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Author Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion  (Read 615924 times)
bikefront
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October 30, 2018, 05:18:12 AM
Merited by infofront (1)
 #4621

New post tonight:

We can see what happened after we elected the Weekly Bearish Reversals. Nevertheless, we have a Directional Change due tomorrow so do not expect a tremendous collapse. I find it interesting how the yearly level on the Global Market Watch which had been pointing to 2018 as a possible high, it has now flipped with this price action to new highs are still likely. Keep in mind that is a PURE pattern recognition model, separate and distinct from everything else.
We still see next week as the main target. The polls are showing that the Republicans will lose the House. That definitely has capital scared. The Democrats are just hostile right now and it does not matter if something is good or bad - they are simply out for revenge. That is what has capital really upset.
As we approach month-end closing, a simple close below the September low of 2575432 will be a technical bearish indication for on the Dow at least, that would be an outside reversal to the downside. The next monthly turning point will be December and of course we have the big convergence of four models coming in together for November.
The number to watch will be 23995 followed by 23340. These are the two important numbers to watch for month end closing. Keep in mind that electing both will point to a Panic to the downside will point to a test of the 21-22000 area. Keep in mind that at year-end, we need a closing above 24720.
So, nothing yet indicates anything serious just yet. A slingshot move would certainly come into play if we get a monthly close below 23995. However, a closing BELOW 22415 at the end of the month will also warn of a decline into November.
---
Also part of the post but taken from Socrates' automatically generated summary:

OUR ANALYTICAL VIEWPOINT AS OF THE CLOSE OF Mon. Oct. 29, 2018: Dow Jones Industrials closing today of 2444292 immediately is trading down about 1.11% for the year from last year's closing of 2471922. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 9 days, while we have made a low at 2412223 following the high established Tue. Oct. 16, 2018. We did exceed the previous session's high intraday and closed below that same session low creating an outside reversal to the downside which was a very dramatic swing of 3.66%. Volatility notwithstanding, the market finished on the weak side closing beneath the previous session low and it remains below all center cyclical support models as well. Nonetheless, the market remains quite bearish below all our system indicators.

We did close above the previous session's Intraday Crash Mode technical support indicator which was 2447812 settling at 2468831. The current crash mode support for this session was 2427363 which we penetrated intraday but we closed back above that level finishing at 2444292 implying the market is still rather vulnerable yet sustaining for now. The Intraday Crash indicator for the next session will be 2393385. Now we have been holding above this indicator in the current trading session, and it resides lower for the next session. If the market opens above this number and holds it intraday, then we are consolidating. Prevailing above this session's low will be important to indicate the market is in fact holding.

Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 2518936 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Last day we did see an outside reversal to the downside, which is a warning that we have at least a pause in trend at this moment. If we penetrate that low of 2412223 and close below it this session, then we can see further downside ahead in price movement. Otherwise, holding that low intraday allows for a pause and consolidation briefly.
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October 31, 2018, 01:10:38 AM
 #4622

From today:
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/merkel-has-been-the-face-of-europe-so-get-ready/
"..The consolidation is about to end. So buckle up – we will be on our way to something really extraordinary that no domestic analysis will ever see coming.
In that respect, it will be like the 1987 Crash that was caused by external factors that never appeared in domestic numbers or analysis. It was so significant, that is when the Presidential Commission was compelled to request all our international research to understand how external factors overpower domestic.
So welcome of 2018. This is going to be a lot of fun to watch. Better than any movie or TV show – that’s for sure!.."

a bit of background;
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/research/panics/20th-century/the-1987-crash/
"..When we look at the capital flows for this period, we can see the wild and crazy swings that became the hallmark of the 1987 Crash. The swings in capital returning to Japan clearly contributed to creating the 1987 Crash, which was then followed by the capital concentration in Japan manifesting in the Bubble there for December 1989 also in line with our Economic Confidence Model target 1989.95...
.The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) dropped by 508 points to 1738.74 (22.61%). Domestically, investors called their brokers asking what was going on. Failing to understand currency, they did not realize why foreign investors were selling based on their belief that the dollar would have to fall much further. This had nothing to do with domestic economic statistics.."

