Martin Armstrong Discussion

[Lateralus]

We are in the process of updating our site, migrating data, and transitioning to a new infrastructure.
You may experience delays and discrepancies during this time. We appreciate your patience and understanding.

The reversals are not "changing", Socrates still does not have all the requisite data. The reversals are not entirely accurate right now, although they do seem to be filling out and I'm noticing less discrepancies every day.

[1714284651]

1714284651

[trc4949]

new members blog post today, can you guys post it? I still can't sign in because of all the code bugs presently.

[Kiwibird]

We elected a Long-Term Monthly Bullish in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Of course, the market held the 21600 Monthly Bearish Reversal. Electing this Long-Term Monthly Bullish Reversal is suggesting that we are not dealing with a broader change in trend. We are facing a change in public sentiment and 2020 appears to be a serious change in trend insofar as people among the general public will begin to question government. This shutdown has only demonstrated that Washington has collapsed into just party politics. As I have have stated, the wall was $5.7 billion and one week's interest payments are $6.7 billion. So it was never a matter of money. It was just party politics at its best. This means that we have crossed the line and government is no longer capable of managing anything. As pensions and debt become the crisis post-2020, both sides will just be blaming the other and nobody will be interested in actually solving anything. We can expect SUBSTANTIAL tax increases from the Democrats enough to really wipe out economic growth.
The prospects for the US share market remain intact. We are looking at the Greatest Trade of a lifetime coming on the next train. Washington and all governments are now hopelessly lost. They will not face the implosion of socialism as all their promises cannot be funded. They will give it a good shot raising every tax they can think of. But that will not be enough to save the day.
The number on the Dow are confirming we are by no means facing a major bear market. This is still in the staging process for wild times ahead.

[Lateralus]

The DOW just closed above the 25003 weekly reversal at 25063. The S&P 500 failed to elect its first monthly reversal, but the DOW has managed to elect both the monthly and the weekly.

No clear signal for the direction of the indexes.

[trc4949]

So the trade of a lifetime is basically the DJIA going up in a vertical moonshot to 40,000 to 60,000 after basing a bit more into mid year this year

[Alex-11]

new members blog post today, can you guys post it? I still can't sign in because of all the code bugs presently.

Log-in should not a problem of the website anymore. I've had not issues with login for the whole  last week and almost no such reports from other members.
This sounds like you have issues with your browser. I suggest that you try a different computer or your smartphone for log-in.

[spunj]

So the trade of a lifetime is basically the DJIA going up in a vertical moonshot to 40,000 to 60,000 after basing a bit more into mid year this year

Or, bonds will crater these next two years as yields go up. 

[MA_talk]

The Panic Cycle next week might mean exceeding Friday's high during the week but closing lower, leaving the week of the 21st with the highest close. The 25100 was not tested and might even test during next week. But, I don't know. What does seem to be forecasted, however, is no change in downtrend. Trading cautiously for now, if at all.

Just checking up on Armstrong's recent history.  I checked QQQ/SPY/DIA for the week from Jan 28 to Feb1 versus the prior week.  Based on your post, Armstrong said that that week is a PANIC CYCLE, which based on my understanding of Armstrong in the last two decades, it should have meant an Outside week at the minimum (meaning exceeding both low/high from prior time interval).

That did NOT happen.  In fact, the best description for that week would be just trending up.

That is NOT anywhere close to a PANIC CYCLE.

And again, the only folks who will be stuck to the trading losses are the subscribers and never Armstrong.  Does he actually go BACK to look at his own words or words from AI(?) and check and see if that was anywhere close to accurate???

He HIMSELF said that the fractal structure of the market repeats from year, month, week, day, and down to seconds.  So if he/his AI canNOT get the week right, how can he get the month/year right? (Especially given that he cannot tell the difference between 8.6 vs 8.615, etc.)

It is my personal opinion that he does have some automated technical analysis software which doesn't really work.  The way he maintains his "track record" is just by continuously throwing darts at the board, and hope that one of them hits the bulls eye.  And of course, by simply throwing enough darts (and for higher probability outcome), he surely will and have hit big calls.  BUT you canNOT trade off from such.
 It's like ahead of the time, you can NEVER figure out which active mutual fund manager will give you an out-sized return, and you choose him to invest all of your money.  In hindsight, yes.  So it's the same with ALL of Armstrong calls.  In hindsight, yes, he made AMAZING calls.  BUT how are you going to tell BEFOREHAND, which calls are going to let you earn big profits???

