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Author Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion  (Read 615330 times)
MA_talk
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November 19, 2018, 07:08:04 PM
 #4721

Biggest failed calls of the year:

1)  When gold was $1050 and Martin Armstrong said it was going to "drop below $800 into the abyss", meaning he told everyone to sell the exact bottom in gold to the dollar.

2)  When bitcoin was $20,000 and Sidhujag said it was going to $100,000

Yes, I kind of remember that call from Armstrong.  He kept saying that "the fat lady has not sung yet"....

And because of his call, I sold almost all of my mining stocks into his call, and lost over $50K from that trade, before I realized that Armstrong is probably the best con-artist out there.
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bikefront
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November 19, 2018, 09:08:32 PM
 #4722

A huge 20% day. Gotta love volatility. Ironically, I only made money from longs- lost a good bit trying to catch a FB knife, made a small amount from CCL bounce. Then caught nearly the exact bottom on BMY and held through the whole thing. Ran out of settled cash unfortunately- I really wanted to buy TRHC at today's low. Incredibly obvious bounce point, massive rally from there.

Remember, ECM isn't a trading tool anyway so I'm honestly not bothered either way.
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November 20, 2018, 02:05:46 PM
 #4723

So much for the 1% rule on the DAX. 
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November 23, 2018, 02:24:09 AM
 #4724

Biggest failed calls of the year:

1)  When gold was $1050 and Martin Armstrong said it was going to "drop below $800 into the abyss", meaning he told everyone to sell the exact bottom in gold to the dollar.

2)  When bitcoin was $20,000 and Sidhujag said it was going to $100,000
it still is and actually the biggest fail of all time was when roach sold all his bitcoin at $600 for gold at $1400 and lost money. Im way way way up and not worried about short term moves to shake dumb money out the likes of you.
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November 25, 2018, 04:26:57 PM
 #4725

There's a difference between a shakeout and trend change. Armstrong says that the Reversals define the line. He's been right on BTC this year, as well as pretty much everything- but anyone can have a good year. Interesting to hear his recent thoughts on GS. I agree with him and my own technical analysis looks like GS will likely get into the 17X area by next month, if not this week. It is in a 'quick flow' area on the weekly chart.

As for the gold calls, I do not know everything he said because I was not following him then, but he said, I think this or last year, that because gold had not elected the 1000 Reversal, it still had room to fall yet, and why it was still open to sub-1000, and the 1363 point was not closed above on the Monthly timeline.

376, 313 are numbers to short and long REGN, respectively. It is far from either number, but setting alerts there should let one know of those setups once reached. 56.20 is the XLU short point and has a decent likelihood of rejection there. I have a tons of such alerts. Some trending stocks have alerts much closer to current price, as I simply want to buy a pullback or sell a bounce, which helps ensure a steady supply of high-quality trades in technical areas. By looking at how price reached that point, I choose to enter or not. For example, if price had a big gap up to that point, I might be cautious of a short squeeze or momentum breakout, and not take the trade. Or if there are lots of red days in a row, I might not take a long setup that I normally would have. (On this point, I realized that setting an alert so far away implies that to get to my price target, there must have been a change in trend- therefore I would be countertrend trading, which is dangerous, particularly for the premium buyer. So I do not do those anymore.) And so on.

I managed to buy 2 cents off the low on XLU on Friday, and it looks like a decent rejection of lows, implying continuation up for a day or so. 54.60 is around the exit target, although I can see it going higher. It is technically in an uptrend. Should have bought the 0-days instead of a week out. I tend to have more success with those, actually. Also bought 0 day calls on BMY. Took a 75% gain on those, and at one point they were over 200%, but I sold way before then. They ended up expiring worthless though. All trades will bring me regret. That's the mindset I bring each day.

Armstrong's trend theses is something I cannot replicate, and thus I keep using Socrates for those things. It helps to choose a break or continuation. For example, I'm bearish on gold, but not for this month. Thus, I made no short trades on it for now. But I do believe we can, and will, see gold under $1000 in our lifetimes. October's volatility call was nice too. Just incorporate bits and pieces here and there, but don't trade what you don't see. If he says something but you can't see it, best to avoid it or trade it in a related way that you can see. Eg if the Dow is supposed to drop, look for stocks you can see hitting resistance instead of just shorting the whole market.
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December 04, 2018, 03:38:50 AM
 #4726

Volatility models are ALL showing a rising trend in volatility on each analysis - internal, overnight, and closing.
The key weeks ahead will be the 3rd/10th and the 24th, which should ideally present opposite trend of each other.Here is the Daily array showing a possible turning point this week on the 6th with a Directional change on Friday. The main Daily Bullish stands at 26488. We do have two Minor Daily Bullish at 25652 and 25692. Election one indicates a move to the next.
Keep in mind that we have a Directional Change due in January and key turning points will be February and April. We also see rising volatility in January and May.
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December 04, 2018, 06:41:02 PM
 #4727

Volatility models are ALL showing a rising trend in volatility on each analysis - internal, overnight, and closing.
The key weeks ahead will be the 3rd/10th and the 24th, which should ideally present opposite trend of each other.Here is the Daily array showing a possible turning point this week on the 6th with a Directional change on Friday. The main Daily Bullish stands at 26488. We do have two Minor Daily Bullish at 25652 and 25692. Election one indicates a move to the next.
Keep in mind that we have a Directional Change due in January and key turning points will be February and April. We also see rising volatility in January and May.

