Bitcoin Forum
December 06, 2019, 03:24:30 AM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 0.19.0.1 [Torrent]
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register More  
Pages: « 1 ... 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 [227] 228 229 230 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 240 241 242 243 244 245 246 247 248 249 250 251 252 253 254 255 256 257 258 259 260 261 262 263 264 265 266 267 268 269 270 271 272 273 274 275 276 277 ... 335 »
  Print  
Author Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion  (Read 618997 times)
bikefront
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 428
Merit: 21


View Profile
October 10, 2018, 03:44:38 PM
 #4521

Well the target wee of 10/01 produced a high and and an outside reversal to the downside. The next target is now the week of 10/15-22. A weekly closing below 25753 will confirm it should be a sharp decline. For now, we see that the uptrend channel and the breakout channel converge at 26392-26408 and we are currently trading at 26155. By next week, the technical support will lie at 24929 and resistance at 26298.

We have a Directional Change due the week of the 22nd and then we should see the opposite trend into the week of the elections 11/05. Our next weekly Panic Cycle will appear the week of 11/26.

We have a Daily Bearish at 26349 and an important one at 26037. A daily closing below that will bring the Weekly Bearish Reversal into play. Beyond that, we have Daily Bearish under the market at 25805 and 25294.

the next two Daily targets in time will be 10/15 and 10/18.

So buckle up. As we head into these chaotic elections, the model is clearly showing that we should expect far more civil unrest and clearly the new Democratic strategy is in fact to encourage violence. The left is turning toward a far more violent profile. Civility is gone. This is by no means going to end very nicely. The new motto of the left - WARNING - WE MAY NOT PLAY NICELY WITH OTHERS.


This is a new post that has just come out.
1575602670
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1575602670

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1575602670
Reply with quote  #2

1575602670
Report to moderator
1575602670
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1575602670

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1575602670
Reply with quote  #2

1575602670
Report to moderator
1575602670
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1575602670

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1575602670
Reply with quote  #2

1575602670
Report to moderator
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1575602670
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1575602670

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1575602670
Reply with quote  #2

1575602670
Report to moderator
1575602670
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1575602670

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1575602670
Reply with quote  #2

1575602670
Report to moderator
1575602670
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1575602670

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1575602670
Reply with quote  #2

1575602670
Report to moderator
THX 1138
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 204
Merit: 103



View Profile
October 10, 2018, 05:51:15 PM
Last edit: October 10, 2018, 09:14:47 PM by THX 1138
 #4522

For the longest time, I thought he answers his readers' questions, until I caught a typo in his readers' questions.  And it happened two times.  If a reader actually emails him, he should simply cut & paste over the question.  He shouldn't re-type it.  As you know very well, Armstrong has quite a lot of typos in his posts, and I'm extremely sensitive to any typos.  The typo that he made in readers' questions was fire instead of hire (or it may be the other way around).  There was absolutely NO WAY for anyone to make sense out of it EXCEPT for the person who is typing it (and made the typo).  It took me several minutes to realize that typo, to be able to proceed to understand the entire sentence.

After that, I realized that probably over 50% of the sent-in questions by readers are ALL FAKE.
Just want to clarify on his reader's typo of "hire" as "fire".  The chance of another reader having such flagrant typo (like Armstrong often does), together with the chance of having a super-psychic Armstrong not realizing the typo, and not correcting the typo, but simply sees "fire" as "hire" directly in his super-clairvoyant mind, is essentially zero.  A rare event of 0.01% chance can sometimes happen.  But to have two rare events of 0.01% chance happening at the same time will be 0.0001%, and that's basically impossible.

The alternative and much simpler explanation is simply that Armstrong was typing reader's questions in his mind, and obviously everything is crystal clear to him, since he is composing readers' questions.

It literally took me at least more than 2 minutes to realize that "hire" was mis-typed as "fire".