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrong-in-the-media/our-world-tour-sponsored-by-institutions-began-in-1988/
"..After the 1987 crash, we were the only firm who had forecast the event within 30 ticks of the low and the TIME. But we then forecast that the market would rally to new highs. That was a shocking forecast, and we also made the day of the low. It was after that event when institutions around the world began begging us to give presentations to their clients. It was naturally in their self-interest to tell their clients we were the best.'"

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/october-19th-30-year-anniversary-1987-crash/
"..Now we talk about 1987 which was 30 years ago. I was giving a WEC that weekend. We just elected a set of Double Weekly Bearish Reversals. The Arrays called for a low in 2 days. There were no other reversals between 286 and 180.
I remember standing up there trying to find some technical support between 286 and 180. I could not. There was nothing between the two even technically. The audience asked me what would happen? I said look, it sounds nuts, but we should move down 10,000 basis point in two days.
I myself could not believe it. But people paid me for what the computer had to say, not my opinion.
When that happened, it was right on the ECM date. It was absolutely perfect to the T.
Everyone was calling for the 1929 collapse. The model said new highs by 1989.
That’s when brokerage houses were begging me to please come and speak to their retail audiences. I agreed and went to Toronto for Midland Daugherty. They filled the place with thousands of people..."

His WEC 2018 is November 16+17......  his ECM date is 21 November...
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October 31, 2018, 04:43:40 AM
 #4623

Kiwibird, I used to believe firmly in what Armstrong claimed about his forecast for 1987 (and whatever he claimed).  After last 16+ years of observing him extremely closely, I no longer believe that with all of the small & big lies from Armstrong that I've digged up.

In a court or a debate, you would never take just one person's words.  Same for this.  I wasn't there in his 1987 WEC (in fact, it wasn't called WEC at all).  You need evidences & witness.  And forget about the November ECM dates.  As I have said previously, the last ECM dates were OFF by some 6 days, even given with his OWN writings, with all kinds of numbers using 8.6, 8.615, 8.615xyz for the cycle length.

He has a record of telling outrageous claims (AI & speech recognition back in 1980 or earlier, AI computer self-awareness, ECM dates accurate down to the day, readers' sending comments when in fact most likely he made all that up with all kinds of typical typos from himself, etc.)  I am unable to trust someone who has such record, and use ambiguous words.

Remember that in the last promotional email that he sent to so many past customers that he just claimed again that he called the high in Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq.  I mean, REALLY?Huh

If he is forced to make 50 more seats for his WEC because too many are going (same or 1 day after he sent out that promotional email), he wouldn't need to send such promotional emails out.  Instead, he should have just wrapped up the attendance list, and be done with it.

So take your guess.  Again, a person on straightdope.com who went to WEC has said that Armstrong kind of just total BS thru the conference, providing very vague forecast if any.

Don't know how to trust any words from Armstrong.  What he does best is curve-fitting the market as the market goes up & down.  If-this-then-that.  Such statements don't have a lot of tradable values.  How about call out an actual BUY or SELL???  Wouldn't that clear out any potential confusion??  But that would immediately EXPOSE a wrong trade or call, if the market goes against him, and I don't think he wants that to happen ever.

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October 31, 2018, 07:46:30 AM
 #4624

New post tonight:

We can see what happened after we elected the Weekly Bearish Reversals. Nevertheless, we have a Directional Change due tomorrow so do not expect a tremendous collapse. I find it interesting how the yearly level on the Global Market Watch which had been pointing to 2018 as a possible high, it has now flipped with this price action to new highs are still likely. Keep in mind that is a PURE pattern recognition model, separate and distinct from everything else.
We still see next week as the main target. The polls are showing that the Republicans will lose the House. That definitely has capital scared. The Democrats are just hostile right now and it does not matter if something is good or bad - they are simply out for revenge. That is what has capital really upset.
As we approach month-end closing, a simple close below the September low of 2575432 will be a technical bearish indication for on the Dow at least, that would be an outside reversal to the downside. The next monthly turning point will be December and of course we have the big convergence of four models coming in together for November.
The number to watch will be 23995 followed by 23340. These are the two important numbers to watch for month end closing. Keep in mind that electing both will point to a Panic to the downside will point to a test of the 21-22000 area. Keep in mind that at year-end, we need a closing above 24720.
So, nothing yet indicates anything serious just yet. A slingshot move would certainly come into play if we get a monthly close below 23995. However, a closing BELOW 22415 at the end of the month will also warn of a decline into November.
---
Also part of the post but taken from Socrates' automatically generated summary:

