on the Dow ranging between 3.5-35K.

Here is what Armstrong wrote:

The Dow Jones could fall to 3,500 if Confidence swings to the government, or it could go through a Phase-Transition and reach 35,000 if the swing is back to the private sector. Gold-is likely to go to $2,500 or jump beyond even $5,000.

Armstrong is referring to the end of the current cycle for gold and he has not changed that forecast. He still thinks gold can peak out at $5000. The interim correction to < $1000 is shorter-term cycle within the larger cycle.

If you don't even understand a fucking thing about cycles and what Armstrong is actually writing, so STFU with your FUD.

All the rest of your points can be similarly refuted.

[sloanf]

Armstrong is referring to the end of the current cycle for gold and he has not changed that forecast.

Oh really? Hasn’t he flip-flopped from his numerous 3K, 5K, 12K calls to now 1K and below? Hasn’t he praised gold as THE BEST of all worlds for a bull market? Hasn’t he clearly specified the date (by 2015\2016) which is highly unusual for him (for he prefers to obfuscate everything so not to get caught on his false predictions)? Everything is well documented - levels, dates, etc, so that

The interim correction to < $1000 is shorter-term cycle within the larger cycle.

crap about short-term\long-term won’t work, ok?
MA of course can keep fucking gullible idiots like yourself forever (as he already did with gold at least twice) but he can’t sell his crap to those who can at least read.

He still thinks gold can peak out at $5000.

I don’t care what he, you, or anybody think. Let’s not forget he always keeps telling that his forecasts are not his views but his super computer. So now it turns out it was yet another regular bs and there is no computer that does all those forecasts. It's just his opinions and wild guesses. And not just on gold, on everything as I clearly showed earlier.

If you don't even understand a fucking thing about cycles and what Armstrong is actually writing, so STFU with your FUD.
All the rest of your points can be similarly refuted.

http://www.informedtrades.com/showthread.php?t=1341538

You (and I don’t mean you personally because I don’t give a damn about you. I mean delusional and gullible idiots like yourself who exist only for getting ripped off by charlatans like MA) refuse to hear the truth because:
1.   You paid money for MA’s totally worthless reports and subscriptions full of wrong predictions, so for you it’s really hard to admit that you wasted your money and proved beyond all doubts your stupidity to everybody including MA. It’s like going to a standup comedy show. You go there thinking it’s going to be great. But very soon you realize that is not and you don’t find it funny. But nevertheless you laugh because you want to get something back on your wasted money. And most importantly, deep inside you don’t want to confess to yourself that you got fucked because it hurts your ego and self-esteem, that’s why you pretend it’s funny and you lie to yourself.
2.   In this complex and uncertain world absolute majority of people seek guidance, somebody to tell them what to do, what to think, etc. Somebody who can explain them things for they are not able to do so themselves. It’s like a blind who needs a guide-dog, like a child who asks his mommy “what’s this and what’s that”. That’s why throughout the whole history charlatans like MA have been popular. From voodoo shamans, oracles and priests of ancient Egypt to these days, they all appeal to people’s insecurities, exploit their weaknesses and emotions, not their reasoning. And when somebody tries to open their eyes with facts, people reject them. Not based on facts or reasoning, but because of their stupidity, deep insecurities, and fears. For people don’t want to lose that feeling of false protection, they prefer to remain in that sweet delusion that there’s somebody that would walk them through uncertainties. And when they think they found that somebody, they don’t want to lose him no matter what. But the hard reality is that there is no such person and never existed. Hello! You have to work yourself or you'll be getting fucked by armstrongs and the likes.

[tabnloz]

Let’s take a look at this picture again http://s3.amazonaws.com/armstrongeconomics-wp/2012/08/realestate-cycle.jpg Since 1955, from which the graph begins, to 1979, when it was first created (claimed to be created, to be precise), there must have been some metric MA used to measure real estate dynamics, right? And it wasn’t the S&P Reit index, because there was no S&P Reit index back then, ok? So you can’t use it or any other metric that was developed later to argue that the forecast is correct. But even the S&P Reit says that real estate exceeded 2007 high. Regardless of anything, again, check what’s going on in all major cities across the globe and every dog on the street will tell you that real estate is way higher than it was in 2007.

Fair enough, there was no REIT and therefore it can't be his metric, but surely you must be able to accept that in Feb 7 / 2007, on the turning point of his ECM, the S&P REIT reached its high (335.86). It has only roughly equalled that in Jan 23 / 2015 (330.00), and that is not adjusting for inflation. Here is the link

http://us.spindices.com/indices/equity/sp-united-states-reit-us-dollar

I can agree that this may not be the best metric to judge, but think of the probability of someone predicting a top in RE years in advance on that date, and the turning point actually occurring is pretty small.

The press called it Armstrong's Revenge.

"Martin Armstrong's revenge - I could not think of a more appropriate title to characterize this write-up because whether by chance or not, the stock market did turn south with a vengeance right on the exact turn-day identified by his model. Of course the real neat part of the whole enchilada is the fact his model predicted this turn all the way back in 1999."

http://www.safehaven.com/article/7078/martin-armstrongs-revenge

Now, this may not be the best source, but then again, you used the NYT so I guess it doesn't matter.

