Bundesliga has ended and Bayern, once again, win the title. Well in case you forget or maybe didnt pay attention to my prediction about the top scorer few weeks ago, I bring it here;
[quote author=jayce link=topic=1159912.msg54505845#msg54505845 date=1590510954]
[quote author=Darkoth89 link=topic=1159912.msg54504548#msg54504548 date=1590498733]
TL:DR: Tried to explain why I thought Werner could become top goalscorer this season.
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Nice prediction you have, and it looks fair enough. But from what I have seen in last two seasons of Bundesliga, Lewandowski is more consistent than Werner if it's about scoring.
The amount of goal Lewa scores in the first half-season of 18/19 was 10 goals and the second half was 12, while Werner scored 11 in the first half and only 5 in second half of season. In the season of 17/18, Lewa scored 15 goals in the first half-season and 14 goals in the second one, which Werner scored 9 goals in the first half and only 5 in the second half of season.
From these data in last two seasons, the amount of goal Werner able to score in the second half-season is 45-55% of the total goals he scored in the first half of season. In otherwise, the percentage Lewa has is almost 100%. It means Lewa able to score in second half-season as many as goal he has in the first half. So based on this calculation, since in the first half of current season Lewa scored 19 goals, he would likely add at least 15 goals in the end of season, so probably will be [size=14pt]
34 goals[/size] in total. In the other side, with 45-55% percentage for Werner, he has scored 18 goals already in the first half-season, so he might be able to score only 9 goals, which the total goal he would has in the end of season is [size=14pt]
27 goals[/size].
Since the first match of second half-season, Lewa has already scored 8 goals and Werner 6 goals. With my prediction, Lewa would be able to score another 7 goals in the remaining matches of this season, and for Werner, he might add just 3 goals.
So my conclusion is, the chance for Lewandowski to be a top scorer this season is much higher than Werner. Please don't take it as a main reference, it's just my prediction based on the goal statistic they have in the last two seasons.
EDIT:
The crowd noise in Dortmund vs Munchen game is kinda weird in that empty stadium but not a bad idea lol. It makes the game bit more exciting than last gameweek
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The top scorers of Bundesliga
So, that's why statistic is
very important to predict the future. I know my prediction on Werner isn't accurate, mine was one goal less. But the point is, don't underestimate the power of data and statistic.
By departure of Werner to Stamford Bridge, hope he could score more goals there. And for Bundesliga itself, it's time to Haaland to shine and take the top scorer position in next season.