Elected both 25652 and 25692 and straight away the dow collapses 2.3% lol!  Lets see if it turns around, since it elected the reversal we should see the next high within 2-3 days according to the reversals guide.
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December 04, 2018, 10:40:47 PM
 #4728

I don't know what the next daily reversal is, he only said what the 'main' one was which isn't necessarily the next one. I doubt that we get up there, but if the arrays are correct, the Thursday turning point is supposed to be a high, as this week generated a high. So it might mean the highest close for a day this week. Which does not seem likely. On the other hand, if we go lower, it could be referring to a low. Don't really know so I'm not trading this one, unless we make a highest close.
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December 05, 2018, 09:03:01 PM
 #4729

Can someone more familiar with Armstrong's stuffs explain this from his website to me?

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/the-princeton-models-and-methodologies-a-users-guide/how-to-use-the-forecasting-arrays/

Quote
The MOST IMPORTANT bar to pay attention to for TURNING POINTS will be the top bar labeled COMPOSITE. This where we have the sum of all models. You can be declining in price as the bars are rising. They do not reflect direction, but changes in trend. Looking at the above example, a decline into May would imply a May low with June then showing a change in that trend which may be a bounce. Likewise, if the market was rallying into May, then June would imply a decline. This is a change in trend we call Turning Points which can be intraday or on a closing basis.

Armstrong is only saying that the peak in his composite row can be either a high or low.  But either way, it will indicate a turning point.

But you CAN find out whether it should be a high or low by just looking at ANY forecast array that had some given history already.  Since he can continuously generate these arrays, at the beginning period of the array, where he had ALL past history up to the current point, he should be able to figure out whether going up is up/down, and going down is down/up, by simply generating the arrays for slightly over-lapped timeframe.

Why would ANYBODY generate some charts, and NOT correcting the polarity of the chart, when he can easily do that?Huh

My personal guess is that the forecast from the composite array has always been garbage, and he just picks out and show the ones that randomly happen to hit the mark, when in fact, no one is checking continuously for its accuracy for any time frame.  The "clarification" on low as high, and high as low, is to simply mask out any forecast failures of the arrays.

If the forecast from his composite row is correct, the easiest way to generate automatic immense profits is to simply buy volatility (buy both call & put) at the TURNING POINT.  I bet Armstrong himself is not doing that either for a good reason.

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December 07, 2018, 06:23:33 AM
 #4730

MA, the turning points do not define the range of the move; only Reversals can do that. If you've seen Elliot Wave chartists, they have AB waves and stuff. Up waves of a certain size and down of another. Similarly, even if a turning point is supposed to mean up, it might only be a minor move due to Reversals. It looks like today's turning point was a low. We have a new post today:

In the Dow, we have two Daily Bearish Reversals at 24445 and 24364 with a Minor Weekly Bearish at 24195. This is going to be choppy and we have two back-to-back Directional Changes for the next two weeks. Today was a Panic Cycle which is on point. A close below 24364 will signal a further decline. It will take a close above 25400 to move to the upside. The Weekly number will be 24195 to watch and a closing below that will signal a further decline into next week.
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December 07, 2018, 08:24:01 PM
 #4731

Bitcoin is approaching the critical , monthly number  (from Socrates)  that is on the table since Jan 18.
Will it bounce off that number or break through? I'm curious to see what is happening in the next 1-2 month.
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December 07, 2018, 09:31:40 PM
 #4732

Bitcoin is approaching the critical , monthly number  (from Socrates)  that is on the table since Jan 18.
Will it bounce off that number or break through? I'm curious to see what is happening in the next 1-2 month.

So MA provides no other info other than it is a critical support?




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bikefront
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December 08, 2018, 01:10:21 AM
 #4733

New one:

Of course gold has been trading off of interest rates regardless of how stupid that may be since lower interest rates reflection deflation. Nonetheless, as we can see, technically, gold held the former uptrend channel last year when it fell to 1146 and so far 2018 has just been an inside trading event. Just from a technical perspective, gold must exceed the previous year's high of 1362.40 and close above that to be impressive. At the very minimum gold would need to close above 1309 to show some strength. It just may be too early just yet for any real solid move. That still requires a crack in the monetary system to get people on board. A closing below 1267 will still leave the market vulnerable, although we see a turning point and Directional Change due in January 2019. Caution would be advisable with a January reaction high. The first Monthly Bullish is at the 1330 level. We did elect one Weekly Bullish which has given us the immediate bounce. However, we clearly need a weekly closing above 1267 to see a text of that Monthly level.
Of course, the prospect of a crack of the $1,000 has not been negated as long as we remain below 1362 on a monthly closing basis. That would create a HUGE bear trap and that may be what is needed for a slingshot to the upside into the next ECM target. end

Bitcoin elected the monthly bearish from before. Don't really follow it though
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December 08, 2018, 03:08:43 AM
 #4734

So MA provides no other info other than it is a critical support?