It's everything that added up, some lies here, some lies there, some mis-forecast here and there, etc.  And then I finally woke up.  And what I should have done all along was simply to test his forecast in a SYSTEMATIC way, and that would have told the story quickly, instead of having me persuading myself that I didn't understand his ECM correctly, or that I didn't subscribe to all of his private offering, etc.
Fascinating stuff. Must have been rather a shock for you to reveal these, shall we say, "inconsistencies" after following his work for all this time.

I've been reading his blog for over four years and these revelations really leave a sour taste. At times I had the vague impression of repeated similar sentence contruction in questions, but not sufficiently so to make me doubt their veracity.

So in the light of what you've discovered, do you see any value at all now in the ECM, or anything he writes?

EDIT:
Have the posts with the "hire" and "fire" typos been edited by Armstrong since you discovered them? And if so, I wonder if the originals might be on Wayback Machine - though I imagine you would already have tried this.
magnat7691
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 350
Merit: 10


View Profile
October 10, 2018, 06:01:50 PM
 #4523

It is always useful to re-read the classics of economic analysis. Without an understanding of the basics of economics, it is not possible to become a professional trader.

▀▀▀▀▀▀     │      BRIDGEX NETWORK      │      LEND · BORROW · CONVERT · SEND     ▀▀▀▀▀▀
▄▄▄▄▄▄       Whitepaper     Telegram     Twitter     Medium     Facebook     LinkedIn       ▄▄▄▄▄▄
bikefront
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 428
Merit: 21


View Profile
October 10, 2018, 08:17:03 PM
 #4524

What a day, what a day! Lucky to have grabbed a few puts to staunch blood flow from my holds mid-day. Armstrong has been wrong before, as we ALL know, but he totally called this one clearly, just like the February one, about a month in advance. I think he thinks the low should be next week, I think on the 15th OR the 18th (these should be opposite events- if the 15th is a low, then a short term trade can be made there for a long. But he will need to talk about the Daily reversal level there, possibly. But the low might just be the lowest daily close, not intraday low.), for the daily timeframe. But it says there's a directional change on the week of the 22nd, which is when the market should be going back up, on the weekly timeframe. The 25,000 handle area might be the area for a long if we hit that next week. I am still seeing the healthcare sector outperform the general market, so perhaps a long there while shorting the Russell or Nasdaq can be a trade idea. In any case, because the market did exceed the September high in October, it should make a high in November. If it does not, this would be an example of him being wrong while readers NOT losing money IF he is correct about the turning point, because the low would be bought, only that it might not go as high as stated. I would like him to re-clarify this point about the November high. But it is an example of how a forecast may change in some ways. We have the opportunity to test this forecasting ability in the midst of such high volatility.
Kiwibird
Jr. Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 45
Merit: 2


View Profile
October 10, 2018, 09:58:46 PM
 #4525

re long term forecasting I found these:

from 2014 on the DOW: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/dow-confusion/
'we still see the two primary targets for highs on this run in the 26000 area followed by 43000 area. The latter would have been a Sling Shot Move now for a high in 2015.75. We are still in a position to see that level but it would appear more-likely-than-not to be the 2017-2018 time period.
This is a question of TIME more so than price. ..The rally will come when the fresh crowd all start to buy once again. That becomes the question as to how high is high. It is starting look like the 43000 number more so than just the 26000 level. We need more price action to confirm that outcome'
- note these forecasts all depend upon the TIME factor i.e. using the Arrays and Reversals together. If they don't hit/come together then you wait for the next cycle/Time and Price to come together for the forecast to become fact.

from Jan 2015 re Bonds: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/the-bond-bubble-confirmed/
'This 2015.75 turn should be the start of BIG BANG and this should be a market with the low in interest rates that ferments the peak in the bond bubble'
- note he doesn't say in January that there will be a crash 8 months later on that exact date 2015.75..he says it's the start that 'ferments' the peak in bonds - that fermented (think bubbly) peak came to fruition nearly a year later in July 2016 and has been heading on a southwards trend ever since.

