Martin Armstrong Discussion

[altcoinUK]

Governments would be pro Bitcoin because everything is being recorded in the blockchain

Correct. That's why Bitcoin is a God given gift to the the government and tax man. That's why there are conspiracy theories - which I don't subscribe to - that Sathosi is an NSA creation.

On the other hand, I don't agree with conspiracy theories that government will make Bitcoin big just to have this centralized place for tax collection i.e. intentionally make Bitcoin very big as some theory advocates it. Government don't have to do that - they implement the electronic FIAT system anyway, in Europe very-very quickly so they don't need Bitcoin, the electronic FIAT system is their central store of information. That's why I said if for some miraculous reason BTC get bigger then the government will step in, but not before.

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[altcoinUK]

MA has always said the short-term is much more noisy than the long-term.

That's true and I said myself many times here that he is reasonable honest and pretty much the only one to admit that he doesn't have a pointer and he says from time to time that market is to volatile, it's not clear where are the resistances and supports and it is too risky for day trading.

[altcoinUK]

And btw, this is why I suggested to Zcash, they hedge their bets and also focus some of their efforts on the corporate applications of zk-snarks to privacy for public block chains with an optional viewkey for the government. This is absolutely needed by corporations if they are going to use block chain technology to interopt more efficiently. Zcash is sitting on a gold mine technology if they get some clarity into their strategy. I think perhaps they should have hired me. Any way, I am off on other project/work now.

That was the reason I started to support the Gadgetcoin developers, because they identified businesses need a private implementation of the blockchain, businesses simply can't operate with public blockchains. Such public blockchain exposes all their trading and transaction information to the public, which is simply not an option for business operations (now the GDC devs are unhappy with me because of my IOTA fight, but that is an other matter). I think you are quite right if you see there is a business case and your project can be successful in that area.

Let me add to both of your points, that the global government is also taking form but not entirely organized yet. For example, the G20 has just recently pledged to share information and work together on tax cheating. It takes a while to get all these 100+ nations to cooperate, but realize the leverage the G20 has over international banking (e.g. they threatened to shut off the Philippines' OFW remittances if the Philippines didn't comply with the wished for the USA such as ending the bank secrecy law in the Philippines) and over the internet trunk lines (undersea) and other geopolitical leverage.

It always amaze me how powerless we are when it comes to money, and how quick government and the money lobby can act. You remember, not long time ago the Greeks voted and said no to austerity. The vote was on a Sunday. The following week their prime minister sat down with the Troika and by Friday the prime minister implemented more severe measures that was declined by the voters just a few days before.
I think the Chinese, Europe and all others will implement those money control measures in a heartbeat when they feel the Status Quo needs to be defended.

[altcoinUK]

On the note of electronic FIAT - and it indicates IMHO how intelligent Armstrong is and he sees the big picture - on the other day he said that yes, all nations will implement the electronic FIAT system, but the US, because the role of US dollars in world economy won't be able to that. Therefore, it will be a very messy situation. Now, that is very interesting. Electronic FIAT will be a big change around the world with its consequence on society and economy. The sheep of Europe - like we are in the UK and all others in the EU - move to electronic FIAT. In the meantime the physical US dollar will be still in place. How that does work, everyone will just buy US $ as Armstrong predicts it (please note he predicts it for mainly different reasons)? But Armstrong also says after 2020 the money flow to Asia. Why would it flow if US dollar still the safe heaven? Indeed a complicated issue.

[TPTB_need_war]

Governments would be pro Bitcoin because everything is being recorded in the blockchain

Correct. That's why Bitcoin is a God given gift to the the government and tax man. That's why there are conspiracy theories - which I don't subscribe to - that Sathosi is an NSA creation.

Non-sequitor. (plz don't be offended)

If Bitcoin is a God given gift to the government, then it does not logically follow that Satoshi wouldn't be a DEEP STATE (global elite/NSA/CIA) operation.

On the other hand, I don't agree with conspiracy theories that government will make Bitcoin big just to have this centralized place for tax collection i.e. intentionally make Bitcoin very big as some theory advocates it. Government don't have to do that - they implement the electronic FIAT system anyway, in Europe very-very quickly so they don't need Bitcoin, the electronic FIAT system is their central store of information. That's why I said if for some miraculous reason BTC get bigger then the government will step in, but not before.

I years ago figured out why the global elite planted Bitcoin.