As for 1987, 1989 and other ecm predictions http://www.financialsense.com/sites/default/files/users/u695/armstrong-economic-confidence-model.jpg, let’s not fall for that bs, ok? He did not predict any of those events. He just stated those dates based on 8.6 years without any specifics. And if something did happen on or around those dates he came out and claimed that he predicted precisely that event. For example, MA did not predict the crash of 1987. The Dow bottomed on Oct20 which is accidently happened on 1987.8. The decline itself started earlier on Aug25. And only after the crash MA jumped in and claimed his “forecast”. Another interesting thing is that his model shows that it should have been the peak, not the bottom.

MA predicted an event to occur on the ECM turning point in 1987, which it did. One of the biggest drops in history. If he gave the date without context, then fine, accepted. But this says there is something to the 8.6 / pi model. I read an article where he said that 87 was the first time he actually believed in the model. I can't find articles of him saying the date but here's Barron's.

"Armstrong is the developer of the Armstrong Economic Confidence Model, best known for calling the crash of 1987 to the very day. The model pegged June 13-June 14, 2011, as the start of a long-term upward trend in the market; the market obliged by notching its first weekly rise since April 29"

http://www.barrons.com/articles/SB50001424053111904548404576397780966386382

So those are two dates, to the day, that he has correctly predicted an event to occur on. In 07 he said RE and the REIT hit its high. In 87 I'm assuming he was talking Dow and it plunged.

Further to that, here http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/models/historical-turning-points-economic-confidence-model-6000bc-2072ad he put thousands of points so naturally something happened on or around some dates. But it clear that in absolute majority of cases nothing happened at all, just like in 2015.75, which MA had been preaching for years as Big Bang. But let me remind you, he predicted  http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35652 the US government shutdown, government debt collapse and so much else. Of course, nothing of that happened. In fact, nothing happened at all. So in the absence of anything significant, he, in order to cover his ass, used the fact that Putin sent a couple of planes to Syria as the major Big Bang event. What a pathetic charlatan!

OK, this is plausible. Maybe he retrofits it, who's to say? I don't think you can say every derivative of 8.6 will see a major event (4.3, 2.15 etc) but, I don't think you can dismiss the model either.

Now on your point of MA never admitting he is wrong - here is his reasoning on Does The Model Ever Change Its Mind?

"The answer to this question is yes and no. There are two entirely separate  forecasts TIME and PRICE. There are three markers in price with respect to the Dow – 18500, 23000, and then 40000. The earliest time frame was 2016. There is no guarantee that we will see the 40000 level. This is why we have to follow the numbers. It is always a IF – THEN – ELSE issue for both TIME and PRICE must agree. If we reach the end of the cycle and it has only reached 23000, then that is it. If we exceed the 23000 level PRIOR to the end of the cycle, then the 40000 target becomes possible."

Also, MA says that every 51-year wave is followed by deflation http://img.over-blog-kiwi.com/0/55/64/39/201306/phpukRPHF, i.e. after 1929, 1981, 2033, etc. The reality is that deflation started after 1921, briefly paused and then restarted after 1926. There was no deflation after 1981 - there was high inflation instead. And now we are almost in a deflation mode but his deeply flawed model says we should get deflation no earlier than 2033. And if we go back earlier than 1929 we’ll easily find even more flaws in all his bs theory.

Haven't looked, you may be right. But I noticed his 51.6 yr up & down RE cycle roughly correlates to actual RE price movements.

http://moneyweek.com/is-the-uk-property-market-facing-an-18-year-slump/

And just for those who are still delusional and cannot figure out what is what by themselves, check http://www.nytimes.com/1999/09/17/business/international-business-japanese-regulators-get-a-2d-scalp-under-their-belts.html  what NYT had to say about MA back then. “a show-boating investment manager who was well known among Japanese corporate investors for his persuasive sales pitches.” Notice, they don’t call him a great programmer, forecaster, guru, economist, financier, trader, hedge fund manager, historian, scientist or anything else but a show-boating salesman. Because that’s what he was and has always been ever since the times he could not get into college. A salesman that pitches bs, for you can't teach an old dog new tricks. And every sensible man now knows it.

No doubt he's can showboat. He ran a multi billion dollar hedge fund, was awarded trader of the year etc etc and was the toast of Japan after the 89 top. I'd have a bit of showboat too.

Now, on to the NYT. This is the publication that trumpeted the Iraq war / WMD's, is well known as a govt mouthpiece and just dumped on bitcoin, so their standing as an independent publication has dropped like a stone in the last decade. And of course, this is just a writers opinions.


But anyway, good posts, I can't say with certainty that MA isnt a fraud but I don't believe so. To me, at the least, there's something to his cycles. Doesn't cost me anything - I'm only an interested observer. Don't take MA's predictions so personally.

[TPTB_need_war]

Armstrong is referring to the end of the current cycle for gold and he has not changed that forecast.

