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Question: How much of your corn do you plan on cashing out in the next massive bull run?
None - 27 (20%)
1-10% - 18 (13.3%)
11-20% - 15 (11.1%)
21-30% - 19 (14.1%)
31-40% - 7 (5.2%)
41-50% - 14 (10.4%)
51-60% - 9 (6.7%)
61-70% - 6 (4.4%)
71-80% - 4 (3%)
81-90% - 2 (1.5%)
91-99% - 3 (2.2%)
100% - 11 (8.1%)
Total Voters: 135

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21793173 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (148 posts by 37 users deleted.)
mike4001
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February 22, 2018, 12:54:15 PM

3 weeks ago I wrote we will not see above 10k to 12k this year.

I think more and more that I might be wright ...

Then you were wrong already.

I don't think we went above 12k during this time.

But OK, we went below Cheesy

EDIT: Are these the stop-loss orders now?

Because we are dropping like a stone at the moment.
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Torque
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February 22, 2018, 12:58:30 PM

Also once again.

Notice

How

Everything

Is Pegged

To

Bitcoin
HairyMaclairy
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February 22, 2018, 12:59:14 PM

This is what is happening.  



The reason is Badger decided he didnt want to go through  breath testing at $12k and turned his car around and now he is running from the police.  
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February 22, 2018, 01:02:35 PM

Pegged

JayJuanGee
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February 22, 2018, 01:03:50 PM

[edited out]

Sounding that sure, I guess you guys sold all your coins @ 11.9k and buy back @ 3k right?

From where are you getting the impression that guys are "sure"?  We seem to be batting around scenarios, and some of those scenarios don't even come to play unless $10k breaks, which has not happened yet... and when we were at $11,500+, there was not even any kind of certainty that we were going to be coming back down, because at that time, we could have broken further UP, too..

I'm sure that there are some folks that are playing BIG and guessing correctly, and maybe TERA2 is going to come back in here and tell us how she played it all correctly and how now it is going down to lower points, that she had already set herself up for such play.. maybe she speaks truth and maybe she is just bullshitting, even if the waves end up playing fairly close to her early outline of what was going to happen (but still does not mean that she can foresee the future - even if the outlined scenario ended up coming out largely correct).

From this Cheesy

Quote
MOA is a very reasonable poster

I have no idea what you mean by that quote or from where you got it.

As the bull market started in November 17, I saw the similar patterns to 2014.


Your facts don't even sound correct.  The bull market started in about October 2015.  So, if you are talking about the latest price rise from November to December 2017, you seem to be relying on an out of context set of facts, no?



 Posted a few times here that it will end like the MtGox desaster but earned "this time is different" posts.


Of fucking course, this time is different... get a fucking grip.  MTGOX was a different historical time with different dynamics, so if you are trying to act like the BTC market is the same, then you are on a wacky trip.  You gotta be more specific than just throwing out random and baseless prediction assertions that might only be by looking at a chart or some other non contextualized identification of supposed patterns.


I am a long time holder since 2013 and it felt like the time is right to sell. But had no balls to sell at 19k.

That is your fucking lack of foresight.... what the fuck would you be telling folks to be doing nearly the opposite of what they should be doing.  you can sell on the way up and buy on the way down, but yeah, if you did not sell enough, then you made a mistake, and probably the better thing to do would be to hold through it, but sometimes you do have to take a bullet when you fucked up by not selling enough while the price was going up....

So currently we are in a buy situation or in a hodl situation.. not a sedl situation.

Maybe I wrote that first post just out of frustration. I have no idea where we are heading to. But it really feels like 2014 again.

You can feel all that you like, the facts are not with you and you are coming off as a nonsense FUD spreader.

Sure, it could be correct that it ends up being a 2014 situation, but not seeming too likely at the moment.

And seeing 2.5k would hurt damn much. I am pretty doubtfull it would recover from there ever again.

That is a pretty pessimistic view.  You better sell all your BTC and get the fuck out then.  Maybe if it goes back to $500, then you might consider buying at that point.


Question is, sell now and be happy with what you have or just go full risk and wait until end 2018 or 2019 :/

I think that you personally should sell everything right now, because you don't have any confidence in BTC.. so get out while you can.

Other folks should probably consider both the upside and the downside, so this does not seem like a good time to be selling, but surely everyone needs to decide based on their own situations.
d_eddie
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February 22, 2018, 01:04:27 PM

Some time ago we had a discussion here about a possible issue with the Lightning Network. Some big blocker was suggesting that the Lightning Network is doomed to fail because routing and because problems.

The potential problem is similar to a double spend attempt. Briefly and roughly: Alice has a channel with Bob, Alice sends funds to Bob and while Bob is offline she broadcasts the channel state as it was before she spent the funds, thus undoing the spend. However, if anyone broadcasts the correct (later) channel state, Alice is done: the whole channel balance goes to Bob. Serves her right for trying to cheat.

