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Author Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion  (Read 615552 times)
trc4949
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October 18, 2018, 11:35:52 AM
 #4581

We are now only 14 trading days away from the USA election.

It just occurred to me almost exactly what is about to happen to the stock market.

Remember 2016 November election ?

I think we are about to get a repeat of that during the next FOURTEEN trading DAYS

All you have to do is LOOK at the 2016 price action into early November 2016.

We will swing down there hard after a bit more choppiness this and next week.

So price will suffer extreme anxiety into that election date and then immediately after you will see a HUGE upwards surging rally that does not look back and goes vertical higher and very swiftly.

You will see the sp500 get to 3000 faster than a new york minute after that.

The theory ?  The current premise is that the democrats will take over.  But I think the opposite will occur and that will send the market rocketing higher same as in 2016.

So it is looking like the max stretch point of the slingshot is election day... then nothing but higher from there.
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October 18, 2018, 03:22:17 PM
 #4582



Maybe he also does´t say buy here or sell here due to legal reasons. On every trading blog, website or video they always post a disclaimer saying trade at your own risk etc. Not sure how this law works but it could be part of it. If he posts, 100% this will go down and it goes up maybe he could set himself up to be sued, again.

About the Dow weekly array, it clearly shows next week 10/22 as the turning point with a directional change. So this week, if the arrays are (always) correct, MUST close lower. If it does not how will Armstrong be able to justify it? This time there is no posible cycle inversion, panic cycle, composite 2, empirical etc. turning points. The array is as clear as it gets in this case.



That is entirely NOT true.  I've subscribed to various other newsletters, and NO such restriction exists, possibly with the exception of micro-cap stocks.  I've seen how people manipulate the trading record EVEN when everything is made available to the subscribers, with all sorts of tricks that I can even write a book about all the tricks.  VERY FEW are totally honest.  That shows you the overall record of this particular business of stock market newsletter.  It is simply terrible.  And all the facts show that.  Extremely few people can even beat the index ETF on a consistent basis.  Armstrong will not be any exception.  Warren Buffet is one of the few exceptions, but the way he invests, NO ONE can repeat that, because he TAKES OVER the management of his investment most of the time, and then it becomes really running a business successfully, INSTEAD of investing successfully.  That helps tremendously to boost his investing record.

If so many other newsletters can post the hypothetical or his personal trading record in their newsletters, so can Armstrong.  He doesn't do it, most likely because it will tell you the real story of all the trading failures.

Again, I'm here posting essentially pro-bono for your benefits, and all I'm saying is to truly hold Armstrong to his own forecast arrays & words and collect the statistics.
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October 18, 2018, 09:00:50 PM
 #4583

We are now only 14 trading days away from the USA election.

It just occurred to me almost exactly what is about to happen to the stock market.

Remember 2016 November election ?

I think we are about to get a repeat of that during the next FOURTEEN trading DAYS

All you have to do is LOOK at the 2016 price action into early November 2016.

We will swing down there hard after a bit more choppiness this and next week.

So price will suffer extreme anxiety into that election date and then immediately after you will see a HUGE upwards surging rally that does not look back and goes vertical higher and very swiftly.

You will see the sp500 get to 3000 faster than a new york minute after that.

The theory ?  The current premise is that the democrats will take over.  But I think the opposite will occur and that will send the market rocketing higher same as in 2016.

So it is looking like the max stretch point of the slingshot is election day... then nothing but higher from there.

This^  Do we finally get a Slingshot move during the election?  I agree, the markets should take off if the Reps get in.  If they don't and the Democrats win..what happens to the markets?

https://vimeo.com/198896912 - watch from 2hrs50mins
'..Rule in the DOW - before the Market makes a major move, it goes opposite and scares everyone.  On election day the DOW made a big move down 800 points.  17,300 was the Double Monthly Bearish - it stopped at 17,400 - THE FALSE MOVE.  Then reversed and went up.  ..'

Latest blog (as posted above) says if there is a daily close in the DOW below 24,898 then we will retest the lows..perhaps the DOW will close just above that number, fail to take out that reversal and then slingshot up?  Obvs that number can change depending upon price action between now and election day...
However, Armstrong has said 'is the trade of the century knocking on our door?'  I believe this means a slingshot will happen to shake the tree, then shoot up..?
But, that's my opinion and he says just follow the reversals and be unemotional about it.