Armstrong is only counting all of the winning calls, but for an actual trader/investor, he or she will most likely be counting all of the losses instead together with the winning calls.

And therefore personally I will never subscribe to any stock newsletters that don't even dare to put up the trading record based on their own analysis in the newsletters.

Talk is cheap.  Profits are hard to come by.

[sloanf]

what? Armstrong was wrong? That's unheard of! It never ever happened in decades of his brilliant career of managing trillions, consulting head of states, central banks, Blackrock, Pimco, etc!

When will idiots finally realize one simple thing: if charlatan Armstrong knew anything or was able to trade himself, he would not be sitting on a free website selling students, unemployed and other broke losers $5 subscription. Soros, Icahn, Dalio, Buffett and the likes don't sell you anything and don't bs you with made-up history and bogus economics. 

[Lateralus]

The latest monthly arrays are showing a panic cycle AND volatility in both the S&P 500 and Dow for February, and the weekly arrays are showing this week as a panic cycle. I wouldn't be surprised to see a massive blowoff this week to shake out all the shorts and get everyone on the wrong side as Martin talks about, especially considering the lack of pressure from any weekly reversals in the DOW between here and 25966. That kind of rally would also go through 200 DMA in the S&P 500, which would be perfect for squeezing out every last short. We don't even have any daily reversals in the S&P 500 until 2785.

With that said it is possible the rally today could be the high and we gap down tomorrow, but I am leaning towards a bigger "blowoff". Whatever the case, I think this is a crucial week and I will be paying very close attention. Gold hasn't dropped much yet but I'm not worried, all my sources of analysis are saying the high is in so I would be very surprised if we broke towards new highs. We closed January 1 point below the first monthly Gold reversal, if that isn't the perfect test of Martin's system then I don't know what is.

[Thekees]

The latest monthly arrays are showing a panic cycle AND volatility in both the S&P 500 and Dow for February, and the weekly arrays are showing this week as a panic cycle. I wouldn't be surprised to see a massive blowoff this week to shake out all the shorts and get everyone on the wrong side as Martin talks about, especially considering the lack of pressure from any weekly reversals in the DOW between here and 25966. That kind of rally would also go through 200 DMA in the S&P 500, which would be perfect for squeezing out every last short. We don't even have any daily reversals in the S&P 500 until 2785.

With that said it is possible the rally today could be the high and we gap down tomorrow, but I am leaning towards a bigger "blowoff". Whatever the case, I think this is a crucial week and I will be paying very close attention. Gold hasn't dropped much yet but I'm not worried, all my sources of analysis are saying the high is in so I would be very surprised if we broke towards new highs. We closed January 1 point below the first monthly Gold reversal, if that isn't the perfect test of Martin's system then I don't know what is.

There is a gap between the elected weekly and then next at 25966 but there are 4 daily reversals inbetween so I guess how quick we elect those will determine the timing but according to the reversal system the weekly should reach the next reversal. 

I agree on gold, its crazy that it got so close. I had that reversal in place since July when Socrates was positing only one weekly and one monthly reversal, just insane.

For people who are curious, the EURUSD elected a daily bearish at 1.14410 with the next at 1.13340 but there is still some technical support around 1.13800.

As armstrong says, follow the reversals and arrays, so maybe we should just use his numbers. What has always been frustrating with his posts is that they are so few and he never gives all the numbers and also does not update, the new socrates does do this, so you will know where to place entries, stops and when to get out and reverse.

Just giving these numbers so people here have something tangible, I may update the EURUSD for a while so people can see for themselves if socrates is accurate. But for 150$ you have all the info on all timescales so just go try it for a month, if you think its BS then stop your subscription and look for something else, that´s what I am doing.
 

[McBryde]

For people who are curious, the EURUSD elected a daily bearish at 1.14410 with the next at 1.13340 but there is still some technical support around 1.13800.
...Just giving these numbers so people here have something tangible, I may update the EURUSD for a while so people can see for themselves if socrates is accurate. But for 150$ you have all the info on all timescales so just go try it for a month, if you think its BS then stop your subscription and look for something else, that´s what I am doing.
 