The problem is, if Bob's offline he knows nothing about Alice's wrongdoings, so there must be someone watching the channel for him. This someone could be rewarded by Bob with part of the funds if cheating is discovered (and therefore funds are gained by Bob). I speculated that a bounty market could come into existence. It seems there are already some bounty hunters in the present, clunky version of the LN. They are doing it for free at the moment, since the cost of watching a few channels is negligible.

It's in the comments. The video itself is technical. Mention of the bounty hunters was the topic that spurred the most attention in the discussion.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/7xrq5g/lightning_network_and_discreet_log_contracts/

I'm guessing that I may be the aforementioned big blocker. What with our continued conversations over my skepticism and all.
Yes jbreher, that's you. I didn't mention your name explicitly to avoid a tide of ad-hominem noise, but it seems you don't care that much.

Quote
Thanks for posting. I'll read.

There's a lot of layers here. As just one example: 'how much channel state is exposed to outsiders to allow such to police random actors?' But I'll reserve detailed discussion until after I land.
I'll read more carefully, too. I just gave a glance to the top posts. But more importantly, I'd like to listen to the talk on video. It seems rich with technical details, but I really can't stand lengthy videos. I much prefer the organized written form for complex content.
SidETH
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February 22, 2018, 01:04:39 PM

Also once again.

Notice

How

Everything

Is Pegged

To

Bitcoin

I remember a time when it was the complete opposite.
Any explanations on this development?
xhomerx10
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February 22, 2018, 01:07:17 PM

Question is, sell now and be happy with what you have or just go full risk and wait until end 2018 or 2019 :/

qft

 I have a hard time believing that quantum field theory is going to help in this instance.  It'll just complicate matters further because infinite degrees of freedom can easily lead to divergences of calculated quantities!
Torque
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February 22, 2018, 01:08:25 PM

Also once again.

Notice

How

Everything

Is Pegged

To

Bitcoin

I remember a time when it was the complete opposite.
Any explanations on this development?

The whales control more than you think. They control the floats of all the major altcoins, and peg their trading bots to the Bitcoin price so that small traders "have nowhere to run." That is, they will only pump the coins they want to pump as an out to falling prices elsewhere.

HairyMaclairy
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February 22, 2018, 01:10:07 PM

Also once again.

Notice

How

Everything

Is Pegged

To

Bitcoin

I remember a time when it was the complete opposite.
Any explanations on this development?

I like your theory:

Bitcoin

To

Is Pegged

Everything

How
xhomerx10
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February 22, 2018, 01:10:14 PM

So Whats going on guys? Can someone explain?

 UnDerDoG81 just became happy with what he has rather than wait an eternity (a whole year) for the inevitable.

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February 22, 2018, 01:13:27 PM

Huge motherfucking wall after popping up on stamp at $10100

And now another @$9400 on the buy side. Probably the same guy/group.
Much manipulation
Dakustaking76
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February 22, 2018, 01:25:13 PM

Huge motherfucking wall after popping up on stamp at $10100

And now another @$9400 on the buy side. Probably the same guy/group.
Much manipulation


Motherfuckersss Lets get them those hooooo's
d_eddie
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February 22, 2018, 01:31:15 PM

I know offtopic posts are frowned upon here, and some topics are more off than other, but I'll risk it.

Have you heard about cryptocurrencies? Well there's this nifty thing called bitcoin, it's my favorite.
It's holding 10.5 k-ish.


What is that supposed to mean?  You are bullish and hoping, or what?
I was expressing sarcastic discontent with all the racial/save the earth/left/right irrelevant talk, just trying to steer discussion into honey badger related territory.   Tongue

Nice to see you're (still, always) on it! Grin

Quote
Let me ask you a semi-personal question which is a kind of after-the-fact assessment regarding how you faired through our dip down to $6k?  Are you of the opinion that you largely ran out of money to buy BTC between $6k and $8k, even though you were able to buy some BTC in those price ranges?  Were you able to adjust some of your strategy in order to possibly better prepare in the future, or are you largely hoping that we are out of this downward price pickle?
I almost ran out. I kept placing buy orders hoping/thinking "it can't possibly go much lower than this". So I accumulated quite a bit (well, everything is relative) barely shy of selling grandma to buy moar.

Quote
Let me report my own personal scenario from the mid-September 2017 40% correction down from $4,980 to $2,970 - which was that after going through that situation, I had to readjust a considerable amount of my preparations, which actually caused me to oversell a bit from our BTC rebounding back up from $2,970, and really I did not feel that I completely recuperated until we started to break upwards back into new ATHs.. and then the icing on the cake restructuring came for me around 2x higher in the $10k arena and further more when we passed $15k which allowed a fuckload of restructuring and even added cockiness....
Good for you. I wasn't as forward-looking (or well funded?) as you, but I managed to do fairly well.