It undermines the nation-states, central banks, and existing banking systems. They could not accomplish that in a hidden way if they did it top-down as you claim.

(yet another reason that Zcash should take my advice and make sure they focus also on corporate applications of their technology)

The plan all along has been to discredit the existing nation-state system to move towards a world government system.

On the note of electronic FIAT - and it indicates IMHO how intelligent Armstrong is and he sees the big picture - on the other day he said that yes, all nations will implement the electronic FIAT system, but the US, because the role of US dollars in world economy won't be able to that. Therefore, it will be a very messy situation. Now, that is very interesting. Electronic FIAT will be a big change around the world with its consequence on society and economy. The sheep of Europe - like we are in the UK and all others in the EU - move to electronic FIAT. In the meantime the physical US dollar will be still in place. How that does work, everyone will just buy US $ as Armstrong predicts it (please note he predicts it for mainly different reasons)? But Armstrong also says after 2020 the money flow to Asia. Why would it flow if US dollar still the safe heaven? Indeed a complicated issue.

He also stated the USA has the least chance of cancelling the dollar (not just cash) because the Bible Belt might secede from the USA, but Europe, Japan, etc have done it very often.

What Armstrong is saying is the same as I have long stated, which is that the rest of the world will implode and then blame the strong dollar. It is this contagion of blame that will lead to a new Breton Woods where a global government can be initiated. The point of Bitcoin and the sovereign debt crisis is force the nation-states to their knees to beg for a globalized monetary union.

[TPTB_need_war]

And btw, this is why I suggested to Zcash, they hedge their bets and also focus some of their efforts on the corporate applications of zk-snarks to privacy for public block chains with an optional viewkey for the government. This is absolutely needed by corporations if they are going to use block chain technology to interopt more efficiently. Zcash is sitting on a gold mine technology if they get some clarity into their strategy. I think perhaps they should have hired me. Any way, I am off on other project/work now.

That was the reason I started to support the Gadgetcoin developers, because they identified businesses need a private implementation of the blockchain, businesses simply can't operate with public blockchains. Such public blockchain exposes all their trading and transaction information to the public, which is simply not an option for business operations (now the GDC devs are unhappy with me because of my IOTA fight, but that is an other matter). I think you are quite right if you see there is a business case and your project can be successful in that area.

I am saddened to hear that the GDC affiliation turned slightly sour because of your questioning the ethics of Iota. I would guess what they would be upset about is being associated with any strife, because it might turn off corporations. I don't think you can do anything about speculation in coins. You have nothing to gain from fighting such a war. Instead be laserbeam focused on investing correctly. And trying to find any serious and capable development that you want to invest in.

One of the problems that GDC and I face is economies-of-scale. We simply don't have enough full-time developers and I am also ill. But I am going to redouble my efforts on both my health treatment and on my resolve to not post in forums and be focused on coding. The key in my mind is reaching a point where others invest in the ecosystem, then economies-of-scale become easy. So I am just trying to devise the clever way to jumpstart to that pole position with the resources I have (i.e. myself and enough cash to support my living expenses for several more months).

Let me add to both of your points, that the global government is also taking form but not entirely organized yet. For example, the G20 has just recently pledged to share information and work together on tax cheating. It takes a while to get all these 100+ nations to cooperate, but realize the leverage the G20 has over international banking (e.g. they threatened to shut off the Philippines' OFW remittances if the Philippines didn't comply with the wished for the USA such as ending the bank secrecy law in the Philippines) and over the internet trunk lines (undersea) and other geopolitical leverage.

It always amaze me how powerless we are when it comes to money, and how quick government and the money lobby can act. You remember, not long time ago the Greeks voted and said no to austerity. The vote was on a Sunday. The following week their prime minister sat down with the Troika and by Friday the prime minister implemented more severe measures that was declined by the voters just a few days before.
I think the Chinese, Europe and all others will implement those money control measures in a heartbeat when they feel the Status Quo needs to be defended.

That is why I want to work on the problem insidiously. The people should taste freedom in the things they do normally on the internet, e.g. social networking. From there, the people are astute at finding all the opportunities and fighting for them. Enable the masses to get what they REALLY want. That is the key.

[altcoinUK]

Governments would be pro Bitcoin because everything is being recorded in the blockchain

Correct. That's why Bitcoin is a God given gift to the the government and tax man. That's why there are conspiracy theories - which I don't subscribe to - that Sathosi is an NSA creation.

