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Author Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion  (Read 615332 times)
MA_talk
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November 02, 2018, 06:25:30 PM
 #4641

And Armstrong did NOT get the interest rate correct.  The lowest was in 2016 July for 30-year US treasury bond.  Please check TLT stock symbol chart.

Or actually, I should say that Armstrong never said that he got that right either, because that date couldn't be mapped to any of his ECM date, and so he didn't make a claim, or else he probably would.
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November 02, 2018, 06:40:28 PM
 #4642

To KiwiBird, I appreciate you filling me in with those info on Larry.  I joined this thread not too long ago, and there are 200+ pages, and obviously I didn't scroll back to read any of that.

The way that I first found out about Armstrong was that I did an internet search, and found out that he predicted 1987 crash.  Maybe he really did get it right, as from what you have observed & collected for your evidences.

In any case, the most important thing now is whether he can repeat the one-time wonder on a constant basis.

And as I've said repeatedly, the best way to go about it is to treat this as a scientific problem, formulate your hypothesis, and test your hypothesis scientifically without any bias.  You cannot parse out Armstrong's sentences that work, and ignore the sentences that don't work.  At the minimum, you need to do it methodically.

And we don't need a 100% accuracy prediction to trade profitably.  But we need to know how much trading edge to size our bets.

And nothing that can be based off what has happened (closing prices).  The hypothesis must be about something in the future.  We can't trade the past to make a profit.  We can only trade given a forward expectation.  Translate your hypothesis methodically into buy/sell transactions (on paper or for real).  If you can make a good profit, then PLEASE report it here, and let us know.  If not, let us know too.

I just have issues with taking a sentence here and there from Armstrong.  That's basically going by your personal intuition on top of Armstrong's.  That is not a testable hypothesis.
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November 02, 2018, 10:02:44 PM
 #4643

MA, I think we've already established that the ECM can't be used to make trades. Armstrong himself says only arrays and reversals are used for trading. The ECM is only something that can be used to claim something in retrospect. It isn't practical. He said himself that we don't know what the fundamentals will be on those dates. The ECM and arrays are different, and function differently.

Could you clarify your statement about closing prices? It is my understanding that Reversals only work based on closes in order to forecast future price action. So if a Bearish Reversal is 1000 price closes at 999 and the next Reversal is 900, then that means that the price will test the 900 level in the future. If you look at a previous post I made, you can see that Armstrong said we will likely re-test support in the 25500-25000 range. We also closed UNDER the number he gave which signaled the support test. That happened. The rest of the numbers he gave were continuation signals; that is, if the market closed under those numbers, then it should continue to press lower. That happened. Now, the ideal low on a closing or intra-week basis should be next week according to his forecast. That might be when the market can be bought. He may post something over the weekend, so I'll post it here. He also is calling for a November high in gold (he called the bounce too, but not the low) so we'll see if that pans out. Reversals confirm or deny a move to the next point.

Armstrong did also call for a volatile 2018 at the beginning of January.

Didja see my gold call? Entry and exit forecasted to almost to the exact tick. I'm the next Martin Armstrong! lol
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November 03, 2018, 01:00:49 AM
 #4644

MA, I did actually use a small account with real money to trade using purely Armstrong's predictions. I made a gain of 600% in 2 days before blowing up on a gap that went the wrong way on 0 day SPX options. Each trade was all in. It was excessively stupid, but an interesting experiment nonetheless. Of couse, it would be difficult to ascern validity with such a small amount of time and virtually no risk management. Had I used normal weekly options, I would have ended up with a gain. My own trading style is quite different, and I do not use the indexes.
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November 03, 2018, 01:10:12 AM
 #4645

MA, I did actually use a small account with real money to trade using purely Armstrong's predictions. I made a gain of 600% in 2 days before blowing up on a gap that went the wrong way on 0 day SPX options. Each trade was all in. It was excessively stupid, but an interesting experiment nonetheless. Of couse, it would be difficult to ascern validity with such a small amount of time and virtually no risk management. Had I used normal weekly options, I would have ended up with a gain. My own trading style is quite different, and I do not use the indexes.
i can take any strategy mostly and turn it profitable with money management only
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November 03, 2018, 02:22:39 AM
 #4646

