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Question: Did we reach the bottom already?
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25876868 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (170 posts by 5 users with 9 merit deleted.)
fillippone
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February 10, 2020, 10:05:43 PM

I got the idea for this graph in Investing 1$ every day in bitcoin over the last five years, but the graph I created doesn't only include the last 5 years until today. It includes every consecutive period of 5 years in which Bitcoin had a dollar value, until yesterday.

I don't know if anyone ever made a graph like this before, but I think it adds a nice perspective.

Results:
Image loading...
Data source: https://coinmetrics.io/newdata/btc.csv
Note: I had to use a logarithmic scale to make the graph readable.

Details:
The first 5 year period starts on July 18, 2010, when Bitcoin is valued at $0.08584. On this day, $1 buys 11.64958062BTC.
After spending $1 on Bitcoin every day for 5 years (I used 1826 days), it's July 17 2015.
July 17, 2015 is the very first data point in the graph: the most left red and blue dots.
The last data point (the most right red and blue dots) represent the investment period that ended on February 9, 2020, and started 5 years before that date.

The obvious
Early adopters had the best bet. Nothing new here!
Investing a total of $1826 in Bitcoin, for 5 years, with a dollar per day, would have gotten you $10,000 or more at the end of your 5 years, no matter when you started!
The amount of Bitcoin you can buy using "dollar cost averaging" for 5 years in a row has continuously been declining. No exceptions!
The dollar equivalent seems to have touched a bottom at $10,000.

Investment advice
I don't do that! This graph is based on historic data, if I'd know the future, I'd be rich!

When someone asks me why I hang out in the WO, I answer with this kind of posts: a true knwoledge pearl.

In the WO thread you can find everything: from the most cheeky memes or the most obnoxious rants to competent news reporting or thoughtful analysis like this one.
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February 10, 2020, 10:19:19 PM
Last edit: February 10, 2020, 10:54:26 PM by jojo69




got out at .042

had a buy order in at .0285...but yeah...I pulled that
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February 10, 2020, 10:21:06 PM

On the bright side, with two nodes a 51% attack is not possible.

How would having 2 nodes make an attack impossible?
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February 10, 2020, 10:26:10 PM

More greater than the graph would be the person to offer this as a service. A 1$ a day sweep, oh boy how that could snowball   



I got the idea for this graph in Investing 1$ every day in bitcoin over the last five years, but the graph I created doesn't only include the last 5 years until today. It includes every consecutive period of 5 years in which Bitcoin had a dollar value, until yesterday.

I don't know if anyone ever made a graph like this before, but I think it adds a nice perspective.

Results:
Image loading...
Data source: https://coinmetrics.io/newdata/btc.csv
Note: I had to use a logarithmic scale to make the graph readable.

Details:
The first 5 year period starts on July 18, 2010, when Bitcoin is valued at $0.08584. On this day, $1 buys 11.64958062BTC.
After spending $1 on Bitcoin every day for 5 years (I used 1826 days), it's July 17 2015.
July 17, 2015 is the very first data point in the graph: the most left red and blue dots.
The last data point (the most right red and blue dots) represent the investment period that ended on February 9, 2020, and started 5 years before that date.

The obvious
Early adopters had the best bet. Nothing new here!
Investing a total of $1826 in Bitcoin, for 5 years, with a dollar per day, would have gotten you $10,000 or more at the end of your 5 years, no matter when you started!
The amount of Bitcoin you can buy using "dollar cost averaging" for 5 years in a row has continuously been declining. No exceptions!
The dollar equivalent seems to have touched a bottom at $10,000.

Investment advice
I don't do that! This graph is based on historic data, if I'd know the future, I'd be rich!
fillippone
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February 10, 2020, 10:27:19 PM

On the bright side, with two nodes a 51% attack is not possible.

How would having 2 nodes make an attack impossible?
I think he’s jokingly referring to the impossibility of having a 51% share of 2.
Funny.
The reality is you can easily add 3 nodes and have a 60% attack.
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February 10, 2020, 10:35:34 PM

No, Li Kashing's last name is Li
duh

I  thought that was his surname.
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Bitcoin Legal Tender Countries: 2 of 206


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February 10, 2020, 10:59:38 PM
Last edit: February 10, 2020, 11:27:04 PM by Gyrsur
Merited by Globb0 (2), BobLawblaw (2)

"When you accidentally summon the demon, while trying to sing the lyrics."  --Supergeets 3603

Dune - Hardcore Vibes  Grin

K2 Der Berg Ruft  Grin Grin

Edelweiss - "Bring Me Edelweiss"  Grin Grin Grin

Schiller und das Berlin Show Orchestra - ein schöner Tag - classic meets electro - Opening IGA 2017  Kiss

Tangerine Dream - Love On A Real Train (State Azure Cover)  Kiss Kiss

Teho - Arif (Original Mix)  Kiss Kiss Kiss

but this guys here run out of competition --> The Analog Session - N5 From Outer Space  Shocked Shocked Shocked
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BTC or BUST


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February 10, 2020, 11:04:44 PM
Merited by mindrust (2)

I am NOT sure if you should be proud of NOT buying.