Non-sequitor. (plz don't be offended)

If Bitcoin is a God given gift to the government, then it does not logically follow that Satoshi wouldn't be a DEEP STATE (global elite/NSA/CIA) operation.

Yes, I understand that could be a valid assumption or logical conclusion about Satoshi, and even I am not young any more I still have something from my idealistic youth when I believed so much in humanity, so I still refuse to accept that the government is such a bunch of wankers and collection of evil operators who comes up with such an immoral project by inventing Satoshi Nakamato. Though it could be very well the case.

What Armstrong is saying is the same as I have long stated, which is that the rest of the world will implode and then blame the strong dollar. It is this contagion of blame that will lead to a new Breton Woods where a global government can be initiated. The point of Bitcoin and the sovereign debt crisis is force the nation-states to their knees to beg for a globalized monetary union.

Very interesting projection. If you are correct about that - we will see soon - then I will open one and send you as well a nice 26 years old single malt Scotch Whisky so we can at least get dunk and celebrate that we are totally fucked up. The issue is the vast majority of the population will be perfectly happy with the new world order, so I think it is the battle of Sisyphus from our side. (I know your opinion about the knowledge economy, but I am not sure if that can happen in our lifetime. For instance, Armstrong talks about the need for a total reset which could even cause a mini Dark Age if I understand correctly what he says).

I am saddened to hear that the GDC affiliation turned slightly sour because of your questioning the ethics of Iota. I would guess what they would be upset about is being associated with any strife, because it might turn off corporations. I don't think you can do anything about speculation in coins. You have nothing to gain from fighting such a war. Instead be laserbeam focused on investing correctly. And trying to find any serious and capable development that you want to invest in.

One of the problems that GDC and I face is economies-of-scale. We simply don't have enough full-time developers and I am also ill. But I am going to redouble my efforts on both my health treatment and on my resolve to not post in forums and be focused on coding. The key in my mind is reaching a point where others invest in the ecosystem, then economies-of-scale become easy. So I am just trying to devise the clever way to jumpstart to that pole position with the resources I have (i.e. myself and enough cash to support my living expenses for several more months).

Yeah, they ask me not to involve them in a fight with IOTA, and they think if I have such fight then my support causes more harm than good for GDC, which viewpoint is understandable to a certain degree and from business operation viewpoint. On the other hand I am comfortable in saying the truth and pointing out if a project is a blatant scam. They will be all right with me when and if I can help to secure some VC funding for them. IMHO that's what you need as well: to formalize your operation and go with a serious VC or group of angel investors. I understand you can get some support here but the trouble which comes with the money from this platform simply does not worth the support. You have to explain all day long to speculators, young, inexperienced and uninformed "investors" every steps you do. I think you would be in a more desirable position, more productive and eventually more successful if you would work with VC investors instead of trying to get support on this platform. You know that your knowledge and intellect could be a very valuable asset to any serious projects. A serious project would enable you to implement your idea instead of educating the people here who are not even grateful for your work (see the lack of reaction in your vaporcoin thread where you published your Shazam symmetric crypto and none of the developers of this toxic place say anything about it. The greedy, jealous and selfish attitude of this toxic place is disappointing). I hope you will continue with the GDC devs, at least - unlike the majority of greedy, jealous and selfish developers in Bitcointalk - they respect your work and intellect (they said it publicly). Anyway, you will find the way to progress - smart people always do.

[TPTB_need_war]

The issue is the vast majority of the population will be perfectly happy with the new world order

Not necessarily. It depends. They are fattened and appeased right now because the "free" debt money spigot is open wide. On the backside of 2017, they are not going to like the pain, which will open opportunities to get them interested in online commerce so they can earn some income during the downturn coming. The elite know this and that is why will try to lock everything down with capital controls from 2017 to 2020 at least, so they can complete their global monetary reset.

So the key is to work on projects which won't be in violation of any capital controls. Think small such as microtransactions. The government can't possible put capital controls on microtransactions.

I have a specific plan now (which wasn't formulated when I spoke to you all in private) and it is doesn't involve air drops to n00bs. Also I have diversified my plan so that if the crypto currency aspect of my project fails, I will still have the social networking aspect which I can continue.

...if I can help to secure some VC funding for them. IMHO that's what you need as well: to formalize your operation and go with a serious VC or group of angel investors. I understand you can get some support here but the trouble which comes with the money from this platform simply does not worth the support. You have to explain all day long to speculators, young, inexperienced and uninformed "investors" every steps you do. I think you would be in a more desirable position, more productive and eventually more successful if you would work with VC investors instead of trying to get support on this platform.

