Swedish ASIC miner company kncminer.com

[btc_uzr]

I was just taking a look to this prediction for a Jupiter:

http://btcinvest.net/en/bitcoin-mining-profit-calculator.php?diff=148623691.94537259&dcosts=7500&diff_mincrease=35&blpbtc=25&dhsmhs=500000&diff_mincreasedecrease=3&btcusd=128.53&dpowcon=650&btcusd_mincrease=0&pcost=0.25&calcweeks=20&dleadtime=1&action=calc#

HashFast, they ship towards the end of October. If KnC is a few weeks l
(...)
Do you really think that there are still chances for ROI? Any suggestions?

Set the "lower difficulty increase / jump" to more realistic 4% or even 5%.

Please consider the massive spike in hashing power when KnC starts shipping.
This results in blocks passing by rapidly, causing a diff increase earlier than we're used to have it.

We might reach 3,5+ PH/s during October ~> 500M diff before end of October.
So it might happen that we jump from 200M to over 400M in one step => +100% increase.

Hashfast is confident to ship October 20th-30th, would be the next spike
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=262052.msg3219978#msg3219978

November and December look even more scary..
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=283820.0

[itod]

Hashfast site still says "We taped out yesterday"

Maybe we are not looking at the same site, it was almost a month ago:
https://hashfast.com/blog/

[btc_uzr]

Why is hashfast able to provide the order chain and KnC is not willing to do so?
https://hashfast.com/order-chain/

[soy]

Can't go wrong with a reliable Casio

I had that exact watch when i was in grade 4!!!

I liked it when I started running back in the late-'80's as it has a 10 minute beep on the timer.  Ten minutes out and 10 back before breakfast then off to work.

[vesperwillow]

Yeah, and Cointerra's 2TH boxes. Many, many, many orders. In talking to them, order queue in the 4 digit range for Dec/Jan.

[Bitcoinorama]

That said we only KnC's package size, not die size. Large package size, does not necessarily correlate to a large die size.

Ill grant you that, but I havent heard anyone refute hashfast's argument that the minimum estimate of KnC's die size based on the package/underfull dimensions would be on the order of 900mm³. Thats not just a little bit bigger, thats an epic size.
...

I'm sure most here don't care if KNC chips are, indeed, full-custom or standard cell -- as long as the performance is within spec.  I know there are some 28nm fetishists around, who think 28nm node = god, but hopefully Bitfury 55nm chips castrated their nanolust.

It's not the 28nm fetish-ing, it's just plain blindness when somebody claim that it is unimportant that your 28nm chip burns 60% more electricity per GH (unmeasured worst case prediction)than your 55nm competitor (measured) and 100% more than the rest of the 28nm camp (expected) (the only thing that is expected is that simulated best case results have never equalled the reality of Bitcoin mining ASICS, have they? So better to be responsible, and err upon the side of caution, as engineering over marketing dictates). Only thing left is to jump to conclusion that everyone else is lying and to ask for Bitfury miner screenshots in disbelief (if that's a dig at me, get your fact's straight. I never once claimed any disbelief, just requested video as the products are in the wild for a baseline comparison of w/Gh/s as people are so keen to draw comparisons once KnC's data is to hand. Again go and check who posted congrats to Punin about three posts after he announced the Bitfury boards were populated and complete; https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=250249.msg2911187#msg2911187 ). Yeah, it will surely be unimportant in march next year when every watt will be counted if your miner is plugged from the wall or not   (Perhaps, by that point you could always underclock kit, or move on to next gen - nothing lasts forever, especially at the rate at which Bitcoin mining tech is racing towards the smallest feasible die shrink, if the BTC price justifies a worthwhile investment)

If the point of all that red ink you spilled across my post is to make it unreadable - you made it, congratulations. But that does not make your points relevant if you put them in red for some reason, you just look silly since there is not a single argument in these red letters.

I don't want to get into shouting competition with you, I've just wanted to point to an argument. But it's your way to mask the arguments with all kind of noise, be it a wall of text or red letters or something else.

No argument wanted here. All my points added are reasonable rebuttals based upon observation of your assumptions. The red admittedly appears fierce, but that's not how it's intended. i just couldn't be bothered rearranging text, and if I left it black it wouldn't be visable. I'll change it to blue. Also I don't believe in anyway shape of form Hashfast are delivering by the end of October, again ignore their marketing, and read their terms and conditions. Paints a completely different story, remember they have removed ALL accountability and liability along with the ability to refund. KnC, and Cointerra have not.