I see it penetrated that reversal, Kees. Do you have any further bearish reversal levels?
Thanks.

[Thekees]

For people who are curious, the EURUSD elected a daily bearish at 1.14410 with the next at 1.13340 but there is still some technical support around 1.13800.
...Just giving these numbers so people here have something tangible, I may update the EURUSD for a while so people can see for themselves if socrates is accurate. But for 150$ you have all the info on all timescales so just go try it for a month, if you think its BS then stop your subscription and look for something else, that´s what I am doing.
 

I see it penetrated that reversal, Kees. Do you have any further bearish reversal levels?
Thanks.

I had my TP at that level but I think it could eventually go lower. There is a small group of daily bearish reversals around 1.1298, which is also a weekly bearish. I am going to be buying here.

Another trade I took is the GBPUSD. It apparently had elected a few bullish reversals what were below the low. Armstrong has commented before that sometimes Socrates will generate a bullish reversal below price, I think thats what happened.
Anyway, I took profit and went long at, and I am not joking, 1.28580 since the reversal was a 1.28550. Its just ridiculous, how can it be so accurate.

Who else here have the Premium account?   

[McBryde]

Another trade I took is the GBPUSD. It apparently had elected a few bullish reversals what were below the low. Armstrong has commented before that sometimes Socrates will generate a bullish reversal below price, I think thats what happened.
Anyway, I took profit and went long at, and I am not joking, 1.28580 since the reversal was a 1.28550. Its just ridiculous, how can it be so accurate.

And do you get out at the next floor [daily/weekly bullish?]

Who else here have the Premium account?    

I had the basic account for about a year. But I really couldn't make money on it. I need to build up my account after a lot of losses. Then I might consider premium. I suffered a season of reverse intuition, I think. Not easy to get out of a crashdive like that, when it's psychological.
Still, I made a bit on your euro info - thank you! Perhaps the spell is broken.

[trc4949]

does anyone here still see gold printing a few bucks under 1000 this year still ?

Armstrong has said that gold hitting 995 would get all the bulls to throw in the towel and all the shorts to go 200% short with margin....   and would setup a bull run that never looks back...

But 995 seems quite a ways down from here now...

Brexit no deal and maybe China no deal could lead to a deflationary plunge into mid year maybe ?

[Lateralus]

I still think sub 1000 gold is possible, but it would have to be this year imho. We closed January 1 point under the first monthly bullish reversal on gold, so we should be turning back down now.

[footlong24seven]

Where do the arrays stand now? We're floating just below 25.1k. Also, can someone quantify this "trade of the century"?. I'm guessing when bonds are worthless the game is up, and real (movable) assets take off? Aka US shares? He's always harping on the Russel 2000. Anyone have insights? 

[Lateralus]

Where do the arrays stand now? We're floating just below 25.1k. Also, can someone quantify this "trade of the century"?. I'm guessing when bonds are worthless the game is up, and real (movable) assets take off? Aka US shares? He's always harping on the Russel 2000. Anyone have insights? 

They are are calling for a panic cycle this month and high volatility. We'll see what happens.

[thatbluedude]

He's always harping on the Russel 2000. Anyone have insights? 

what do you mean? afair his blog post are always about the dow and S&P500?

[MA_talk]

Where do the arrays stand now? We're floating just below 25.1k. Also, can someone quantify this "trade of the century"?. I'm guessing when bonds are worthless the game is up, and real (movable) assets take off? Aka US shares? He's always harping on the Russel 2000. Anyone have insights? 

They are are calling for a panic cycle this month and high volatility. We'll see what happens.

8 trading days left not counting today.  Very sorry to see that Armstrong appears to be wrong (again), since I sold and wanted to buy.

How in the world is this month a Panic Cycle?  The month is definitely not over, but for an "outside" month to occur, it needs to exceed both high & low from previous month.  Even if it's not an outside month, to be called Panic Cycle, it should exceed the low or at least exhibit high volatility.  Well, the current market in Feb is anything, but that.  Is my English or Armstrong's English is so poor that I cannot understand what a Panic Cycle should mean?

Let's wait and see what happens for the next 8 trading days.  And I so hope that I'm proven wrong here.