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Author Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion  (Read 615842 times)
bikefront
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November 05, 2018, 10:30:21 PM
 #4661

Yeah, I was referring to the September 24th post. But also note the other one's week of 10/1 turning point call, which was the high. Again though, it's hit or miss.

Yeah I'll post the Reversal signals when they come. They don't happen often but only a few trades are needed anyway.

No, I don't have the trader version. I know of someone who claims to have the trader beta version from a WEC but I didn't see it.
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The Beast1
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November 05, 2018, 10:35:50 PM
 #4662

Yeah, I was referring to the September 24th post. But also note the other one's week of 10/1 turning point call, which was the high. Again though, it's hit or miss.

Yeah I'll post the Reversal signals when they come. They don't happen often but only a few trades are needed anyway.

No, I don't have the trader version. I know of someone who claims to have the trader beta version from a WEC but I didn't see it.


See, this is what annoys me. If it's not then why bother? I might as well trade on a roll of the dye or go back to using MACD lines and fibonacci traces.

But really, I'm happy to play with some cash to see if his system works and I really appreciate your help in deciphering this.
bikefront
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November 06, 2018, 12:53:37 AM
 #4663

I believe Armstrong mentioned that the arrays can be used in the 'running out of time' trades. So even if a Reversal is not elected, if the arrays show a high reading while also hitting a high on a Reversal, odds are that it can be the high. For example, Armstrong mentions one of his trades (I think it was the Yen) when there was a yearly? Reversal and the arrays showed a high. Electing it would have meant another huge run for a long time but that was incredibly unlikely. Therefore, he thought that was the top and shorted by narrowing in on the shorter timeframe.

I would not use real money right away, honestly. Perhaps paper trade first, see how things go. I'm not going to li, I lost money at first using Armstrong's stuff because I did not understand it. I personally make much more money using supply and demand based trading, which is actually very simple to learn, understand, and implement. I use Armstrong's general thesis to favor long or short trades depending on the general forecast for the time period. This way, even if Armstrong is wrong, I would likely have made those trades anyway, just on individual stocks that my system alerts me to, for short or long bias. I mentioned a while back somewhere on this thread that there was a trader on a different website forum who posted his live trades with proof of real money and he shorted near the January top based on Armstrong's call (which is where I found the user guide and found about about Armstrong).
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November 06, 2018, 02:11:16 AM
 #4664

Hey beast 1  if you want more precision forecasts then I highly recommend you look into harmonic patterns .  This entire decline was tipped off by a huge bearish crab pattern with a very precise stop level , short entry right at the high
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November 06, 2018, 04:08:12 AM
 #4665

Bikefront and Trc,

Thanks gents.

Really my frustration stems from people who take his political predictions way too seriously and cite his market predictions as evidence he knows what he's talking about. Once I started really looking at what he said, I've started to really doubt everything he says. The fact he was arrested makes me think the feds really did have him on a crime.

Regardless, back to my classic charting techniques.
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November 06, 2018, 03:23:20 PM
 #4666

There is the DAX Monthly Bearish Reversal trade, but I don't follow or trade it. It should crash due to its election however
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November 06, 2018, 07:31:00 PM
 #4667

Just some points I found re using the ECM dates..

http://www.economicconfidencemodels.com


"..The primary mistake many make with the Economic Confidence Model (ECM) is assuming it should be a perfect model for the stock market, gold, or some other market. It is a global model and does not track any individual market. It is tracking the phenomenon of international capital flows. There is a shift back and forth between PUBLIC and PRIVATE investment trends.

Capital concentrates into a single region and then into a single market. There is a cycle to this as well from within a region such as the hot market will be real estate, bonds, stocks, commodities, and then back to real estate. What makes a bubble is this concentration of capital. However, every market retains its own cycle and it is when that cycle lines up with the ECM that we get the big booms and busts.

The key to understanding the ECM is this global capital concentration.

ts proper use of the ECM is to understand that it is NOT a model based upon a single market and it should not be attempted to force fit this model to any individual market. The key is to watch the individual market that is lining up with the ECM and that is where the most intense capital flow will be moving.

So it is by no means geared to a single market nor should it be presumed to be a perfect model for an individual market. Each market has its own cycle. These are what we show in the Forecast Arrays which are not based on the ECM. It is the correlation of the individual market cycles to the ECM that we discovery where capital will flow to next.