OUR ANALYTICAL VIEWPOINT AS OF THE CLOSE OF Mon. Oct. 29, 2018: Dow Jones Industrials closing today of 2444292 immediately is trading down about 1.11% for the year from last year's closing of 2471922. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 9 days, while we have made a low at 2412223 following the high established Tue. Oct. 16, 2018. We did exceed the previous session's high intraday and closed below that same session low creating an outside reversal to the downside which was a very dramatic swing of 3.66%. Volatility notwithstanding, the market finished on the weak side closing beneath the previous session low and it remains below all center cyclical support models as well. Nonetheless, the market remains quite bearish below all our system indicators.

We did close above the previous session's Intraday Crash Mode technical support indicator which was 2447812 settling at 2468831. The current crash mode support for this session was 2427363 which we penetrated intraday but we closed back above that level finishing at 2444292 implying the market is still rather vulnerable yet sustaining for now. The Intraday Crash indicator for the next session will be 2393385. Now we have been holding above this indicator in the current trading session, and it resides lower for the next session. If the market opens above this number and holds it intraday, then we are consolidating. Prevailing above this session's low will be important to indicate the market is in fact holding.

Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 2518936 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Last day we did see an outside reversal to the downside, which is a warning that we have at least a pause in trend at this moment. If we penetrate that low of 2412223 and close below it this session, then we can see further downside ahead in price movement. Otherwise, holding that low intraday allows for a pause and consolidation briefly.

So looking at the array today should make at least a lower close than yesterdays close but given the Directional change it could be a spike lower and price should make lows ideally until 11/05 but maybe just till 11/02 because of the Comp II bar?

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October 31, 2018, 07:47:13 AM
 #4625

MA - As I said before, I personally met Larry Edelson (now deceased) back in 2015 - he and Armstrong have been friends since the 80s.. if you bother to watch The Forecaster he is in the documentary confirming Marty forecast that 87 event..We spoke at length in the bar after his Q&A session for The Forecaster documentary screening about his life bullion trading, Socrates and Armstrong.  So straight from a horses mouth so-to-speak.

Michael Campbell of Money Talks.net (https://forecaster-movie.com/en/the-story/ - click on Michael Campbell) goes on record confirming his accurate prediction in the documentary.

And you can watch WEC 2016 online for free... forecasts made then were not vague and came true.  He (Erwin) said the DOW would Phase Transition from then (2016) until 2018 which it did.

Is this what you mean about his AI?
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/ai-computers/is-conversational-ai-here/
"..When I was working on developing Socrates’ Natural Language, I was not interested in creating a machine to debate me. I was interested in creating a machine that I could at least have a conversation with. I teamed up with Dragon Systems back then when it was still hardware. I built a system and gave it to my children so that the computer could learn how to keep a conversation going. It would remember what they spoke about, so the next time they came back its knowledge base grew. I came home one day and found my daughter by the computer with all her girlfriends, for apparently they did not believe she could communicate with the computer. No doubt all her friends ran home and demanded a talking computer from their fathers. Needless to say, it taught me a lot about how to create a machine to have a conversation with and this was back in the 1980s..."