Oh really? Hasn’t he flip-flopped from his numerous 3K, 5K, 12K calls to now 1K and below? Hasn’t he praised gold as THE BEST of all worlds for a bull market? Hasn’t he clearly specified the date (by 2015\2016) which is highly unusual for him (for he prefers to obfuscate everything so not to get caught on his false predictions)? Everything is well documented - levels, dates, etc, so that

Complete nonsense. I have been reading since he started writing in prison. And that was never the chronology of predictions that was communicated.

You come in after the fact and don't comprehend what was communicated and proclaim nonsense. Have you been purchasing his paid gold reports? Of course not. You have no clue as to the charts and explanations that were provided.

Get off our lawn. I don't care if you don't want to follow him. Don't. I know better.

And I don't have time nor inclination to re-explain all the chronology to you. You deserve to not follow him and suffer the consequences thereof.

Btw, the gold prediction has always been for $2.5 - $5K top. The $12K figure is an absolute top of the chart projection, but isn't realistic. It would only be achieved in a very bizarre scenario of near complete collapse of society, but not collapsing all the way to where food becomes money. He always stated that projection was very unlikely (either we don't collapse globally to where food is money or we do, not in between sustained long enough to drive gold that high ... and that is why he said most often the period where gold is being heavily relied upon as money is typically only a couple of years before society resets or we go all the way to a Dark Age and then only food is money).

The correction to below $1k along the way to the ultimate top for gold in this bull cycle was always one of the potentials. It became more locked into stone as events progressed from when he was prison. By 2010 or so, he had identified 2011 as the top for gold before a correction.

I know because I was reading all during that time.

Note also that he didn't have access to his computer while in prison so when he wrote the $2.5 - $5K top from prison, he didn't yet have access to his models to start identifying the correction cycles that would occur along the way to that chart top prediction. The computer correlates enough patterns to be able to identity the cycles within cycles.

And if you expect that cycles analysis will be a simple matter of a prediction and a specific date, then you are clueless about Chaos Theory which is underpinning Armstrong's computer model. That is not what a cycles analysis can do. Rather it can give probabilities and these have to be interpreted in context and these contexts become more solidified based on other contexts. Because everything is interrelated and thus all the cycles impact the other cycles. There are some longer-term cycles that repeat, but predicting specific events what will occur on those cycle dates requires recent context.

For me he has been correct on the major predictions I needed to know about:

1. He called the top in gold & silver for 2011 and the decline ever since to ultimately a low in Q1 2016.

2. He identified in Aug 2012 that the US stock markets would continue to rise (everyone was expecting a crash) and that the ultimate high would be $32 - $40K but that could either occur before 2015.75 or 2017ish. If the Dow paused and did not phase transition (into a bubble) before 2015.75, then we'd be looking at the latter scenario. He had said that by the closing of 2014 we  would know with higher certainty. And at that time, he indicated that it looked like 2017ish had been elected and that US stocks had instead phase shifted to align with private assets such as gold.

3. He called for the top in oil of $100ish and decline to $35, also the closing price for 2014 precisely at $54.

4. He identified the shift to rising US dollar which has been very beneficial to me as I held US dollars instead of pesos, which have fallen against the dollar from 40 to 48. The MSM and goldbugs were pitching to us a collapsing dollar and even hyperinflation while Armstrong was predicting deflation and US economy the strongest in 2017 (with China to bottom in 2020 and start its ascent to dominate the world).

Why do you hide behind a newbie sock puppet account? Who are you on this forum formerly and what is your reputation on this forum? Or who are you in real life, what is your real name? My real name is Shelby Moore III.

[sloanf]

Complete nonsense. I have been reading since he started writing in prison. And that was never the chronology of predictions that was communicated.

You don’t say! I have already posted the proof earlier

This goes back to 2008 http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/its-just-time-martin-armstrong.pdf when he predicted 2500 and 5000 in gold. Notice also his “brilliant and super precise” forecast on the Dow ranging between 3.5-35K.

Now take a look at this http://s3.amazonaws.com/armstrongeconomics-wp/2012/03/will-gold-reach-5000-809.pdf.  He finally gets more specific by saying gold “is still poised to rally to at least test the $3,000 level if not much higher.” At least! And of course he yet again mentions 5000 levels. Of course, as we now know, it was yet another totally wrong prediction.

Here (in 2011) http://s3.amazonaws.com/armstrongeconomics-wp/2011/03/armstrongeconomics-how-when-030111.pdf he praises gold as THE BEST of all worlds for a bull market and even goes as far as to predict 12K (not just 5K this time!) by 2015\2016.

but since you haven’t read it apparently, let me read it for you. Here (the report is dated Oct10, 2008) http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/its-just-time-martin-armstrong.pdf MA says “gold is likely to go to $2,500 or jump beyond even $5,000”. By the way, he also says this “The reaction should have been to the downside into 2008, with a consolidation into early 2009, but another serious decline is still possible going into June 13th, 2011. Do not expect the real estate markets to recover by much.” All turned out to be false.