[efodix]

I think it's almost certain that we'll be seeing a difficulty of at least 500 million in a month or two.

BFL is currently somewhere around half way through clearing their preorder backlog, which means they'll add up somewhere around 100M to the current difficulty plus another 100M from updated devices which are not formally considered preorders. Should KnC ship an equal amount of units, and it may as well end up being more, we're already at 500.

Add to that all other companies, and we'll be closer to a billion. Also, don't forget about BFL monarch and the fact that a majority of preorders likely transferred their orders to a new device. Early next year, we're probably close to 2 billion.

I'm guessing that will be the point where the rush will end and panic will ensue. The difficulty will most likely be a sigmoid function, and right now we're less than half way through. Depending on the preorders, the end result might be a marginally positive or even a negative income when you add up electricity costs. You can pretty much forget about making a positive ROI unless you get your units in the next couple of days.

Just to make clear, I'm a BFL customer (unfortunately), and it is obvious fact that I have a vested interest in discouraging other people from mining. However, since a large portion of the preorders are non-refundable, even if I somehow manage to sway those who can get their money back, we're still all screwed.

[Bitcoinorama]

I think it's almost certain that we'll be seeing a difficulty of at least 500 million in a month or two.

BFL is currently somewhere around half way through clearing their preorder backlog, which means they'll add up somewhere around 100M to the current difficulty plus another 100M from updated devices which are not formally considered preorders. Should KnC ship an equal amount of units, and it may as well end up being more, we're already at 500.

Add to that all other companies, and we'll be closer to a billion. Also, don't forget about BFL monarch and the fact that a majority of preorders likely transferred their orders to a new device. Early next year, we're probably close to 2 billion.

I'm guessing that will be the point where the rush will end and panic will ensue. The difficulty will most likely be a sigmoid function, and right now we're less than half way through. Depending on the preorders, the end result might be a marginally positive or even a negative income when you add up electricity costs. You can pretty much forget about making a positive ROI unless you get your units in the next couple of days.

Just to make clear, I'm a BFL customer (unfortunately), and it is obvious fact that I have a vested interest in discouraging other people from mining. However, since a large portion of the preorders are non-refundable, even if I somehow manage to sway those who can get their money back, we're still all screwed.

It's pointless dude, someone else will always buy it. The Genesis Block has been trying to falsely dissuade people from mining for ages, but it is inevitable that whilst a profit margin exists, there is enough money to pour in as long as it beats banking interest rates. At some point that will balance out, then like GPU mining it's an investment into the believe gov acceptance and regulation tied with innovation in accessibility, products, services, and mainstream adoption will continue the BTC price rise as it becomes a more concrete, secure and useful currency and means of instantaneous wealth transfer. If you want to make big money then be prepared to work hard, sweat and innovate. The belief that people really thought they had locked up this mining game and it's reward all for themselves and no one else would notice is moronic. Flog the unit on eBay if you don't believe in Bitcoin, enough people will pay a premium, they always do. The new iPhone with finger print recognition shared from Apple with love to the NSA has been reaching $10k! And that's just for people that cannot wait two weeks for it to be in stock in your standard retain phone outlet. What possible return to you get from that?! It does nothing special, it makes calls and shares your personal info with security agencies, aside from that you're paying 1000% for a few keen glances two weeks before everyone has one??

[tarmi]

I think it's almost certain that we'll be seeing a difficulty of at least 500 million in a month or two.

BFL is currently somewhere around half way through clearing their preorder backlog, which means they'll add up somewhere around 100M to the current difficulty plus another 100M from updated devices which are not formally considered preorders. Should KnC ship an equal amount of units, and it may as well end up being more, we're already at 500.

Add to that all other companies, and we'll be closer to a billion. Also, don't forget about BFL monarch and the fact that a majority of preorders likely transferred their orders to a new device. Early next year, we're probably close to 2 billion.

I'm guessing that will be the point where the rush will end and panic will ensue. The difficulty will most likely be a sigmoid function, and right now we're less than half way through. Depending on the preorders, the end result might be a marginally positive or even a negative income when you add up electricity costs. You can pretty much forget about making a positive ROI unless you get your units in the next couple of days.

Just to make clear, I'm a BFL customer (unfortunately), and it is obvious fact that I have a vested interest in discouraging other people from mining. However, since a large portion of the preorders are non-refundable, even if I somehow manage to sway those who can get their money back, we're still all screwed.

