Martin Armstrong Discussion

[MA_talk]

Thanks. Martin is good at calling major high and lows .
His energy model and economic model can forecast events that lead to major change in the market
Direction and that is his value.
..... cut short ....

My interpretation (based on March 19 & 13 posts) as of now:

DOW is in the consolidation period but it needs to go down to create a bear trap for a slingshot move.
May - low, July - high, early 2020 - possible bear trap, then - up

Look at how Armstrong is shifting the goalpost from Feb panic month to March, then May, then July.

I "used to" agree that Martin is good at calling major high and lows.  But upon much closer examination, if you keep track of his daily/weekly/monthly calls, you will find that he actually achieve this calling POST-event.  His comments keeps shifting based on the market.  The market is always right obviously.  As long as his comments track CLOSE ENOUGH to how market shifts, given readers' short-term memory & confirmation bias, he can seemingly achieve that he "actually" called the peak & turns in the markets, when he in fact NEVER called it out AHEAD of time.

The golden proof to refute my argument above would have been that majority (much more than 50% obviously, or else you just flip a coin) if the subscribers profiting from his call on the market turning, by placing trades AHEAD of the time.

You know, a survey was done here, and that didn't show such.  In fact, given my own personal long records trading with Armstrong's calls, I simply know that Armstrong does NOT call the markets AHEAD of the time.

MOST of the time, what happens is that when his calls go wrong, and he does NOT admit it, but instead whis-wash through it, or blurs through it, or blog on something else for awhile to get your attention away, or he puts out all the reversal levels, and claims that markets showed strength or weakness, and so his model/computer is right, etc.

Well, F*&%, but my trade has already lost 15%+ after Armstrong made the wrong call (and of course, ALL of his calls are ambiguous, and so you cannot blame and pin him down either.)  Now that he is moving on to the "next phase" of market calls, but I'm STUCK with my trading loss.


Just tell me, if majority of the subscribers are making good money based on his calls, and I will agree that he is a great forecaster.

Think about it.  If Armstrong is doing a great job for his subscribers, why would this thread be 250+ pages long?
If Armstrong is doing a great job calling the markets for his subscribers, the ONLY comments that I should see on this thread is that

"Stupid, just pay the subscription money, and you will make 100X over the money that you paid into Socrates/Armstrong."

Instead, this thread is constantly about what exactly Armstrong said in his blog or private blog, because NO ONE understands with clarity what he is forecasting.

Yet, of course, everyone seemed to be bewildered and enamored by Armstrong's extensive knowledge, etc.  Again, I AGREE that Armstrong is an excellent economist and programmer.  But that does NOT equate automatically to accurate forecast.

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[luckyplate]

[Armstrong does not believe in time factor. His timing is off sometimes. Even some of the best market trader I know is not able to forecast the market correct ly at time . the reason is because there is much manipulation cause by Central banker . But the larger trend is always important to watch .to trade the market required more than Martin report.tgat is why those who can earn money by selling report always prefer to sell than doing the trade themselves  there is always the risk of losing .
Since the government have step in ,the market is no longer a free market .when have you heard of Central banker buying up toxi bonds ...then toxi shares and then buying up blue Chip to support the market 20 years ago ??


quote author=MA_talk link=topic=1082909.msg50270713#msg50270713 date=1553269912]

Thanks. Martin is good at calling major high and lows .
His energy model and economic model can forecast events that lead to major change in the market
Direction and that is his value.
..... cut short ....

My interpretation (based on March 19 & 13 posts) as of now:

DOW is in the consolidation period but it needs to go down to create a bear trap for a slingshot move.
May - low, July - high, early 2020 - possible bear trap, then - up

Look at how Armstrong is shifting the goalpost from Feb panic month to March, then May, then July.