Here (August 28th, 2009) http://s3.amazonaws.com/armstrongeconomics-wp/2012/03/will-gold-reach-5000-809.pdf MA says “It is coming into its own and is still poised to rally to at least test the $3,000 level if not much higher.” And “Government has promised the moon, and can no more keep their promise that Santa really eats the cookies. When there is no one who buys the US debt, that is when the ceiling will fall. We will see this most likely after 2010 and it appears the end may be 2015-2016. A 21 year bull market in stocks points to 2015 and a 17.2 year high in gold points to 2016. This does not negate the decline after Labor Day back into 2010 that seems to be shaping up”.
Now, let me spell it for you so you finally understand. “No demand for the US debt and collapse by 2015-2016”. Completely the opposite happened. “Gold 17.2 year high at least 3K and much higher in 2016”. Completely the opposite happened. “Stocks high in 2015” but earlier he shifted the high to 2017 and now is shifting to 2020-2021.

Here (March 1, 2011) http://s3.amazonaws.com/armstrongeconomics-wp/2011/03/armstrongeconomics-how-when-030111.pdf he says that gold is “THE BEST of all worlds for a bull market” and “"there does not appear to be a likelihood of any real BEAR MARKET" (Notice, that was just 6 months before the bear market started). Also, “the two patterns are either we stay in the primary channel for right now and test the support at the 1150 or 1250 level at worst, or we blast out the top of this main channel, fall back to find it providing support, and then we will be on our way to at least $5000 and may be $12000 by 2015/2016.”. Not only neither of his options worked out, the opposite happened. Notice this time he does not use “may be”, “some time in the future”, “short\long-term” or any of his usual tricks. He clearly says “will”, “at least $5000”, and “by 2015\2016”.

And I don't have time nor inclination to re-explain all the chronology to you.

I have never asked you or anybody for that and I don’t need it. Even if I needed, I would not be asking you because I would prefer the original version, not someone else’s skewed interpretations.  And especially yours, since you reveal over and over again to everybody that you cannot read and keep buying bs reports.

The correction to below $1k along the way to the ultimate top for gold in this bull cycle was always one of the potentials. It became more locked into stone as events progressed from when he was prison. By 2010 or so, he had identified 2011 as the top for gold before a correction.
 

I have just (and earlier in my other posts) brought you the bullet-proof evidence of the opposite.

For me he has been correct on the major predictions I needed to know about:

1. He called the top in gold & silver for 2011 and the decline ever since to ultimately a low in Q1 2016.  

False. See above. And again do finally read this http://www.informedtrades.com/showthread.php?t=1341538 where people collected some of his countless totally wrong calls and flip-flops with links on all the sources.

2. He identified in Aug 2012 that the US stock markets would continue to rise (everyone was expecting a crash) and that the ultimate high would be $32 - $40K but that could either occur before 2015.75 or 2017ish. If the Dow paused and did not phase transition (into a bubble) before 2015.75, then we'd be looking at the latter scenario. He had said that by the closing of 2014 we would know with higher certainty. And at that time, he indicated that it looked like 2017ish had been elected and that US stocks had instead phase shifted to align with private assets such as gold.

Ok, he has already shifted this date yet again. Now it’s not 2017 (because even people like yourself won’t believe in 40K in 2017) already but 2020-2021.

3. He called for the top in oil of $100ish and decline to $35, also the closing price for 2014 precisely at $54.

Read my previous post where I addressed this call.

4. He identified the shift to rising US dollar which has been very beneficial to me as I held US dollars instead of pesos, which have fallen against the dollar from 40 to 48. The MSM and goldbugs were pitching to us a collapsing dollar and even hyperinflation while Armstrong was predicting deflation and US economy the strongest in 2017 (with China to bottom in 2020 and start its ascent to dominate the world).

Oh really? He predicted deflation no earlier than 2033, ok? http://img.over-blog-kiwi.com/0/55/64/39/201306/phpukRPHF And as for the dollar (read my very first post on that), he predicted completely the opposite. Right at the bottom of the DXY he said it was going down and would collapse http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2011-09-28/felon-forecaster-blogs-on-8-6-year-economic-cycles-after-11-years-in-jail

In the end, out of thousands of predictions he has thrown (see my first post where I described this trick) throughout these years you managed to find only 4 that you thought were correct. And even those 4 turned out to be either flip-flopping, wild guesses, or false.

Why do you hide behind a newbie sock puppet account? Who are you on this forum formerly and what is your reputation on this forum? Or who are you in real life, what is your real name? My real name is Shelby Moore III.

This is the first time I am on this forum. It does not matter who I am here or in real life since the topic is not about me. And not even about you.

[sloanf]

I can agree that this may not be the best metric to judge, but think of the probability of someone predicting a top in RE years in advance on that date, and the turning point actually occurring is pretty small.