A bit more on Time and Price coming together in relation to Gold from 2013 - he forecast the low should be 2015 if Time and Price come together:
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/time-price/
'as far as the low is concerned, the price can be between 1050 and 850. It is more WHEN the price is reached rather than the express actual number. BOTH have to be achieved. If we saw $950 tomorrow, sorry, that would not be the low because the time is not right.'
trc4949
Jr. Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 49
Merit: 1


View Profile
October 10, 2018, 11:47:01 PM
 #4526

The thing is today's drop was the biggest single drop of the entire year second only to February of this year.

HUGE Potential profits to be made on today's drop.  And yet I did not hear any confident aggressive call that this drop was coming today.  Only that we are in 'consolidation'.

Simple technical analysis forewarned that this drop and of this size was coming.

I get his blog updates and there was zero warning about today.

MA_talk
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 189
Merit: 10


View Profile
October 10, 2018, 11:55:19 PM
 #4527

Here are the typos.  It has been a long time, and I recalled incorrectly.  It wasn't fire/hire.

It was hire/higher, but this is not from his reader.  Only showed it as an example of his typo ability.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/greenspan-sees-inflation-or-stagflation-there-is-a-difference/
a shortage in supply will result in hire prices

This is the typo that I intended to comment, a typo from his reader:
https://web.archive.org/web/20170725212844/https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/qa/what-books-are-there-for-monetary-history/

Keep up the hood work and see you in November.


Here is another example of very suspicious reader's comment:
https://web.archive.org/web/20180703163201/http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/basic-concepts/the-path-of-order-rather-than-chaos-lead-to-understanding/
why the Sovereign Debt Crisis will bring Gov. Debt to 0

There was a typo of t missing in boldface that I added.  And I don't know ANYONE else (besides Armstrong) who can blah/blah/blah through all those magic numbers fluently, just like this reader.  Honestly, I cannot make anything out of this:
https://web.archive.org/web/20180703163201/http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/basic-concepts/the-path-of-order-rather-than-chaos-lead-to-understanding/

noting the ratios of events in time 8.6(9) year frequency with the 1.075(1.3) year short leg and the 2.15(2.6) (1.3 +2.6=3.9) year Long leg to volatility wave/ change in trend PI 3.1415(3.2)


So what's the chance of another person/reader who writes in this?  When was the last time that you see someone typing hood work instead of good work without realizing the typo in front of you.


As I said that Armstrong is probably an above-average trader.  So he probably could get things more correct than often, but it's not as he has claimed, "AI computer" that is not biased.  You need to collect Armstrong's specific forecasts to get the actual value from his stuffs.  The problem of being ambiguous is this.  Let's say I open a stock market newsletter.  If I keep the wording ambiguous, and let's say 45% of people traded wrong and 55% of the people traded correctly, due to a combination of my forecast wording and people's innate trading intuition, there will ALWAYS be some percentage of profitable trades from whatever I say.  As long as I can keep the 45% of the losing subscribers to hang on longer, and the drop off rates is less than the incoming rate, then my newsletter business will keep booming.  And since every time the people who lose in trades may not be the same people, it's not really a big problem for the constantly changing 45% of people to hang on.  The only person among all who can always win is the person who is publishing the newsletter.

The honest newsletter writers will post ACTUAL trades and keep a record, because they are actually good, and they have a real winning record to post for everyone to see.  Armstrong has none, and he doesn't keep track.  Again, all he needs to dispel this is to post a trade record in real-time, and shows a good trading profits from it consistently, beating index funds.  As long as it's a winning record, it's good.