The computer provides a lot more info (turning points and other numbers) , but monthly critical support is a very important , long term buy or sell signal.
Actually I've checked again for monthly critical support and it has moved even much lower, in the 1000 area. A  monthly sell signal was generated recently.
The yearly number now comes into play at year end and lies below 3000. That will also be very relevant for the long term trend. It doesn't look good for Bitcoin looking at the foreseeable future.
bigtimespaghetti
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December 08, 2018, 03:12:36 PM
 #4735

So MA provides no other info other than it is a critical support?

The computer provides a lot more info (turning points and other numbers) , but monthly critical support is a very important , long term buy or sell signal.
Actually I've checked again for monthly critical support and it has moved even much lower, in the 1000 area. A  monthly sell signal was generated recently.
The yearly number now comes into play at year end and lies below 3000. That will also be very relevant for the long term trend. It doesn't look good for Bitcoin looking at the foreseeable future.


I agree, the btc price looks to move lower from here. I have a few targets and scenarios. We all need to be ready for different outcomes!




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ATMD
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December 08, 2018, 04:28:34 PM
 #4736

The business cycle and the future, by martin armstrong:
http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/2006/06/martin_armstron.html

Page is no longer working.

MA_talk
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December 11, 2018, 08:12:05 PM
 #4737

This page was archived many times.  Here is from 2015:

https://web.archive.org/web/20150201231727/http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/2006/06/martin_armstron.html

Please note that according to Armstrong HIMSELF, the ECM date was 10/7/2015, NOT 10/1/2015 as he later claimed after his release, and he most likely forgot his own dates.

Also, note that all the dates in that link are spaced out by exactly the same number of days (3140 days as I recalled).  They were not adjusted by any leap year.  And that was a DIFFERENT methodology.  He later said that he expressed dates in terms of fractional year (the link is in one of my older posts in this thread).  His "new" methodology is problematic, as I have disputed in this thread, because it will give you exactly the same dates in 5 cycles of 8.6 ECM.  His "old" methodology didn't have this problem using equal number of days, but has problem with leap years through centuries, which I attempted to adjust, and would have given 10/4/2015 instead.

Again, I'm pretty sure Armstrong is totally oblivious about these differences between 10/7/2015 vs 10/1/2015, because he doesn't care at all.

But of course, he continues to claim that his ECM model is accurate down to the very day, when in fact, he is contradicting himself all over the place.

That particular content at contrahour.com appears at more than one websites.  It was one of the more prominent content sought after Armstrong went into jail in 2000.  And at ALL websites that I've seen, the last ECM date was ALWAYS 10/7/2015.

But Armstrong himself said on his own website that it's 10/1/2015.

For obvious reasons, 10/1 is NOT 10/7.  Either the old Armstrong was wrong, or the new Armstrong was wrong.  Cannot be both right.  The problem with his new methodology is that it will ALWAYS be 10/1, after 5 cycles of ECM, because 8.6*5 = 43 years exactly, and using his new methodology, you will get 10/1 date again, and again, and again.

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December 19, 2018, 10:39:50 PM
 #4738

Only a few days left and the Dow is a good bit under the 2017 close, I wonder if it will close below and will just chop around for a few years as armstrong has mentioned. It has been very quite from his side lately, you would think that after these crazy few days and a new yearly low he would post something? Also, where is his trader system, it was going to be released during the WEC, we are now almost in 2019 and there hasen´t been un update in months.

Anyone have any info or are you all just as in the dark as I am?
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December 20, 2018, 03:17:41 PM
 #4739

The Daily Array point to Friday and the Weekly Array is still positioned for a turning point this week. We had back-to-back Directional Changed last week and this week. A panic Cycle comes into play next week and then the strongest target for a turning point comes the week of 12/31.

We still see this are going into a low for Jan/Feb. I have explained in more detail on the Blog about the Central Bank War where we have the Fed trying to normalize rates and the rest of the world screaming. The Dow is testing the Monthly Bearish Reversals as expected. We have penetrated the 23344 level which was the first minimum target. The next key level lies at 22415 and then the real critical numbers are 21600 and 19135.

So far the timing indicators are still suggesting a Jan/Feb low. This is still likely to be a Bear Trap provided the 21600 level holds. We will update tomorrow with more details
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December 20, 2018, 07:52:54 PM
 #4740

I'd like to know if any subscriber made money RECENTLY by subscribing to Armstrong's service.

You would "think" that given the big volatility in the stock market, there are more opportunities for bigger gain/loss.

Or is Armstrong continuing to "track" his forecast based on the current market, just like a moving average curve that always tracks, and always "seemingly" correct when you plot it out, but always TOO LATE for making any money?  When you look back, the hindsight (moving averages are dependent on the recent past values of the curves) is ALWAYS 20-20.
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