I already explained how he makes such calls and decomposed his pattern here:

Finally, let me add to the summary I have made in the previous post about his cheats and tricks. Throughout all these years he uses the same pattern of predictions:
1.   Pick an asset
2.   Multiply its price by 8-10
3.   Pick a date which is next or second-next in his deeply flawed 3.14 model

Examples abound: Oil $10 to 100 (10 times) by the next 3.14 date 2007.15, the Dow 3.5K to 35K (10 times) by next 3.14 date 2015.75, gold 500 or 1200 to 5000 or 12000 (by 10 times) by the next 3.14 date 2015.75, etc. If it does not work, he just shifts the date (which he did twice already with the Dow) or flip flops (like he did with gold or with oil <example above>). Simple.

but let me add something new to that especially since you brought up this

If he gave the date without context, then fine, accepted. But this says there is something to the 8.6 / pi model.

because it’s really revealing. In reality, pi, 8,6\4.3\2.14 etc don’t matter at all. Those are just numbers. Pick any number, say 7.2 or 11.7 or whatever, and run the same series in excel like MA did here http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/models/historical-turning-points-economic-confidence-model-6000bc-2072ad. Try playing with the result (changing turning points, i.e. dividing the initial number by 3,4,5 etc, and then testing those turning points on various markets). You will get the same or even higher probability of significant dates. I suspect MA picked 3.14 because it’s easy to explain to gullible crowds because 3.14 looks credible so he could sell it easily without any suspicion and monetize his made-up theory.

I read an article where he said that 87 was the first time he actually believed in the model. I can't find articles of him saying the date but here's Barron's.

"Armstrong is the developer of the Armstrong Economic Confidence Model, best known for calling the crash of 1987 to the very day.

No, MA is best known for cheating Japanese investors and spending 11 years in jail for that. Ask google what he is best known for and you’ll see.

So those are two dates, to the day, that he has correctly predicted an event to occur on. In 07 he said RE and the REIT hit its high. In 87 I'm assuming he was talking Dow and it plunged.

No, he was not talking about the Dow. For if he was, he would have made a lot of money and he didn’t. The only time he predicted a specific event was 2015.75. And I don’t have to tell you how it all played out.

Now on your point of MA never admitting he is wrong - here is his reasoning on Does The Model Ever Change Its Mind?

I would have to agree – he did admit he was wrong only once. That was when he pleaded guilty in 2006 to conspiracy for lying to investors about his trading record and the value of assets he held.
As for this

"The answer to this question is yes and no. There are two entirely separate  forecasts TIME and PRICE. There are three markers in price with respect to the Dow – 18500, 23000…

This appeared as a backup option to cover his ass and only after it was getting more and more evident that he would likely to miss his call again. Check the original version since the very start of this forecast – there was no “backup”.

No doubt he's can showboat. He ran a multi billion dollar hedge fund, was awarded trader of the year etc etc and was the toast of Japan after the 89 top. I'd have a bit of showboat too.

Don’t take those bs awards too seriously, will you? It’s just one of countless occasions for amateurs with no fact-checking. Just like the recent one http://www.financemagnates.com/forex/products/the-man-who-predicted-snb-fxstreet-names-forex-person-of-the-year/. They did not even bother to check this http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/25888, which was written just a couple of weeks before the chf-break.

Now, on to the NYT. This is the publication that trumpeted the Iraq war / WMD's, is well known as a govt mouthpiece and just dumped on bitcoin, so their standing as an independent publication has dropped like a stone in the last decade. And of course, this is just a writers opinions.

This wasn’t “just a writers opinions”. The articles says it was Japanese investors’ opinion. But that aside, I brought the article not to claim that NYT or other media is credible – that wasn’t the point. The point was to show you what people had to say of MA back then. And it is the only article of 1999 (when MA was charged) I found in public access.

[TPTB_need_war]

but since you haven’t read it apparently, let me read it for you. Here (the report is dated Oct10, 2008) http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/its-just-time-martin-armstrong.pdf MA says “gold is likely to go to $2,500 or jump beyond even $5,000”. By the way, he also says this “The reaction should have been to the downside into 2008, with a consolidation into early 2009, but another serious decline is still possible going into June 13th, 2011. Do not expect the real estate markets to recover by much.” All turned out to be false.

That is exactly what gold did.

And non-trophy real estate did not recover to new highs (inflation-adjusted).

Any more nonsense?

[sidhujag]

I should start my own blog and claim I own a supercomputer with some charts and cycles too lol.. atleast my predictions seem to come closer to his.. but if you don't have any wild predictions people dont read so I fear mine would be pretty boring.

[TPTB_need_war]

No, MA is best known for cheating Japanese investors and spending 11 years in jail for that. Ask google what he is best known for and you’ll see.

You must be paid to come here and lie. All your points are factually incorrect.

I will not let you waste my time and drag me into a long tit-for-tat debate, because it is clear that you are not interested in the truth, but rather are doing a smear campaign based on lying to readers.

For example, you don't even seem to be aware that he was in ILLEGALLY imprisoned for years for contempt-of-court, not for a conviction. And the plea bargain at the very end was forced on him by sending another prisoner in to bash all his teeth out after Armstrong (which caused an eye infection and he was going blind and needed to get the hell out of prison) which was prompted because he was near to having his case adjudicated by the Supreme Court given his vast network of friends in high places (which according to Armstrong would have brought all the facts of the case to light).

And after all, it the banks involved admitted he took no funds and paid fines for their malfeasance. It was a giant corruption.

You are either a dufus or a paid propagandist.

[TPTB_need_war]

Oh really? He predicted deflation no earlier than 2033, ok?