I had enough offers for angel funding before ($100,000+) June that I tried to find a programmer to work with me. But it is very difficult to find programmers at my level who are willing to work for a smaller payscale and not also burden the coin with a huge premine. And to increase their pay means a larger angel investment which also could create a huge premine, depending on the terms. I find it very slow to conceive of stopping my coding now to try to go organize that. I am thinking I can get a rudimentary launch done within months and from there generate the funding necessary to refine it further with a small team of developers.

When selecting a team of developers, I would much rather select from a larger pool than here on this forum. I want people who are smarter than me and who are easy to work with. Also I think it is easier to select such people once you have an code base so you can see how developers perform on the actual type of work needed. And how the communication load scales. Some pairings of people just aren't able to communicate efficiently to each other, or have misaligned outlooks. Company culture is critical to success. It should feel like a slumber party in order to be successful.

[sloanf]

The next few (maximum 10) months will provide sceptics and followers with an answer about whether Armstrong is a gifted forecaster or an opportunist.

Most analysts, technicians and economists (who aren't CNBC shills so we can take their opinion somehow more seriously) pretty much agree that we are in a bear market. As a day trader I don't disagree with them and I am already loaded with shorts and put options. On the other hand Armstrong says the slingshot is still an option to slaughter the greedy crowd that get excited from the bear market and take us to new highs. (Partly for that reason I try not to catch the falling knife, I am trying to be conservative in profit taking and for example I closed my March DAX puts at 8750 today. Btw DAX 8750 is the October 2013 level, that's how amazingly in good shape our European economy is). I understand for Arsmtrong  the slingshot is an "if" scenario and it depends on many conditional variables, but still, he thinks it is a very possible scenario. While majority of analysts, technicians and economists in agreement with regards to the bear market. So we will see who is right and wrong.

As a side note, to be fair, the scepticism of the critics of Armstrong is supported by the human side of Armstrong. His human side what he often demonstrates in his blog, namely that the latest market directional change very much influences your opinion. When the market is seriously dipping then he start to talk about DJIA 13K and when there is a recovery the he start mentioning the slingshot move. All I am trying to say, he could be right about his cycle theory, but when it comes to day trading he is as much clueless as all of us are.

I am amazed at how people can be that much brainwashed that they cannot see obvious things and still need "few months" to figure out what is what. Don't you see https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/gold-just-follow-the-numbers/ how this charlatan is bs you right in your face? After preaching low in gold for Q1 and missing the rise, he now all of a sudden is trying to tell you that his non-existing model did predict the rise in gold and has been sending buy-signals since last year low. And you are talking about his human side and moral values?

But once you brought this up, here is another proof that clearly shows what he really is, a dirty fraudster and a charlatan. Check this https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/just-follow-the-numbers/ where he says "We are also trying to get up the blog in the Investor and Trader sections of Socrates for those who are registered to help divert traffic like this. It looks like instead of 3 million, today may exceed 10 million people and who knows the number of accesses." Wow, 3-10 million people daily, right? Now check this http://www.similarweb.com/website/armstrongeconomics.com that says his website has 1.2M monthly (not daily) visitors. And then check https://siteanalytics.compete.com/armstrongeconomics.com/ that shows 67K monthly unique visitors. So he lies not just by 2 or 3 times, he lies by up to 100 times. This tool http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/armstrongeconomics.com confirms the numbers of compete.com and similarweb.com and the browsing location section reveals yet another despicable lie of MA. Almost everybody reads his blog from home, not from work. So what does that tell us about his clients? Are they governments, corporates, banks, investment companies or students, freelancers, housewives, unemployed, etc? And yet here https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/products_services/socrates/socrates-waiting-list-every-day-people-are-added-in-the-order-they-logged-in/ he bs everybody about millions of "investor" level and how thousands are begging him daily to get access to his constantly failing model that nobody has ever seen. What a dirty salesman!

[TPTB_need_war]

Amateurs who can't afford his paid service with their lunch money obviously have no clue about the details of what MA predicted in his paid reports:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/just-follow-the-numbers/

Looks like MA is stating gold will not bottom in Q1 but rather sometime later:

QUESTION: Marty, at the Conference you said we could conclude this in the first quarter if we get the alignment. It does not look like we will get the alignment since gold is up and the Dow is down. This is why you have been saying this looked like it was postponing into 2017?