I "used to" agree that Martin is good at calling major high and lows.  But upon much closer examination, if you keep track of his daily/weekly/monthly calls, you will find that he actually achieve this calling POST-event.  His comments keeps shifting based on the market.  The market is always right obviously.  As long as his comments track CLOSE ENOUGH to how market shifts, given readers' short-term memory & confirmation bias, he can seemingly achieve that he "actually" called the peak & turns in the markets, when he in fact NEVER called it out AHEAD of time.

The golden proof to refute my argument above would have been that majority (much more than 50% obviously, or else you just flip a coin) if the subscribers profiting from his call on the market turning, by placing trades AHEAD of the time.

You know, a survey was done here, and that didn't show such.  In fact, given my own personal long records trading with Armstrong's calls, I simply know that Armstrong does NOT call the markets AHEAD of the time.

MOST of the time, what happens is that when his calls go wrong, and he does NOT admit it, but instead whis-wash through it, or blurs through it, or blog on something else for awhile to get your attention away, or he puts out all the reversal levels, and claims that markets showed strength or weakness, and so his model/computer is right, etc.

Well, F*&%, but my trade has already lost 15%+ after Armstrong made the wrong call (and of course, ALL of his calls are ambiguous, and so you cannot blame and pin him down either.)  Now that he is moving on to the "next phase" of market calls, but I'm STUCK with my trading loss.


Just tell me, if majority of the subscribers are making good money based on his calls, and I will agree that he is a great forecaster.

Think about it.  If Armstrong is doing a great job for his subscribers, why would this thread be 250+ pages long?
If Armstrong is doing a great job calling the markets for his subscribers, the ONLY comments that I should see on this thread is that

"Stupid, just pay the subscription money, and you will make 100X over the money that you paid into Socrates/Armstrong."

Instead, this thread is constantly about what exactly Armstrong said in his blog or private blog, because NO ONE understands with clarity what he is forecasting.

Yet, of course, everyone seemed to be bewildered and enamored by Armstrong's extensive knowledge, etc.  Again, I AGREE that Armstrong is an excellent economist and programmer.  But that does NOT equate automatically to accurate forecast.


[/quote]

[trc4949]

Marty seems to be making contradictory comments ( in his blog posts )

He is now saying that we are going to have a very hard landing going into 2020.   But then also says the USA market is basically going to just meander sideways ?  He says it does not APPEAR to the be the case that the USA will crash down 40 to 50% correction.

How can we have a very hard recessionary landing into 2020 without a major stock correction ?

[luckyplate]

Hard landing is true .but the us market is holding up the rest of the world .he does give you a good idea that as long as dow holds the 21600 support level. Then a crash is still avoidable .but if this level is broken then expect the 17000 to be retested . In order for this to happen the market have to shift to fear factor of large scale .

Marty seems to be making contradictory comments ( in his blog posts )

He is now saying that we are going to have a very hard landing going into 2020.   But then also says the USA market is basically going to just meander sideways ?  He says it does not APPEAR to the be the case that the USA will crash down 40 to 50% correction.

How can we have a very hard recessionary landing into 2020 without a major stock correction ?

[trc4949]

Hey guys I figured out what the trade of the century is... see this chart...  we will swing down in sp500 to 1880 and then zoom back up to all time highs.

If we get to 1880 or the bottom of wedge pattern NO ONE will want to buy that low, but that will be the buy.

[luckyplate]

For spx to reach that level the dow Jones would be around 16500. To break the level the 21000 line must be broken on a monthly .

Hey guys I figured out what the trade of the century is... see this chart...  we will swing down in sp500 to 1880 and then zoom back up to all time highs.

If we get to 1880 or the bottom of wedge pattern NO ONE will want to buy that low, but that will be the buy.

https://farm8.staticflickr.com/7885/47459583321_8c9d082b49_k.jpg

[MA_talk]

Well, hopefully someone generous on this forum will post the Private Blogs. They DID have some specific numbers and analysis of the arrays which, when I had access, were helpful in conjunction with my OWN system (Bike would agree).