Is Armstrong or his model looking for a crash into November 21st ?  Confused at the current juncture.
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November 03, 2018, 01:21:58 PM
 #4647

MA, I did actually use a small account with real money to trade using purely Armstrong's predictions. I made a gain of 600% in 2 days before blowing up on a gap that went the wrong way on 0 day SPX options. Each trade was all in. It was excessively stupid, but an interesting experiment nonetheless. Of couse, it would be difficult to ascern validity with such a small amount of time and virtually no risk management. Had I used normal weekly options, I would have ended up with a gain. My own trading style is quite different, and I do not use the indexes.
i can take any strategy mostly and turn it profitable with money management only

To make it without management is far more impressive- but yes, management is part of being a good trader. In fact, one can say that with bad/no management, any strategy can be turned unprofitable.

TRC, why do you say a potential crash then? I think it's just some fundamental stuff based on ECM. There was no Monthly Bearish elected but he said most likely a low next week.
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November 04, 2018, 02:13:59 PM
 #4648


Marty also said the Dax had a bearish monthly at 11868 which we elected now, he says there is a massive gap now till 10400. I just wonder what he means by gap, will it drop to the next level in only 1 time frame, so it should get there by December?


I had asked a similar question a while ago re the DOW to Socrates Support and had a reply (from Erwin I think) regarding the election of Reversals and the time frame.  
His reply: "...If reversals are taken out you don't wait. The rule is, if we close above/below more then 1%, then the market will retrace to the reversal with no time given.
The rule of 3 applies to any reaction in a bear market usually the 3 time units. So if a rally is expected look for 3 time units.  Strong bear market 3 days or weeks. If a market needs to align itself like gold with other cycles it can be 3 quarters or 3 years as in Gold now.."

So the DAX closed 31 Oct at 1144751 and the Monthly Bear was "..1186880. Taking out this area and we have a large GAP down to the 1040000 zone.."
The September close was 1226589 and it closed October at 1144751, more than 1% past the 1186880 Monthly Reversal.  As there is a gap down i would class this as a strong bear market, so the 3 time-unit rally back up to test the reversal would be 3 days or weeks only - then gap down to 10400 by...? That 10400 price in my mind would intercede with TIME, so yes I think the next Time factors Marty mentions are "..We will also see December and February begin to shape up as important turning points which should produce the opposite of each other."

(Where he says "if the reversals are taken out you don't wait" was in relation to my query regarding the the DOW which was in its Bullish Phase Transition.  In that respect, taking out Bullish reversals by more than 1% in that sort of market, you just jump in and don't wait for any retest, because there is unlikely to be one in such a bullish market, and every Time turning point becomes a cycle inversion with new highs each time.)

Thanks Kiwi, this is good to know.

Since the monthly array indicates a high in November it could be likely to be a 3 week rally back up so it can still close bullish on the month?
If it is just 3 days then the Dax will need to rally to the elected reversal on Monday, if it dos not, can we then assume it will be a 3 week retest?

The same should apply now for the EURUSD now the monthly reversal at 1.5530 has been elected, looks like it should be a 3 week rally back up, but I guess the problem we have is that unless Marty indicates there is a gap then we wont know, since for the time being Socrates only gives one reversal, which does not have to be the closest. Also, I read that the 1% rules is not valid if multiple reversals are elected at the same time, so only in the case of the DAX can we now be sure that the 1% rule is likely to take place. 


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November 04, 2018, 03:18:59 PM
Last edit: November 04, 2018, 03:34:08 PM by Thekees
 #4649

I just had a look at the Array of the DAX again, there is also a Directional change for November so I guess anything can happen.
Also for the weekly array, next week is a turning point with a lot of volatility predicted for that week and the two weeks after that and we even have a panic cycle on the 11/26. So much volatility could be an indication for the 13+% drop needed to reach the next monthly reversal.
Lets see what happens, it will interesting to watch for sure.
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November 04, 2018, 03:28:24 PM
 #4650

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/politics/us-political-2018-midterm-elections/ Reversals and Arrays...for political parties. Wow. Never expected something like that.
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November 04, 2018, 10:28:36 PM
 #4651