Agreed.

No point in ordering ASICs anymore. too risky.

sooner or later people will realize that and stop ordering.

[Cablez]

Why is hashfast able to provide the order chain and KnC is not willing to do so?
https://hashfast.com/order-chain/

Someone really bought 200 jets in one go?  How reliable is this information?

[efodix]

I think it's almost certain that we'll be seeing a difficulty of at least 500 million in a month or two.

BFL is currently somewhere around half way through clearing their preorder backlog, which means they'll add up somewhere around 100M to the current difficulty plus another 100M from updated devices which are not formally considered preorders. Should KnC ship an equal amount of units, and it may as well end up being more, we're already at 500.

Add to that all other companies, and we'll be closer to a billion. Also, don't forget about BFL monarch and the fact that a majority of preorders likely transferred their orders to a new device. Early next year, we're probably close to 2 billion.

I'm guessing that will be the point where the rush will end and panic will ensue. The difficulty will most likely be a sigmoid function, and right now we're less than half way through. Depending on the preorders, the end result might be a marginally positive or even a negative income when you add up electricity costs. You can pretty much forget about making a positive ROI unless you get your units in the next couple of days.

Just to make clear, I'm a BFL customer (unfortunately), and it is obvious fact that I have a vested interest in discouraging other people from mining. However, since a large portion of the preorders are non-refundable, even if I somehow manage to sway those who can get their money back, we're still all screwed.

It's pointless dude, someone else will always buy it. The Genesis Block has been trying to falsely dissuade people from mining for ages, but it is inevitable that whilst a profit margin exists, there is enough money to pour in as long as it beats banking interest rates. At some point that will balance out, then like GPU mining it's an investment into the believe gov acceptance and regulation tied with innovation in accessibility, products, services, and mainstream adoption will continue the BTC price rise as it becomes a more concrete, secure and useful currency and means of instantaneous wealth transfer. If you want to make big money then be prepared to work hard, sweat and innovate. The belief that people really thought they had locked up this mining game and it's reward all for themselves and no one else would notice is moronic. Flog the unit on eBay if you don't believe in Bitcoin, enough people will pay a premium, they always do. The new iPhone with finger print recognition shared from Apple with love to the NSA has been reaching $10k! And that's just for people that cannot wait two weeks for it to be in stock in your standard retain phone outlet. What possible return to you get from that?! It does nothing special, it makes calls and shares your personal info with security agencies, aside from that you're paying 1000% for a few keen glances two weeks before everyone has one??

The problem here is the preorders. It's not like you order a miner and you get one in the mail a few days later, you have to wait for months. And that gives you a false impression of the difficulty, making the units seem more profitable than they really are. Ultimately, people will still be buying units even when they'll spend more in electricity than they'll generate in bitcoins, because they'll ignore the future difficulty adjustment. When that happens, most people will throw their new miners straight from the postman's hands into the garbage bag. Those few lucky enough to live in the cheap electricity areas of the world will be the only ones making a profit.

So yeah, before that happens, the best option is to list them on ebay as soon as you get them. You can still mine for 45 days till Paypal asks for a chargeback. Or get a dayjob and fill your office with miners consuming your boss' electricity

[btc_uzr]

Why is hashfast able to provide the order chain and KnC is not willing to do so?
https://hashfast.com/order-chain/

Someone really bought 200 jets in one go?  How reliable is this information?

cloudhashing might be the customer, how knows..at least they buy 200+ from KnC

http://www.cloudhashing.com/newsletter/august2013.html
"We will officially be mining at 105 terahashes by the end of September 2013"

105/0,5=210 devices

Would it make sense for an asic manufacturer to increase the number of sold units artificially ?

[crumbs]

Why is hashfast able to provide the order chain and KnC is not willing to do so?
https://hashfast.com/order-chain/

Someone really bought 200 jets in one go?  How reliable is this information?

It was me.  It was I. 

[creativex]

The problem here is the preorders.

Whoa! Easy buddy. Last time I said something so radical in this thread I had to dodge some thrown stones.

[btc_uzr]

(...)
The Genesis Block has been trying to dissuade people from mining for ages, but it is inevitable that whilst a profit margin exists, there is enough money to pour in and squeeze it to just above electricity costs. At some point that will balance out (...)