By no means try to use this for a individual market unless that market lines up with the ECM. As you can see, all the things that turn with the ECM over years is based upon capital concentration. It is inherent within the economic structure that we live..."

So in relation to the ECM date 2015.75...he's said before it ferments the peak in Government (https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/the-bond-bubble-confirmed/) "..This 2015.75 turn should be the start of BIG BANG and this should be market with the low in interest rates that ferments the peak in the bond bubble. Each 8.6 year wave produces a bubble, yet in a different sector. It is never the same thing twice...."  And he wrote this months before that actual ECM date. 
He didn't say that date would be a crash of some sort, just the 'start' of the Big Bang.  But sometimes the actual date does relate to a high/low in a particular market as in 87. 
Ever since 2015.75 interest rates have started to increase.  The worm has turned with the ECM date related to that market.

You don't call something that you canNOT define.  What is the "start of the big bang"?  What is the peak of government confidence?  If I say that the confidence in Armstrong starts waning in 2015.75, that is just total BS!!  I can't even define or measure the confidence in Armstrong.  How can I even pinpoint the start?

So unless the government confidence is tied specifically to some financial instrument or a combination of some instruments, that statement alone is just baloney.  Did Armstrong EVER define the government confidence specifically?  No, because if he ever did that, the readers will most likely find out that his statement wasn't true.  So instead, it's far better to make the readers confused and hanging in there.

Just my opinions.  And you are free to think on your own.
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November 06, 2018, 07:49:49 PM
 #4668

MA, I did actually use a small account with real money to trade using purely Armstrong's predictions. I made a gain of 600% in 2 days before blowing up on a gap that went the wrong way on 0 day SPX options. Each trade was all in. It was excessively stupid, but an interesting experiment nonetheless. Of couse, it would be difficult to ascern validity with such a small amount of time and virtually no risk management. Had I used normal weekly options, I would have ended up with a gain. My own trading style is quite different, and I do not use the indexes.

So shall we claim success on the 600% in 2 days, or should we claim a failure on a blow-up after that?

My point here is that whether it's your performance or Armstrong's performance, it needs to be measured with a pre-defined criterion.

If we define gain as equal amount of trade entered on a daily basis, then based on that 3 day performance, that would average out to be (600%+0%) / 3 = 200%, not bad at all.

If we define gain as accumulative continual re-investment of the capital back into successive trade, then you would get -100% return at the end, which is not good at all.

Figuring out different hypothesis on Armstrong's writing to be tested will actually help one to sort out the best thing that one can glean from his confusing writing, and hone in the trading strategies.  It is certainly possible that there is something that can be fished out from Armstrong's trading experiences for real profits.  Unfortunately, I feel like it's far easier to look at MACD, RSI, Moving Average, and other technical indicators.  They are just black and white and well-defined.  I don't need to twist my brain around, and try to figure out that is the dip before the slingshot coming or not, or is this the dip, or ....
bikefront
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November 07, 2018, 12:00:17 AM
 #4669

Agreed. Honestly, should have sized it. Even though it was a for fun account, it grew so quickly. I wouldn't necessarily say it was typical though- Armstrong sent out so many posts in such a short time which isn't common at all. I was able to navigate treacherous waters fairly well in that time.

Ironically, I don't use indicators at all- just pure price action. Whatever works for the user I guess...I know some guys who consistently make large amounts from techniques I thought to be unusable.

I wonder how this DAX Bearish Reversal crash will turn out. The only trades I made that were profitable in that time were ones where he said 'if price closes at this, then decline will continue' etc. I noticed from older posts that it isn't 100% although they aren't necessarily Reversals- but they seem to have a high winrate. Problem is drawdown at times- I was down 50% at one point on the intraday crash call, and then shot to well over 200% gain. Crazy day.
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November 07, 2018, 01:33:20 AM
 #4670

Sid, as I stated, the sample size for the number of trades was low. But at the same time, that doesn't mean it was luck. Only that it was not possible to derive a conclusion from said sample size. As stated, the trade would have been profitable had I used normal weekly instead of 0 day expiries.

TRC, as the other guy said, it's just a what if scenario. He comments on those, but he specifically said there is no indication of that. No Monthly Bearish Reversal has ever been elected so far in all this year's volatility.

