Martin Armstrong Discussion

[OROBTC]

...

South Africa's President Zuma now wants to take over white-owned land there.  A post at Zero Hedge mentioned that he may invite the Russians in.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-05/zimbabwe-20-south-africa-president-proposes-land-expropriation-without-compensation

Hmm.  Russia and S Africa get really tight, they would essentially have a world monopoly on platinum and palladium production.  Diversity in precious metals has value too.  Pt and Pd have different applications (and fundamentals) than just gold and silver.

[sidhujag]

r0ach, what is your general thesis on how the debt bubble will be resolved/play out?

Well, first things first, in a recapitalization scenario the USD would likely lose reserve status so the USD is the big loser no matter what happens when it comes to purchasing power.  The reserve would then either shift to gold or SDR. The seigniorage fee on a $100 bill is already enormous.  It's something like an 11 cent cost of production representing $100 when paper money has always been a derivative of gold and silver in the past, so they can always just claim the total amount of "SDR" equals the entire world debt then say all USD notes are worth 25% of SDRs, the Yen would be worth 5% or whatever, etc.

It's a stupid system that requires a defacto world government and world currency, so as long as just a few big people like Russia resist, we can avoid Jew world order banker enslavement.  The next is the scenario they don't want to do but always have planned as a backup: revaluing gold to an enormous level ($10k+) that gets the system out of deflationary collapse.

So, basically all that needs to happen is nations like Russia, Iran, and a couple others run out the clock on western Jewish banking to force them to revalue gold, which simultaneously prevents a world govt slave system at the same time.  Unlike FOA, I also believe silver will drastically increase in price with gold.  Many arab countries and nations like India have huge amounts of gold now, so rather than revaluing gold to $20k an ounce making everyone in India the new kings of the world, they would likely revalue gold to $10k and have silver rise in similar proportion just to prevent places like India from becoming stupidly powerful for no reason.

No, "cryptocurrency" is not going to take over anything like Sidhujag claims.  Even if you wanted it to (which is a horrible idea), it's far too early in it's evolution with garbage scalability to deal with a kind of imminent world banking collapse problem.  It would be like asking an engineer from the year 1700 to design a moon capsule.  Physical currency is also a basic human right if there ever was one like the right to defend yourself, so unless they can bring in total oppressive world govt, people are going to be using physical money in some way and never just digital only.  You honestly need to be flat out stupid to want a digital only currency since you'll always be at the mercy of whoever runs it, and someone will always run it unlike metals.

Gold is a weaker form of money than crypto. The market already realizes this. The problem with you gold bugs is that you do not evolve since you hold positions you cannot see the evolution that is taking place. You have to be flat out stupid to claim gold is a better form of money over crypto. Gold is not even better than fiat. Current fiat took over gold remember. Having physical representation is easy once the systems are in place to prove ownership. You have to think outside the box pinky.

You need to stop flat out lying.  It's completely impossible for you to not know bitcoin has solved zero problems whatsoever concerning money.  It doesn't solve byzantine generals, it has no Nash equilibrium, it's full of counter party risk, it's designed to centralize, doesn't scale, not fungible, not a store of value, etc.  Hence it's zero competition to gold and silver in current state.  You don't get to make believe that all these problems, which most are unsolvable, will magically be fixed someday in the future and claim bitcoin is better than metals.  Bitcoin in current form is literally trash compared to gold and silver.  

It's a linked list with a get rich quick scheme built on top of it, nothing more, nothing less.  Everything about it is completely arbitrary in nature.  It does not isolate any type of problem and solve it in an objective manner.  It's a Rube Goldberg machine.

Lol nice try. Nothing you said is true. Fiat is better than gold is for money. Gold has a horrible MoE. Fiat is better in every way except SoV and crypto tops fiat in that regard.