Instead, he boasted that he created AI, speech recognition, natural language processing way before year 2000, and one time, he posted that his AI computer is "self-conscious", etc, while at the same time, he cannot stick to a single cycle length number for his ECM.  8.6153846615 was in the headline section, but it won't give you Sep 30/Oct 1st, 2015 date, which is supposedly accurate "down to the day".
http://web.archive.org/web/20141015175106/http:/armstrongeconomics.com/

Save the number/picture before Armstrong files a copyright infringement against web archive.org.

I don't think there is any real value in his ECM.  It's just a tool for him to magically play with numbers.


MA_talk
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 189
Merit: 10


View Profile
October 11, 2018, 12:05:18 AM
 #4528

This is the real reason that he went to jail, I think, and I posted it before.  Boldfaces are mine.

https://web.archive.org/web/20180221203803/https://www.hedgeweek.com/2009/08/25/martin-armstrong-and-two-firms-pay-usd27m-anti-fraud-action
------- start -----
The consent orders arise from a CFTC complaint filed on 13 September 1999, against Armstrong and PGM and PEI, the corporations he directed as chairman. The complaint alleged that from approximately November 1997 to September 1999 Armstrong, PEI and PGM defrauded customers by operating and managing a commodity pool that concealed substantial trading losses incurred as the result of commodity futures trading. The complaint further charged Armstrong, PEI and PGM with issuing reports to customers that fraudulently represented the net asset value of their interests in the commodity pool. A related civil action was filed by the Securities and Exchange Commission.

In July 2004 the CFTC entered an order against Harold Ludwig, former co-director, with Martin Armstrong, of PGM, which required Ludwig to pay USD4.9m in restitution and a USD2m civil monetary penalty for his role in fraudulently allocating profitable trades to benefit himself rather than the Princeton customers. Also in July 2004, the CFTC entered an order against William Rogers and Maria Toczylowski, the former president and vice president, respectively, of the commodity futures division of Republic New York Securities. The order required them to pay USD6m and USD400,000 in restitution and USD2m and USD240,000 in civil monetary penalties, respectively, for their roles in executing net asset value letters that intentionally misrepresented the true values of the Princeton accounts and for assisting in fraudulently allocating trades to the detriment of Princeton customers.
---- end of partial text ----

PEI and PGM are Armstrong's companies.  How in the world can he NOT know about the fraudulent allocations of the trades, for such a smart person like he is??  And if his firm was generating such substantial trading losses overall, how well can he actually trade?  Didn't he has the AI computer to help him?
bikefront
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 428
Merit: 21


View Profile
October 11, 2018, 12:50:19 AM
 #4529

The following was posted on September 24 Private Blog, bolded mine. After re-reading, I realize that the November really he was referring to might only apply IF the market closes at month end above the resistance number he gave:

On the daily level, we are trading within the Breakout Channel but have not pushed through the top. This allows plenty of room to retest the bottom-side of the channel.

We have a Daily Bearish at 26067 and a closing below that will signal a retest of support. The first Weekly Bearish lies at 25877 so this is where key support begins. AT the end of this week we also have the month-end closing. The Monthly bearish do not begin until below 24000.

One of the curiosities of the market behavior relative to our Reversals has been how critical reversals once elected reverse direction and become critical support. We have stood by and watched the 1362 level in gold stand on a monthly closing basis and 1341 on a quarterly closing come hell or high water. Now the 25800 in the Dow may be critical in general as support. If we tend to retest that area yet hold into year-end, then we could be creating a platform for a Vertical Market. That is not yet confirmed. Just keep this in mind and observing the remainder of the year.\

For month end close this Friday, we see support moving into October forming at the 25500-25000 level. Closing resistance will stand 26620. A closing ABOVE that may signal a rally into November.

Keep in mind that while we have craziness going on in Washington with the Deep State Coup slowly becoming exposed, the insanity in Europe is not to be ignored. We also have the Democrats in the USA secretly advocating war against Russia behind the curtain as retribution for Hillary's emails. Keep in mind this is very much like being blamed for coming home early to catch a thief in your home and then he blames you for returning early.