https://www.howestreet.com/2017/11/29/ai-v-self-aware/
The AI that people think they are watching is a fully cognitive robot that is self-aware. I wrote a program for my children back in the early 1980s. I installed a Dragon voice board and wrote a program to be a politician. It would interact with my children and record likes and dislikes. When my daughter would go back the next day, it would ask about something it knew like how is your dog.
The politician part came into play whenever it did not understand a line of conversation. It would simply change the subject. My kids would bring friends over and did not understand that the computer I created was not exactly off the shelf. They would tell their friend that their computer talked.
Likewise, Socrates is not cognitive. It understands how to analyze and go well beyond what humans are capable of. However, it is still not self-aware. I personally do not believe a computer can simply become self-aware by evolution. That theory is really based on the idea that there is no God and we have emerged simply because of our brain structure. Thus, if we create a neural net big enough, the theory is consciousness will somehow emerge as did we. I do not buy that."

Note he says Socrates is not self-aware...
bikefront
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October 31, 2018, 06:25:53 PM
 #4626

That's what I thought but trending composite doesn't necessarily mean an uninterupted trend. Only that turning points are supposed to be opposites. I wouldn't use Comp2 and stuff, it just means anything can be interpreted any way and that doesn't mean anything. I did expect a lower close based on the next direction change and/or  previous turning point bu who knows. A new post states that the what if bullish reversal is 25588 for this month end closing. So far it looks like nothing is going to be elected
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October 31, 2018, 09:08:18 PM
 #4627

That's what I thought but trending composite doesn't necessarily mean an uninterupted trend. Only that turning points are supposed to be opposites. I wouldn't use Comp2 and stuff, it just means anything can be interpreted any way and that doesn't mean anything. I did expect a lower close based on the next direction change and/or  previous turning point bu who knows. A new post states that the what if bullish reversal is 25588 for this month end closing. So far it looks like nothing is going to be elected

Yeah, I have seen that a few times now, I guess its not so simple as is explained in the guide. Regarding the Comp2 and empirical and all that, the German guy in the Vimeo WEC conference says he does use them and draws the price in. Also, what the hell are the other arrays for if they are not used? what good are the alpha, beta, empirical cycles?

The arrays would be more simple and clear were it not also for the directional changes that to me really make no sense. In the private blog post today for example martin said, the support price encountered and the directional change caused the bounce, but what about the second directional change? Did it shift the turning point or cancel the turning point because we have now closed higher than the previous bar which was a turning point, exactly the thing the array is used to predict. Its still all very confusing.



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October 31, 2018, 09:37:51 PM
 #4628

Agree. Honestly, I don't even try to interpret the arrays myself anymore. I only go by what Armstrong says, but when he says something I don't fully get, I just leave it alone and do my own thing. When his analysis and my own match, I go for the trade. His trend analysis is really good, and the Reversals are simple to understand and much easier to follow, so I tend to gravitate towards those.

1258 in gold looks like a good place to short when it gets there, and then cover at around 1238. Might get that in November. Actually, 1214 today in gold was a good entry long point I'd say, and we should get 1238 soon for the exit.
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November 01, 2018, 08:21:08 AM
 #4629

Agree. Honestly, I don't even try to interpret the arrays myself anymore. I only go by what Armstrong says, but when he says something I don't fully get, I just leave it alone and do my own thing. When his analysis and my own match, I go for the trade. His trend analysis is really good, and the Reversals are simple to understand and much easier to follow, so I tend to gravitate towards those.

1258 in gold looks like a good place to short when it gets there, and then cover at around 1238. Might get that in November. Actually, 1214 today in gold was a good entry long point I'd say, and we should get 1238 soon for the exit.

Yeah Marty said gold should see a high in November so I agree it is a nice entry point. Their is a weekly bullish at 1267 and a monthly at 1276, if it can reach here would be excellent place to short gold.

Marty also said the Dax had a bearish monthly at 11868 which we elected now, he says there is a massive gap now till 10400. I just wonder what he means by gap, will it drop to the next level in only 1 time frame, so it should get there by December?
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November 01, 2018, 12:16:03 PM
 #4630

Gold up a over percent, and the low only 6 ticks from the 1214. Great.