Funny how he's giving Socrates credit for the Biogen drop - but he did clarify that the GMW is to be used with reversals and arrays and whatever else you're doing to give you more conviction with your trade. Maybe we expect too much from Socrates - there will NEVER be a perfectly working computer that says "buy here sell here". If his system is a good TOOL then he should market it as such. It surely isn't the end all be all and from what I've heard/seen it isn't some magical perfect system...which brings into question his claim that he went to jail because "the government wanted the source code".

He may seem like a sleazy salesman from NJ, but he apparently has influence around the world, not everywhere but in some places, and I do believe he is extremely gifted in economics, history, and law. Just not 100% buying that Socrates is predicting the world and it's worth $150/mo for vague analysis and shifting goalposts.

Anyway, since we don't have the private blogs, I'm curious what you guys think is going on in the market. I was doing chart studies today and see a double bottom basically everywhere about the end of Oct and the beginning of Jan. Now we're reaching serious breakout levels. I'm wondering if hard BREXIT will actually happen and the melt-up is the foreign money buying shares. Today, Apple went up nearly 4%. SOXL is about to retest ATHs. Foreigners buying US stocks, I'd assume, would go after the big names and the big tech companies first.

Should we be buying tech/semis and ride this wave? Is this what the Private Blog was about? Maybe foreigners are pouring into the US in anticipation of the May elections and the bleak outlook for the EU? Or, conversely, are we being faked out by the surge we've seen lately?

Look forward to your insights and please keep this board alive. For the love of God can someone PLEASE give us the Private posts?

I just saw Armstrong's post on biogen today.  Look closely at the reader's words :
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/training-tools/how-can-socrates-forecast-the-biogen-crash-today/

"high close sharp drop coming"

First of all, I'm almost certain that it's not straight from GMW.  I have NEVER seen such coined words ("sharp drop coming") from GMW.  Then, WHY didn't the reader use the "coined" words from GMW, such as "temp high", etc.  I have read many many forecasts from GMW, and the forecasts will continue to change until the given time period is closed.  So before the market has a daily/weekly/monthly close, the "forecast" for that given period from GMW is essentially useless, because it requires a closing price.

Now, if you look at how this reader is so adept in combining different tools from Armstrong, he is either Armstrong himself, or someone who really knows how to use Armstrong's tools.

Nevertheless, IF the combination of Armstrong's tools can generate profitable forecasts, AND Armstrong is NOT combining them to generate buy/sell signals, then that still only means one thing: it does NOT work consistently to generate profits over time.

Imagine with his software programming skills, he should have already combined all these different tools and generate all the flash sell/buy signals, and simply sell that constant stream of information to any hedge funds for huge profits.

But he is NOT doing that.

With his "reputation" and his programming skills, Armstrong should have been a billionaire many times over long time ago (via leveraged bets), and Forbes would have listed him as one of the richest person.

Oh, I can tell you why Armstrong is not doing that.  Because he is doing a "public service", and he is very "charitable", and he doesn't want to take lots of money from subscribers, but ather making them huge profits.  Is that correct that all of you are earning lots of profits from your trades, without resorting to your own personal "better" systems?

[infofront]

Marty seems to be making contradictory comments ( in his blog posts )

He is now saying that we are going to have a very hard landing going into 2020.   But then also says the USA market is basically going to just meander sideways ?  He says it does not APPEAR to the be the case that the USA will crash down 40 to 50% correction.

How can we have a very hard recessionary landing into 2020 without a major stock correction ?

The hard recessionary landing is supposed to pummel sovereign bonds.
Remember, 2008 was the crash in confidence in private institutions. The next one is supposed to destroy confidence in public institutions.

[luckyplate]

Y need to have a stock corrections too .

Not just a crack in the public bonds.

Marty seems to be making contradictory comments ( in his blog posts )

He is now saying that we are going to have a very hard landing going into 2020.   But then also says the USA market is basically going to just meander sideways ?  He says it does not APPEAR to the be the case that the USA will crash down 40 to 50% correction.