Today, we have support at the 26315 level and we are trading at 26584 at the time of this post. A close below 26519 today will warn of a further decline tomorrow is possible. The key target in time this week  is split Wed/Thurs and this is followed by Monday Oct 1st with a Panic Cycle the next day.

Once again, the failure to open above last week's high signals a retest of support is likely.


MA, there was an article which was not on Armstrong's site, where it mentioned that 1 or two of the traders that worked for Armstrong were later convicted for a completely different securities fraud when working for a different bank. I do not recall if they were the same ones as you mentioned. I do not know how much authority they had in how much they could cover up. Maybe armstrong is a conman and fraudster. I don't know.

I will post the next private blog on here later tonight if it comes up, as he said it would. We can at least test his forecasts in the midst of this volatility in real-time.

Has anyone used the ask-socrates platform in order to determine the validity of its generated support and resistance levels? As MA has said, they do seem to be the usual support and resistance levels. However, I have noticed that it does okay in picking points when markets are at highs and low to medium volatility on shorter timeframes. It also does well in discerning differences in trend- it had picked the Dow to outperform due to the Bullish Reversals, as stated previously.
trc4949
Jr. Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 49
Merit: 1


View Profile
October 11, 2018, 01:17:17 AM
 #4530

The thing is basic tape reading skills will help one find reversals in the market or tops.  Divergences etc etc.

I like Marty's broad economic discussion macro discussion of bigger trends in markets which he seems to be correct on generally.

But what I don't care for is his constant bashing of other market timers, and his seeming reluctance to ever admit he is wrong on anything.

Generally speaking it sort of brings up this philosophical question when any person has character flaws (lies, fraudulent etc)  do we still follow them as a friend, advisor, or continue to trust their work for our own benefit ?

There is no perfect person in this world, everyone has some good and some bad.  So when someone is 70% bad and only 30% good do you still invite them to dinner at your house ?

Another example is this guy Mike Murdock.  A pastor who preaches a lot about wisdom and self help and how to become wealthy through wisdom and good principles of life.... but then he spends the other half the time basically begging for money and promising people they will get rich if they donate money to him.

Really odd, I mean I love his advice and principles but then it is mixed with this odd seeming character flaw that he seems to pray on vulnerable people.
bikefront
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 428
Merit: 21


View Profile
October 11, 2018, 01:57:20 AM
Merited by infofront (1)
 #4531

Most recent post:

The cyclical picture is still one that remains a broad path of consolidation. This is why we warned that it is just not going to be over until we get past November for then we have the elections. The decline has been blamed on rising interest rates as if they just discovered that and China now search people at the border for bringing back Luxury goods from the USA. Keep in mind that a Democratic victory in the November elections will be really bad overall because the confidence in the market will be undermined. Still, that does not mean the market would be dead. As long as it is worse elsewhere, then the capital will still seek shelter but not in bonds. Nevertheless, when we glance at all three US share market indexes, the striking thing the jumps out is the lack of an nice isolated high. This formation ensures that the bull run is by no means over yet. Indeed, we have three indexes and each peaked at a different month August - September - October.

From a cyclical perspective, exceeding the August high during October on the 3rd yet failing to get through out overhead resistance has remained as a highly volatile calling card for October/November. This is especially true since the NASDAQ has not exceeded the August high warning that the market was indeed encountering overhead resistance This was the case for the Dow Jones, but clearly not the NASDAQ which was holding back. We need a Monthly Closing below 23995 to signal a serious correction becomes possible.

A weekly closing now back above 25806 at the end of the week will signal a rally into the next target.Major closing support lies at 25045 for the close of this week.We have a Directional Change tomorrow and the next daily target in time will be Monday 15th. Holding today's low tomorrow implies a bounce. So pay attention to the opening.