If 24,898 is penetrated, my notes say the next Weekly Bear is 24,101 and the next Monthly Bear is 23,997.20 (my notes are a mess so could be wrong!)
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October 19, 2018, 06:13:31 PM
 #4584

Well so far it is starting to look like the spx cash will close UNDER 2767 today which. Ould set up a mini crash into the new moon on Friday October 24th .

 Notable also is that arch Crawford said that Uranus opposes the new moon on October 24th which means revolution.

Uranus also opposes aries ? On November 6th election day which also means revolution
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October 19, 2018, 07:14:56 PM
 #4585

On the weekly level, the week of the 8th, then this week, then next week, shows a trending composite. Last week was the low. This week can be either a lower or higher close because there was no intraday low this week compared to last's. If it closes higher, that's supposed to mean trending up. And a lower close would mean down. Therefore, a green close this week means we should make an intraday or higher close next week. A lower close means we can make an intraday or lower weekly close next week. That is just what I think based on how the arrays are supposed to work.
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October 20, 2018, 01:31:34 PM
 #4586

many market participants are willing to just say something for the General PR of his personality, thanks to bitcoin
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October 23, 2018, 09:06:19 AM
 #4587

has anyone ever actually had a question answered by MA? The one time I emailed him (a long time ago about bitcoin, maybe in 2015) I got a response from his staff that he does not in fact take any questions by email or from people.

So where do these questions on his blog come from? This is something that has bothered me ever since, despite enjoying his blog. Which I take with a grain of salt.

Also good to see him still being discussed here.




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bikefront
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October 23, 2018, 03:51:11 PM
 #4588

Yes I had a question answered a while ago. However, his staff answers FAQs frequently for most part.

For today's drop, did anyone use the 'daily closing under numbers'? It only went for the SandP yesterday, but still. Will be interesting to see if we close today for the Dow and the Nasdaq. It doesn't look like it will hold and therefore we can see another big drop later.

The Weekly Arrays was supposed to show that we were going up in isolation, but again, they need to be coupled with the Reversals.
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October 23, 2018, 08:26:15 PM
 #4589

Never mind. What a bounce!
trc4949
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October 24, 2018, 05:14:34 PM
 #4590

Just got an email from Martin Armstrong.

"Don't miss the trade of the century"

The Armstrong Computer Model called the peak in the NASDAQ in August. It called the peak in the S&P 500 in September and the Dow’s high during the first week of October. Next up, a Panic Cycle in November, which coincides with the critical turning point on the Armstrong Pi Model on Thursday, November 22.

The US mid-term elections, the Italian budget crisis, and the Brexit negotiations are the latest catalysts for the continued shift from public to private assets, which will have massive implications for the bond market. The models are also pointing to a critical juncture for stocks, interest rates, and currencies. At the World Economic Conference (November 16 and 17) we will explore the current trends and give specific numbers defining the next move on all the key markets with a special focus on the potential set-up for the “Trade of the Century.”

The key going forward for investors and money managers is to be properly positioned with the trend.

At the World Economic Conference, we will decode the trends that are unfolding using our proven proprietary models. The volatility ahead will either become a favorable trading opportunity or a devastating loss depending on your ability to understand the trend in motion. This is an event you can’t afford to miss.



He must see something happening imminently because they tend to time the sending of these emails with huge market moves to get better sign up rates....

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October 24, 2018, 08:09:01 PM
 #4591

No, as I said previously, Armstrong ALWAYS tries to manipulate readers' emotions by writing blog post or sending this email out at the MOST VOLATILE time.

I seriously don't remember that he made ANY calls in respect the the recent market high.  He has NEVER said that those ARE the high.  And from this email, it is NOT clear whether they ARE the high.

BUT if they ARE the high, you will no doubt hear Armstrong blogging everywhere and boasting that he CALLED the high.

Darn, if I see this email earlier, I would have bought into the low today.  I want to take the opposite trade of Armstrong's emails/blog.
NotFromReddit
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October 24, 2018, 08:27:23 PM
 #4592


I seriously don't remember that he made ANY calls in respect the the recent market high.  He has NEVER said that those ARE the high.  And from this email, it is NOT clear whether they ARE the high.