Well I am..
I am definitely proud of what crypto I have been able to accumulate based on nothing but my own skill and determination to stack Satoshis, made completely on my own merit, having absolutely nothing to do with any advantage of how much I could "afford to buy".. I made it myself having nothing to do with $ or investments funded by any efforts outside of crypto.. Made all my crypto from crypto..

It's not like I got lucky on a few trades and made a killing.. It took me a LOT of time and hard effort to make the around 10,000 manual trades I have over years and gained the skill to have more of them profitable than not..

You don't think that's something to be proud of?
You can be proud of something you bought, while I can't be proud of something that I have MADE.. ??
I think not..
Would you be more proud of a house you bought with a nice lawn and all, or the house you built yourself on property you cleared yourself and made that nice lawn with your own hands?


So if you start with 1 BTC, then you should have 140BTC... great.  Hard to beat that.

It doesn't work like that that easily..
It is sooo much easier to double 0.01 BTC than it is to double 1 BTC.. Do you understand this?

You can flip a good spread all day long on a smaller market with 0.01 BTC but you cannot do the same with 1 BTC..
The more value you want to trade the more liquidity the market needs to have which will come with more skilled trading competition, smaller spreads, and less volatility..
Playing back and forth between walls/spreads is one of my main targets to trade but you can't do the same thing with larger amounts, because then you become the walls..
Trading based off large orders coming into the books pushing the price works great, untill your orders are the large orders that push the price, then it doesn't work anymore..

you are coming off as hostile to dollar cost averaging

I don't have any problem with the dollar cost averaging strategy.. I would recommend it also.. To those who aren't willing to put in any actual effort, or even alongside other efforts.. But I wouldn't shit all over other efforts/methods..
If I am hostile about anything it would be this...

Trading is also NOT a way to accumulate BTC or wealth.
trading should not be a means to accumulate BTC
Trading is also NOT a way to accumulate BTC or wealth.
trading should not be a means to accumulate BTC
you should not be planning on building your BTC wealth based on trading

Because that almost feels like an attack on me..
I have invested massive amounts of time and effort into doing exactly that, and I found a way to make it work, and yes I'm damn proud of what I have been able to accomplish, and you say that it's "Not a way" and something that "Should not be done"..
You are wrong..

Instead of putting in hundreds of hours playing stupid videogames like most NPC normies, I put basically that same effort into playing on exchanges..
Very wise choice IMO VS completely wasting all that time getting points in some stupid game, I accumulated satoshis instead..

If anything YOU are hostile at me for not just buying bitcoin and making my way via alternative means that do not fit your narrative..
Your way is not the only way.. Sorry..

You have to accept the fact that it CAN be done, unless you want to call me a liar..

dumb-ass fuck

 Roll Eyes
alevlaslo
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February 10, 2020, 11:20:19 PM

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5060756.msg53813282#msg53813282
AlcoHoDL
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February 10, 2020, 11:24:23 PM

I got the idea for this graph in Investing 1$ every day in bitcoin over the last five years, but the graph I created doesn't only include the last 5 years until today. It includes every consecutive period of 5 years in which Bitcoin had a dollar value, until yesterday.

I don't know if anyone ever made a graph like this before, but I think it adds a nice perspective.

Results:
Image loading...
Data source: https://coinmetrics.io/newdata/btc.csv
Note: I had to use a logarithmic scale to make the graph readable.

Details:
The first 5 year period starts on July 18, 2010, when Bitcoin is valued at $0.08584. On this day, $1 buys 11.64958062BTC.
After spending $1 on Bitcoin every day for 5 years (I used 1826 days), it's July 17 2015.
July 17, 2015 is the very first data point in the graph: the most left red and blue dots.
The last data point (the most right red and blue dots) represent the investment period that ended on February 9, 2020, and started 5 years before that date.