[marcus_of_augustus]

You need to stop flat out lying.  It's completely impossible for you to not know bitcoin has solved zero problems whatsoever concerning money.  It doesn't solve byzantine generals, it has no Nash equilibrium, it's full of counter party risk, it's designed to centralize, doesn't scale, not fungible, not a store of value, etc.  Hence it's zero competition to gold and silver in current state.  You don't get to make believe that all these problems, which most are unsolvable, will magically be fixed someday in the future and claim bitcoin is better than metals.  Bitcoin in current form is literally trash compared to gold and silver.  

It's a linked list with a get rich quick scheme built on top of it, nothing more, nothing less.  Everything about it is completely arbitrary in nature.  It does not isolate any type of problem and solve it in an objective manner.  It's a Rube Goldberg machine.

[Risk Mgmt]

I hope I'm permitted to ask silly questions.

At present - if BITCOIN and all other Crypto Currencies are indeed Currencies - In which Economy is one betting and/or investing in?
I ask this from a wide variety of ways - primarily from Ethical perspective.

When you buy stock - you invest in company risk/ reward >>> production of services or goods etc etc
When you by bonds or USD or EURO - you invest in that nations govt / economy relative to the currency you swapped etc

Sorry if my questions are silly - looking forward to guidance.

Thank you

[r0ach]

Where were you the day the piss off Anonymint Monero bull run began?

http://steemit.com/money/@r0achtheunsavory/the-r0ach-report-16-monero-chart-looks-good-right-now

[OROBTC]

I hope I'm permitted to ask silly questions.

At present - if BITCOIN and all other Crypto Currencies are indeed Currencies - In which Economy is one betting and/or investing in?
I ask this from a wide variety of ways - primarily from Ethical perspective.

When you buy stock - you invest in company risk/ reward >>> production of services or goods etc etc
When you by bonds or USD or EURO - you invest in that nations govt / economy relative to the currency you swapped etc

Sorry if my questions are silly - looking forward to guidance.

Thank you

There could be a lot of legitimate reasons to invest in Bitcoin, or any other legitimate investment!  But, many who buy stocks, for example, are speculating, they really don't care about the long-run issues of the company (or even its main market / home country).

Same with Bitcoin.  Including myself.  I hope to make some money off of it (so far so good).

You could make a strong case that buying Bitcoin shows a lack of faith in .gov fiat currencies.

[OROBTC]

...

Here is a nice little summary that even our friends r0ach and sloanf might enjoy:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/sovereign-debt-crisis/illinois-poster-child-for-the-coming-sovereign-debt-crisis/

Illinois wants to raise income taxes by 32% while doing nothing about their REAL problems (high taxes being one, overly generous pensions another, corruption, many other problems).  "Illinois is done, stick a fork in it."

Illinois may wind becoming abandoned by productive people.  I just hope that those who LEAVE Illinois do not try to impose their Socialist ideas in their new homes (FL, TX, IN, etc.).  Colorado is already suffering Californication...

[Risk Mgmt]

I hope I'm permitted to ask silly questions.

At present - if BITCOIN and all other Crypto Currencies are indeed Currencies - In which Economy is one betting and/or investing in?
I ask this from a wide variety of ways - primarily from Ethical perspective.

When you buy stock - you invest in company risk/ reward >>> production of services or goods etc etc
When you by bonds or USD or EURO - you invest in that nations govt / economy relative to the currency you swapped etc

Sorry if my questions are silly - looking forward to guidance.

Thank you

There could be a lot of legitimate reasons to invest in Bitcoin, or any other legitimate investment!  But, many who buy stocks, for example, are speculating, they really don't care about the long-run issues of the company (or even its main market / home country).

Same with Bitcoin.  Including myself.  I hope to make some money off of it (so far so good).

You could make a strong case that buying Bitcoin shows a lack of faith in .gov fiat currencies.

Thank you OROBTC

I get what you're saying - presently its all Speculating.   I assume all govt are watching as case study for future single currency.
Those whom don't opt in will be excluded from this trade bloc (my opinion)

[r0ach]

Much to Anonymint's horror, Monero is starting to look bullish to me from here.