MA, I did actually use a small account with real money to trade using purely Armstrong's predictions. I made a gain of 600% in 2 days before blowing up on a gap that went the wrong way on 0 day SPX options. Each trade was all in. It was excessively stupid, but an interesting experiment nonetheless. Of couse, it would be difficult to ascern validity with such a small amount of time and virtually no risk management. Had I used normal weekly options, I would have ended up with a gain. My own trading style is quite different, and I do not use the indexes.
i can take any strategy mostly and turn it profitable with money management only

To make it without management is far more impressive- but yes, management is part of being a good trader. In fact, one can say that with bad/no management, any strategy can be turned unprofitable.

TRC, why do you say a potential crash then? I think it's just some fundamental stuff based on ECM. There was no Monthly Bearish elected but he said most likely a low next week.
good MM is a prerequisite to any sucessful system what im saying is you had bad MM and got lucky the strategy didnt matter
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November 05, 2018, 03:25:19 AM
 #4652

I say potential crash because he has written before about nasdaq crash down into the election, then he also talked about the entire cycle inverting and we go DOWN into 2020.  It seems the final verdict is still in play.  This idea of just consolidation now or on to new highs is not settled yet.

Also long term oscilattors such as MACD are turning down now as compared to 2016 election when everything was turning up

and last but not least the number of days from now until November 21 which is the ECM date, is the same number of days from the final high point of the 1929 peak right before a 40% PLUNGE in the DJIA

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November 05, 2018, 01:24:52 PM
 #4653

I say potential crash because he has written before about nasdaq crash down into the election, then he also talked about the entire cycle inverting and we go DOWN into 2020.  It seems the final verdict is still in play.  This idea of just consolidation now or on to new highs is not settled yet.

Also long term oscilattors such as MACD are turning down now as compared to 2016 election when everything was turning up

and last but not least the number of days from now until November 21 which is the ECM date, is the same number of days from the final high point of the 1929 peak right before a 40% PLUNGE in the DJIA



Maybe, but he also posted

"The number to watch will be 23995 followed by 23340. These are the two important numbers to watch for month end closing. Keep in mind that electing both will point to a Panic to the downside will point to a test of the 21-22000 area. Keep in mind that at year-end, we need a closing above 24720.

So, nothing yet indicates anything serious just yet. A slingshot move would certainly come into play if we get a monthly close below 23995. However, a closing BELOW 22415 at the end of the month will also warn of a decline into November."

We diden´t elect any of these numbers. As he has said before, how fast the reversals are elected also serve as an indication how severe the crash will be.
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November 05, 2018, 08:38:53 PM
 #4654

I've been following this thread for a while now and just registered because I needed to rant on this.

Why in God's name did he decide to explain away his incorrect position by posting the DJIA closing numbers in f*cking Euros this past week?

Look at this post:

Quote
Here is the Dow Jones Industrial Index in dollars and Euro, While we have had this sell-off and everyone was touting interest rates & trade, it was really about the upcoming elections where the polls project the House will go back to the Democrats. This will only ensure further economic stagnation for the Democrats will do everything in their power to undermine Trump just so they can win back the Presidency in 2020. This enbittered style of politics is just divisive and ensures that the economy will only get worse.

Nonetheless, the market bounced with the Directional Change as it should have. However, the capital flows have swung again. While they turned negative at the top fearing the US elections, the loss of Merkel's CDU and her stepping down as party leader is the prelude to Merkel going out the door. We could even see this develop as soon as December.

Now look at the Dow in Euro compared to dollars. When the dollar perspective looks like a crash, the Euro perspective should a minor correction and support. The question is not how crazy things get in the USA, but how out of the mind things become in Europe in the aftermath of Merkel. Just look at the two charts with a simple uptrend line from the same point, What a difference a currency makes.

WTF?! This makes no bloody sense. You're telling me that I need to start looking at different indices in varying foreign currencies to understand his BS? His stupid trading platform even was calling for a "Waterfall Event"and now it says "Brief Pause". What the hell does that mean?

Marty seriously needs to start using spellcheck.

