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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26364326 times)
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January 09, 2023, 01:11:51 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), Toxic2040 (1)

I must confess something. I stopped caring for BTC's price somewhere in 2022. Then I realized BTC won't change my life the way I hoped. The reasons are not related to the current low price. The problem is my country. There is no such thing as an early retirement. I have to wait until I am 65 years old if I want to get a pension. And this is 15 years away from now. So, I can't quit my job even if were a billionaire. I can't count on the value of my stash for my everyday expenses.  The big money can be spent in a matter of days. Easy come, easy gone. So, I have to keep working, which is not so bad actually. I even work at a 2nd place 300km away and travel once per 2 weeks excluding winter and summer, when I am on vacation. So, what can Bitcoin give to me - just a better protection against the inflation and that I could buy anything essentioal for me and my family. This is good of course, but way too far from my dreams of travelling around the world and buying beachfront villas... I did everything I could - even being all in for the last bear cycle.  So, for me this is kinda dissapointing. But I learned to be happy and live without watching the price every day, feeling bad for the crashes. I will continue DCAing if the price is under 20K but not above. I reached my stash goal which can allow me to live without any concerns. I think it is better this way than to harbour false hopes and live with fears.  
Constantly monitoring the price of bitcoin, reading articles or listening to news that tries to forecast the price, as well as doing all of these things can cause a lot of anxiety and tension. I try to concentrate my energies on expanding my knowledge of the bitcoin ecosystem because it is too much to bear. Because of how moving your narrative is, you'll simply have to wait another 15 years. Nevertheless, I like your plan because it will benefit you in the long run and will benefit both parties.
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January 09, 2023, 01:15:45 PM

.....The problem is my country. There is no such thing as an early retirement. I have to wait until I am 65 years old if I want to get a pension. And this is 15 years away from now. So, I can't quit my job even if were a billionaire...

I don't get it....  why would you need the pension, if you were "a billionaire" (or rich enough) ?
Because I can't trust myself. I can spend billions on yachts, etc. and live like a homeless. Or, my future wife can leave me and get all of it. There are way too many examples for that. And I don't want to finish in the gutter with no income and food on the table. The only possiblity for a self custody fund is the life insurance. But not completely, since I could withdraw everything anytime albeit with a loss.
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January 09, 2023, 01:38:18 PM
Merited by vroom (5), JayJuanGee (3), BitcoinBunny (3), vapourminer (1), jojo69 (1), AlcoHoDL (1), DdmrDdmr (1), Toxic2040 (1), Negotiation (1)

I must confess something. I stopped caring for BTC's price somewhere in 2022. Then I realized BTC won't change my life the way I hoped. The reasons are not related to the current low price. The problem is my country. There is no such thing as an early retirement. I have to wait until I am 65 years old if I want to get a pension. And this is 15 years away from now. So, I can't quit my job even if were a billionaire. I can't count on the value of my stash for my everyday expenses.  The big money can be spent in a matter of days. Easy come, easy gone. So, I have to keep working, which is not so bad actually. I even work at a 2nd place 300km away and travel once per 2 weeks excluding winter and summer, when I am on vacation. So, what can Bitcoin give to me - just a better protection against the inflation and that I could buy anything essentioal for me and my family. This is good of course, but way too far from my dreams of travelling around the world and buying beachfront villas... I did everything I could - even being all in for the last bear cycle.  So, for me this is kinda dissapointing. But I learned to be happy and live without watching the price every day, feeling bad for the crashes. I will continue DCAing if the price is under 20K but not above. I reached my stash goal which can allow me to live without any concerns. I think it is better this way than to harbour false hopes and live with fears. 

Hmm lots to say about this post … but also lots of Meh…

Everyone with even way less of billionaires status can retire at birth…

If indeed current stash is there and the price would be high, lots of opportunities like buying worthy things in RL…
With that and a stash of corn, retirement is a sure thing!
Don’t know what your goal was… but when a stash is worth from double or more digit millions then opportunities are behind every corner.

Also in the world of today even pensions can fall away ….
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January 09, 2023, 02:01:17 PM


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January 09, 2023, 02:36:11 PM
Last edit: January 09, 2023, 02:50:07 PM by JayJuanGee
Merited by JimboToronto (1), Toxic2040 (1)

Afroman making the best out of an unfortunate situation.  
Afroman - Will You Help Me Repair My Door (OFFICIAL MUSIC VIDEO)
Corrupt police. But what else can you expect from a country led by corrupt politicians?

Unfortunately it seems the UK (used to be VERY LITTLE corruption here actually) and mainland Europe are only following in these footsteps. :-(

All those bozos that caused untold damage with the unnecessary lockdowns only got rewarded and promoted for their sheer stupidity and often, I suspect, evil corruption.
The exact financial moron in charge in the UK throwing money around during Covid got promoted to Prime Minister. Unbelievable.

If anyone should be raided it's Joe Biden, Hunter Biden and SBF. Three of the biggest criminals in recent US history. We can probably extend that list further with rapist Bill Clinton, criminal Hilary Clinton, Nancy Pelosi, Dr. Fauci and Maxine Waters.

