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Author Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion  (Read 617640 times)
bikefront
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October 11, 2018, 06:33:19 PM
 #4541

Armstrong is on a roll!

The Dow is trading at 25360 after we got the mid-day rally. A close today below 25454 will keep the market weak. A closing BELOW 25294 today should signal a further decline and the next low may unfold on Monday. If we get this sell signal, then we should move to the next Weekly Bearish which lies at the 24965 level and if that is elected tomorrow, then we should test the Monthly Bearish in the 23 zone next week.

We are setting the stage for a real interesting outcome here right on time for the WEC
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Kiwibird
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October 11, 2018, 08:44:55 PM
 #4542

I wish he had someone who could explain things to the layman, because it would be much easier. His if-then short term calls do well- often the kind where 'if the market closes above/below X by Y time then we will do this". They don't come too often though.
[/quote]

Did you watch the WEC 2016 Arrays & Reversals workshop (@ 2 hours) https://vimeo.com/198896912? 
You may find it helpful, although I feel you have a pretty good grasp already.

Is this finally the Slingshot move?!
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October 11, 2018, 08:52:37 PM
 #4543

Kiwibird,

  I'm not defending the bank nor USA legal system, etc.  I kept saying that probably over 95% of info on his blog is completely true.  But how are you going to tell when Armstrong slips in 5% untruth (if he did)?  And for every untruth, you need to ask yourself WHY he is saying/doing that.

  And you just need to LOOK at the facts.  FACT: His co-director was found guilty fraudulently allocating profitable trades.  CONJECTURE: Armstrong is a smart guy, and he should be aware of that.

  FACT: In 1987, fastest CPU on computer CPU was running at some 33MHz, but at year 2000, CPU was running at 3.3GHz.  In just 13 years, technology advanced by a factor of 100.  It has basically been exponential, which you can roll back further the speed to earlier than 1987 via exponential curve fitting.  Yet, Armstrong claimed that he did better than the speech recognition from Dragon dictation system before that time.  In 1987, the hard drive size was about 2MB.  Now 3TB is super-cheap.  That's a factor of 1.5 Million advancement (not to mention the cost that went down probably another 20X).
  He did show a picture with his PC, which was very similar to the one that I had.  HOW ON EARTH can he get access to such large storage that may be required and huge processing CPU power in 1970/80s, when even today, your speech is sent over via internet to Google/Apple to be processed by their cloud of servers for speech recognition, because your local CPU doesn't even have enough processing power?

  WHY did he make such claim?


  I can go on & on.  Yes, maybe he was over-punished in jail.  Yes, maybe he was mis-treated by legal systems.  But how do you explain that his co-director fraudulently allocating profitable trades?  BOTH can be true at the same time.

  Again, I'm just trying to judge his trading forecast for its own merit, and not him as a person.  Don't twist his words.  Don't twist your thinking.  Just stick to the same measuring method on his forecast array, and you can scientifically determine whether his forecast array has any (tradable) values or not.

  If I have an AI computer like his, I would just show the AI trading record on every financial market to show how successful it can be, and for trading in my personal account too.  No if-then-else.  It's either you can make money, or you don't.  But such black-and-white record if it's not successful will expose the "AI computer".


If Armstrong's charges were bogus then why not the other charges too as they all happened around the same time - connected?  Anything to discredit PEI and Armstrong.

re speech recognition I have no idea, I'm not a techie.  why don't you email to ask him?  He's replied online to my queries (related to Socrates) when I joined the membership - both he and Erwin
bikefront
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October 11, 2018, 09:02:15 PM
 #4544

I've learned to understand how it goes, it just takes a bit to process scenarios. There will be another private blog post tonight, apparently. As mentioned previously, the close today implies further downside for the Dow. Tomorrow's close for the week will obviously be important. The intraday 2760 break to test the 2720 area was also another nice call, as well as the 2795 resistance call. The Nasdaq went down much more than the Dow today. I have initiated a short position in the Dow, holding overnight, so we'll see how that fares.
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October 11, 2018, 09:15:23 PM
 #4545

Here are the typos.  It has been a long time, and I recalled incorrectly.  It wasn't fire/hire.