Someone out there needs to make a counter blog where they post Marty's predictions with a screenshot of the blog post. Then when it doesn't come true, flame the heck out of him for his fake crap.
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November 05, 2018, 08:55:36 PM
 #4655

I've been following this thread for a while now and just registered because I needed to rant on this.

Why in God's name did he decide to explain away his incorrect position by posting the DJIA closing numbers in f*cking Euros this past week?

Look at this post:

Quote
Here is the Dow Jones Industrial Index in dollars and Euro, While we have had this sell-off and everyone was touting interest rates & trade, it was really about the upcoming elections where the polls project the House will go back to the Democrats. This will only ensure further economic stagnation for the Democrats will do everything in their power to undermine Trump just so they can win back the Presidency in 2020. This enbittered style of politics is just divisive and ensures that the economy will only get worse.

Nonetheless, the market bounced with the Directional Change as it should have. However, the capital flows have swung again. While they turned negative at the top fearing the US elections, the loss of Merkel's CDU and her stepping down as party leader is the prelude to Merkel going out the door. We could even see this develop as soon as December.

Now look at the Dow in Euro compared to dollars. When the dollar perspective looks like a crash, the Euro perspective should a minor correction and support. The question is not how crazy things get in the USA, but how out of the mind things become in Europe in the aftermath of Merkel. Just look at the two charts with a simple uptrend line from the same point, What a difference a currency makes.

WTF?! This makes no bloody sense. You're telling me that I need to start looking at different indices in varying foreign currencies to understand his BS? His stupid trading platform even was calling for a "Waterfall Event"and now it says "Brief Pause". What the hell does that mean?

Marty seriously needs to start using spellcheck.

Someone out there needs to make a counter blog where they post Marty's predictions with a screenshot of the blog post. Then when it doesn't come true, flame the heck out of him for his fake crap.

I think this is more of a longer term comment as he says, "we could even see this develop as a soon as December". I think what he is saying here is that there is not a complete meltdown but just a correction which does not mean there will be a new high tomorrow. The weekly array and the elected reversal still point to a low for this week and tomorrow is the ideal turning point. I don´t think he is trying to explain away position, he is trying to point out that there is no sign of a complete meltdown and that we are still in a staging or consolidation phase.

I do agree that he is not clear and i am always going back to re-read his comments to figure out what the hell he means.



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November 05, 2018, 09:10:30 PM
 #4656


Marty also said the Dax had a bearish monthly at 11868 which we elected now, he says there is a massive gap now till 10400. I just wonder what he means by gap, will it drop to the next level in only 1 time frame, so it should get there by December?


I had asked a similar question a while ago re the DOW to Socrates Support and had a reply (from Erwin I think) regarding the election of Reversals and the time frame.  
His reply: "...If reversals are taken out you don't wait. The rule is, if we close above/below more then 1%, then the market will retrace to the reversal with no time given.
The rule of 3 applies to any reaction in a bear market usually the 3 time units. So if a rally is expected look for 3 time units.  Strong bear market 3 days or weeks. If a market needs to align itself like gold with other cycles it can be 3 quarters or 3 years as in Gold now.."

So the DAX closed 31 Oct at 1144751 and the Monthly Bear was "..1186880. Taking out this area and we have a large GAP down to the 1040000 zone.."
The September close was 1226589 and it closed October at 1144751, more than 1% past the 1186880 Monthly Reversal.  As there is a gap down i would class this as a strong bear market, so the 3 time-unit rally back up to test the reversal would be 3 days or weeks only - then gap down to 10400 by...? That 10400 price in my mind would intercede with TIME, so yes I think the next Time factors Marty mentions are "..We will also see December and February begin to shape up as important turning points which should produce the opposite of each other."

(Where he says "if the reversals are taken out you don't wait" was in relation to my query regarding the the DOW which was in its Bullish Phase Transition.  In that respect, taking out Bullish reversals by more than 1% in that sort of market, you just jump in and don't wait for any retest, because there is unlikely to be one in such a bullish market, and every Time turning point becomes a cycle inversion with new highs each time.)

Thanks Kiwi, this is good to know.

Since the monthly array indicates a high in November it could be likely to be a 3 week rally back up so it can still close bullish on the month?
If it is just 3 days then the Dax will need to rally to the elected reversal on Monday, if it dos not, can we then assume it will be a 3 week retest?