I am noticing a somewhat partisan framework that you seem to be making BB, which causes me to assert that I do not give any shits about partisan framings and at the same time, I am glad that diptwat Trump got raided for stealing top secret government documents, and it is likely not even necessary that they should have been top secret in order for his ass to have been in trouble for stealing government documents.. but he is not in jail.. and probably he should have been for real crimes committed on the people through so many ways that he was using his position to unduly profit (even before he became president cheating people and not paying them and all kinds of mob-like shenanigans to focus only on himself.. surely not someone capable of representing anyone but himself), failing/refusing to disclaim interest in his various supposed businesses while he was president, failing/refusing to release his tax documents and to be transparent about his own finances as a public official and also trying to incite the over throw of the government because he was (and is) a whiny loser.  

That dicktwat Trump (and now again a proclaimed candidate - largely with ongoing criminal intentions) was a whiny loser even before he started being president in 2017 ... but at least at that point, it had seemed that he had won the vote of the people through the system that was then in place (counting each state's delegates and the weird way that presidential election counting has historically been conducted.. which for me it seems quite nice that there is some law and precedent that still kind of works in the USA, even though someone who fails to recognize law or to be accountable for the law had been allowed to be put in a position of executing federal laws.. which had made a mockery over the legal system to the extent that it might have had some validity prior to the various attacks and self dealings on it that seemed to go way further under that douchebag Trump than it had under some of the predecessors who likely don't necessarily need a free pass.. .. not even considering the matter in partisan ways.. do we believe in rule of law or not?  

Of course, SBF, his parents and several others associated with FTX matters should be charged and probably locked up.. but we also still believe in trials.. and that process and hopefully justice is served in regards to the FTX related matters but it is not exactly clear how some of the various FTX related matters are being spun in disingenuine ways too.. so we should not be allowing ourselves to get caught too much in the ways that these matters are spun in partisan ways.. and even in desperate distracting ways..and perhaps with ongoing goals of various US Govt folks to believe that there is a need to beat up on bitcoin (or crypto or whatever they are calling it in order to get in their draconian bullshit talking points).. so I am not willing to turn the various frauds in regards to FTX or even the other frauds that had been happening in terms of some of the other players who ran off with customer money, such as Terra/Luna, 3AC, Blockfi, Voyager, Celsius and perhaps a few others that I am currently not remembering, into a partisan issue, even if there were some really weird buying of influence practices and attempts at buying influence through that FTX machine.. that seemed to have mostly skewed democratic but was the buying of influence was happening in other ways too.. .

Rally amaging .gif you can make another video .gif for thes funny monents  Grin I really wish one day I could drive around with a car and have some bitcoins with me.

Maybe you would like to purchase an NFT from Nutildah too?  He can help you out, since he is such a great guy.. and you will become richie in the future because bitcoins have a lot of flaws, including that my lil preciouses are boring.  #justsaying

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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January 09, 2023, 02:58:14 PM

Screw that. Buy when you can. Sell when you must.

Jimbo says to you
Buy when you can
Sell when you have to
If you really must
That's a part of the plan
We crouch for survival
'Til next bull's arrival
One day, we'll all understand
One day, we'll all understand
One day, we'll all understand

Happy new year.  You are sorely missed
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January 09, 2023, 03:01:21 PM


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January 09, 2023, 03:09:37 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (3), vapourminer (1), JimboToronto (1), Hueristic (1), DdmrDdmr (1), Toxic2040 (1)

I must confess something. I stopped caring for BTC's price somewhere in 2022. Then I realized BTC won't change my life the way I hoped. The reasons are not related to the current low price. The problem is my country. There is no such thing as an early retirement. I have to wait until I am 65 years old if I want to get a pension. And this is 15 years away from now. So, I can't quit my job even if were a billionaire. I can't count on the value of my stash for my everyday expenses.  The big money can be spent in a matter of days. Easy come, easy gone. So, I have to keep working, which is not so bad actually. I even work at a 2nd place 300km away and travel once per 2 weeks excluding winter and summer, when I am on vacation. So, what can Bitcoin give to me - just a better protection against the inflation and that I could buy anything essentioal for me and my family. This is good of course, but way too far from my dreams of travelling around the world and buying beachfront villas... I did everything I could - even being all in for the last bear cycle.  So, for me this is kinda dissapointing. But I learned to be happy and live without watching the price every day, feeling bad for the crashes. I will continue DCAing if the price is under 20K but not above. I reached my stash goal which can allow me to live without any concerns. I think it is better this way than to harbour false hopes and live with fears.  

Hmm lots to say about this post … but also lots of Meh…

Everyone with even way less of billionaires status can retire at birth…

If indeed current stash is there and the price would be high, lots of opportunities like buying worthy things in RL…
With that and a stash of corn, retirement is a sure thing!
Don’t know what your goal was… but when a stash is worth from double or more digit millions then opportunities are behind every corner.

Also in the world of today even pensions can fall away ….