It was hire/higher, but this is not from his reader.  Only showed it as an example of his typo ability...

.......Here is another example of very suspicious reader's comment:
https://web.archive.org/web/20180703163201/http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/basic-concepts/the-path-of-order-rather-than-chaos-lead-to-understanding/
why the Sovereign Debt Crisis will bring Gov. Debt to 0.....
The latter serves as a good example of what I remarked upon previously about there often being a familiar syntax and style within the text of some of his "commenters" - and creepily self-congratulatory in its reply too!

.....Save the number/picture before Armstrong files a copyright infringement against web archive.org.
Looks like we need a decentralised web archive;-)

I don't think there is any real value in his ECM.  It's just a tool for him to magically play with numbers.
Astrology for traders? Perhaps a touch of the fantasist in him. I wonder how seriously we can take his "behind the curtain" remarks too. A shame, as he was one of my group of "influencers". Some re-calibrating to be done.

Generally speaking it sort of brings up this philosophical question when any person has character flaws (lies, fraudulent etc)  do we still follow them as a friend, advisor, or continue to trust their work for our own benefit ?

There is no perfect person in this world, everyone has some good and some bad.  So when someone is 70% bad and only 30% good do you still invite them to dinner at your house ?

......Really odd, I mean I love his advice and principles but then it is mixed with this odd seeming character flaw....
Yes, I agree. A tricky one. Ultimately, I guess we need to develop our individual senses when analysing the output of anyone we follow; to sort the wheat from the chaff, and use each of them in an attempt to construct some sort of robust and effective tool that is constantly being refined; hopefuly etaining the quality of being more than the sum of its varied parts.
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October 12, 2018, 02:05:43 AM
 #4546

I got answers about his arrays before.  The bars ACTUALLY do mean the price levels, as he emailed me.  And I forgot where he said this, but he said that the price levels are relative only in THAT timeframe that is being plotted.  So you cannot compare the price levels between two different array plots.



See at 2hrs 23mins - https://vimeo.com/198896912  which confirms what you have written above:

"the bars relate to price levels..the array has to match price level activity.."

The highest bars reflect the most amount of cycles hitting at that moment in time.
It's not just the top composite bar that highlights price activity by the highest bars, it's also high bars shown the other levels such as Empirical etc..
bikefront
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October 12, 2018, 03:37:48 AM
 #4547

To rectify my above post, meant that the Dow declined more. As Armstrong has said a few times, the Composite (turning point summation model) is supposed to forecast turning points, not necessarily highs or lows. Each turning point should generate the opposite event than before. For now, it looks like we can get a Monday low.
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October 12, 2018, 04:21:52 AM
 #4548

In tonight:

The Dow fell to the bottom of the Channel and actually held another Daily Bearish Reversal we have at 25052.50 closing at 2052.83. This now puts critical support on today's low and tomorrow we have a Weekly Bearish at 24965 which becomes critical. We have now generated a Weekly Bullish on our Minor model which will be 25044. To be a strong buy signal, the market must close above 25754. We still see next week as a target rather than this week. We will update tomorrow after the opening.

I wonder if I made a mistake buying puts. Still did okay today though.
bikefront
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October 12, 2018, 02:54:23 PM
 #4549

In this morning:

Yesterday was a Directional Change and the next target is Monday 15th. We can see that the market fell and held the bottom of the uptrend channel. This does not guarantee that the decline is over. It merely suggests that we can get that bounce into Monday and then resume the decline. It all depends upon the closing and a close below 25753 today will tend to warn that we can resume the decline.
I posted the view of the DAX. Note that there the high remains January. This is indicative of the fact that the Capital Flows have moved into the USA and this was the drive behind the Dow Rally into October. This has been a foreign capital inflow based upon the dollar and the pessimistic views outside the USA concerning Europe and China.We can see that the targets will be the 15th and 18th/19th next week. We expect volatility to rise into the end of next week crossing over into the week of the 22nd.
We can see we have a Directional Change the week of the 22nd and then we have the week of the elections which will be followed by Panic Cycle the week of 11/26. High volatility will remain next week as well.
The Reversals will be the determining factor for these moves. A closing above 25044 today should imply a bounce into Monday for 2 days and then back down. A closing today below 24965 will signal a drop ahead of another 1,000 points.