You have some screws loose in your head. That statement is so far from reality that it doesn't even deserve my effort to dig up a blog post to prove you wrong. That is all he has been talking about for years dumbass how sovereign debt crisis BIG BANG as of 2015.75 leads into a vortex of contagion and deflation.

Cripes man. Readers can surely see you are entirely clueless.

[Risk Mgmt]

Armstrong is referring to the end of the current cycle for gold and he has not changed that forecast.

Oh really? Hasn’t he flip-flopped from his numerous 3K, 5K, 12K calls to now 1K and below? Hasn’t he praised gold as THE BEST of all worlds for a bull market? Hasn’t he clearly specified the date (by 2015\2016) which is highly unusual for him (for he prefers to obfuscate everything so not to get caught on his false predictions)? Everything is well documented - levels, dates, etc, so that

Complete nonsense. I have been reading since he started writing in prison. And that was never the chronology of predictions that was communicated.

You come in after the fact and don't comprehend what was communicated and proclaim nonsense. Have you been purchasing his paid gold reports? Of course not. You have no clue as to the charts and explanations that were provided.

Get off our lawn. I don't care if you don't want to follow him. Don't. I know better.

And I don't have time nor inclination to re-explain all the chronology to you. You deserve to not follow him and suffer the consequences thereof.

Btw, the gold prediction has always been for $2.5 - $5K top. The $12K figure is an absolute top of the chart projection, but isn't realistic. It would only be achieved in a very bizarre scenario of near complete collapse of society, but not collapsing all the way to where food becomes money. He always stated that projection was very unlikely (either we don't collapse globally to where food is money or we do, not in between sustained long enough to drive gold that high ... and that is why he said most often the period where gold is being heavily relied upon as money is typically only a couple of years before society resets or we go all the way to a Dark Age and then only food is money).

The correction to below $1k along the way to the ultimate top for gold in this bull cycle was always one of the potentials. It became more locked into stone as events progressed from when he was prison. By 2010 or so, he had identified 2011 as the top for gold before a correction.

I know because I was reading all during that time.

Note also that he didn't have access to his computer while in prison so when he wrote the $2.5 - $5K top from prison, he didn't yet have access to his models to start identifying the correction cycles that would occur along the way to that chart top prediction. The computer correlates enough patterns to be able to identity the cycles within cycles.

And if you expect that cycles analysis will be a simple matter of a prediction and a specific date, then you are clueless about Chaos Theory which is underpinning Armstrong's computer model. That is not what a cycles analysis can do. Rather it can give probabilities and these have to be interpreted in context and these contexts become more solidified based on other contexts. Because everything is interrelated and thus all the cycles impact the other cycles. There are some longer-term cycles that repeat, but predicting specific events what will occur on those cycle dates requires recent context.

For me he has been correct on the major predictions I needed to know about:

1. He called the top in gold & silver for 2011 and the decline ever since to ultimately a low in Q1 2016.

2. He identified in Aug 2012 that the US stock markets would continue to rise (everyone was expecting a crash) and that the ultimate high would be $32 - $40K but that could either occur before 2015.75 or 2017ish. If the Dow paused and did not phase transition (into a bubble) before 2015.75, then we'd be looking at the latter scenario. He had said that by the closing of 2014 we  would know with higher certainty. And at that time, he indicated that it looked like 2017ish had been elected and that US stocks had instead phase shifted to align with private assets such as gold.

3. He called for the top in oil of $100ish and decline to $35, also the closing price for 2014 precisely at $54.

4. He identified the shift to rising US dollar which has been very beneficial to me as I held US dollars instead of pesos, which have fallen against the dollar from 40 to 48. The MSM and goldbugs were pitching to us a collapsing dollar and even hyperinflation while Armstrong was predicting deflation and US economy the strongest in 2017 (with China to bottom in 2020 and start its ascent to dominate the world).

Why do you hide behind a newbie sock puppet account? Who are you on this forum formerly and what is your reputation on this forum? Or who are you in real life, what is your real name? My real name is Shelby Moore III.

I gotta side with TPTB here....

[OROBTC]

...

I mention again that very few, if any, can predict the future with anything significantly higher than random, especially in the short-term (I do believe that some can read trends more accurately, and so might have some ability to beat the average when thinking longer-term).  Nonetheless, Armstrong HAS acquired a devoted fan base, he would not have as many admirers if he were way off-base.

Disclosure: I have NOT done the research necessary to compare his predictions vs. what actually happened (nor in what TIME-FRAME, smile...), nor how his record stacks up vs. other prognosticators.  Also, he mixes political analysis to some degree in almost everything he writes, that makes it harder to properly distinguish factors behind his predictions, on the other hand those predictions partly based on politics are more ambitious and forward-leaning...

But for me, it matters little.  He claims to have a supercomputer grinding away on all the data he has amassed.  I am willing to give him some time to see how his ideas work out.  No one else claims to have put together such a database (not even Goldman Sachs IIRC).

Indeed, when he was in prison, I encountered some 12 or so of his reports via Scribd.  They were fascinating, clearly showing a knowledge of financial history.

Again, I started this thread so that people could come along and analyze his stuff.  So far, this thread has had total success!  Thank you all for playing!