Your always the opposite play to me.. i think ill sell some xmr and.buy some eth here

RIP Sidhujag

[OROBTC]

...

Armstrong has two pieces today on refugees in Europe:

Austria has posted some soldiers and equipment on its border with Italy.  Italy is pissed, they are getting a BAD DEAL from the EU.  And who is behind much of the cross-Med migrant traffic?  George Soros.  The "refugees" are mostly economic migrants:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/refugees/austria-using-troops-to-stop-refugee-migration/


SWEDEN is cancelling next year's big music festival rather than cracking down on RAPEFUGEES.  Europe is toast. 

[I have seen LOTS of Arab and African migrants here in Limoges (France), Limoges is not at all an economic powerhouse, no factories around that I saw...]

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/refugees/austria-using-troops-to-stop-refugee-migration/

[jbreher]

The "refugees" are mostly economic migrants:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/refugees/austria-using-troops-to-stop-refugee-migration/

"These people are given everything for free, nothing like any immigrant who came to the USA. This has had a tendency to reduce the incentive to work. They need not find a job to survive. They survive on the state alone and at levels of 80%+ of what they would earn in wages."

Stupid policy guaranteed to fail. But it's 'compassionate', I guess.

(BTW OROBTC, you linked the same article twice)

[OROBTC]

The "refugees" are mostly economic migrants:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/refugees/austria-using-troops-to-stop-refugee-migration/

"These people are given everything for free, nothing like any immigrant who came to the USA. This has had a tendency to reduce the incentive to work. They need not find a job to survive. They survive on the state alone and at levels of 80%+ of what they would earn in wages."

Stupid policy guaranteed to fail. But it's 'compassionate', I guess.

(BTW OROBTC, you linked the same article twice)

The dangers of using an iPhone on the road...

His article on Sweden cancelling next year's music show is there today.  I have NO IDEA what has happened to the descendants of the Vikings.

O/T a bit, Sweden apparently has big problems with credit card and ATM cards, cashless society attracting hi-tech fraud.

[minor-transgression]

@r0ach - " Yea, I read that a long time ago (although the math and economics in it are retarded)."

I'm curious. When, and in what context?
Also, there's very little math in it and the economics are at least as good as some of the stuff
that passes for economic thought today. Again, I'm interested in you thoughts - I see fundamental
contradictions, not flawed processes.   

[r0ach]

I have NO IDEA what has happened to the descendants of the Vikings.

@r0ach - " Yea, I read that a long time ago (although the math and economics in it are retarded)."

I'm curious. When, and in what context?
Also, there's very little math in it and the economics are at least as good as some of the stuff
that passes for economic thought today. Again, I'm interested in you thoughts - I see fundamental
contradictions, not flawed processes.  

I'll look at it tomorrow or something for examples.  Too tired to sort through hours of silent weapons for quiet wars at the moment.

[OROBTC]

...

I guess Armstrong think that Germany is completely DONE, note the four most recent articles, first one notes Germany's pension is falling apart (no surprise).

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/germany/germany-pensions-system-crisis/

Merkel failed at her hosting the G-20 summit (Trump, China and Russia won):

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/politics/merkels-failed-g20-summit/

What, low interest rates are failing in Germany too?

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/german-secretary-economics-warns-low-interest-rates-have-failed/

George Soros MAY have helped fund all those protests in Hamburg (just rumors as of now).

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/civil-unrest/g20-hamburg-protest-was-closer-to-the-start-of-civil-war/


I suppose Armstrong has NO INTEREST in investing in Germany...