Not the same for everyone, but I would agree that $10M or more would be a reason to quit a job you don't like and self-retire early. In many countries, one can be self-insured by paying the government a monthly amount, which allows one to be unemployed but stay insured and receive the same benefits (medical, future pension, etc.) as a fully employed person. Of course, one has to be able to keep paying for 15 years (in ivomm's case), which cannot be guaranteed (as things stand now) by a small Bitcoin stash. With Bitcoin price hovering in the $17k region, one would need to have 589+ BTC to be able to securely self-retire with the equivalent of $10M+ of fiat. The fewer coins one has, the riskier it gets. Sometimes life makes these choices for us, e.g., being a coiner and losing your job enables/forces you to take more risks in attempting to use your coins to survive. But having a decent job makes it more difficult to quit (and increase risk), unless you have lots of coins (which reduce risk).

I don't agree with ivomm's "easy come, easy go" comment for someone's Bitcoin wealth. It depends on the individual. If you can't control your finances and are desperately craving to live the high life, then sure, you can spend millions in one year and lose everything. But it's not the same for everyone. I still own a Toyota, while I can easily buy a much more expensive car. But I don't need to. My priorities are different.

Taking into account that the above mentioned number of 589+ BTC will very likely drop significantly as Bitcoin price rises in the (near) future, HoDLing and/or DCA'ing becomes all the more important strategy for many of us low- to mid-level marine species out there. At a price of $100k+ (say, sometime in 2025), that number becomes 100- BTC, which makes things much easier for many of us.

Looking fwd to 2027+, when we will have so much fun reading these posts...  Cheesy
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January 09, 2023, 03:24:01 PM

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January 09, 2023, 03:32:08 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), Toxic2040 (1)

Happy New Year jbreher!

Jimbo says to you
Buy when you can
Sell when you have to
If you really must
That's a part of the plan
We crouch for survival
'Til next bull's arrival
One day, we'll all understand
One day, we'll all understand
One day, we'll all understand

A voice we won't lose
Unfound, post-picnic re-found
Bear is on the loose



#haiku
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January 09, 2023, 03:49:56 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), Hueristic (1)

The problem is that in my country there are two requirements to get a pension and health care: 1. I have to go to work for 40 years and 2. I have to be at least 65 years old. If the 2nd is not fulfilled there is no way of buying it. I could only buy years for the 1st requirement. Currently I'm way below $0.5mil, so there is no hope in the next 5 years to reach $10mil. And the houses here are quite expensive (close to the prices of French Riviera like Monaco), despite the low average salary. So, I have to spend almost everything if we reach 100K to buy a good house. But this won't be life changing event, just a headache. And even if I reach $10mil, how could I protect them from myself, thieves, or divorce, etc. with no income - impossible! In 2021 I was too excited, bragged to my friends, spent too much although for good reasons, gave away some to my friends and charity. Then I started to realize that I can't impose on myself rules about spending. Not to mention paying salary to someone to look after my real estate. So, I came to the conclusion that I just have to continue working and forget about my stash. It is sad that when someone gets to 65 usually is very weak and ill, like my mother who died from cancer. But nothing can be done - I was born a slave in my country and I can't leave. Now my dad is very ill, so he can't enjoy the benefits of Bitcoin. I was also ill, fortunately the surgery went well. But for how long until the next big illness, I don't know. So, I stopped worrying about the price. I just try to live my life the best way I can with the least possible expenses. I really don't need yachts, or beachfront villas, etc. Just a few good friends to go together through life, that's all I need.



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January 09, 2023, 04:00:49 PM
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look like a whale just did that monthly BTC DCA  Cheesy
that or JJG just realized that DCA is for pussies and finally went all in

I have been in bitcoin long enough in order to not have any kinds of panic episodes or anything like that.  I do remember having a panic episode in around November 2015 when the BTC price shot up from $300 to $500, which was a kind of Fear of Missing out... .. but for me it is difficult to get excited about our current prices, even if we get a thousand or two up or down... well maybe I would be more excited about down a couple of thousand because that would end up breaking the now existing low of $15,479 for this current cycle.

Pretty much I have been an advocate for variations of DCA since I got started in BTC, and of course some of my own practices have evolved over the years, and most of the time when I make any changes it would have been based on incremental changes, and I don't fuck around with large buys or sales, because mostly I am employing some systematic approaches that mostly involve accumulating BTC.. but of course, many folks know that I sell small amounts of BTC on the way up and use those proceeds to buy on the way down.. the sells on the way up are small, so they likely would be at most 5% for around a 100% price increase.. and perhaps not even that much these days**... ..

**Oh, I just looked it up, and it looks like my current sell orders show that I am selling about 1.3% of my current stash if the BTC price were to double straight up from here.  In the olden days, I would allow for the sales of up to 10% of my BTC for every 100% price increase, and so I had not realized how little I had been selling of my BTC stash in recent times... so I guess I have quite a bit of allowance where I am able to sell more BTC, even in the normal course of just raking out some profits, if I feel that I want to sell some for whatever reason, including but not limited to having BTC sell limits that have not even been closed to being met in recent times... and including if I were to have some kind of a real world cashflow desire, want or need... so the next 100% price rise is up to about $35k, and it looks like I have about 2% for the next 100% up to $70k, so even that is pretty low as compared with my historical levels that were likely higher than that.

