Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Arcas]

Please explain what you find 'strong' about this 'support' at $530?

well

1) we have tested it 3 times now and not broken it  ( maybe sellers realize they are getting ripped off if they sell a bitcoin for less than that, no matter what FUD is going around)
2) may star daily candles, indicating disagreement on price...  (  no shit FUD is scaring poeple into selling, while anyone with half a brain knows bitcoin is going places. )
3) volume speaks volumes
4) because i say so.

This is irrelevant, but are you planning anything special for your big 10000?

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[MAbtc]

Please explain what you find 'strong' about this 'support' at $530?

well

1) we have tested it 3 times now and not broken it  ( maybe sellers realize they are getting ripped off if they sell a bitcoin for less than that, no matter what FUD is going around)
2) may star daily candles, indicating disagreement on price...  (  no shit FUD is scaring poeple into selling, while anyone with half a brain knows bitcoin is going places. )
3) volume speaks volumes
4) because i say so.

I was actually thinking that volume at every test of $530 was quite low. Even on the 9th, only daily volume of 70k. To me, looks like a local bottom only.

[MatTheCat]

1) we have tested it 3 times now and not broken it  ( maybe sellers realize they are getting ripped off if they sell a bitcoin for less than that, no matter what FUD is going around)
2) may star daily candles, indicating disagreement on price...  (  no shit FUD is scaring poeple into selling, while anyone with half a brain knows bitcoin is going places. )
3) volume speaks volumes
4) because i say so.

1) We tested $765 three times over a much longer time period....and then it broke.
2) ?
3) Yes, volume speaks volumes. Volume was large on price slide from $640 to $530, and has been very low on 'recovery'. Low volume on recovery from 17% price slide!? (sorry, but this is alarm bells for any financial asset)
4) What you have 'said so' has been proving itself consistently wrong for quite some time by now.

[aminorex]

Even on the 9th, only daily volume of 70k.

You mean on stamp.  42mm USD.  That's about 4 times the volume turning over on Gox now, and in the region of 0.5% of the total bitcoin marketcap.  That actually seems huge to me.

[MAbtc]

Even on the 9th, only daily volume of 70k.

You mean on stamp.  42mm USD.  That's about 4 times the volume turning over on Gox now, and 0.5% of the total bitcoin marketcap.

Gox is irrelevant. How does this compare to 136k on 12-17?

[solex]

I was actually thinking that volume at every test of $530 was quite low. Even on the 9th, only daily volume of 70k. To me, looks like a local bottom only.

It has to be a local bottom because the cycle low was $382 (stamp) with a very high volume of 137k.
Seems a similar situation to July last year when the medium-term low was $65 (gox) but the cycle low was $50 already.

[Richy_T]

You guys think there would be any interest in metal "paper wallets?" like take the info and encrypt it so I can't see it, then etch or engrave into metal (something they won't corrode.)

Wouldn't have to worry about paper degradation or such then.

I would think so. I think the security thing has already been addressed by Casascius so you may want to check his postings.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[TooDumbForBitcoin]

Transaction malleability is not a bug.

How nice of the core devs to respond so quickly to patch something that was not a bug.  A favor to a Bitcoin Foundation board member, perhaps?

[solex]

You guys think there would be any interest in metal "paper wallets?" like take the info and encrypt it so I can't see it, then etch or engrave into metal (something they won't corrode.)

Wouldn't have to worry about paper degradation or such then.

I would think so. I think the security thing has already been addressed by Casascius so you may want to check his postings.

Was discussed here:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=135769.msg1446682#msg1446682

[Syke]

I would suggest a hard-copy also. I don't quite trust electronic devices completely. At some point, I plan to do what someone else has done and make a wallet from steel stamped with the private key.

Send me your private key and I'll print it on a block on my 3D printer.

[adamstgBit]

1) we have tested it 3 times now and not broken it  ( maybe sellers realize they are getting ripped off if they sell a bitcoin for less than that, no matter what FUD is going around)
2) may star daily candles, indicating disagreement on price...  (  no shit FUD is scaring poeple into selling, while anyone with half a brain knows bitcoin is going places. )
3) volume speaks volumes
4) because i say so.