[OROBTC]

...

And who enters the Tar Pit first (USA vs. Europe)?

Armstrong seems to have made his pick today:

"Germany Sending Refugees Back to Austria"  (Whoops, Angela!)

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/42110

and

"France in State of Economic Emergency"  (France headed into the shredder faster than we thought: Socialism!)

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/42105

[bigtimespaghetti]

It seems some Dutch are getting it as well. There have been a number of decent sized protests in towns that were talking about setting up migrant centres in the Netherlands. Not to mention a populist politician capitalising on this. He is also being charged with inciting racial hatred for suggesting reducing/stopping migrants entering the Netherlands, ain't free speech great!
From what I understand there has been a history of poor integration with the Moroccan community here. Perhaps that gives the country a better footing to oppose mass migration that they had no part or say in. And yes I know the Dutch military are involved in the ME and probably have companies selling weapons too.

[sloanf]

That is exactly what gold did.

And non-trophy real estate did not recover to new highs (inflation-adjusted).

How is it “That is exactly what gold did”? Read again.

MA said that:
1.   Gold would go up to 2500 and even 5000 – false. Gold maxed at around 1900 and then declined to 1K. Later he specified the period by 2015\2016 and we are in 2016 already.
2.   Gold would decline into June 2011 – the opposite happened. I.e. gold soared into September 2011 to all-time high.
3.   RE would not recover much – the opposite happened. RE overall went up at least to the 2007 high, i.e. fully recovered. And some segments rose way higher the 2007 levels. Is it “not recover much”?

You must be paid to come here and lie. All your points are factually incorrect.

I will not let you waste my time and drag me into a long tit-for-tat debate, because it is clear that you are not interested in the truth, but rather are doing a smear campaign based on lying to readers.

For example, you don't even seem to be aware that he was in ILLEGALLY imprisoned for years for contempt-of-court, not for a conviction. And the plea bargain at the very end was forced on him by sending another prisoner in to bash all his teeth out after Armstrong (which caused an eye infection and he was going blind and needed to get the hell out of prison) which was prompted because he was near to having his case adjudicated by the Supreme Court given his vast network of friends in high places (which according to Armstrong would have brought all the facts of the case to light).

It’s all MA claims with no proof as usual. He always makes claims with no factual evidence whatsoever (just like with historic data, supercomputer, trading performance, $1trln under contract, advising for top government officials and central bankers around the world, etc). After all, have you ever heard of any convicted criminal admitting they were convicted legally? As for MA, read the articles below

http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/a/martin_a_armstrong/index.html
http://nihoncassandra.blogspot.ru/2006/08/enigma-of-martin-armstrong.html  
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2011-09-28/felon-forecaster-blogs-on-8-6-year-economic-cycles-after-11-years-in-jail

and consider this:
1.   He was caught not by the Wallstreet, corrupt bankers or anyone affiliated with the US authorities (so it’s yet another MA bs that it was the US bankers plot against him) but by the Japanese watchdogs and prosecutors.
2.   No media (both then and now, both independent and dependent) ever said he was clean and innocent (in fact, they say the opposite)
3.   None of his Japanese clients ever said anything in defense of MA. In fact, nobody said anything except his mother.
4.   If the whole thing was set up against him personally (as he claims), why is it that two of his workers and his bank were also pleaded guilty.
5.   If the plea was forced, as you say, why those two workers also pleaded guilty? Were all their teeth also bashed and all that?
6.   If he was clean, why “Republic Securities, now a unit of HSBC Holdings Plc, also pleaded guilty, admitting it helped Armstrong swindle clients. It paid $569 million in restitution.”? Again, the bank admitted that MA did swindle clients. Not as you claim

And after all, it the banks involved admitted he took no funds and paid fines for their malfeasance. It was a giant corruption.

7.   Finally, if everything was so illegal against him, why didn’t he sue them all? At least the media? Or at least present all documents and evidence he has to the public so independent lawyers could look at it and tell their views?
Because he did cheat Japanese investors and he knows it. Look what he said “he can’t be liable for fraud or running a Ponzi scheme because he wasn’t acting as a money manager.” Notice, that he does not say “because he did not run\did not do any wrongdoing” but because he wasn’t a money manager. A technical aspect.

You have some screws loose in your head. That statement is so far from reality that it doesn't even deserve my effort to dig up a blog post to prove you wrong. That is all he has been talking about for years dumbass how sovereign debt crisis BIG BANG as of 2015.75 leads into a vortex of contagion and deflation.

You don’t have to dig up anything since you already proved numerous times that you are not capable of anything related to independent fact-checking and also because I already did it for you. Look at this http://img.over-blog-kiwi.com/0/55/64/39/201306/phpukRPHF picture again. I already commented on it here

Also, MA says that every 51-year wave is followed by deflation http://img.over-blog-kiwi.com/0/55/64/39/201306/phpukRPHF, i.e. after 1929, 1981, 2033, etc. The reality is that deflation started after 1921, briefly paused and then restarted after 1926. There was no deflation after 1981 - there was high inflation instead. And now we are almost in a deflation mode but his deeply flawed model says we should get deflation no earlier than 2033. And if we go back earlier than 1929 we’ll easily find even more flaws in all his bs theory.