I don't know about timeframe for the dax trade, haven't followed it much but when he says gap, it refers to the lines in the Socrates charting system. So if the reversal is elected, the space between the next reversal is the gap. When reversals are clustered next to each other or are the same (eg double reversal) and are elected, then the next ones tend to have a large space between them. Remember, electing a reversal means the next one is tested. So in this case, and again I haven't followed but I'll go back and re-read and take a look at the arrays as well, the dax should have a 1400 point drop by the next turning point.
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November 01, 2018, 09:02:22 PM
Last edit: November 01, 2018, 09:24:34 PM by Kiwibird
 #4631


Marty also said the Dax had a bearish monthly at 11868 which we elected now, he says there is a massive gap now till 10400. I just wonder what he means by gap, will it drop to the next level in only 1 time frame, so it should get there by December?


I had asked a similar question a while ago re the DOW to Socrates Support and had a reply (from Erwin I think) regarding the election of Reversals and the time frame.  
His reply: "...If reversals are taken out you don't wait. The rule is, if we close above/below more then 1%, then the market will retrace to the reversal with no time given.
The rule of 3 applies to any reaction in a bear market usually the 3 time units. So if a rally is expected look for 3 time units.  Strong bear market 3 days or weeks. If a market needs to align itself like gold with other cycles it can be 3 quarters or 3 years as in Gold now.."

So the DAX closed 31 Oct at 1144751 and the Monthly Bear was "..1186880. Taking out this area and we have a large GAP down to the 1040000 zone.."
The September close was 1226589 and it closed October at 1144751, more than 1% past the 1186880 Monthly Reversal.  As there is a gap down i would class this as a strong bear market, so the 3 time-unit rally back up to test the reversal would be 3 days or weeks only - then gap down to 10400 by...? That 10400 price in my mind would intercede with TIME, so yes I think the next Time factors Marty mentions are "..We will also see December and February begin to shape up as important turning points which should produce the opposite of each other."

(Where he says "if the reversals are taken out you don't wait" was in relation to my query regarding the the DOW which was in its Bullish Phase Transition.  In that respect, taking out Bullish reversals by more than 1% in that sort of market, you just jump in and don't wait for any retest, because there is unlikely to be one in such a bullish market, and every Time turning point becomes a cycle inversion with new highs each time.)
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November 01, 2018, 10:26:45 PM
 #4632

Ah, thanks for the answer Kiwi. Because its a monthly timeframe, it might be 3 months? I don't know. I was thinking of trading it through the EWG options, but they're not so liquid. Perhaps some other kind of European ETF for us USA lot might be usable.
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November 02, 2018, 03:16:37 AM
 #4633

Ah, thanks for the answer Kiwi. Because its a monthly timeframe, it might be 3 months?

My original query asked that specifically - would the election of a Monthly Bearish Reversal mean you wait 3-Month-time-units for the reaction rally back to test, but his answer outlined above didn't confirm that - he wrote 'a reaction in a strong bear market would be max 3 days or weeks.' That's how I translate it anyway : )

So i guess we wait to see if the DAX retests within the next 3 days or weeks..?
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November 02, 2018, 05:46:55 AM
 #4634

I cannot find his attempted call on stock peaks.  I recalled he tried to sneak in about 3 times.  But using search, I came up with his call on peak in bond markets:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/the-peak-in-government-a-low-in-interest-rates/

And that was NOT correct.  The peak of interest rate indicated by TLT US bonds, or European bonds was NOT on ANY ECM dates.  Peak for TLT was July 8th, 2016.  He never defined exactly what is "peak of confidence in government" for the ECM in 2015.75, but it's obvious to ANYONE that confidence in government should have been measured by the government bond prices, just like the above link, as he was trying to allude to it as well.  BUT he didn't get the peak of bond prices correct AT ALL, and everybody knows that this would have been the bubble to pop, as the bond bull market has gone on for some 30 years.

Notice his wording in his post that allows him to claim credit, in case he is correct.

bikefront, I kept repeating this.  You MUST "measure" his prediction success SYSTEMATICALLY.
Of course, he "ALLOWS" possibilities, so that he can get everything correct.  What about all the long term forecasts that he claims he can make, and that he claimed he made.
Anyone predicts like he does can get everything correct.  If it's not correct, just say that the alternative scenario has been elected.  But who will be stuck with the trading losses?