Hm, from my point of view the genesis calculator is at least way more accurate than any of those with static diff fooling ppl.
And I doubt its purpose is to 'dissuade people from mining'.
**I do neither claim that genesis block it is perfect nor applicable for the next time.**

Regarding 'above electricity costs'...that's the reason why it's quite important to know what's the best 'W for GH/s' value possible we can get by downclocking the asic => long term profitability.

[btc_uzr]

The problem here is the preorders.

Whoa! Easy buddy. Last time I said something so radical in this thread I had to dodge some thrown stones.

Surprised ?
In earlier times the bearer of bad news usually got killed..

[Puppet]

The Genesis Block has been trying to falsely dissuade people from mining for ages,

Falsely? We shall find out who was "false" in a few months, but its already rather clear to me they will be proven to have been spot on, if not even too optimistic.

but it is inevitable that whilst a profit margin exists,

For whom? Profit margin for the average preordering miner ? you wish.  Their only hope is a huge increase in BTC exchange rate, and if that happens,  its not so much preordering miners as the BTC hoarders who didnt preorder, that will profit.

Comparing it to iphones is just plain ridiculous.

[tolip_wen]

That 10 second video contains a mysterious detail. (I view it optimistically)

It also shows what has been described here as quadrants but it's hard to see with the different solder mask.

YMMV

Soon!

[Bitcoinorama]

The Genesis Block has been trying to falsely dissuade people from mining for ages,

Falsely? We shall find out who was "false" in a few months, but its already rather clear to me they will be proven to have been spot on, if not even too optimistic.

but it is inevitable that whilst a profit margin exists,

For whom? Profit margin for the average preordering miner ? you wish.  Their only hope is a huge increase in BTC exchange rate, and if that happens,  its not so much preordering miners as the BTC hoarders who didnt preorder, that will profit.

Comparing it to iphones is just plain ridiculous.

The Genesis Block is false as it claims an exponential rise that won't occur. What will occur is one monstrous leap by the first significant production run fulfilled in a two week window. At which point it will plateau until successive incremental steps are made by delivery runs. The first step up of a professional manufacturer capable of delivering all units as promised on time will be the largest, the following will not as to equal such a rise an proportion of hashrate equal to double that that then exists will have to be deployed, which is never going to happen. As it stands now the current network hashrate is minor, as it stands after October the hashrate will never experience such a proportional leap again, therefore it can never be exponential as the Geneisis Block alludes to, therefore it is false. That's not to say hashrate will not grow significantly, but the Genesis Block is false by the means and rate it proposes. An accurate way of calculating would involve permitting users to enter hashrate deployable predications by manufacturer and a means of varying the timeframe in which each deployment cane be completed. Doubling the entire network hashrate, then doubling the network hashrate again, then doubling the network hashrate again month and month infinitely is BS.

Yes the profit margin for the average pre-order miner will be squeezed throughout the duration in which it exists, then a belief in which BTC price will increase, just as it did with GPU mining, which is precisely what I previously stated. Although the power requirements will reach such point by which Bitcoin will become feature in datacentres predominantly, and hashrate will be sold proportionately. It's unlikely it will stay housed in home environments, and it is up to the community support and grow the networkd for the alt-currencies as and when they offer innovative alternatives. Litecoin will obviously be the next currency and those with GPU farms that have foreseen that; were, and are; wise.

How is comparing the resale of available iPhones as and when they are released ridiculous? You honestly don't think these units when available couldn't fetch a pretty penny on eBay?? Of course they could, some in fact will. Sure that can be debated on moral grounds; but Avalon boxes, BFL units where they exist, are selling for premiums every day. ASICminer structured a whole business around selling items in hand for gross premium compared to what they could mine. I don't know who buys them, but someone does, so the market exists.

[creativex]

The problem here is the preorders.

Whoa! Easy buddy. Last time I said something so radical in this thread I had to dodge some thrown stones.

Surprised ?
In earlier times the bearer of bad news usually got killed..

I guess not, it's just rather disappointing that even people familiar with mining don't seem to see the risks even after BTCFPGA, BFL, Avalon, BFL, & BFL. Nasty mining has multiple orders in for monarchs and Cognitive just ordered 14*2Th from CoinTerra for January delivery. I don't know with absolute certainty if these guys that are plainly knowledgeable about mining are making +EV bets or no, but I do know with reasonable certainty that they cannot know what exchange rates or vendor margins will look like by the time they're receiving gear. Ordering expensive equipment should not be such a gamble and it wouldn't be if people would stop sending vaporware vendors zero interest loans multiple months in advance of expected shipping dates.