I bought on the luna crash low in June like 17Kish and bought some more recently to lower my avg price and attempt to buy at the bottom.
I suspect you have none

TrustedBitcoiner only bangs 10s.  Don't you not know nuttin bitcoinPsycho?

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

I bought on the luna crash low in June like 17Kish and bought some more recently to lower my avg price and attempt to buy at the bottom.
I suspect you have none
i'm going to sell some rn, buy the dip sell the rip! Grin

Exactly!!!!

We have seen your know-more-than everybody else type around here quite a bit over the years.  They do not tend to last very long before they get reckt as fuck.. and then turn into bitter whiney no coiners who are waiting for dips that never happen.

[edited out]
DCA is fine, its probably what all the noobs that ran out of money at 30 should have done... and tbh i should maybe of done some DCA, while i did catch some nice lows, the size of my position isn't  where it should be... ahh whatever I bet ill get to buy more sub 17K soon, if not ill just buy on nice pull back and not worry to much about price.

When did you get into bitcoin?

Your forum registration date is ONLY showing July 2022, so there has not been enough time for the DCA of the last couple of years to have had paid off.. even probably have to go back more than 3 years before the DCA might start to show as profitable.

Frequently with BTC, it can take a while for the DCA to pay off and frequently it is longer term DCA that really starts to show itself as being hard to beat by most of the traders. Of course, there are always going to be some folks who are able to beat regular DCA, but it is questionable whether it is even worth all of the effort to go down the trading route.

I've been in bitcoin for years.
i have a long term position, and i do some trading with a small amount for fun & profit.

DCA feels more like a way of saving money not investing, like if you don't have 10K to throw at BTC, but you do have an extra 200$ a month you want to save then ya DCA... if you have money to invest i believe a far better strategy is to figure out how much exposure your looking to get, say you want to invest ~10K$, you buy $2-5K right away, then you wait for dips to buy more, if your doing this in a bear market chances are you'll end up with a bag that is a bit heavier then you would of liked (but thats OK, you can rebalance during pumps ), if the market is bullish your first buy should be bigger, and you should be more aggressive buying the dips cuz chances are you wont get that full $10K invested. A 1 time all in buy isn't as crazy as some some people make it out to be, just don't be doing that kind of thing when price has gone up 300% in a few months....

big stacks of fiat just sitting on the sidelines DCA'ing over years  sounds crazy to me. it only seems to make sense to DCA if you have no other choice, you have no speculative-high-risk-investment-money right now, but you can set aside X amount each month, in that case it would be crazy to put that money aside and and only invest once you have $5K saved up, in that case you "DCA".
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January 09, 2023, 04:01:17 PM


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January 09, 2023, 04:19:22 PM
Merited by AlcoHoDL (2)

I must confess something. I stopped caring for BTC's price somewhere in 2022. Then I realized BTC won't change my life the way I hoped.

Did you get into shitcoins at that point?

The reasons are not related to the current low price. The problem is my country. There is no such thing as an early retirement. I have to wait until I am 65 years old if I want to get a pension. And this is 15 years away from now. So, I can't quit my job even if were a billionaire. I can't count on the value of my stash for my everyday expenses.  

Well.. perhaps fuck you status for you is to forgo that pension or what?

Doesn't your country have vesting?  After  a certain number of years, you vest in your pension, so you do not lose it, but you are not able to collect until you are 65?  That might be the case, no?  Or do you end up foregoing it completely if you stop working early?

Are you saying that you could not live off of a billion dollars?  you would not be able to cash out each month or whatever? 

We figure $2 million as entry-level fuck you status for $6,666 per month of passive income?  Do you need more than that?  Why wouldn't $6,666 per month work for you?  What if you double it and then you feel that you have to reach $4 million, which would be $13.3k per month of cashflow.  That would not be enough?  There's gotta be a line somewhere, no?

I am having troubles believing this.

With any of us there are troubles with various systems, yet investing in bitcoin is likely going to help to improve conditions, even if there still might be difficulties to get to total fuck you status.. there should be ways to supplement, so maybe your issue is that you end up needing more than you had previously calculated.... which is not an uncommon mistake.. .. many times people will miscalculate something like the cost of healthcare, and yeah, being within a pension system is likely easier than being outside of it, so part of the question might be whether you would lose the pension completely or just be deferred in collecting it  and if you lose it completely, then surely you have to reach a higher level of wealth to replace that lost income... Most of the time you should not need anything even close to a billion to live in any place.. and whether we are talking about entry level fuck you status or having to double or triple our previous thoughts about entry-level fuck you status, it is likely not as high to get to fuck you status (such as not even working with a $billion) as you are making it out to be.

The big money can be spent in a matter of days. Easy come, easy gone. So, I have to keep working, which is not so bad actually. I even work at a 2nd place 300km away and travel once per 2 weeks excluding winter and summer, when I am on vacation. So, what can Bitcoin give to me - just a better protection against the inflation and that I could buy anything essentioal for me and my family.

Yeah.. of course, not everyone can make it to fuck you status, but surely bitcoin can be used to supplement any situation... for sure.. and of course, there are no guarantees that bitcoin will go up rather than down or sideways, even though it still seems like the best asset that we have as an option to accumulate and to maintain aggressively (without being overly aggressive) allocated in our investment portfolio.

