Wait for Jorge's sleep time thingy and see if it holds... Don't forget it will fizzle if Gox is quiet as a church mouse for another week.
The positive to take from this, if Gox does come up with a positive announcement - it will go nuts. It's such a drag, lifting it, even slightly will produce huge jumps.
Looks like the prediction will be dead wrong again (less than 2 hours for the price to fall 240 CNY, from 3640 to 3396...)
But perhaps this will be another sleepless night in China, and I will be excused because of that.
As for what will happen when MtGOX unclogs the drain: note that they already said that withdrawals would be limiited for some time.
The question is what wil happen after that time. WIll they remove the limits, or declare insolvency?
Neither.
They will either go down or open up with limited withdrawals, in my humble opinion.
I think they probably will not disappear.
I have no doubt someone would probably buy it from MK, but I also reckon he
can't sell, as he probably will have some things to hide, and due diligence would find them.
So - it will open, but with restrictions. I think Andreas said 2-4 weeks was his guess, so within 2 weeks-ish we 'should' know if it is capitulation or a restricted opening.
With opportunities to sort out any solvency issues due to Gox's ability to buy their own exchanges coins so cheap, I can't see insolvency (unless they are completely stupid). So - let's wait and see.
I think it's better than 65/35 in favour of them opening, or I would have sold on Bitcoinbuilder by now.
For the market as a whole - Gox recovery will be pretty stellar, although it will itself be a wounded animal and may find not enough traders will want to risk it there in future, making it too tough to compete as they have done.
So - short term: Limited fix and a re-opening of sorts (maybe with reduced fees) - price goes up on all exchanges, but things are volatile.
- medium term Gox slides into irrelevance and has too little market share to really matter at all.
- long term MK sells or Gox disappears when any whiff of another problem shows up.
Poll