The NASDAQ, on the other hand, did NOT exceed the August high so that left the pattern intact that an August high would be followed by an October/November low. The NASDAQ even elected a Weekly Bearish on Friday warning that a sharp decline was likely. Now a closing below 708400 on Friday in the NASDAQ warns that we are looking at a sharp decline to test the Monthly Bearish Reversals in the 690000 zone.

We have to be concerned that since this week is a Directional Change, volatility will remain high next week and then the next turning point will be the week of 10/22 followed by the election week of 11/05, this can get really dicey and a whipsaw cannot be ruled out. If we now close this week at least back above 718370, we could see this week's low hold and then a swing up into 10/22 and a retest of the lows into the election.

When we turn to the S&P500, here we have a high between the Dow & NASDAQ which formed in September. The market has exceeded the January high but remains within the well defined Uptrend Channel. We have technical support at 2768 and 2635. A closing at the end of this week ABOVE 2681 will also warn we could have a bounce. However, we do have resistance at 2795 so we really need a close back above that area. A closing above 2851 will signal a STRONG BOUNCE IS LIKELY. Daily Bullish is now at 2921.
MA_talk
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 189
Merit: 10


View Profile
October 11, 2018, 02:32:26 AM
 #4532

So I'd like to ask, after reading his private blog (daily), do you buy or sell, and how much percentage?  And when do you close the trade?

If you are the 55%(?) of the people consistently that does the correct trades by reading his blog, then that's really totally fine.  You should continue the subscription.  But most people probably aren't.

The problem is that his advice MUST be clear to take out the subscribers' different nature and different emotional reactions in order to let them be consistently profitable.

Is Armstrong doing that?  Or is he trying to give you if-then-else, then-do-this-do-that, essentially tracking the market curves up and down, and that he will never be wrong, since he continuously tracks and describes the market?

He can always point to somebody who subscribes to him, and had a winning trade, no doubt about it.  But how many others that are not posting here or elsewhere are losing?

Therefore, I kept proposing to simply measure something measurable from his writings consistently and that will shine light on his accuracy of forecast.  And if that accuracy is 70% accurate, or 60% accurate, that's fine.  At least that's something that you know that you could use.  But we all know that it's just not even close to 100%.  And that's what I said about bar height/price levels, which is something really simple to do and measure.

And I don't care about whether he was a fraud or not, as long as his forecast is reasonably accurate.  However, being a past fraud if he really is based on that SEC/CFTC judgment and my posted link, then obviously, MORE attentions must be paid due to his past fraudulent actions.

What I've found most often is that his (post-event) writing is obviously accurate because it's post-event, and that gives you an impression that he is accurate.  Plus the fact that he always gives you if-then-else, etc. that essentially tracks the market behavior without telling you to buy or sell, he is "uselessly accurate" again, almost like any other technical analysis methods that relies on the closing price to plot the next point.

At the end of the days, everyone is stuck with his own profit/loss.  As long as reading such "market tracking" blog works for you consistently, that is indeed great.

I'm guessing that Armstrong can maybe trade profitably consistently.  But if people see that he can just beat the market index by 1% with for example only 60% correct trades and 40% incorrect trades, probably no one would be fascinated by him at all.  But if people buy into his magic ECM and AI computer, a lot more people will be impressed.
Kiwibird
Jr. Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 45
Merit: 2


View Profile
October 11, 2018, 02:37:19 AM
 #4533

When his movie comes out it'll tell the story.. that is if it's not banned in your location.

The movie will be FACTUAL because :
'First, you have to understand for them to do such a movie, they have to get insurance to cover any lawsuit claims. Everything in that movie had to be presented to Lyods of London to prove that all statements could be proven in a court in order to even get such insurance. They had to investigate the claims in detail on both sides or such a film would never be made. It was funded by the German TV station.'