The obvious
Early adopters had the best bet. Nothing new here!
Investing a total of $1826 in Bitcoin, for 5 years, with a dollar per day, would have gotten you $10,000 or more at the end of your 5 years, no matter when you started!
The amount of Bitcoin you can buy using "dollar cost averaging" for 5 years in a row has continuously been declining. No exceptions!
The dollar equivalent seems to have touched a bottom at $10,000.

Investment advice
I don't do that! This graph is based on historic data, if I'd know the future, I'd be rich!

Excellent! Just excellent! That's some fine data analysis you've done there LoyceV, clearly visualizing what most of us hardcore Bitcoin HoDLers knew all along. You've put it up there, all nicely drawn and crystal-clear, for us to rub to all naysayers' faces. Puts things in perspective when it comes to investing in Bitcoin and how risky (or not) it really is.

I challenge anyone reading this, to give me a different (non-BTC) investment plan which would give a minimum of almost 450% gain by investing $1 daily for 5 years, regardless of when you started. Not 10%, not 50%, but 450%!

But the big prize goes, not to investors, but to HoDLers! Imagine how wealthy one would be if he/she had invested $1 daily in Bitcoin from 2010 to 2015, and then HeDL his/her stash until today! Assuming the maximum (far-left) point in the blue graph is around 2000 BTC, that lucky smart individual would now have around $20,000,000 ($20M)! * That's a whopping 1,095,190% gain, from a meager $1826! *

* To all HoDLers: in case you haven't realised, this ( ^^^ ) is YOU and ME in a few years' time!
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February 10, 2020, 11:33:03 PM



How is 676BC - 2025AD an "ascending age" when the entire rise and fall of Rome happened in that period and then a dark ages.  That sure doesn't sound like a single, homogeneous age to me.  The only way you can form anything coherent out of that is if you claim Roman bureaucrats founded the Catholic church to try and subvert and rule over populations and that dynasty is somehow still continuing to this day.  But that's obviously not the case when parasitic, evil cult of Judaism members and their central banks have usurped most power structures years ago.
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February 10, 2020, 11:34:37 PM


but this guys here run out of competition --> The Analog Session - N5 From Outer Space  Shocked Shocked Shocked

That yellow WASP synth  Shocked
Some other fine vintage stuff right there. Cool old dudes  Cool
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February 10, 2020, 11:38:51 PM
Merited by Gyrsur (1)


I like you man... I really do!
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February 10, 2020, 11:44:26 PM



How is 676BC - 2025AD an "ascending age" when the entire rise and fall of Rome happened in that period and then a dark ages.  That sure doesn't sound like a single, homogeneous age to me.  The only way you can form anything coherent out of that is if you claim Roman bureaucrats founded the Catholic church to try and subvert and rule over populations and that dynasty is somehow still continuing to this day.  But that's obviously not the case when parasitic, evil cult of Judaism members and their central banks have usurped most power structures years ago.

Hitler should read carefully through the whole text: the Kali Yuga (Iron Age) as a whole (descending + ascending) is/was a very dark age until AD 2025. in 2025 after Trump the future will seems very bright for the whole mankind but shortly after the one true GOD will fulfill HIS prophecies.
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February 10, 2020, 11:56:40 PM


but this guys here run out of competition --> The Analog Session - N5 From Outer Space  Shocked Shocked Shocked

That yellow WASP synth  Shocked
Some other fine vintage stuff right there. Cool old dudes  Cool

the guys seems still alive at least in 2017 --> The Analog Session - N5 From Outer Space (live at Combo Social Club)
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February 11, 2020, 12:05:28 AM
Merited by mindrust (1)

FRESH FROM WANGA/MASTERLUC TELEGRAM:

Quote
Bce вoт кpичaт: xaлвинг,xaлвинг (halvening). И в кoммeнтax пoд мoими идeями бpeдят им. Taк вoт, cвeжий взгляд. Имeю нaглocть зaявить, чтo xaлвинг, кaк cкaляpнoe coбытиe, нe влияeт нa гpaфик цeны вooбщe никaк. Двa пpeдыдyщиx xaлвингa я пepeживaл и нaблюдaл. Booбщe нoль нa мaccy. Toчки xaлвингa пoпaдaют в coвepшeннo cлyчaйныe мecтa paзныx тpeндoв. И ничeгo нe вызывaют, дaжe мaлeйшeй peaкции pынкa, нecмoтpя нa вceoбщий aжиoтaж и фyндaмeнтaльнocть coбытия.