ANSWER: Yes. We could have concluded this here in 2016, but the Reversals determine the trend. Trend is ALWAYS defined by the Bullish and the Bearish Reversals. Those who expect forecasts to be one-sided opinions are not traders and will typically lose their shirt as 90% of people who try to trade do. A real trader MUST know where he is right and where he is wrong at all times since the market is the only thing that is ever infallible. Those who expect one-sided forecasts never survive. Those who do not grasp why we have Bullish and Bearish Reversals defining the trend claiming that is why we are always right are blind fools. You cannot elect both the Bearish and the Bullish on the same day. These type of people will be separated from their money real fast in the coming Sling-Shot because they are incapable of understanding how markets even move. This is a learning experience and when there is nothing left to learn, it is time to die. So those who are incapable of learning, well I suppose they are just a waste of humanity that drive the rest of us in awe watching their stupidity repeat over and over again.

True, 2016 would be the 5 years down from the 2011 high in gold. But because of the spit with 2012 being the highest annual closing, this has left the door open to the conclusion being pushed off into 2017. If we got the final low for gold in the first quarter then a low in the Dow as well would be the alignment that confidence in government would collapse now. But when the Dow closed year-end lower and gold closed above our number, then this is why I stated gold is not as weak as it appeared. It then began electing the Bullish Reversals, not the Bearish, and that gave us the indication we would get a rally BETWEEN the Benchmarks at a very minimum. This was only reinforced by the closing in the Euro  where we warned the Euro should rise to 113 at minimum and 116 optimal. The decline in the dollar should have helped gold, but it will also intensify the deflation in Europe and help to push their banking system over the cliff as is happening right now.

The talk around the street is claiming the moves are a lack of confidence in general that central banks can control the economy. Well that’s nice, for they never could. But this is looking very dicey to say the least. That is why we have to just following the Reversals and the Timing. We have heard every excuse to explain the trend from the stock market is now following oil to gold has rallied because the Fed will not raise rates. Honestly, this all sounds like gibberish.

The markets are preparing for a sling-shot move that will make most people’s nose bleed. Gold has reached so far the 1263 level so there is still room on the upside yet before encountering resistance. The two key numbers to watch now are the 1309 and 1363 levels. Pay attention to the Dow. If we can closing below 15875 we have a shot of finally breaking last year’s low.

Also pay attention to silver. It has not kept pace with gold showing the bulk of the gold move has been short-covering. Here we need a closing for the week above 1643 to be comparable with gold just above the 1209 number. We also have a Weekly Bullish at 1544. Silver is begrudgingly following which does not speak well for the long-term sustainability here.

So in the end, we will set the stage for all this craziness moving to extremes. Then ask yourself this question? Are you willing to hand your money to government and ask it hold it for you? If we are concerned about banks, and we are concerned about government, then there is not much life but to move to the private sector. So when rates go negative, a 1% yield in a blue-chip stock looks like haven. That is the shift on the horizon from public to private. We have to get the weak-minded running into the arms of government before the markets will slaughter them for their stupidity.

QUESTION:

Dear Marty,

2011 was the intraday high in gold, but 2012 was the highest yearly closing. Add the 5 units of time bear market, that would potentially bring us with a low in 2017.

Likewise the Dow’s highest yearly closing was 2014. With a 3 units of time correction we end up with a possible 2017 low.

Is it possible that 2017 is in fact the year of global alignment in the markets, and what we are experiencing now is the False Move developing right in front of our eyes?

-SB

ANSWER: Yes. There is the risk of this extending sideways and 2016 becoming the staging ground in all markets into the first quarter of 2017. I have warned, for example, in gold that 2016 could produce the lowest yearly closing and 2017 could produce the intraday low. Gold held the 1044 number for the close of 2015, and that warned, as I stated, that gold was NOT as weak as it appeared. Markets are NOT random. Every subtle move is for a reason. To survive, we have to learn to pay attention. The market is ALWAYS right – only humans are wrong.

[OROBTC]

...

Well, it looks like gold will not close down for the quarter after today's majestic move up some $50.



I certainly concede that gold could get slaughtered in the days ahead.  But, today's move (and reports of people lined up around the block to buy gold in London) hint that gold is becoming more attractive to the masses.  Physical gold that is.

[marcus_of_augustus]

Gold and oil are de-linking after more than 100 years.