Yea, me neither
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October 24, 2018, 09:34:10 PM
 #4593

By the way, don't you "love" the way Armstrong states itin his promotional email, using the term "trade of the century" over and over again?

How much more emotion is he going to stir in the readers that

1. The trade will be super-profitable for the longest term possible.
2. The trade should be kind of safe as well, since it's "of the CENTURTY".
3. And yeah, you don't know what it is, because you have to shell out > $1000 for more ambiguous forecasts at the conference.

The sling-slot scenario for US stock market that Armstrong has been describing, I believe, will NOT come for a LONG time.  Only when a nation goes into the downward spiral like Venezuela will face such rise in private assets.  I used to buy into his garbage talk of USA dis-integrating into several parts and US dollar becoming junk (after 2032??  Not sure on the timing, he is always not clear.)  Now I think independently on my own.  USA will be very FAR from reaching that point.  When it does, sure, stocks will go up VERTICALLY.  That is the only way that I can think of for a VERTICAL market to happen.

But, I don't really think that doomsday is coming anytime soon.

And why does he keep mentioning sling-shot?  Because he wants you to think that you can make a super-big profit, if you could just listen and subscribe to him.

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October 25, 2018, 12:15:08 AM
 #4594

"The 23rd was a Directional Change and penetrating that low we would expect further downside. Keep in mind that the Weekly Bearish lies at 24965 and we have penetrated that level intraday. A closing beneath that level on Friday will signal we will most likely move lower into the week of 11/05. The bearishness is all about the elections. Real capital investment is deeply concerned that the Democrats are so vindictive that they will seriously harm the economy just to reverse whatever Trump has done just for spite. This decline has NOTHING to do with interest rates or trade. It is about politics.
We have a Daily Bearish at 25052 and a closing below that will tend to point to lower numbers ahead. We will see another Directional Change on Friday. We are not yet through this consolidation period and the main support lies just under the 24000 level starting at 23995."

This was up today. In any case, I did post the previous call which occurred Armstrong posted early for the Dow, which stated that it was likely we would re-test support due to the failure of opening above the previous high, which was a correct one. The exact numbers were not given, only some bounce points. I also did post a string of intraday posts, which, if you look at the times posted, were very accurate and only a few points off from the lows and in some cases the actual high. I found his calls during the volatility helpful, and better than I would have done, personally.
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October 25, 2018, 12:38:21 AM
 #4595


From Yahoo for DIA (Dow Jones 30 ETF)
                                                                       CLOSE                                   
Oct 24, 2018   252.40   252.89   245.18   245.64   245.64   7,624,261  Down from 23rd
Oct 23, 2018   249.04   252.93   247.52   251.67   251.67   7,339,100  Down from 22nd
Oct 22, 2018   255.07   255.44   252.20   253.04   253.04   4,662,600  Down from 19th
Oct 19, 2018   254.23   255.98   253.34   254.32   254.32   6,618,300

Didn't you quote from Armstrong saying that 23rd was a Directional Change???

So does he have an English problem or a forecasting problem?  There is no direction change at all.

NOTE that 23rd was a Tuesday.  So he MUST have meant that to be a daily call.
If it was a call on weekly basis, then he would have used either 19th or 22nd.  I think almost everything would use 19th, but I "think" sometimes Armstrong uses Monday instead of Friday.

So that was a DIRECTION change?

WHY would ANYONE call a Directional Change when there is no change in direction?  If the term of directional change doesn't mean change in direction of the prices, then what the heck is that??  And please don't go back and interpret it as such, when Armstrong gets it right.

If reversing direction is directional change, and price continuing is also directional change, then this guy (Armstrong) really has some (forecasting) problem.

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October 25, 2018, 01:02:13 AM
 #4596


From Yahoo for DIA (Dow Jones 30 ETF)
                                                                       CLOSE                                   
Oct 24, 2018   252.40   252.89   245.18   245.64   245.64   7,624,261  Down from 23rd
Oct 23, 2018   249.04   252.93   247.52   251.67   251.67   7,339,100  Down from 22nd
Oct 22, 2018   255.07   255.44   252.20   253.04   253.04   4,662,600  Down from 19th
Oct 19, 2018   254.23   255.98   253.34   254.32   254.32   6,618,300

Didn't you quote from Armstrong saying that 23rd was a Directional Change???