 
MA_talk
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October 12, 2018, 07:28:23 PM
 #4550

Kiwibird, do you agree that ECM is the CORE of Armstrong modeling?

If you agree with that, do you agree that 8.6 is not equal to 8.61513, and do you agree that Oct 7th, 2015, is not the same date as Oct 1st, 2015?   However, both sets of dates & numbers are DIRECTLY from Armstrong, when he keeps claiming the accuracy down to the day.

Wouldn't you think that there is something wrong, when the fundamental core of his modelling is just NOT right, and he needs to make it correct, by playing with the numbers?

I cannot debate anything with you on his jail term, when you simply just want to believe 100% in Armstrong.

To believe in anything or any people, you cannot assume anything that is true (against or for).  You collect your evidences as they come along.  If a guy tells any lie, then that is a red flag.  If a guy tell two lies, then that is a bigger red flag.  If a guy shows a pattern of telling lies constantly, then this guy is a fraud.

Whatever his forecasts and however he (or the reader) wants to twist it and understand it, it's fine.  But math never lies.  8.6 is not the same as 8.615, because if I assume that they are close enough, then I subtract 8.6 on both sides, and I will get 0 = 0.015.  And then I multiply both side by 1/0.015, and then I get 0 = 1, and then I add 1 to both sides, and I can get 1 = 2, and then all the numbers in the universe can be made equal (and likewise all the dates can be fit somehow into his 8.6/PI number).  A 1% error in his math or number of 8.6 after thousands of years will produce very big differences later.  But he doesn't seem to realize that.

Armstrong knows nothing about uncertainty and errors of such, nor does he calibrate anything.  His AI computer is perfectly and accurate down to the day as always.

Before year 2009 or so, his ECM cycle plot NEVER had the PI date on it.  Now, he adds that PI date too within his ECM plots of 8.6 years.  The more I think about why that is, I could only come to one conclusion.  It's just great for number playing.
bikefront
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October 12, 2018, 07:55:05 PM
 #4551

It looks like the Dow should close above 25044. Therefore, according to the forecast, Monday should be an up day.
bikefront
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October 12, 2018, 09:28:55 PM
 #4552

Also, because he said bounce for 2 days, this means rally into Wednesday-Thursday. Thursday is a Panic Cycle and Friday is a turning point. Friday also shows a high amount of volatility. So unless Armstrong posts more updates, the plan is to go long until Thursday. That is when it would be time to go short again.
bikefront
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October 13, 2018, 07:33:21 PM
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 #4553

MA, I'll say that the ECM is NOT the core of Armstrong's modeling. In fact, he has stated that only the Reversals and Arrays are market trading tools. It will be interesting to see how next week plays out. I do not even pay any attention to the ECM at all. I would not get hung up on it UNLESS one is investigating Nostradamus-like claims. Armstrong did mention that we do not know what fundamentals will be involved. But the ECM simply is not something to be used for trading.

It does seem, from a technical perspective, that we can get a bounce for a few days before turning back down during the end of the week. However, there appear to be many 'not surprising' possibilities and to choose the correct one and pinpointing the timing is not an easy thing to do. So far, his calls on directional volatility have been highly accurate, no? You've said that his trading is essentially just usual technical analysis- but I suppose he allows the computer to do those things. I've seen some of the charting Socrates does and it looks very unorthodox at times in discerning support and resistance levels. At other times, it looks just like the same things I do. The difference is that it purports to know which point is the one where a trend actually reverses, and which point means that it will be either a real breakout or a trap or bounce- and the timeframe for that. Trading in extreme volatility is not easy, and when price range is very wide, knowing the difference and discerning critical points is important. We can say we need more time in order to determine Socrates' short term forecasting abilities, but for now, it has been spot on, as evidenced by the recent previous posts.
bikefront
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October 15, 2018, 01:29:39 PM
 #4554