How can we have a very hard recessionary landing into 2020 without a major stock correction ?

The hard recessionary landing is supposed to pummel sovereign bonds.
Remember, 2008 was the crash in confidence in private institutions. The next one is supposed to destroy confidence in public institutions.

[Taro7853]

Hi, I am a subscriber of Socrates pro level. I am here to warn any of you who are going to use his product so that you don't have to suffer the same fate as me. I have subscribed his Socrates for four months and it has been a disaster. Let me explain why.
1. I tried to contact his team as the system charge me twice!!!. No response!!! I think his support team is the worst ever.  I sent them many emails asking questions, try to get my money back, etc but no response.
2. Socrates does not provide a clear buy or sell signal. The manual that they provide does not give me a clue. It does not explain everything. Many of the points and tools are miss out. The manual gives you advice that you should look for everything to align (global market watch, Socrates analysis, forecasting array, reversal etc). I have been using this system for four months now and it never happens.
3. Socrates does not combine everything into a simple buy or sell signal. Instead, you will see the analysis give conflict explanation about the market.
4. Many of you who have been following him on his blog will always see his writing about "Reversal". I have seen many of them "daily reversal", "weekly reversal", "monthly reversal" generate the wrong signal many many times!!! Do not rely on the reversals alone!!!
5. For those who are curious about his private blog that you have to pay about 150 dollars a month to see it. I can tell you that he rarely post about buying or selling. He is not always right. I have seen many of his prediction went wrong and I think that has caused many losses for his subscribers.

If you have any question please feel free to ask.

[trc4949]

Marty's latest free blog post.  He is sticking his neck out here calling for Major Panic



The distortion in the yield curve is building with tremendous force. There are vast bids for US 90-day T-Bills from around the world and no offers. The shortage in US government paper is now being reported to us from repo desks around the world. There is a MAJOR PANIC in to the dollar as emerging markets come under a financial crisis, in part, instigated by Turkey. The government simply trapped investors and refuses to allow transactions out of the Turkish lira. Turkey’s stand-off with investors has unnerved traders globally, pushing the world ever closer to a major FINANCIAL PANIC come this May 2019.

There is a major liquidity crisis brewing that could pop in May 2019. European Banks have loaded their portfolios with real estate loans thanks to quantitative easing and negative interest rates, and emerging market debt. Spanish banks are especially invested in Turkish debt where they hoped to get the highest yields expecting that the IMF would never let Turkey default. On top of this, banks have been lending to each other to also avoid parking money at the European Central Bank where they would be charged with a negative interest rate.

Currencies from South Africa’s rand to Brazil’s real are witnessing a spike in their expected volatility, signaling concern they may weaken the most along with the Turkish lira going into May. The price swings have evoked sudden deep-rooted fears that there may be an emerging market crash before the end of the year.

We will update on the private blog in more detail. However, keep in mind that this Inverted Yield Curve is by no means reflecting a US recession. This is a global financial panic unfolding on a grand scale. This is why we selected May for the WEC in Rome. This is far more than just politics. This is beginning to evolve into a serious liquidity crisis where we may yet see more countries try capital controls to save the day.

[STT]

There is a danger of shorting the peak around 2023 period. The market might not be there when it collapse .

Thats the danger overall I think but everyday the danger of shorting is you sell the stock and go long the currency when they are actively undermining currency and paying all bills with new money.   So finding a way to short, that doesnt rely on government as your ultimate backstop to value is probably part of the problem.
The only way to short is find to something better to go long and dollar really isnt that, I think thats the long game that markets find this out.   The effect should be increasing or a positive feedback loop type of effect at some point which is where we know its the end game.   I presume it has to happen but so far the nonsense in BOJ shows it can go on for decades till pensions expire I guess, the ultimate holders from previous economic growth

[Alex-11]

Socrates support

This is a early release of the Pro version and I suppose they have many issues to solve. I also suppose they don't have a big support team and I guess you have to be PPP (polite, precise and patient). Then you have a chance for a response. I understand that not everybody (including myself) will like this kind of support , but this is the way it currently is.