Quote
So, I am anticipating that even though you are making recovery plans from the unexpected over correction of 70% down to $5,920 that you are going to be in a much better position to really restructure your plan as BTC gets back up and maybe even becoming more solid in your approach as we assume the ATH again (assuming that we accomplish such either this year or a worse bull case scenario would be that it takes longer than a year to get above ATH again).... yeah, yeah, yeah, Beara readers, I understand also that there are also bear scenarios that could cause worse outcomes, even though I believe that a lot of us in this thread, including yours truly put a bit more weight on the probability of bull scenarios in the coming year rather than bear scenarios..

The NUMBERS, JayJuanGee, the NUMBERS! Don't you know we all read your posts just for the juicy probabilities with 4 significant digits after the decimal point??  Angry

Quote
and that is part of the reason that we are in bitcoin and part of the reason why we get so freaking excited about bitcoin.
If only that reckless badger would stop drinking and driving... eh Hairy guy?
d_eddie
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February 22, 2018, 01:33:37 PM

Also once again.

Notice

How

Everything

Is Pegged

To

Bitcoin

I remember a time when it was the complete opposite.
Any explanations on this development?

I like your theory:

Bitcoin

To

Is Pegged

Everything

How
Why
U
Yoda
Like
Talk?
starmman
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February 22, 2018, 01:36:10 PM

Huge motherfucking wall after popping up on stamp at $10100

And now another @$9400 on the buy side. Probably the same guy/group.
Much manipulation

sounds like it if the wall is a similar size - nice little bit of volatility today - hasn't reversed the dominance trend so far - most alts (at least the ones I'm trading) are still dropping for now
d_eddie
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February 22, 2018, 01:38:30 PM

Also once again.

Notice

How

Everything

Is Pegged

To

Bitcoin

I remember a time when it was the complete opposite.
Any explanations on this development?

The whales control more than you think. They control the floats of all the major altcoins, and peg their trading bots to the Bitcoin price so that small traders "have nowhere to run." That is, they will only pump the coins they want to pump as an out to falling prices elsewhere.

I have to agree with this reading of things. Torque might be a master of paranoid thinking and a conspiracy nut, but more often than not subsequent events agree with his (broad stroked, not numerically pinpointed) predictions.
Torque
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February 22, 2018, 01:42:04 PM

The whales control more than you think. They control the floats of all the major altcoins, and peg their trading bots to the Bitcoin price so that small traders "have nowhere to run." That is, they will only pump the coins they want to pump as an out to falling prices elsewhere.

I have to agree with this reading of things. Torque might be a master of paranoid thinking and a conspiracy nut, but more often than not subsequent events agree with his (broad stroked, not numerically pinpointed) predictions.

Ever notice that after a day or two of nothing but down across all cryptos, suddenly out of the blue some random shitcoin that no one expected will start pumping for no reason? Yeah, the whales do that on purpose... to concentrate all of their new $$$ resources on one pump and lure in the gullible.
JayJuanGee
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February 22, 2018, 01:47:59 PM
Last edit: February 22, 2018, 02:02:11 PM by JayJuanGee

So, I am anticipating that even though you are making recovery plans from the unexpected over correction of 70% down to $5,920 that you are going to be in a much better position to really restructure your plan as BTC gets back up and maybe even becoming more solid in your approach as we assume the ATH again (assuming that we accomplish such either this year or a worse bull case scenario would be that it takes longer than a year to get above ATH again).... yeah, yeah, yeah, Beara readers, I understand also that there are also bear scenarios that could cause worse outcomes, even though I believe that a lot of us in this thread, including yours truly put a bit more weight on the probability of bull scenarios in the coming year rather than bear scenarios..

The NUMBERS, JayJuanGee, the NUMBERS! Don't you know we all read your posts just for the juicy probabilities with 4 significant digits after the decimal point??  Angry

Don't remind me.  I am declining in my segregating amalgamated skill-set package (as jbreher might refer to it) and I cannot even keep up.  

I am thinking that I might have to attend a kind of statistics and probabilities re-education camp, until then I can't really apologize for my contentical lackings because I cannot guarantee that it won't happen again.   Cry Cry

Your post has now inspired me to begin outlining some guidelines for myself to put aside some funds for either: 1) statistics and probabilities re-education camp and/or 2) buying more BTC, just in case (perhaps 34.8% odds... o.k... im slipping, im slipping), prices go below $6,666.
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February 22, 2018, 02:05:41 PM

Previous attack was on tx fees and mempool congestion, now they are trying with the price???
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