So does he have an English problem or a forecasting problem?  There is no direction change at all.

NOTE that 23rd was a Tuesday.  So he MUST have meant that to be a daily call.
If it was a call on weekly basis, then he would have used either 19th or 22nd.  I think almost everything would use 19th, but I "think" sometimes Armstrong uses Monday instead of Friday.

So that was a DIRECTION change?

WHY would ANYONE call a Directional Change when there is no change in direction?  If the term of directional change doesn't mean change in direction of the prices, then what the heck is that??  And please don't go back and interpret it as such, when Armstrong gets it right.

If reversing direction is directional change, and price continuing is also directional change, then this guy (Armstrong) really has some (forecasting) problem.


he usually isnt correct like majority of market oracles. Just stick to his long term analysis and even that im iffy on.
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October 25, 2018, 01:37:52 AM
 #4597

A long term call without any concrete date is as good as saying that the both of the hands of clock will be overlapped twice everyday.

I have been waiting earnestly to call him wrong on his plague cycle call from 2017 to 2020.  That is a span of 4 years, a really long period for any kinds of predictions, but ....

He said that international outbreak would occur by this time.  There is nothing much at all so far.  Maybe he will be right, who knows?  But my portfolio cannot wait until 2020.

When he wrote about plagues, he was using Black Death/Plague as the example, that had wiped out 1/3 of population.  If the magnitude is not anywhere close to that, then how about me calling seasonal flu that come every year?

And of course, his AI computer watches global capital, etc.  So getting the plagues, earthquakes, weather trends correct are all part of forecasting, as he claimed.

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October 25, 2018, 01:57:26 AM
 #4598

The Directional Change was not actually on there on the previous arrays. His update shows it, but in hindsight, so it doesn't really mean anything either way. And the Directional Change apparently can mean A LOT of things, reading up on the guide I'd posted a while back. I'm really iffy on that one. But Composite is the one we're looking for to pick highs and lows. It did that fairly well for the 17th.

I think so far, the current forecasts are:
-November high in gold on either closing or intra-month
-11/05 is lower than this week's low on an intraday or closing basis IF Friday closes under 24965
-An agricultural (wheat in particular) high and rising food prices by 2024. Not necessarily THE high, but I remember his saying a reaction? high
I am not sure about the other ones, can't remember

I do agree that MOST of his calls are ambiguous and open to a great degree of interpretation- but I also think that A FEW of his calls are concrete and those do display a relatively high degree of accuracy. MA, what do you think of the call when he said the market was likely to re-test support after it failed to open above the previous high? And the short term calls in the volatility?
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October 25, 2018, 02:02:08 AM
 #4599

September 24 post that I was referring to:

On the daily level, we are trading within the Breakout Channel but have not pushed through the top. This allows plenty of room to retest the bottom-side of the channel.

We have a Daily Bearish at 26067 and a closing below that will signal a retest of support. The first Weekly Bearish lies at 25877 so this is where key support begins. AT the end of this week we also have the month-end closing. The Monthly bearish do not begin until below 24000.

One of the curiosities of the market behavior relative to our Reversals has been how critical reversals once elected reverse direction and become critical support. We have stood by and watched the 1362 level in gold stand on a monthly closing basis and 1341 on a quarterly closing come hell or high water. Now the 25800 in the Dow may be critical in general as support. If we tend to retest that area yet hold into year-end, then we could be creating a platform for a Vertical Market. That is not yet confirmed. Just keep this in mind and observing the remainder of the year.\

For month end close this Friday, we see support moving into October forming at the 25500-25000 level. Closing resistance will stand 26620. A closing ABOVE that may signal a rally into November.

Keep in mind that while we have craziness going on in Washington with the Deep State Coup slowly becoming exposed, the insanity in Europe is not to be ignored. We also have the Democrats in the USA secretly advocating war against Russia behind the curtain as retribution for Hillary's emails. Keep in mind this is very much like being blamed for coming home early to catch a thief in your home and then he blames you for returning early.

Today, we have support at the 26315 level and we are trading at 26584 at the time of this post. A close below 26519 today will warn of a further decline tomorrow is possible. The key target in time this week  is split Wed/Thurs and this is followed by Monday Oct 1st with a Panic Cycle the next day.