The same should apply now for the EURUSD now the monthly reversal at 1.5530 has been elected, looks like it should be a 3 week rally back up, but I guess the problem we have is that unless Marty indicates there is a gap then we wont know, since for the time being Socrates only gives one reversal, which does not have to be the closest. Also, I read that the 1% rules is not valid if multiple reversals are elected at the same time, so only in the case of the DAX can we now be sure that the 1% rule is likely to take place. 



I have the same queries as you based on the time frame of the rallies in a bear market..hindsight will help us test our hypothesis...

I also asked Erwin about Socrates reversal numbers.. I asked are the reversals quoted the 'Major' ones or just the 'next in line' - and he confirmed the written Reversals on the Investor level are the 'next in line'.
Yes it makes it harder when you don't have all the Reversals to hand to see gaps etc, but once the Trader Level comes live, he confirmed that you will be able to subscribe to just one instrument if you wish (i.e. Gold Futures) and get the all the reversals and arrays for just that.  That would be cheaper than paying the much higher subscription rate that gives full access to everything.
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November 05, 2018, 09:16:50 PM
 #4657

I've been following this thread for a while now and just registered because I needed to rant on this.

Why in God's name did he decide to explain away his incorrect position by posting the DJIA closing numbers in f*cking Euros this past week?

Look at this post:

Quote
Here is the Dow Jones Industrial Index in dollars and Euro, While we have had this sell-off and everyone was touting interest rates & trade, it was really about the upcoming elections where the polls project the House will go back to the Democrats. This will only ensure further economic stagnation for the Democrats will do everything in their power to undermine Trump just so they can win back the Presidency in 2020. This enbittered style of politics is just divisive and ensures that the economy will only get worse.

Nonetheless, the market bounced with the Directional Change as it should have. However, the capital flows have swung again. While they turned negative at the top fearing the US elections, the loss of Merkel's CDU and her stepping down as party leader is the prelude to Merkel going out the door. We could even see this develop as soon as December.

Now look at the Dow in Euro compared to dollars. When the dollar perspective looks like a crash, the Euro perspective should a minor correction and support. The question is not how crazy things get in the USA, but how out of the mind things become in Europe in the aftermath of Merkel. Just look at the two charts with a simple uptrend line from the same point, What a difference a currency makes.

WTF?! This makes no bloody sense. You're telling me that I need to start looking at different indices in varying foreign currencies to understand his BS? His stupid trading platform even was calling for a "Waterfall Event"and now it says "Brief Pause". What the hell does that mean?

Marty seriously needs to start using spellcheck.

Someone out there needs to make a counter blog where they post Marty's predictions with a screenshot of the blog post. Then when it doesn't come true, flame the heck out of him for his fake crap.

I think this is more of a longer term comment as he says, "we could even see this develop as a soon as December". I think what he is saying here is that there is not a complete meltdown but just a correction which does not mean there will be a new high tomorrow. The weekly array and the elected reversal still point to a low for this week and tomorrow is the ideal turning point. I don´t think he is trying to explain away position, he is trying to point out that there is no sign of a complete meltdown and that we are still in a staging or consolidation phase.

I do agree that he is not clear and i am always going back to re-read his comments to figure out what the hell he means.

See that's what drives me nuts. He is never straight forward with a simple: "The market will move to x price here."

It's always "If the dow closes at 25322 then we are electing the weekly bullish. If the dow exceeds 27432 then the bull market will extend into 2020. However if the dow closes below 21375 then we will be in a protracted beer market electing our reversals."

*Dow closes at 25304*

Marty says, "Ah yes, right on target with our arrays and the directional change which we elected. This means the dow will be slightly bullish heading into December blah blah blah".

I used to be a believer, but the more and more I look at it I'm starting to see the cracks in his process. He's the financial equivalent of the farmer's almanac. He'll never give you an exact outcome, but a range and then claim success.

When in reality, he's just really good at writing astrology level financial price movement predictions that are self actualizing.

The fact that people here are trying to decipher his messages for 233 odd pages is a good thing and it has helped me in coming to my own conclusions. He's a good trader, but I would take his writings more seriously if he stopped sniffing his own farts and would be honest about his incorrect calls (which he never is).