New energy technologies are becoming a reality and on the foreseeable horizon, fusion, low-temp. fusion and some weird stuff are out there coming in to view. Fossil fuels are no longer going to be treated as quasi-monetary assets.

Bitcoin and new energy will be the new basis ... after a shake-out not witnessed in 5 generations.

[tabnloz]

...

Well, it looks like gold will not close down for the quarter after today's majestic move up some $50.



I certainly concede that gold could get slaughtered in the days ahead.  But, today's move (and reports of people lined up around the block to buy gold in London) hint that gold is becoming more attractive to the masses.  Physical gold that is.

As JPM guy explains, interesting to note people are not fleeing to the safety of paper or bank deposits, but gold.

The anchor in the video also mentions that every defensive trade is so crowded right now, the reply is that people are just treading water. To me this is another small sign of the crowding into sovereign bonds.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-11/jpm-ficc-head-people-have-more-confidence-gold-bank-deposits-or-paper-money

[marcus_of_augustus]

As JPM guy explains, interesting to note people are not fleeing to the safety of paper or bank deposits, but gold.

The anchor in the video also mentions that every defensive trade is so crowded right now, the reply is that people are just treading water. To me this is another small sign of the crowding into sovereign bonds.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-11/jpm-ficc-head-people-have-more-confidence-gold-bank-deposits-or-paper-money

speaking of crowded defensive trades, physical fiat cash is clearly being delineated as a different form of money to digital fiat bank accounts, being subject to bail-in, confiscation, freezes, bank-holidays, etc. I'm expecting at some point to see physical fiat cash trade at a premium to digital fiat cash, as much as bearer bonds have and bearer stocks have versus their counter-party impaired representations in the past.

Also I think this is a large part of the drive behind outlawing physical fiat cash is because it represents a bearer instrument and they have gradually side-lined or outlawed other forms of bearer instruments over the years. Bitcoin, gold and physical cash, stock certificates (if you can get them) should all be held closely.

Bitcoin is a bearer instrument par excellence in the digital realm.

[altcoinUK]

QUESTION: Marty, at the Conference you said we could conclude this in the first quarter if we get the alignment. It does not look like we will get the alignment since gold is up and the Dow is down. This is why you have been saying this looked like it was postponing into 2017?

ANSWER: Yes. We could have concluded this here in 2016, but the Reversals determine the trend. Trend is ALWAYS defined by the Bullish and the Bearish Reversals. Those who expect forecasts to be one-sided opinions are not traders and will typically lose their shirt as 90% of people who try to trade do. A real trader MUST know where he is right and where he is wrong at all times since the market is the only thing that is ever infallible. Those who expect one-sided forecasts never survive. Those who do not grasp why we have Bullish and Bearish Reversals defining the trend claiming that is why we are always right are blind fools. You cannot elect both the Bearish and the Bullish on the same day. These type of people will be separated from their money real fast in the coming Sling-Shot because they are incapable of understanding how markets even move. This is a learning experience and when there is nothing left to learn, it is time to die. So those who are incapable of learning, well I suppose they are just a waste of humanity that drive the rest of us in awe watching their stupidity repeat over and over again.

True, 2016 would be the 5 years down from the 2011 high in gold. But because of the spit with 2012 being the highest annual closing, this has left the door open to the conclusion being pushed off into 2017. If we got the final low for gold in the first quarter then a low in the Dow as well would be the alignment that confidence in government would collapse now. But when the Dow closed year-end lower and gold closed above our number, then this is why I stated gold is not as weak as it appeared. It then began electing the Bullish Reversals, not the Bearish, and that gave us the indication we would get a rally BETWEEN the Benchmarks at a very minimum. This was only reinforced by the closing in the Euro  where we warned the Euro should rise to 113 at minimum and 116 optimal. The decline in the dollar should have helped gold, but it will also intensify the deflation in Europe and help to push their banking system over the cliff as is happening right now.

The talk around the street is claiming the moves are a lack of confidence in general that central banks can control the economy. Well that’s nice, for they never could. But this is looking very dicey to say the least. That is why we have to just following the Reversals and the Timing. We have heard every excuse to explain the trend from the stock market is now following oil to gold has rallied because the Fed will not raise rates. Honestly, this all sounds like gibberish.

The markets are preparing for a sling-shot move that will make most people’s nose bleed. Gold has reached so far the 1263 level so there is still room on the upside yet before encountering resistance. The two key numbers to watch now are the 1309 and 1363 levels. Pay attention to the Dow. If we can closing below 15875 we have a shot of finally breaking last year’s low.