2. Socrates does not provide a clear buy or sell signal.

Reversals are buy or sell signals. Major reversals are clear buy and sell signals, but it's badly explained (or not at all) how use them without the arrays.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/qa/filtering-the-reversals-what-level-to-use/

Problem i see with the Pro version is the vast amount of information. you can easily get lost in  trying to figure out too many things at the same time instead of focusing on the important parts (or even trying to find out what is important at all).

Another big thing is to try to get immediate profits by trading with real money. A big mistake with Socrates, IMO

[trc4949]

Armstrong just made up a comment and complimented himself !  Notice the spelling error of the word 'ready'



COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong; It is clear that your computer is really amazing. I was just ready how the Greenland Glacier is expanding, not melting. What you have accomplished by seeking to eliminate yourself is really a major contribution to society.

Job well done, sir.

PH

[footlong24seven]

Armstrong may be onto something when it comes to the rates in his recent post. While the US may have a dip, our GDP will be positive while the rest of the world turns down.

If we do indeed have a liquidity crisis in short term paper then the writing really is on the wall - the rush is into US paper.

Looks like a classic slingshot move to me. This is the final rush into US bonds while the world economy goes back into recession without ever getting out of the last one. Just like a slingshot everyone will be short rates and then get pwnd when rates surge.

Can the guy who was disappointed with Socrates saying it was a waste of money above PLEASE post the last 30 days or so of Private Blog posts for us plebs?

[luckyplate]

Can I know how to you interpret his private  post about US market recently that cause you to lost money ??

Hi, I am a subscriber of Socrates pro level. I am here to warn any of you who are going to use his product so that you don't have to suffer the same fate as me. I have subscribed his Socrates for four months and it has been a disaster. Let me explain why.
1. I tried to contact his team as the system charge me twice!!!. No response!!! I think his support team is the worst ever.  I sent them many emails asking questions, try to get my money back, etc but no response.
2. Socrates does not provide a clear buy or sell signal. The manual that they provide does not give me a clue. It does not explain everything. Many of the points and tools are miss out. The manual gives you advice that you should look for everything to align (global market watch, Socrates analysis, forecasting array, reversal etc). I have been using this system for four months now and it never happens.
3. Socrates does not combine everything into a simple buy or sell signal. Instead, you will see the analysis give conflict explanation about the market.
4. Many of you who have been following him on his blog will always see his writing about "Reversal". I have seen many of them "daily reversal", "weekly reversal", "monthly reversal" generate the wrong signal many many times!!! Do not rely on the reversals alone!!!
5. For those who are curious about his private blog that you have to pay about 150 dollars a month to see it. I can tell you that he rarely post about buying or selling. He is not always right. I have seen many of his prediction went wrong and I think that has caused many losses for his subscribers.

If you have any question please feel free to ask.

[MA_talk]

Armstrong just made up a comment and complimented himself !  Notice the spelling error of the word 'ready'



COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong; It is clear that your computer is really amazing. I was just ready how the Greenland Glacier is expanding, not melting. What you have accomplished by seeking to eliminate yourself is really a major contribution to society.

Job well done, sir.

PH

Sorry, what's the typo?  What should "ready" be?  His sentence didn't make too much sense to me.

Oh, "major contribution to society", while stealing the hard work by real scientists.