I have the same queries as you based on the time frame of the rallies in a bear market..hindsight will help us test our hypothesis...

I also asked Erwin about Socrates reversal numbers.. I asked are the reversals quoted the 'Major' ones or just the 'next in line' - and he confirmed the written Reversals on the Investor level are the 'next in line'.
Yes it makes it harder when you don't have all the Reversals to hand to see gaps etc, but once the Trader Level comes live, he confirmed that you will be able to subscribe to just one instrument if you wish (i.e. Gold Futures) and get the all the reversals and arrays for just that.  That would be cheaper than paying the much higher subscription rate that gives full access to everything.


And here's the other annoyance of mine: why hasn't he released the full trading version yet? He was hyping that thing hard claiming it will be ready in 2014 or 2015 by the end of Q4. Q4 came and went and the announcement of it being ready just magically disappeared. I work in software dev and the fact that it has taken him this long makes me wonder, is it really not ready or is he just using this as a cherry to encourage people to shell out several thousands of dollars for his WEC meet ups?
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November 05, 2018, 09:28:04 PM
 #4658

Just some points I found re using the ECM dates..

http://www.economicconfidencemodels.com


"..The primary mistake many make with the Economic Confidence Model (ECM) is assuming it should be a perfect model for the stock market, gold, or some other market. It is a global model and does not track any individual market. It is tracking the phenomenon of international capital flows. There is a shift back and forth between PUBLIC and PRIVATE investment trends.

Capital concentrates into a single region and then into a single market. There is a cycle to this as well from within a region such as the hot market will be real estate, bonds, stocks, commodities, and then back to real estate. What makes a bubble is this concentration of capital. However, every market retains its own cycle and it is when that cycle lines up with the ECM that we get the big booms and busts.

The key to understanding the ECM is this global capital concentration.

ts proper use of the ECM is to understand that it is NOT a model based upon a single market and it should not be attempted to force fit this model to any individual market. The key is to watch the individual market that is lining up with the ECM and that is where the most intense capital flow will be moving.

So it is by no means geared to a single market nor should it be presumed to be a perfect model for an individual market. Each market has its own cycle. These are what we show in the Forecast Arrays which are not based on the ECM. It is the correlation of the individual market cycles to the ECM that we discovery where capital will flow to next.

By no means try to use this for a individual market unless that market lines up with the ECM. As you can see, all the things that turn with the ECM over years is based upon capital concentration. It is inherent within the economic structure that we live..."

So in relation to the ECM date 2015.75...he's said before it ferments the peak in Government (https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/the-bond-bubble-confirmed/) "..This 2015.75 turn should be the start of BIG BANG and this should be market with the low in interest rates that ferments the peak in the bond bubble. Each 8.6 year wave produces a bubble, yet in a different sector. It is never the same thing twice...."  And he wrote this months before that actual ECM date. 
He didn't say that date would be a crash of some sort, just the 'start' of the Big Bang.  But sometimes the actual date does relate to a high/low in a particular market as in 87. 
Ever since 2015.75 interest rates have started to increase.  The worm has turned with the ECM date related to that market.
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November 05, 2018, 09:50:05 PM
 #4659

Sid, as I stated, the sample size for the number of trades was low. But at the same time, that doesn't mean it was luck. Only that it was not possible to derive a conclusion from said sample size. As stated, the trade would have been profitable had I used normal weekly instead of 0 day expiries.

TRC, as the other guy said, it's just a what if scenario. He comments on those, but he specifically said there is no indication of that. No Monthly Bearish Reversal has ever been elected so far in all this year's volatility.