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrong-in-the-media/the-forecaster/gag-orders-cover-ups/

'When it became clear that the receiver was trying to paint me as a rogue trader who conspired with the bank’s own people against my own clients, that would have allowed the bank to keep all the money. So I did an interview with the Japanese press and told all my clients to come to New York and file suits against the bank. They did. I met with their lead lawyer and I agreed to help them and testify against the bank. The bankers ran to the government and they escorted them into my case and placed a lifetime gag order on me to prevent me from helping my clients against the bankers. No lawyer I know of has EVER heard of such a gag order. This single action demonstrates that there is no rule of law in New York and you will NEVER win a lawsuit against a New York bank – PERIOD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Republic/HSBC pleaded guilty and had to pay $640 million because they simply took the money.
As for my plea, they would not drop the charges and Richard Owens said to my face he knew I did not take any money. Obvious! You either write a check or you wire it out. You cannot yet beam it out like Star Trek.'
bikefront
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 428
Merit: 21


View Profile
October 11, 2018, 03:23:30 AM
 #4534

I agree with you again, MA. I remember his week of August 20 turning point call for the Dow where I lost quite a bit. That was the one where he talked about alignments, inversion, etc and so forth. The reason I put a large amount in that trade was because, until that point, his calls were doing very well. Indeed, I was following another trader who used the calls and was eerily accurate in picking the exact duration of highs and lows to the day well in advance- but it didn't work out that time.

So for now, after reading the blog, I would be conservative. Using percentage amounts and so forth would be in the realm of usual practice- less size in volatility and so on. Cutting out the unnecessary, we are left with the following forecasts:

-Closing the week above 25806 will mean we should rally into the next turning point. Because he says that support is 25045, and futures are trading near that as of now, I plan on closing my shorts tomorrow. But then he says holding the low implies a bounce. It does not look like that we will hold today's low because we closed on lows and are going down based on futures. So IF I would long, it would have to be on Friday if it appears we close above the 25806 in the Dow cash. On the other hand, Monday the 15th is a turning point, so I THINK that if it is the low, then we should get a bounce starting from the 15th to the 18th. That leaves some ambiguity in terms of Reversals, so I would leave that one.

-For the Nasdaq, closing under 7084 on Friday means that we will at some point test 6900. A close above 7183.70 on Friday means the week of 10/22 should be a high, and then go back down to test lows again during the week of 11/05.

-The S&P is too ambiguous to make a forecast for me.

These are the if-then forecasts I was referring to, yes. Overall, the forecast of the market going up is still in play, so for a long term investor, there have not been any long term sell signals for US equities. I do find him useful, but his writing is needlessly convoluted. I wish he had someone who could explain things to the layman, because it would be much easier. His if-then short term calls do well- often the kind where 'if the market closes above/below X by Y time then we will do this". They don't come too often though.
MA_talk
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 189
Merit: 10


View Profile
October 11, 2018, 07:03:14 AM
 #4535

Kiwibird,

  I'm not defending the bank nor USA legal system, etc.  I kept saying that probably over 95% of info on his blog is completely true.  But how are you going to tell when Armstrong slips in 5% untruth (if he did)?  And for every untruth, you need to ask yourself WHY he is saying/doing that.

  And you just need to LOOK at the facts.  FACT: His co-director was found guilty fraudulently allocating profitable trades.  CONJECTURE: Armstrong is a smart guy, and he should be aware of that.

  FACT: In 1987, fastest CPU on computer CPU was running at some 33MHz, but at year 2000, CPU was running at 3.3GHz.  In just 13 years, technology advanced by a factor of 100.  It has basically been exponential, which you can roll back further the speed to earlier than 1987 via exponential curve fitting.  Yet, Armstrong claimed that he did better than the speech recognition from Dragon dictation system before that time.  In 1987, the hard drive size was about 2MB.  Now 3TB is super-cheap.  That's a factor of 1.5 Million advancement (not to mention the cost that went down probably another 20X).
  He did show a picture with his PC, which was very similar to the one that I had.  HOW ON EARTH can he get access to such large storage that may be required and huge processing CPU power in 1970/80s, when even today, your speech is sent over via internet to Google/Apple to be processed by their cloud of servers for speech recognition, because your local CPU doesn't even have enough processing power?