This is good of course, but way too far from my dreams of travelling around the world and buying beachfront villas...

Sounds like you either miscalculated how much you needed, failed to adequately research or you gambled away whatever your BTC strategy was or was supposed to be (perhaps overly leveraging or placing your coins with gambling custodians?) and now you are rationalizing that getting to some variation of fuck you status was not possible in the first place.

I did everything I could - even being all in for the last bear cycle.  

All in does not seem good..,. sounds like it could be describing gambling and/or failure refusal to adequately and prudently prepare for a variety of price directions.  Tough to say that you did everything perfectly and it still did not work out... bitcoin has been a great thing to invest in.. and continues to be a great thing to invest in.

So,  you might just need some kind of a batslapping to snap you back to reality and out of your fantasy negative nancies.

So, for me this is kinda dissapointing.

Huh?  You mean the BTC price moved lower than you expected and stayed lower than you had expected it to stay?  That's kind of retarded.  There's no guarantees regarding BTC's price, and BTC prices frequently have gone beyond expectations.  What else is new?  If you largely accumulated your BTC prior to September 2020, then there is no reason that your average price per BTC should not be quite a bit below $10k.. so what's the problem? 

Also the longer that you have been in BTC, then the more likely that your average cost per BTC would be even lower.  Of course, you are showing a September 2016 forum registration date, so you should have had quite a bit of opportunities to accumulate decent amounts of BTC that are even still quite a bit in profits.. even if you might have fucked up some parts of whatever you had been doing... Maybe you were employing some kind of a stupid-ass buy and sell strategy in order to accumulate BTC rather than a more strict  buy and hold only strategy.?  Once you get to fuck you status or some kind of high BTC profits level you might be able to fuck around with selling parts of your stash to offset BTC volatility, but it should not be large portions and trying to gamble to buy back lower and all that nonsense... that's what it sounds like you might have been doing.. and fucking around with gambling and acting as if you had been being prudent the whole time.  Something sounds fishy about your negative nancy-isms.

But I learned to be happy and live without watching the price every day, feeling bad for the crashes. I will continue DCAing if the price is under 20K but not above. I reached my stash goal which can allow me to live without any concerns. I think it is better this way than to harbour false hopes and live with fears.  

Well, none of us should be building up overly optimistic expectations in regards to having to have bitcoin price perform at certain levels in order to feel fulfilled.

I do agree that sometimes we can calculate that our stash is mostly BIG enough.. so there should not be any problem coming to those kinds of conclusions regarding if any of us believe that we have accumulated enough BTC in order to achieve goals that we might reasonably expect to be possible or probable through our maintaining a BTC stash... and however we plan to use it in the coming years or maybe further down the road, if our timeline might be longer.

.....The problem is my country. There is no such thing as an early retirement. I have to wait until I am 65 years old if I want to get a pension. And this is 15 years away from now. So, I can't quit my job even if were a billionaire...
I don't get it....  why would you need the pension, if you were "a billionaire" (or rich enough) ?

Yeah. .exactly.. makes little to no sense.

.....The problem is my country. There is no such thing as an early retirement. I have to wait until I am 65 years old if I want to get a pension. And this is 15 years away from now. So, I can't quit my job even if were a billionaire...
I don't get it....  why would you need the pension, if you were "a billionaire" (or rich enough) ?
Because I can't trust myself. I can spend billions on yachts, etc. and live like a homeless. Or, my future wife can leave me and get all of it. There are way too many examples for that. And I don't want to finish in the gutter with no income and food on the table. The only possiblity for a self custody fund is the life insurance. But not completely, since I could withdraw everything anytime albeit with a loss.

You are like a drama queen right now - making little to no sense.

Not the same for everyone, but I would agree that $10M or more would be a reason to quit a job you don't like and self-retire early. In many countries, one can be self-insured by paying the government a monthly amount, which allows one to be unemployed but stay insured and receive the same benefits (medical, future pension, etc.) as a fully employed person. Of course, one has to be able to keep paying for 15 years (in ivomm's case), which cannot be guaranteed (as things stand now) by a small Bitcoin stash.

Yeah.. there may be some kind of a vesting period for any pension.. meaning minimum number of years of service that are needed in order to be eligible for some level of pension, and the amount of the pension can have a variety of criteria for how much you get based on age, number of years served, rank, salary at the time of retirement and perhaps some other criteria that determines the amount...and sure there could be incentives to work longer to make more, but with bitcoin it might not necessarily make sense to work longer to make more but maybe just to quit early and just end up receiving the minimum pension or maybe like you suggest, there might be an insurance policy that can be paid into that could lock in amounts or help with eligibility and requirements.. or whatever.

With Bitcoin price hovering in the $17k region, one would need to have 589+ BTC to be able to securely self-retire with the equivalent of $10M+ of fiat.