Once again, the failure to open above last week's high signals a retest of support is likely.
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October 25, 2018, 04:34:23 AM
 #4600

September 24 post that I was referring to:

On the daily level, we are trading within the Breakout Channel but have not pushed through the top. This allows plenty of room to retest the bottom-side of the channel.

We have a Daily Bearish at 26067 and a closing below that will signal a retest of support. The first Weekly Bearish lies at 25877 so this is where key support begins. AT the end of this week we also have the month-end closing. The Monthly bearish do not begin until below 24000.

One of the curiosities of the market behavior relative to our Reversals has been how critical reversals once elected reverse direction and become critical support. We have stood by and watched the 1362 level in gold stand on a monthly closing basis and 1341 on a quarterly closing come hell or high water. Now the 25800 in the Dow may be critical in general as support. If we tend to retest that area yet hold into year-end, then we could be creating a platform for a Vertical Market. That is not yet confirmed. Just keep this in mind and observing the remainder of the year.\

For month end close this Friday, we see support moving into October forming at the 25500-25000 level. Closing resistance will stand 26620. A closing ABOVE that may signal a rally into November.

Keep in mind that while we have craziness going on in Washington with the Deep State Coup slowly becoming exposed, the insanity in Europe is not to be ignored. We also have the Democrats in the USA secretly advocating war against Russia behind the curtain as retribution for Hillary's emails. Keep in mind this is very much like being blamed for coming home early to catch a thief in your home and then he blames you for returning early.

Today, we have support at the 26315 level and we are trading at 26584 at the time of this post. A close below 26519 today will warn of a further decline tomorrow is possible. The key target in time this week  is split Wed/Thurs and this is followed by Monday Oct 1st with a Panic Cycle the next day.

Once again, the failure to open above last week's high signals a retest of support is likely.

This is what I think about the "if-then-else" forecast.  Take ANY stock charts, and use Bollinger bands, or moving average, or etc.  As a visual example, look at Bollinger bands.  Now, you will say, what the heck, how come this indicator envelopes the stock price almost so perfectly??  Can I use it to sell calls & puts as some guaranteed profitable trades??

Now, you put that Bollinger bands to actual trading test, and then you will find out.  DUH!  It does NOT really have predictive power.  When a stock drops 20% in a day, the envelope changes POST-fact.  And it is simply a VISUAL artifact that when you are looking BACK in a historical chart, that it envelopes the stock prices quite well.

This is the SIMILAR process that Armstrong is playing with the readers' mind.  He continually tracks the market price, in a way, giving a guard band up & down, and it is simply a ILLUSION that you think he somehow has some predictive power, when in fact, you can obtain similar results using combinations of other technical analysis.

That's why I kept saying that the golden way of proving anybody's worth is simply put in ACTUAL trades with ACTUAL percentage/dollar amount.  You cannot trade $100, and then trade $200, and then trade $400, and then trade $800, and bet on exponentially increase amount, so that all you need to do is to win the last trade to show an overall profit, for example.

Armstrong will not do that.  Instead, he remains ambiguous, so that he can be always right.  The FACT that he is a lot more often ambiguous than concrete is essentially giving away that he cannot forecast accurately.  Always remember that what is NOT being said quite often has more and the true information beyond everything that is being said.


And again, you CANNOT say that DIRECTIONAL CHANGE does NOT mean ANYTHING.  If that does NOT mean anything, then WHY does Armstrong keep using the terms of Directional Change, Turning Point, Panic Cycle, etc, etc.  WHY do you want to overlook his mistakes??  You MUST hold ALL of his forecast to its worth.  If you DON'T, how can you tell which part means more, and which part means less??

So you put out "what you THINK" based on your forecast.  ANOTHER human being or subscriber will THINK differently.  And that is Armstrong's trick.  At ANY given time, some people will get it right, and some people will get it wrong.  And that is just perfect.  Since he does NOT know which way, as long as the "some people" who get it right to continue to convince the people who get it wrong for Armstrong, his "perfect" forecast record will continue.  He would say, see "someone" made a BIG profitable trade, when in fact, NOBODY could have interpreted his stuffs always in the same way.
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