[Traxo]

Armstrong has hinted that it is all in the detail of the database and that the computation of possible patterns is unbounded and
thus his outcomes are probabilistic only w.r.t. to the relative level of complexity explored, i.e. generalized markets versus specialised.
So now we know why he can not model Bitcoin (no applicable database with sufficient detail):

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/ai-computers/true-ai-and-fake-neural-net-forecasting-programs/

[r0ach]

Armstrong has hinted that it is all in the detail of the database and that the computation of possible patterns is unbounded and
thus his outcomes are probabilistic only w.r.t. to the relative level of complexity explored, i.e. generalized markets versus specialised.
So now we know why he can not model Bitcoin (no applicable database with sufficient detail):

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/ai-computers/true-ai-and-fake-neural-net-forecasting-programs/

That article looks like he was debunking himself in the process.  I mean, so what if he *claims* to have data going back beyond 1971, he doesn't have data encompassing all possibilities.  Then you have the Joseph Tainter quote:  "Collapse is rapid simplification on a mass scale".  When that happens, actions in the present will resemble actions in the past of which records were not kept.

[OROBTC]

Armstrong has hinted that it is all in the detail of the database and that the computation of possible patterns is unbounded and
thus his outcomes are probabilistic only w.r.t. to the relative level of complexity explored, i.e. generalized markets versus specialised.
So now we know why he can not model Bitcoin (no applicable database with sufficient detail):

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/ai-computers/true-ai-and-fake-neural-net-forecasting-programs/

That article looks like he was debunking himself in the process.  I mean, so what if he *claims* to have data going back beyond 1971, he doesn't have data encompassing all possibilities.  Then you have the Joseph Tainter quote:  "Collapse is rapid simplification on a mass scale".  When that happens, actions in the present will resemble actions in the past of which records were not kept.

Maybe that is Armstrong's way of stating that he has no idea of what will happen to Bitcoin (and its price).

If he sticks to his knitting (mainly looks at LONG history), perhaps his record is better.  BTC is new, and perhaps he has not well-accounted for crypto currency.  We're still new in this game.

Gold is holding up pretty well vs. BTC over the past week or so (yeah, yeah, I know, it's only a short time-frame), but many people ONLY think short-term.  Nice to see gold outperforming BTC for a change.

*   *   *

Tainter is an author I have often seen quoted, but I have not read his books.  Many smart people seem to like his ideas.

[sidhujag]

Armstrong is alike you and me his supercomputer cant predict shit in short term for when it matters
 Im wondering about his rei forcast. He called a top in 2017.. we seen the rei top? I think rei index doubled since then and was a bottom when he posted as a top. Again I make money off of ppl like him I do the opposite. Until he proves otherwise... but then again I was always more prophetic than him in predictions so I stopped reading his stuff now.

[Traxo]

Little bird asks @r0ach to link to anything AnonyMint has written to justify his assertion that AnonyMint is pissed off if Monero rises or where AnonyMint predicted Monero would not rise at this time?
Perhaps @roach is referring to some yet unpublished/unfinished anonymity blog which makes no statement whatsoever about price objectives for the price of Monero
(and in fact those who were trying to trade based on that document were told to not do so because price is not short-term correlated to technical realities which are future looking (as competition will rise to enact that sledgehammer of the little bird’s insights).
We all know @r0ach is still butthurt for selling BTC at $600 and buying silver.
And for not buying LTC at 0.006 when AnonyMint told him to (which is still going to 0.05 btw and make sure you sell all forks of BTC and hold only the original).


EDIT:

Im wondering about his rei forcast. He called a top in 2017.. we seen the rei top?

Definitely so in London, Switzerland, Vancouver, etc.. He has blogged about all those toppings over the past few months.

The theme has always been that Europe would top out a couple/few of years before the USA and we would have a stampede of capital into the dollar and dollar assets as the final topping in the USA (currently projecting roughly 2020 - 2022ish).
Right now there is a deadcat bounce in the Euro as the last gasp before the European collapse ensues in 2018.
The deadcat bounce is because of for example the election of Macron in France, the pooling of all the sovereign bonds into an asset backed by the core of Germany (which means when it explodes it takes down Germany also), and what he writes about as linked.

I was always more prophetic than him in predictions

Just because you say so right. Stroke that non-objective pride.