A retest of lows today implies a bounce into Wednesday. Exceeding the Friday high today warns of a risk of decline for the week.
bikefront
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October 15, 2018, 07:36:04 PM
 #4555

We exceeded Friday's high on this Monday turning point. Therefore, I am thinking we go red tomorrow.
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October 15, 2018, 09:53:53 PM
 #4556

It looks like the Dow should close above 25044. Therefore, according to the forecast, Monday should be an up day.

Monday today was not an up day.

Armstrong obviously did not make an aggressive call on the recent market drop, according to another subscriber who said he wasn't warned.
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October 15, 2018, 10:07:50 PM
 #4557

Also, because he said bounce for 2 days, this means rally into Wednesday-Thursday. Thursday is a Panic Cycle and Friday is a turning point. Friday also shows a high amount of volatility. So unless Armstrong posts more updates, the plan is to go long until Thursday. That is when it would be time to go short again.

Bounce for 2 days?  You (Armstrong) mean this Wed & Thursday.  My problem is that he is never clear.  And so he can be always "right".

Turning Point (TP) supposedly by the English definition is that it is a local maximum or local minimum point.  Somehow, that's just not always the case for Armstrong.

And then he sort of explained that it's only when you get to Direction Change (DC) that you see bigger trend change.  But I don't think that works that well all the time either.

With both DC and TP plotted everywhere, and also Armstrong's liberal explanation, AND worst of all, not even indicating whether it's a peak or a bottom, now it becomes extremely hard to use that to trade.  Plus you can get cycle inversion, which means the original forecasted max becomes min, or vice versa.  WTF!  You cannot even rely on counting successive TP/DC to determine the max or min points on the curve due to cycle inversion.

My whole point about ECM is that Armstrong is NOT consistent in using the value of 8.6.  The fact that he is NOT consistent, indicates that he very likely tries to cheat his way out by playing with numbers.  The possibilities of other lies in other stuffs that he said increases dramatically, especially given the fact that he puts SO MUCH emphasis about ECM, that he was willing to put that 8-digit 8.6 number in the HEADLINE section of his blog.  Obviously, he must think it is important and integral to all of what he is doing, or else why would he put that 8-digit 8.6 number there.

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October 15, 2018, 10:24:54 PM
 #4558

According to Armstrong, DOW should go down into the week, and on Friday?? Also Gold should go up into November, and if it breaks Monthly Bullish Reversal 1362 then continue going up into January. If not, then down into January. That's how I'm reading his arrays.
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October 15, 2018, 11:11:22 PM
 #4559

Yes, he said bounce into Monday into a turning point but a Reversal was generated from the lows. The turning point needs to be the opposite, but it is done on a closing or intra event. Looking at the arrays, the Composite showed today generating a high or a low. The reversals show the level. Because a high was generated, the next point needs to be the opposite, therefore a low late in the week. Just play by the numbers as they come. The Directional Change usually can mean many things so its a bit iffy, but when paired with a turning point, it tends to signify min/max. I believe the Cycle inversion was referring only to the monthly level, not on the daily timeframe- otherwise, only highs would be generated every other day or so. As stated, today exceeded Friday's high, so therefore the market should turn down to a low

I haven't been following gold tbh.
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October 15, 2018, 11:32:33 PM
 #4560

I'm not Armstrong savvy, yet. I noticed that monthly array on Gold, is scary accurate so far. Let's see will it play out all the way.
Just the reversals can be a powerful tool, and coupled with the arrays (time), even more. Would love to figure out how reversals are generated. Appears to be Fibonacci style (horizontal, don't depend on trend lines), but as I did check not always match Fibonacci. I know they are to be elected on closing level, but are the reversals calculated on the closing, or intraday levels, hmmm?
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