Beast, as Armstrong says, just follow the numbers. You don't need ANYTHING else. If a Reversal is elected, it should test the next one. He adds commentary and such but that does not mean the commentary is a trade signal. When prices close above or below the point is he gives, that is the trade signal. I already mentioned, multiple times, how Armstrong clearly called this October crash near the end of September and the closes required to enter the trade. Reversals are black and white. There is no ambiguity involved. Arrays are different but you don't need them and Armstrong is hit or miss with those anyway. Follow the numbers and you make money. I really dont get what is so hard about that particular. Reversals can be measured objectively. I already posted the max P/L  structure of what would happen if one followed his call this October.
can you refer me to the post on this backtest? how many points and over how long? Again the edge isnt usually following some system blindly.. its YOU and thr money management YOU employ.. that is the secret to success..
bikefront
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November 07, 2018, 03:26:58 AM
 #4671

I guess I disagree completely with Marty's reversal system and these endless numbers.   If you sit around and wait for the numbers to get hit often you will get whipsawed.  By the time the market reaches the numbers the trade is almost over.

Sept 24:
On the daily level, we are trading within the Breakout Channel but have not pushed through the top. This allows plenty of room to retest the bottom-side of the channel.
We have a Daily Bearish at 26067 and a closing below that will signal a retest of support. The first Weekly Bearish lies at 25877 so this is where key support begins. AT the end of this week we also have the month-end closing. The Monthly bearish do not begin until below 24000.
One of the curiosities of the market behavior relative to our Reversals has been how critical reversals once elected reverse direction and become critical support. We have stood by and watched the 1362 level in gold stand on a monthly closing basis and 1341 on a quarterly closing come hell or high water. Now the 25800 in the Dow may be critical in general as support. If we tend to retest that area yet hold into year-end, then we could be creating a platform for a Vertical Market. That is not yet confirmed. Just keep this in mind and observing the remainder of the year.\
For month end close this Friday, we see support moving into October forming at the 25500-25000 level. Closing resistance will stand 26620. A closing ABOVE that may signal a rally into November.
Keep in mind that while we have craziness going on in Washington with the Deep State Coup slowly becoming exposed, the insanity in Europe is not to be ignored. We also have the Democrats in the USA secretly advocating war against Russia behind the curtain as retribution for Hillary's emails. Keep in mind this is very much like being blamed for coming home early to catch a thief in your home and then he blames you for returning early.
Today, we have support at the 26315 level and we are trading at 26584 at the time of this post. A close below 26519 today will warn of a further decline tomorrow is possible. The key target in time this week  is split Wed/Thurs and this is followed by Monday Oct 1st with a Panic Cycle the next day.
Once again, the failure to open above last week's high signals a retest of support is likely.
---
Oct 10:
Well the target wee of 10/01 produced a high and and an outside reversal to the downside. The next target is now the week of 10/15-22. A weekly closing below 25753 will confirm it should be a sharp decline. For now, we see that the uptrend channel and the breakout channel converge at 26392-26408 and we are currently trading at 26155. By next week, the technical support will lie at 24929 and resistance at 26298.
We have a Directional Change due the week of the 22nd and then we should see the opposite trend into the week of the elections 11/05. Our next weekly Panic Cycle will appear the week of 11/26.
We have a Daily Bearish at 26349 and an important one at 26037. A daily closing below that will bring the Weekly Bearish Reversal into play. Beyond that, we have Daily Bearish under the market at 25805 and 25294.
the next two Daily targets in time will be 10/15 and 10/18.
So buckle up. As we head into these chaotic elections, the model is clearly showing that we should expect far more civil unrest and clearly the new Democratic strategy is in fact to encourage violence. The left is turning toward a far more violent profile. Civility is gone. This is by no means going to end very nicely. The new motto of the left - WARNING - WE MAY NOT PLAY NICELY WITH OTHERS.
---

There are others, BUT the earliest one would have shorted based on Armstrong's calls here based on purely Reversals election would be October 10 on Dow at the close on 25599. 25818 was the highest bounce point after the short, or -219 points, or -$1095 on Dow futures. 24122 is the lowest point thus far, or a max gain of 1477 points ($7385), per contract. I wouldn't say that most of the move would have been missed. Keep in mind that this is not counting the timing array.