Maybe it makes sense to use spot price to measure current status.. of fuck you status or various other measurements, but it still seems pretty safe (practical/reasonable) to use the 200-week moving average, as long as there is a bit of a delayed gratification element.. . and we had already gone over that 80 BTC brings a $2million valuation and so if we want to get to $10 million, then yeah we have to get to 400BTC then.. but surely, several times, Ivomm had already said that he expects it to be cheap to retire and blah blah blah.. so I cannot see why it would be reasonable to 5x the entry-level fuck you status... Sure double it if you are expecting some exotic lifestyle which still only brings that to 160 BTC currently.. presuming some kind of stagnation in the BTC price (getting stuck at the current 200-week moving average of $24.4k).. which may or may not happen.. does not seem to likely, but whatever.. anything is within the realm of possibilities, including BTC prices going to zero... which also seems like a no coiner wet dream and hardly a scenario that is very likely.

The fewer coins one has, the riskier it gets. Sometimes life makes these choices for us, e.g., being a coiner and losing your job enables/forces you to take more risks in attempting to use your coins to survive. But having a decent job makes it more difficult to quit (and increase risk), unless you have lots of coins (which reduce risk).

Yeah.. let's say that you thought that bitcoin prices would be more than $100k right now, so you kind of fucked up.  You also made some other mistakes, so you thought that you would be making reasonable progress towards getting to fuck you status, but you ONLY have 20 BTC.. so you thought that in 10 years, you would have enough.. but now you don't know if that is enough, so maybe you just have to work on getting to higher coin levels within your capabilities.. maybe in 10 years, you can accumulate another 2 BTC or something like that?  I don't know. .maybe I am trying to include too many variables in the supposed dilemma that Ivomm is currently feeling (which seems overly dramatic as I already mentioned a few times).

I don't agree with ivomm's "easy come, easy go" comment for someone's Bitcoin wealth. It depends on the individual.

When you fuck around and you don't know what you are doing, then it could become "easy come easy go." If you unreasonably frame your expectations in terms of "moon or die" blah blah blah, then that could transition into "easy come easy go" thoughts, too.

If you can't control your finances and are desperately craving to live the high life, then sure, you can spend millions in one year and lose everything. But it's not the same for everyone. I still own a Toyota, while I can easily buy a much more expensive car. But I don't need to. My priorities are different.

That's exactly true.  I like to tell a lot of stories about how frugal that I had been for many of my earlier years, and I think around 2010, I started to really feel abilities that my income was way higher than I was spending, so I started to feel a lot of abilities to spend, but I surely did not engage in the kinds of spending that a lot of my peers were doing in the 90s and 00s, that would have caused me not to get to such a position.. ..and even when I was moving into positions to be able to spend way more, I did not blow my whole wadd on luxurious items even though there have been increasing abilities to really spend a lot of money, even in recent times.  I bought some property and some new vehicles and some other stuff, but still way below what I could have bought.. which makes has been making it way easier to have that reserve to spend outrageously if I want or just to receive compounding effects of that right now...

...and in these days several of my peers will see that I will buy the meal for everyone and stuff like that, and even spend $10k or $20k or even some higher amount on some items without batting an eye, then the I might say that $20k of value that I just spent had only cost me about $500-ish to acquire... depending on the timing in how it was spent... and there are some other examples like that involving delayed gratification and living within your means for a decently long period of 20 years or longer can cause a lot of compounding effects later down the road, and so various splurgenings in current times.. are likely products of compounding deferred gratification from earlier years.. and even some deferred gratifications in recent times.. 

I had told the story of some of my bitcoin practices in 2015 to 2016, and when I first started to get used to selling BTC, I started to sell at $250 or so, and I would sell $5 worth if the BTC price went up $10 or something like that, and then I would buy back, and so I would make like $0.30 profit or some other menial amount... so I had started to practice a kind of BTC volatility insurance system that largely was a kind of token system, so even if we might imagine the BTC price going up to $2,500 (10x), my profits likely went up way more than 10x.. maybe even 20x to 30x.. which might be $6 profits or $9 profits.. and there are other examples like that in which there is a compounding effect that even can add up to thousands of dollars of seemingly free money... and most of that is from having a system that largely expects BTC prices to go up.. so there is not a lot of fucking around with trading and sales, but mostly BTC accumulation through buying, maintaining and having prudent volatility management systems.. that are kind of like insurance but not getting wrapped up in the BTC price having to go up, even though we largely see that the BTC price is up 17x if we use $1k as our average price per BTC, or we might even see that we have ways in which we might consider $250 as our average price of some of our BTC... which is just amazing if we think about getting those kinds of returns in less than 10 years... and one of the best ways to really profit financially and psychologically is to be able to have quite a bit of exercising of deferred gratification.

Taking into account that the above mentioned number of 589+ BTC will very likely drop significantly as Bitcoin price rises in the (near) future, HoDLing and/or DCA'ing becomes all the more important strategy for many of us low- to mid-level marine species out there. At a price of $100k+ (say, sometime in 2025), that number becomes 100- BTC, which makes things much easier for many of us.