  WHY did he make such claim?


  I can go on & on.  Yes, maybe he was over-punished in jail.  Yes, maybe he was mis-treated by legal systems.  But how do you explain that his co-director fraudulently allocating profitable trades?  BOTH can be true at the same time.

  Again, I'm just trying to judge his trading forecast for its own merit, and not him as a person.  Don't twist his words.  Don't twist your thinking.  Just stick to the same measuring method on his forecast array, and you can scientifically determine whether his forecast array has any (tradable) values or not.

  If I have an AI computer like his, I would just show the AI trading record on every financial market to show how successful it can be, and for trading in my personal account too.  No if-then-else.  It's either you can make money, or you don't.  But such black-and-white record if it's not successful will expose the "AI computer".
bikefront
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 428
Merit: 21


View Profile
October 11, 2018, 01:17:50 PM
 #4536

This morning:

Keep in mind that the next Daily Target in Monday 15th and today is a Directional Change. We see tech support in the Dow today beneath yesterday's low at 25494 followed by 25294 and 25222. We have a Weekly Bearish Reversal at 25754 so a closing below that on Friday implies a low on Monday.
We will update after the open.

bikefront
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 428
Merit: 21


View Profile
October 11, 2018, 02:40:31 PM
 #4537

Just now:

We can see that when yesterday opening inside the channel, the break began. We held the previous Breakline and that rests today at 25557.05. With today as a Directional Change, we have a reasonable shot that we can see a temp low today with a bounce into Monday. The Dow has not broken anything important with respect to broad support. That lies at the 24965 level. A closing today above 2557.05 will raise the possibility of a temp low. A closing above 25889 will increase the chances for a bounce into Monday.

In the SPX, our projected technical support lies at 2765 and so far the market fell to 2767. A closing below 2565 will technically imply a further decline rather than a bounce. You want to watch 2765 intraday as important tech support.Breaking 2760 intraday may lead to a drop to the 2720 area. After that, the tech support forms at 2720-2717 and 2678. A closing above 2717 tomorrow will imply the market is starting to firm.

We also have a Directional Change in the SPX on a weekly level. The next three weeks look to be an increase in volatility ahead.

bikefront
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 428
Merit: 21


View Profile
October 11, 2018, 03:05:42 PM
 #4538

2760 broke intraday, so let's see if we get 2720!
bikefront
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 428
Merit: 21


View Profile
October 11, 2018, 03:33:17 PM
 #4539

Another one:

The market has broken the intraday support and a close below 25294 in the Dow today will imply a further drop into March 15th. The Dow fell to 25226. We have key support at 25222 and 25092 followed by the critical support at 24965.

The SPX has fallen to 2745. The SPX broke the 2760 intraday but the key support is now 2720-2717 and 2678. A closing above 2717 tomorrow will imply the market is starting to firm.

Keep in mind market are like a horse race. The horses that start at at full speed often get tired by the end of the race. Pushing the declines right after the bell is often followed by firming later. So just watch the numbers and keep the emotions in check.
bikefront
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 428
Merit: 21


View Profile
October 11, 2018, 05:13:05 PM
 #4540

Midday post:

Next target is Monday 15th (not March) - auto correct stuff is not always so great. We need the Dow to close above 25454 to stabilize others it will still technically close weak. Yet a closing below 25222 will warn of that decline into next week is still on the table. A close on the Dow below 25753 tomorrow will also warn of a decline into next week.
Pages: « 1 ... 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 [227] 228 229 230 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 240 241 242 243 244 245 246 247 248 249 250 251 252 253 254 255 256 257 258 259 260 261 262 263 264 265 266 267 268 269 270 271 272 273 274 275 276 277 ... 335 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!