1) We tested $765 three times over a much longer time period....and then it broke.
2) ?
3) Yes, volume speaks volumes. Volume was large on price slide from $640 to $530, and has been very low on 'recovery'. Low volume on recovery from 17% price slide!? (sorry, but this is alarm bells for any financial asset)
4) What you have 'said so' has been proving itself consistently wrong for quite some time by now.

1) 765 would have held had it not been for extreme FUD, i remember sending out an update saying the down trend was showing signs of reversing, then chraily got arrested. and it all went downhill for there.
2) a large daily candle with a top and bottom tail ( indicating disagreement  on price)
3) on the first slide down, the 14th there was much more volume on the way back up.
4) I am deeply saddened by this unfortunate string of bad luck.

[Richy_T]

I would suggest a hard-copy also. I don't quite trust electronic devices completely. At some point, I plan to do what someone else has done and make a wallet from steel stamped with the private key.

Send me your private key and I'll print it on a block on my 3D printer.

I have a 3D printer. But I want something a bit more hardy than plastic. Plasma cut titanium might be an option.

[600watt]

Please explain what you find 'strong' about this 'support' at $530?

well

1) we have tested it 3 times now and not broken it  ( maybe sellers realize they are getting ripped off if they sell a bitcoin for less than that, no matter what FUD is going around)
2) may star daily candles, indicating disagreement on price...  (  no shit FUD is scaring poeple into selling, while anyone with half a brain knows bitcoin is going places. )
3) volume speaks volumes
4) because i say so.

+4

Sources confirm all of this. 

http://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXNASM130006_R30C13A5000000/

this japanese source confirmes it  

[MAbtc]

It's always just FUD. 

 

[fonzie]

More bad news:

http://www.coindesk.com/documents-goldman-sachs-discussing-bitcoin/

"New York-based global investment banking giant Goldman Sachs has completed an initial assessment of digital currencies that concluded they are currently too volatile for serious investors."

[tarmi]

It's always just FUD. 

 

indeed.

if 765 didnt hold because of fud, why are we at 550?

[MatTheCat]

) 765 would have held had it not been for extreme FUD, i remember sending out an update saying the down trend was showing signs of reversing, then chraily got arrested. and it all went downhill for there.
2) a large daily candle with a top and bottom tail ( indicating disagreement  on price)
3) on the first slide down, the 14th there was much more volume on the way back up.
4) I am deeply saddened by this unfortunate string of bad luck.

'Charlie Shrem got arrested therefore Bitcoin crashed through its support'

Seriously man,  

I stated on this forum that Bitcoin had formed a bearish wedge along that $765 support line, and that in 9/10 cases, we could expect a break to the downside from there. I got pelters from all the usual suspects but guess what, it happened just like all the text books said it probably would. Or did it!? Perhaps it was all just cos Charlie Shrem got arrested!  

If I wanted to, I could cherry pick the charts for little isolated signs that could be seen as bullish, if not for the context of everything else around about them. Fortunately I don't need to to do that as I am 0% in Bitcoin and therefore have no emotional bias distorting my view on the market.

if 765 didnt hold because of fud, why are we at 550?

Yet more FUD, of course.

[JorgeStolfi]

Warning - another dose of Chinese Slumber Methd stuff to follow shortly.

[JorgeStolfi]

Checking the Chinese Slumber Method predictions for feb/21

The prediction for today Feb/21 was again way off the mark:

Prediction posted on: Friday 2014-02-21, 01:35 UTC
Prediction valid for: Friday 2014-02-21, 19:00--19:59 UTC

Huobi's predicted price: 3772 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3425 CNY
Error: 347 CNY

Bitstamp's predicted price: 616 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 563 USD
Error: 50 USD

During most of the day the price was rising steadily, recovering from yesterday's fall and aiming straight towards the prediction. But around 14:00 UTC (22:00 China Standard Time) there was another sudden and significant drop to 3400, and was still there when the traders went to bed. 

The Huobi prediction in question is the rightmost blue rectangle on the chart below.  The light blue-gray rectangles are the previous predictions.  The orange and grey dots are the True and False Slumber Points, the mean prices at 19:00 UTC every day.  The orange line is the trend that was assumed for the prediction.


The following chart shows the Bitstamp prices and predictions. The orange and grey dots are Huobi's prices at 19:00 UTC every day, divided by R (6.40 for Feb/07--09, 6.12 for all other days).  The orange line is the trend used in the prediction, which is Huobi's trend divided by R.