Also pay attention to silver. It has not kept pace with gold showing the bulk of the gold move has been short-covering. Here we need a closing for the week above 1643 to be comparable with gold just above the 1209 number. We also have a Weekly Bullish at 1544. Silver is begrudgingly following which does not speak well for the long-term sustainability here.

So in the end, we will set the stage for all this craziness moving to extremes. Then ask yourself this question? Are you willing to hand your money to government and ask it hold it for you? If we are concerned about banks, and we are concerned about government, then there is not much life but to move to the private sector. So when rates go negative, a 1% yield in a blue-chip stock looks like haven. That is the shift on the horizon from public to private. We have to get the weak-minded running into the arms of government before the markets will slaughter them for their stupidity.

I think he means with the notion of "If we can closing below 15,875 we have a shot of finally breaking last year’s low" that if we close below by end of the week. Usually he means the closing at the end of week. So it doesn't matter in that context that today we closed at 15,660. I am just pointing this out before people run and start to short DJIA. Which I am doing btw LoL 2 hours ago when it got to 15,650 I shorted DJIA with a March put. I think Down Jones should catch up with Russel 2000 which is already at May 1 2013 level. I expect Down Jones will break the 15,150 support by end of February. I am hedging this trade with shorting SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) to avoid a major screw up scenario.

[Netzer]

QUESTION: Marty, at the Conference you said we could conclude this in the first quarter if we get the alignment. It does not look like we will get the alignment since gold is up and the Dow is down. This is why you have been saying this looked like it was postponing into 2017?

ANSWER: Yes. We could have concluded this here in 2016, but the Reversals determine the trend. Trend is ALWAYS defined by the Bullish and the Bearish Reversals. Those who expect forecasts to be one-sided opinions are not traders and will typically lose their shirt as 90% of people who try to trade do. A real trader MUST know where he is right and where he is wrong at all times since the market is the only thing that is ever infallible. Those who expect one-sided forecasts never survive. Those who do not grasp why we have Bullish and Bearish Reversals defining the trend claiming that is why we are always right are blind fools. You cannot elect both the Bearish and the Bullish on the same day. These type of people will be separated from their money real fast in the coming Sling-Shot because they are incapable of understanding how markets even move. This is a learning experience and when there is nothing left to learn, it is time to die. So those who are incapable of learning, well I suppose they are just a waste of humanity that drive the rest of us in awe watching their stupidity repeat over and over again.

True, 2016 would be the 5 years down from the 2011 high in gold. But because of the spit with 2012 being the highest annual closing, this has left the door open to the conclusion being pushed off into 2017. If we got the final low for gold in the first quarter then a low in the Dow as well would be the alignment that confidence in government would collapse now. But when the Dow closed year-end lower and gold closed above our number, then this is why I stated gold is not as weak as it appeared. It then began electing the Bullish Reversals, not the Bearish, and that gave us the indication we would get a rally BETWEEN the Benchmarks at a very minimum. This was only reinforced by the closing in the Euro  where we warned the Euro should rise to 113 at minimum and 116 optimal. The decline in the dollar should have helped gold, but it will also intensify the deflation in Europe and help to push their banking system over the cliff as is happening right now.

The talk around the street is claiming the moves are a lack of confidence in general that central banks can control the economy. Well that’s nice, for they never could. But this is looking very dicey to say the least. That is why we have to just following the Reversals and the Timing. We have heard every excuse to explain the trend from the stock market is now following oil to gold has rallied because the Fed will not raise rates. Honestly, this all sounds like gibberish.

The markets are preparing for a sling-shot move that will make most people’s nose bleed. Gold has reached so far the 1263 level so there is still room on the upside yet before encountering resistance. The two key numbers to watch now are the 1309 and 1363 levels. Pay attention to the Dow. If we can closing below 15875 we have a shot of finally breaking last year’s low.

Also pay attention to silver. It has not kept pace with gold showing the bulk of the gold move has been short-covering. Here we need a closing for the week above 1643 to be comparable with gold just above the 1209 number. We also have a Weekly Bullish at 1544. Silver is begrudgingly following which does not speak well for the long-term sustainability here.