Looking fwd to 2027+, when we will have so much fun reading these posts...  Cheesy

Yep.. it is absolutely amazing how the number of BTC required for various ways to define fuck you status is likely going to continue to go down.. sure there are no guarantees, but there is no real evidence to suggest that some variation of our historical pattern of BTC being amongst the best (if not the best) investment to continue into the future.. including 4 years from now or later.. .. of course, it may not even take that long, and surely 2027 could be another bear period, and we might be whining about BTC prices that make us wonder "why the fuck didn't I buy more BTC in 2022/2023?"  or "why was I whining so much back in 2022/2023 that I ONLY had 20 BTC, when current entry level fuck you status ONLY requires 6 BTC, so currently I actually have close to 4x entry-level fuck you status?".. .and perhaps other similar realizations that may well pay off if the proper kinds of preparations are happening now so that you do not get so dumb as to fuck away your BTC stash and ONLY end up with 1 or 2 BTC in 2027 and then wondering why BTC has not fulfilled you and has not brought you to fuck you status as you had expected blah  blah blah.. when you had fucked up your stash and you could have had 24 BTC by 2027, but instead you barely are struggling to have 1 or 2 BTC.. and wondering why entry-level fuck you status takes 6 BTC and some other reasons to whine about BTC not sufficiently or adequately fulfilling you.
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January 09, 2023, 04:38:00 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), Toxic2040 (1)

Why are you guys so negative? Bitcoin is going up. Fill up your bags and stop whining about having to work until your investment pays off. A long term investment is called such because it is long term.

Lets forget about the get rich quick dream and concentrate on the get rich with Bitcoin in the future dream.

We all know how long it took for Bitcoin to get where it is now, and the truth is, it is nowhere near where it will be in the future. So lets not give up hope and prepare to put those McDonalds hats back on (temporarily).
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January 09, 2023, 05:01:17 PM


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January 09, 2023, 05:06:33 PM
Merited by Paashaas (1)

Happy New Year jbreher!
Jimbo says to you
Buy when you can
Sell when you have to
If you really must
That's a part of the plan
We crouch for survival
'Til next bull's arrival
One day, we'll all understand
One day, we'll all understand
One day, we'll all understand
A voice we won't lose
Unfound, post-picnic re-found
Bear is on the loose
#haiku

Picnic bear is well loved in these here parts, even though much wow practices of BIG block bullshit over the earlier years.. poor widdo picnic bear... Cry Cry Cry. .. hopefully someone took a flippening over of the picnic table in order to knock some senses into that cute (but annoying) lil bear fellow.    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

[edited out]
I've been in bitcoin for years.
i have a long term position, and i do some trading with a small amount for fun & profit.

Ok.  Fair enough.

DCA feels more like a way of saving money not investing, like if you don't have 10K to throw at BTC, but you do have an extra 200$ a month you want to save then ya DCA...

I am not sure if it matters very much what you call it in terms of quibbling over the terms "savings" or "investing".. of course, bitcoin gets denigrated as being "gambling" too.. so sometimes the labels might end up going too far in terms of what points are trying to be made.

Maybe we need to clarify our hypothetical a bit?  I did allow Biodom to distract me a bit more than I would have wished when he not only reduced the amount of cashflow, but then he failed/refused to specify if there was a starting investment amount that should have also been included.

I am willing to go along with some of his changes, but at this point, our hypothetical seems to be working with an extra cashflow that can be used for investing that is $800 per month or $10k per year or $200 per week... of course $200 per week would end up being $10,400.. so the numbers could come out a wee bit different even in terms of how to frame (describe) cashflow.

Another thing that I had been trying to suggest is a starting point at the end of the 2013, which would have been starting to buy BTC at the top of that cycle which I was using December 1, 2013 as the start date.

So you are fucking around with the hypothetical if you are suggesting all of a sudden that $10k is available to invest right away when we might ONLY be able to start to calculate cash flow as $800 per month starting December 1, 2013.. sure maybe we can cheat and say that you already had the $800 that you had earned in November 2013 in order to start investing in bitcoin at $800 on December 1, 2013, but instead, some of you non-DCA folks want to suggest that you know that 2013 is the top, so therefore, you are going to wait with your $800 per month, and surely after 10 months you have $8k that you can invest and after 20 months you have $16k that you can invest. So how are you going to invest it?

Part of what I had been trying to suggest is that you are likely going to be able to afford to invest into bitcoin more aggressively if you DCA into it rather than the reservations that you might cause for yourself if you try to fuck around with timing... and I am not even suggesting all or nothing necessarily, but of course, each of us has other factors that we need to measure besides merely looking at cashflow... even though cashflow is a good starting point to try to ask what are you going to do and how are you supposedly going to be able to beat DCA in your strategies.. even if you try to suggest that DCA is more whimpy than your gambling techniques, when the facts likely are contrary to how you are framing the matter in terms of how aggressive DCA allows an investor to be relative to someone who is trying to be strategic about his/her BTC buys.  Yeah, I should not overly generalize, but I don't really feel that I need to comprise my viewpoint when i see quite a few examples of the strategizers fucking up and/or being way more whimpy than I have been able to be over my years of investing into BTC... but then they come in and say.. you should have done x, y or z.. you should have waited for the BTC price to fall, as if they know when the BTC price is going to fall, and part of the fact of the matter is that their bullshit waiting around has caused them to underinvest in bitcoin and get distracted into investing into other less performative nonsense.. and it does no even need to be shitcoins. Instead of investing in BTC, they are investing in various other assets like stocks and having an overly lean BTC allocation as compared with the DCAer.