[MA_talk]

Hi, I am a subscriber of Socrates pro level. I am here to warn any of you who are going to use his product so that you don't have to suffer the same fate as me. I have subscribed his Socrates for four months and it has been a disaster. Let me explain why.
1. I tried to contact his team as the system charge me twice!!!. No response!!! I think his support team is the worst ever.  I sent them many emails asking questions, try to get my money back, etc but no response.
2. Socrates does not provide a clear buy or sell signal. The manual that they provide does not give me a clue. It does not explain everything. Many of the points and tools are miss out. The manual gives you advice that you should look for everything to align (global market watch, Socrates analysis, forecasting array, reversal etc). I have been using this system for four months now and it never happens.
3. Socrates does not combine everything into a simple buy or sell signal. Instead, you will see the analysis give conflict explanation about the market.
4. Many of you who have been following him on his blog will always see his writing about "Reversal". I have seen many of them "daily reversal", "weekly reversal", "monthly reversal" generate the wrong signal many many times!!! Do not rely on the reversals alone!!!
5. For those who are curious about his private blog that you have to pay about 150 dollars a month to see it. I can tell you that he rarely post about buying or selling. He is not always right. I have seen many of his prediction went wrong and I think that has caused many losses for his subscribers.

If you have any question please feel free to ask.

Really appreciate the comments from a real subscriber.  As I said, if Armstrong's subscription is of ANY true value, it should have never ever taken 252 pages on this forum to decide, and discuss exactly what Armstrong meant in all of his cryptic/ambiguous posts.

And the only comments that I should have seen from subscribers should be simply calling me a stupid person who doesn't subscribe anything and missed out all the profits.

Notice that Armstrong just said that in May there "MAY" be FINANCIAL PANIC (again for the Nth time).

So the keywords here is that he SAID "may".  So it is NOT for sure, and so if he is wrong, he is clear of it, but if he is right, he will come out to be a hero.

And then another keyword here is PANIC (again).  PANIC is simply to get your attention, and get more subscribers to subscribe to his private blogs.

So he will repeat this, just like the BIG BANG for the last ECM date in 2015.75.  It was SUPPOSEDLY to the crashing for all euro/municipal bonds at the minimum.  But then he morphed it into the "start" of the "crashing".  That is just so LAME.

Noticed that he also covered himself on both sides going into 2020, which currently is a cycle inversion, but also an economic recession.  So stocks "probably" would go higher based on his take on both sides.  But how about CALL a target?  No, he will never do that, because he will be pinned down for errors.

[MA_talk]

Armstrong just made up a comment and complimented himself !  Notice the spelling error of the word 'ready'



COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong; It is clear that your computer is really amazing. I was just ready how the Greenland Glacier is expanding, not melting. What you have accomplished by seeking to eliminate yourself is really a major contribution to society.

Job well done, sir.

PH

Sorry, what's the typo?  What should "ready" be?  His sentence didn't make too much sense to me.

Oh, "major contribution to society", while stealing the hard work by real scientists.

Should it have been "I just read" instead of "I was just ready"?

I simply cannot make out what that particular "reader" wanted to say originally.

Regardless, typo always only makes perfect sense for the person who is typing.  We all know Armstrong is a prolific typo person, and the fact that he is in quite many good companies with "his readers' comments" most likely indicates that all comments were made up by Armstrong himself.  Once you accept the numerous evidences that I have provided here, then the next logical question is WHY does he do that, when he has ABSOLUTELY NO NEED (suppsedly) to do that.

[trc4949]

I think 'ready' was supposed to be 'reading'.   I was just reading...

Who knows if he made this comment up just to praise himself.  But that is pretty pathetic if you ask me.  Kind of like those made up positive reviews on amazon.com

Armstrong just made up a comment and complimented himself !  Notice the spelling error of the word 'ready'



COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong; It is clear that your computer is really amazing. I was just ready how the Greenland Glacier is expanding, not melting. What you have accomplished by seeking to eliminate yourself is really a major contribution to society.

Job well done, sir.

PH

Sorry, what's the typo?  What should "ready" be?  His sentence didn't make too much sense to me.

Oh, "major contribution to society", while stealing the hard work by real scientists.