So in the end, we will set the stage for all this craziness moving to extremes. Then ask yourself this question? Are you willing to hand your money to government and ask it hold it for you? If we are concerned about banks, and we are concerned about government, then there is not much life but to move to the private sector. So when rates go negative, a 1% yield in a blue-chip stock looks like haven. That is the shift on the horizon from public to private. We have to get the weak-minded running into the arms of government before the markets will slaughter them for their stupidity.

I think he means with the notion of "If we can closing below 15,875 we have a shot of finally breaking last year’s low" that if we close below by end of the week. Usually he means the closing at the end of week. So it doesn't matter in that context that today we closed at 15,660. I am just pointing this out before people run and start to short DJIA. Which I am doing btw LoL 2 hours ago when it got to 15,650 I shorted DJIA with a March put. I think Down Jones should catch up with Russel 2000 which is already at May 1 2013 level. I expect Down Jones will break the 15,150 support by end of February. I am hedging this trade with shorting SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) to avoid a major screw up scenario.

What is the size of the trade altcoinuk?

[TPTB_need_war]

As JPM guy explains, interesting to note people are not fleeing to the safety of paper or bank deposits, but gold.

The anchor in the video also mentions that every defensive trade is so crowded right now, the reply is that people are just treading water. To me this is another small sign of the crowding into sovereign bonds.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-11/jpm-ficc-head-people-have-more-confidence-gold-bank-deposits-or-paper-money

speaking of crowded defensive trades, physical fiat cash is clearly being delineated as a different form of money to digital fiat bank accounts, being subject to bail-in, confiscation, freezes, bank-holidays, etc. I'm expecting at some point to see physical fiat cash trade at a premium to digital fiat cash, as much as bearer bonds have and bearer stocks have versus their counter-party impaired representations in the past.

Also I think this is a large part of the drive behind outlawing physical fiat cash is because it represents a bearer instrument and they have gradually side-lined or outlawed other forms of bearer instruments over the years. Bitcoin, gold and physical cash, stock certificates (if you can get them) should all be held closely.

Bitcoin is a bearer instrument par excellence in the digital realm.

In theory, the best bearer instrument would be a crypto currency that is widely used by the masses for microtransactions, because the government would find it impossible to ban or crack down on a social networking phenomenon involving zillions of small transactions all over the globe.

It would also help a lot of the full nodes centralization problem of all existing crypto currencies was fixed; and fixed in a way that enables secure instant transactions.

I switched from an anonymity focus to this new focus. I am implementing now. Stay tuned.

The issue is the vast majority of the population will be perfectly happy with the new world order

Not necessarily. It depends. They are fattened and appeased right now because the "free" debt money spigot is open wide. On the backside of 2017, they are not going to like the pain, which will open opportunities to get them interested in online commerce so they can earn some income during the downturn coming. The elite know this and that is why will try to lock everything down with capital controls from 2017 to 2020 at least, so they can complete their global monetary reset.

So the key is to work on projects which won't be in violation of any capital controls. Think small such as microtransactions. The government can't possible put capital controls on microtransactions.

I have a specific plan now (which wasn't formulated when I spoke to you all in private) and it is doesn't involve air drops to n00bs. Also I have diversified my plan so that if the crypto currency aspect of my project fails, I will still have the social networking aspect which I can continue.

[Risk Mgmt]

Happy Friday Folks,

Can experts here please decipher MA's most updated cryptic message on what to expect from GOLD and where to buy on expected dip etc.

I was hoping for Gold & Metal Miners to tank during FEB - but they seem to be going up and up. We're still in first quarter so perhaps I will have chance to buy lower when they do fall....if they fall --  WILL THEY FALL?


Thank you all.

For all those MA Haters.... Please note MA is not perfect (agreed) -- but his idea is interesting and another way of looking at Economics.   If you feel another economist is better and 100% accurate 100% of the time...please direct me to him.

BOTTOM LINE - NOBODY is right 100% - 100% of the time....but MA does decent work.  Call him what you wish.

Peace to all

[Wekkel]

For all those MA Haters.... Please note MA is not perfect (agreed) -- but his idea is interesting and another way of looking at Economics.   If you feel another economist is better and 100% accurate 100% of the time...please direct me to him.

I would say that Jim Willy comes with similar drama. Read between the lines.

[Risk Mgmt]

For all those MA Haters.... Please note MA is not perfect (agreed) -- but his idea is interesting and another way of looking at Economics.   If you feel another economist is better and 100% accurate 100% of the time...please direct me to him.

I would say that Jim Willy comes with similar drama. Read between the lines.

Thanks will Check him out...  Have a great day Wekkel