Sid, it was this one. The timeline would have been 13 days. It was just for this single trade though.
bikefront
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November 07, 2018, 06:12:15 AM
 #4672

And, as an example of how I use the predictions in my own trading, an example: The arrays show 11/06 as a turning point on a daily basis. the weekly one shows a turning point this week as well. So this session might have been a generated high on a closing or intraday basis. Looking on the futures charts, this point is the same point as the bounce after the initial drop. COST hit one of my alerts as a supply area point and I managed to short it near the highs of the day, although it is being held overnight. Without the arrays, I might or might not have shorted, but with the arrays, I'm choosing to be net short in select vehicles at this particular time.
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November 07, 2018, 07:45:20 AM
 #4673

On Tuesday Socrates wrote this about the DAX

"Looking at the array, there is a potential for a further decline moving into 11/5 with the opposite trend thereafter into the week of November 19th."
Lines up with what we were discussing earlier about a 3 week rally back up to the bearish monthly reversal.

I have read these Socrates predictions a few times, some have been spot on while other the exact opposite happened, which is interesting. I haven´t traded them or monitored their success rate but I have saved the posts so I´l test win/success rate and post them here later today.

For Gold Socrates wrote that the two main targets to pay attention to are Mon. Nov. 19, 2018 and Mon. Dec. 3, 2018. Last week should have been a turning point which closed bearish, so according to this we should see a rally in to Nov. 19.

The turning points give by Socrates are not that useful on their own because they are constantly changing. For example, there will be a turning point predicted on week 5 then the week after its week 4 then it changes back to week 5 and then when we reach week 5 and you think its the turning point Socrates will post the that the next turning point is week 6!
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November 07, 2018, 12:37:41 PM
 #4674

Hmm. I haven't been checking Socrates much these days. The changing turning points doesn't seem very useful. I've been moving away from those and going for Reversals more frequently. Still a few hours till market open, but looks like a gap up against me Sad
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November 07, 2018, 01:29:40 PM
 #4675

Hmm. I haven't been checking Socrates much these days. The changing turning points doesn't seem very useful. I've been moving away from those and going for Reversals more frequently. Still a few hours till market open, but looks like a gap up against me Sad

I asked the Socrates team if the low was in for the Dow as Armstrong predicted and also complained about the unclearnes and ambiguity of his posts. This is what Erwin sent me.

hello

we did drop to 24122 close to the next set of reversals. Bouncing of the enxt set is ll what is expected by electing reversals or we continue taking the next ones out But time was up so the market turned. Dont trade of verbage or any comment. Watch teh numbers and Turning points .they are quit precise

So even he says just trades the numbers and ignores the comments!

Today should be a turning point and so is this week so we could still make a high today and then move lower again.

This is what Socrates posted on the DOW "Our projected resistance stands above the market at 2590679 and a closing above that is necessary to signal any strong further upside advance." The trend line for weekly from his Oct. 26 post points to resistance around the 26200 level.

I don´t know if the 25906 number is for a weekly or a daily close though, but if we reject it today, then the high will likely be in for the week since today is a turning point.





bikefront
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November 07, 2018, 02:06:42 PM
 #4676

I also see that the down hit the critical 25800 now. Today might mark the beginning of another decline.
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November 07, 2018, 02:25:05 PM
 #4677

Where did you get the 25800 from, I have it on my chart as elected bullish reversal from a while back and as a elected bearish daily.
bikefront
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November 07, 2018, 02:52:32 PM
Last edit: November 07, 2018, 03:09:13 PM by bikefront
 #4678

Armstrong mentioned it as a general important number, not specifically in this case.

I'm getting a lot of alerts on industrials hitting resistances, like CAT, DE, HD, etc. Went short XLI this morning, will see how it goes...

Man, wished I had shorted GT instead of COST. It had come up in the alerts yesterday too. Remember the basics: short downtrends, long uptrends. Even in volatility, it should give a solid edge.
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November 07, 2018, 04:05:19 PM
 #4679

Closed the COST short when it got back to entry level @237. Went long on it. Short QQQ at 174.
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November 07, 2018, 06:46:13 PM
 #4680

Closed at 240.50 for the gap fill. Done for the day
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