Знaeтe, нaвepнoe этo фeнoмeн дaжe. Ho oбъяcнeниe ecть. Xaлвинг этo пpиpoдa биткoинa, тaкoe мeтaфизичecкoe явлeниe, кoтopoe coздaёт eгo cyть и пpoявлeниe кoтopoгo нeльзя oтыcкaть нa пoвepxнocти.  Xaлвинг пpoявляeтcя в тoм, чтo биткoин дoлгocpoчнo pacтeт. A вecнoй ничeгo ocoбeннoгo вы нe yвидитe.

GOOGLE TRANSLATE:

Everyone is shouting: halving, halving. And in the comments under my ideas rave about them. So, a fresh look. I have the audacity to say that halving, as a scalar event, does not affect the price chart at all. Two previous halving I experienced and observed. Generally zero to ground. Halving points fall into completely random places of different trends. And they do not cause anything, not even the slightest reaction of the market, despite the general excitement and fundamental nature of the event.

You know, this is probably a phenomenon even. But there is an explanation. Halving is the nature of Bitcoin, a metaphysical phenomenon that creates its essence and the manifestation of which cannot be found on the surface. Halving is manifested in the fact that bitcoin is growing for a long time. And in the spring you will not see anything special.


P.S.: Never seen him write so much. Weird. I am not going to opine on it. Bleh.
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February 11, 2020, 12:09:20 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1)

The recent events of the epidemic that has killed so many people in China, has caused many to put Bitcoin as a refuge from value.



Quote
“Technically the structure’s bias is bullish as long as price doesn’t lose $9,150,” said Teddy Cleps, a market analyst at Crypto Freak Network. “Price has a decent margin to retrace and mark another higher high, and thus continue its growth.”

Source:https://www.newsbtc.com/2020/02/10/bitcoin-dips-on-profit-taking-but-fundamentals-show-its-parabolic-rally-is-not-finished/

Behold, according to some analysts, Bitcoin and Gold continue to rise despite the outlook in the world, some speak of correlation even.

It is well known that the correlation is low between the two .. only that it can be taken as an important fundamental that can be exploited in the market.


Correlating investing in safe haven assets during times of uncertainty is normal and it's an especially important place to watch with Bitcoin. The reality is that most of the world simply does not care about Bitcoin or much at all for that matter, all they want is to continue to live the 'normal' life they've been afforded for the past 7 decades or so.  It's my belief that harsh events must challenge the masses 'normal' way of living and force change. Bitcoin adoption as a safe haven asset will continue during global crisis but I'm afraid the absence of such events will allow the herd to slip back into an apathetic slumber.
It appears that greed has mostly powered the Bitcoin market thus far and as much as I'd like to think that it would be convenience that ushers it forward from here, fear is the more likely motivator.  Most great changes have been born of great tragedies. If Bitcoin is to be as revolutionary as we speak of, I don't see why it would be any different this time.
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1/21000000 , the only math you need to know


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February 11, 2020, 12:55:42 AM

I'm bored
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February 11, 2020, 01:17:28 AM

GOOD morning guys.

This is fine. In fact it is more than fine... this is being one of the most beautiful and smooth "pumpenings" ever. Wouldn't even mind if it were to retest $9K or even high $8K to scare the shit out of any remaining weak hands before going on.

So far, so good.

Exactamente!!!!!

We should not be complaining about nearly a 6 week pump from $7,175 to $10,200 (about 42%) or even going from about 8 weeks at the December 17 bottom of $6,424 (which would be nearly 59%).

Sure, there was a blip of a correction in the $8,xxxs, but overall, we have not really had any meaningful correction, so how can that NOT be good?

I am not saying that we have to have a correction in order to resume UPPITY, but having some kind of correction or flat period is NOT exactly out of expectations or even bearish... even though did I not hear some sorcerer wannabes proclaiming that we were never going to see 4 digits again?  Yeah right.... Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

I would like to get out of 4 digits too, and to forever stay out of 4 digits, but also seems to be a lot of froth coming with us from the alt coin (aka shitcoin) scene.. so I am not sure if that altcoin pumpening is healthy... but either way, bitcoin probably does not give too many shits, even though there could be both dragging effects but also slingshot effects too, so some of these dynamics with the shitcoins can cut either way in terms of their short term effects on BTC prices.
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February 11, 2020, 01:32:38 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

I'm bored

I'm bored, reading your boring post above....yawn....(lobs it back at you)

dismal cycle boredom Sad

edit: good point above

We should not be complaining about nearly a 6 week pump from $7,175 to $10,200 (about 42%)

maybe I'm just dull and not bored? Sad

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