Beast, as Armstrong says, just follow the numbers. You don't need ANYTHING else. If a Reversal is elected, it should test the next one. He adds commentary and such but that does not mean the commentary is a trade signal. When prices close above or below the point is he gives, that is the trade signal. I already mentioned, multiple times, how Armstrong clearly called this October crash near the end of September and the closes required to enter the trade. Reversals are black and white. There is no ambiguity involved. Arrays are different but you don't need them and Armstrong is hit or miss with those anyway. Follow the numbers and you make money. I really dont get what is so hard about that particular. Reversals can be measured objectively. I already posted the max P/L  structure of what would happen if one followed his call this October.
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November 05, 2018, 10:02:47 PM
Last edit: November 05, 2018, 10:32:53 PM by The Beast1
 #4660

Beast, as Armstrong says, just follow the numbers. You don't need ANYTHING else. If a Reversal is elected, it should test the next one. He adds commentary and such but that does not mean the commentary is a trade signal. When prices close above or below the point is he gives, that is the trade signal. I already mentioned, multiple times, how Armstrong clearly called this October crash near the end of September and the closes required to enter the trade. Reversals are black and white. There is no ambiguity involved. Arrays are different but you don't need them and Armstrong is hit or miss with those anyway. Follow the numbers and you make money. I really dont get what is so hard about that particular. Reversals can be measured objectively. I already posted the max P/L  structure of what would happen if one followed his call this October.

What post was this? The only blog post that I see where he called this was this one:


Quote
The Dow for Week of 09/24/18
By: Marty ArmstrongMonday, September 24, 2018



We did not OPEN above last week's high so we may move into a low next week to retest support. This is what we mean that the consolidation is not yet over. The Breakout Channel on the Weekly level stood at 26692.21 on the bottom and the market reached intraday 26769.16. It did close slight into the channel, but that was not yet enough to signal the breakout.






On the daily level, we are trading within the Breakout Channel but have not pushed through the top. This allows plenty of room to retest the bottom-side of the channel.

We have a Daily Bearish at 26067 and a closing below that will signal a retest of support. The first Weekly Bearish lies at 25877 so this is where key support begins. AT the end of this week we also have the month-end closing. The Monthly bearish do not begin until below 24000.

One of the curiosities of the market behavior relative to our Reversals has been how critical reversals once elected reverse direction and become critical support. We have stood by and watched the 1362 level in gold stand on a monthly closing basis and 1341 on a quarterly closing come hell or high water. Now the 25800 in the Dow may be critical in general as support. If we tend to retest that area yet hold into year-end, then we could be creating a platform for a Vertical Market. That is not yet confirmed. Just keep this in mind and observing the remainder of the year.\

For month end close this Friday, we see support moving into October forming at the 25500-25000 level. Closing resistance will stand 26620. A closing ABOVE that may signal a rally into November.

Keep in mind that while we have craziness going on in Washington with the Deep State Coup slowly becoming exposed, the insanity in Europe is not to be ignored. We also have the Democrats in the USA secretly advocating war against Russia behind the curtain as retribution for Hillary's emails. Keep in mind this is very much like being blamed for coming home early to catch a thief in your home and then he blames you for returning early.

Today, we have support at the 26315 level and we are trading at 26584 at the time of this post. A close below 26519 today will warn of a further decline tomorrow is possible. The key target in time this week  is split Wed/Thurs and this is followed by Monday Oct 1st with a Panic Cycle the next day.


Once again, the failure to open above last week's high signals a retest of support is likely.


All I see are three random outcomes with weasel words about what might happen. Not cold hard predictions.

Do you have access to his trader platform?

Just like the Farmer's Almanac, the last I checked, September and October are historically rocky times of the year for the stock market. Ironically, the "Stock Trader's Almanac claims that October months near a midterm were always seasonally rocky" https://www.marketwatch.com/story/should-investors-fear-october-a-historic-jinx-month-for-stocks-2018-09-26

I say let's do an experiment. You post the numbers for his next reversal prediction with clear instructions in plain English minus his crazy commentary and let's see if I make money. I don't want past P/L, I want a new play right now with real money as the stakes. I apologize that I am not smart enough. Please spoon feed me in the ways of this master because I really truly want to believe in his process!

Because if it is accurate, then there needs to be someone out there who can translate his ramblings into actionable advice. I'm getting sick of "following the numbers" when he's obscuring the numbers behind useless commentary.

Hopefully my disillusionment stems from my own inability to read between the lines of what he is saying. As it stands, he hides behind a lot of commentary and useless information which to me speaks volumes to me about the accuracy of what he is saying.

He should be letting the numbers speak on their own without padding each post with some useless political commentary. Yes I agree with it, no I don't want to read about it when analyzing the numbers!
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