if you have money to invest i believe a far better strategy is to figure out how much exposure your looking to get, say you want to invest ~10K$, you buy $2-5K right away, then you wait for dips to buy more, if your doing this in a bear market chances are you'll end up with a bag that is a bit heavier then you would of liked (but thats OK, you can rebalance during pumps ), if the market is bullish your first buy should be bigger, and you should be more aggressive buying the dips cuz chances are you wont get that full $10K invested. A 1 time all in buy isn't as crazy as some some people make it out to be, just don't be doing that kind of thing when price has gone up 300% in a few months....

I doubt that you are saying anything much different than my actual practice of dividing amounts available into three categories, which are lump sum, DCA and buying on dips... it is just a matter of apportioning those amounts in terms of other things going on in your investment portfolio and other investments that you might have.. which you are even conceding some portion of that still might involve some DCA.. but of course, if you hardly know anything about your asset, you still might not necessarily be able to determine how much of a bear market or bull market (or consolidation) period that you are in, so if you cannot figure it out then DCA may well allow for more aggressiveness without necessarily taking additional risks.

big stacks of fiat just sitting on the sidelines DCA'ing over years  sounds crazy to me.

So then you still might be talking about DCA.. so maybe you have a cashflow of $10k per year that is coming in, but you never let your cash reserves to go above $5k... so in essence, you have a DCA that gets triggered every 6 months, if you have not already spent that money within the 6 months because you do not necessarily want your cash reserves to build up too much.  You might be framing (or phrasing) the matter differently, but it is not as different than what you are making it out to be.

it only seems to make sense to DCA if you have no other choice, you have no speculative-high-risk-investment-money right now, but you can set aside X amount each month, in that case it would be crazy to put that money aside and and only invest once you have $5K saved up, in that case you "DCA".

It seems that you are wanting to impute way the fuck too much trading knowledge, financial management skills, and even asset awareness knowledge onto the vast majority of normies.  

The vast majority of normies are way better off starting out with DCA, and then learning as they go... and if they are able to improve on DCA, then that is great, but get the fuck started as soon as possible, and DCA allows normies to get the fuck started as soon as possible and to be way more aggressive with their investment approach than if they are waiting around trying to figure out whether we are in dip or a up or a sideways or whatever.. they are not going to know.. so just buy their $200 worth of BTC every week.. and forget about trying to figure it out.. and later if they are able to figure out more details and strategies then great, let them play around with their additional knowledge, but they may well want to keep their DCA going on, even if they might be supplementing their BTC accumulation strategies with some other approaches including lump sum investing and/or buying on dips.

Why are you guys so negative? Bitcoin is going up. Fill up your bags and stop whining about having to work until your investment pays off. A long term investment is called such because it is long term.

Lets forget about the get rich quick dream and concentrate on the get rich with Bitcoin in the future dream.

We all know how long it took for Bitcoin to get where it is now, and the truth is, it is nowhere near where it will be in the future. So lets not give up hope and prepare to put those McDonalds hats back on (temporarily).

I mentioned in another post of mine, that if I were a bitcoin newbie and I worked my ass off for the next 2-4 years to accumulate as much bitcoin as I reasonably would be able to, then I would likely ONLY be able to accumulate 5% to 10% of my current stash, and the upper end of that range is being quite generous.. probably closer to 5%.. so there is a lot of value that comes from the earlier the better, but a newbie to bitcoin cannot go back, and there is no real evidence that the investment thesis for bitcoin is substantially or materially weaker than it was in late 2013 when I first got started buying this crap.  Of course, I mean "crap" in a good way.
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January 09, 2023, 05:07:19 PM
Last edit: January 09, 2023, 05:32:01 PM by BitcoinBunny
Merited by Gachapin (1)

Bitcoin finally moves.

All the shitecoins move more.


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Quick buy Donkey Turd, you're missing out on Donkey Turds my friend. It has DAPS, NFTS, DEFI, WHADYAMACALLIT V2.1, POS, all rolled into one big turd token, and it's fast man! I just sent 100 Donkey Turds to my neighbour in exchange for 2 pizzas and he got them before he could even switch his oven on. Get it now! Only 1 million extra issued per hour, only!!! The CEO also owns an electric vehicle and he used to work for an ice cream shop on Iceland, so he knows what he is doing.
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January 09, 2023, 05:35:28 PM

Bitcoin finally moves.

All the shitecoins move more.


 Roll Eyes


🤡🌍


Quick buy Donkey Turd, you're missing out on Donkey Turds my friend. It has DAPS, NFTS, POS, all rolled into one big turd token. Get it now! Only 1 million extra issued per hour, only!!! The CEO also owns an electric vehicle and he used to work for an ice cream shop on Iceland, so he knows what he is doing.

I have this odd feeling that i am missing out, I better convert my BTC in Donkey Turd now before its too late
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January 09, 2023, 06:01:21 PM


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