Kiwibird, I posted how ECM length canNOT be 8.6 years, because that is simply NOT the right number, according to Armstrong HIMSELF (he posted different dates for 2015.75).  You can scroll back and look at what I posted.  8.6 is a MYTH.  If it's a science, then it is repeatable.  It cannot be 8.615 now, and 8.600 later, and 8.61513, and then 8.59.  According to Armstrong, ECM is accurate to the day.  So 8.6 MUST be accurate within 0.3%.  But it's not.  In fact, it's just whatever closest number that will make the math & dates correct.

Armstrong was right on the interest rate. See America's interest rate chart here: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate
Go to 10 year chart, and you'll see 2015 was the low. It's been going up since 2016.

I didn't look into the bonds, because I don't know where to look to prove/disprove.

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November 02, 2018, 05:56:00 AM
 #4635

Another cryptic blog post by Marty

what EXACTLY does he mean by the greatest trade of the century Huh

to go long NOW?

or to go long after an October crash Huh?

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/training-tools/is-the-greatest-trade-on-the-century-knocking-on-the-door-yet/

I don't know about the greatest rade of the century, but I focused more on the top part of his post:
"What you want is not to short-term TRADE but to be a position trader. People who try to trade back and forth usually get caught up in emotions and end up losing money. What you want is to POSITION TRADE for the long-haul.  Here is what happens just using the Long-term Reversals only – not even every single one. Sure, you leave some on the table. The important thing is to reduce the number of trades and your confidence will increase and you will actually make more at the end of the day."

That is, be a POSITION TRADER for the long haul.
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November 02, 2018, 06:17:02 AM
 #4636

Just want to clarify on his reader's typo of "hire" as "fire".  The chance of another reader having such flagrant typo (like Armstrong often does), together with the chance of having a super-psychic Armstrong not realizing the typo, and not correcting the typo, but simply sees "fire" as "hire" directly in his super-clairvoyant mind, is essentially zero.  A rare event of 0.01% chance can sometimes happen.  But to have two rare events of 0.01% chance happening at the same time will be 0.0001%, and that's basically impossible.

The alternative and much simpler explanation is simply that Armstrong was typing reader's questions in his mind, and obviously everything is crystal clear to him, since he is composing readers' questions.

It literally took me at least more than 2 minutes to realize that "hire" was mis-typed as "fire".

It's everything that added up, some lies here, some lies there, some mis-forecast here and there, etc.  And then I finally woke up.  And what I should have done all along was simply to test his forecast in a SYSTEMATIC way, and that would have told the story quickly, instead of having me persuading myself that I didn't understand his ECM correctly, or that I didn't subscribe to all of his private offering, etc.


Do you have links to the typo of hire and fire?
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November 02, 2018, 06:33:18 AM
 #4637

Here are the typos.  It has been a long time, and I recalled incorrectly.  It wasn't fire/hire.

It was hire/higher, but this is not from his reader.  Only showed it as an example of his typo ability.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/greenspan-sees-inflation-or-stagflation-there-is-a-difference/
a shortage in supply will result in hire prices
This is not strong evidence for your hire/fire. The User comment said higher.
Armstrong on the other hand, used hire instead of higher. So? Looks like he uses a dictating typer maybe. So instead of Armstrong typing it out, maybe he uses a computer to type it for him.

I noticed Armstrong made a lot of errors with bonds, he uses bunds a lot.

For you to discredit Armstrong on his spelling, that's harsh.

Quote
This is the typo that I intended to comment, a typo from his reader:
https://web.archive.org/web/20170725212844/https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/qa/what-books-are-there-for-monetary-history/

Keep up the hood work and see you in November.

User typo? Cut and paste? Who knows.