But again: he predicted deflation after every major 51-year wave, i.e. 1929, 1981, 2033. Wrong prediction as usual.

[sloanf]

Nonetheless, Armstrong HAS acquired a devoted fan base, he would not have as many admirers if he were way off-base.

Every forecaster has many admirers and a devoted fan base. It has always been the case throughout the whole human history regardless of the right\wrong call ratio. Read here

You (and I don’t mean you personally because I don’t give a damn about you. I mean delusional and gullible idiots like yourself who exist only for getting ripped off by charlatans like MA) refuse to hear the truth because:
1.   You paid money for MA’s totally worthless reports and subscriptions full of wrong predictions, so for you it’s really hard to admit that you wasted your money and proved beyond all doubts your stupidity to everybody including MA. It’s like going to a standup comedy show. You go there thinking it’s going to be great. But very soon you realize that is not and you don’t find it funny. But nevertheless you laugh because you want to get something back on your wasted money. And most importantly, deep inside you don’t want to confess to yourself that you got fucked because it hurts your ego and self-esteem, that’s why you pretend it’s funny and you lie to yourself.
2.   In this complex and uncertain world absolute majority of people seek guidance, somebody to tell them what to do, what to think, etc. Somebody who can explain them things for they are not able to do so themselves. It’s like a blind who needs a guide-dog, like a child who asks his mommy “what’s this and what’s that”. That’s why throughout the whole history charlatans like MA have been popular. From voodoo shamans, oracles and priests of ancient Egypt to these days, they all appeal to people’s insecurities, exploit their weaknesses and emotions, not their reasoning. And when somebody tries to open their eyes with facts, people reject them. Not based on facts or reasoning, but because of their stupidity, deep insecurities, and fears. For people don’t want to lose that feeling of false protection, they prefer to remain in that sweet delusion that there’s somebody that would walk them through uncertainties. And when they think they found that somebody, they don’t want to lose him no matter what. But the hard reality is that there is no such person and never existed. Hello! You have to work yourself or you'll be getting fucked by armstrongs and the likes.

Disclosure: I have NOT done the research necessary to compare his predictions vs. what actually happened (nor in what TIME-FRAME, smile...), nor how his record stacks up vs. other prognosticators.

 
You didn’t do your fact-checking and 99,9% of people don’t do either. That’s one of the reasons why fan crowds only grow. Look at TPTB, who not only did not check anything, but also did not want to, and, as we have witnessed numerous times, is not capable of reading let alone fact-checking. In fact, he has been buying bs reports with constantly wrong predictions from an uneducated convicted criminal at exorbitant prices for years without spotting anything suspicious. And even after several people bring bullet-proof evidence to him explaining them carefully like to a two-year old child, he still denies them. Again, the explanation for that phenomenon is above.

Indeed, when he was in prison, I encountered some 12 or so of his reports via Scribd.  They were fascinating, clearly showing a knowledge of financial history.

That’s how most fish got hooked, as I explained in the first post about MA’s tricks. That’s his key selling point. That history and physics bs he put everywhere regardless of relevance and context is what creates that false image of a guru and attracts unsophisticated newcomers.

[sidhujag]

Tis herd mentality and followers rather than leaders that follow without checking facts

[TPTB_need_war]

DRM has nothing to do with it all. Thus I assume you don't understand the issue.

You are not giving him due credit. (AM is not a typical BTCT slouch.)  It is an allusion to "reflections on trusting trust" https://www.ece.cmu.edu/~ganger/712.fall02/papers/p761-thompson.pdf

I think I did correct my myopia in the subsequent reply to him. And I think the points reached sort of a stalemate. I don't dismiss his point, but if that white paper above is our concern, then none of the software we use is trustworthy. Okay I understand the point that doing something once and we all have to rely on that, is different than we all each download our software and run diverse hardware. But is it? Seems we all are running the hardware made by Intel and all the download links run through routers controlled by TPTB.

So all-in-all, I accepted his point. I think anonymity is a clusterfuck. Given the way Zerocash's forum treated me (they removed all my posts after they realized I was explaining serious flaws and challenges), I don't expect any success from them either.

I'd like to move on away from anonymity. Maybe one day in the future we could make some mixers based on Zerocash (long after their effort has faded into the dust) and maybe use it for some few esoteric uses for anonymity. But reliable anonymity on a widescale is unfortunately a delusion that even I had to finally come to grips with. Sad to say.

As for unreliable anonymity, I can do that now with Bitcoin. I just go use an unregistered wireless network connection. Eventually that will be impossible, but for now it is available in some jurisdictions.

If someone could identify a use for ring mixing that applied to businesses who don't mind if the NSA is tracking their privacy, then perhaps I could be convinced there is a market. But as I wrote before, the NSA has employees and those employees can't be trusted to not sell your privacy to your competitors. Corruption is the rule, not the exception. A mouse will always eat the cheese.

I start to comprehend now how it might be true when Martin Armstrong says we might descend into a Dark Age.

The only way I can think to fight back now is go for popularity and control in the hands of the people. Win the political war.