Here is another example of very suspicious reader's comment:
https://web.archive.org/web/20180703163201/http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/basic-concepts/the-path-of-order-rather-than-chaos-lead-to-understanding/
why the Sovereign Debt Crisis will bring Gov. Debt to 0


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So what's the chance of another person/reader who writes in this?  When was the last time that you see someone typing hood work instead of good work without realizing the typo in front of you.
What are the chances? Total all the comments, find the errors, and divide it to get the chances. Armstrong posts about 6 posts/day, so the odds are stacked in his favour.

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As I said that Armstrong is probably an above-average trader.  So he probably could get things more correct than often, but it's not as he has claimed, "AI computer" that is not biased.  You need to collect Armstrong's specific forecasts to get the actual value from his stuffs.  The problem of being ambiguous is this.  Let's say I open a stock market newsletter.  If I keep the wording ambiguous, and let's say 45% of people traded wrong and 55% of the people traded correctly, due to a combination of my forecast wording and people's innate trading intuition, there will ALWAYS be some percentage of profitable trades from whatever I say.  As long as I can keep the 45% of the losing subscribers to hang on longer, and the drop off rates is less than the incoming rate, then my newsletter business will keep booming.  And since every time the people who lose in trades may not be the same people, it's not really a big problem for the constantly changing 45% of people to hang on.  The only person among all who can always win is the person who is publishing the newsletter.
Nobody is forcing anybody to subscribe to his socrates. Those that do, they will end it if they're not profitable. $15/mth is not expensive anyway. He even gives free accounts for some of his basic pairs. Just make new emails and sign up if you don't want to pay.

These are not 100% correct, just take it with a grain of salt.

Have you signed up to his freebie accounts? It's all computer generated. It looks AI to me. Some of them pretty accurate. Others are not. Focus on position trading, and see how you go using demo accounts.

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The honest newsletter writers will post ACTUAL trades and keep a record, because they are actually good, and they have a real winning record to post for everyone to see.  Armstrong has none, and he doesn't keep track.  Again, all he needs to dispel this is to post a trade record in real-time, and shows a good trading profits from it consistently, beating index funds.  As long as it's a winning record, it's good.
I've tracked some of his AI forecast. They are not correct all the time. They even change sometimes!!!

I think if you use it as a snapshot at the time, that's how you see how it's performing. It's not a forecaster, it's just showing what's happening at that moment in time.
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November 02, 2018, 09:48:57 AM
 #4638

I dont know about AI exactly but I often notice company news appearing on google or wherever thats been generated by computers.   The paragraphs are filled out by using various formulas that use the company report data and also some TA on the traded stock movements observable on a graph.    Its kind of useful for giving the information in a usable format but also there is no human insight or reaction in that 'news'  
  The best market moves are because humans get panicked and sell too much or get too hyped similarly, however much computers are there trading the fast transactions its usually some understanding of that effect that gives the best edge.
I can remember being amazed by a talking car back in the 1980's (not luxury but a mainstream model) but I dont remember the speech recognition being there, I think it was just giving data via audio which for the time was also impressive to me anyhow

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November 02, 2018, 06:20:43 PM
 #4639

To STT,

  typo of "hood work" instead of "good work" was made in the reader's comments, NOT by Armstrong supposedly.  And that's my point.

  Most people will cut & paste over the email/etc, especially when you want to convey exactly what another person said.

  1. How did Armstrong see the typo, and not realizing the typo, if he cut & pasted over?  What is the chance of another person making that typo, AND another human being (Armstrong) not realizing the typo?
  2.  Or alternatively, Armstrong re-typed it???  That doesn't seem likely to me, since probably 99% of the people will cut & paste what others said, to convey exactly what others said.
  3. Or Armstrong made that comment up, and given his constant typo record, he just made another typo, as usual.

  You can choose option #1 to #3.  And that is NOT the only examples that I have found.  For the same thing to happen twice or three times above, I think only #2 or #3 are possible.  Again, why would I re-type something, especially if I want to convey the readers' sentiment?
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November 02, 2018, 06:22:53 PM
 #4640

By the way, for computer to speak, speech synthesis is very easy, and I myself tried to do it in 1994, with publicly available open source codes.

Speech recognition is an entirely different matter.
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