Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JorgeStolfi]

It is really difficult to fix an insolvent business via software engineering.

[1714657827]

1714657827

[JorgeStolfi]

Warning: more Chinese Slumber Method stuff to follow.  You may want to read my next two posts with your eyes closed.

[JorgeStolfi]

Checking the Chinese Slumber Method predictions for Feb/22

Prediction posted on: Saturday 2014-02-22, 01:58 UTC
Prediction valid for: Saturday 2014-02-22, 19:00--19:59 UTC

The prediction for today (Saturday Feb/22) was again way off the mark.  However, in the measurement interval (03:00 -- 03:59 China time) there was still significant activity (1742 BTC traded).  Therefore, by the rules of the game, that is a False Slumber Point, and the prediction should be considered void.

Indeed, that interval came a couple of hours after a small rally, perhaps triggered by rumors that MtGOX was testing withdrawal software.

Anyway, here are the numbers:

Huobi's predicted price: 3396 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3621 CNY
Error: 225 CNY

Bitstamp's predicted price: 555 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 597 USD
Error: 42 USD

The Huobi prediction in question is the rightmost blue rectangle on the chart below.  The light blue-gray rectangles are the previous predictions.  The orange and grey dots are the True and False Slumber Points, the mean prices at 19:00 UTC every day.  The orange line is the trend that was assumed for the prediction.


The following chart shows the Bitstamp prices and predictions. The orange and grey dots are Huobi's prices at 19:00 UTC every day, divided by R = 6.12.  The orange line is the trend used in the prediction, which is Huobi's trend divided by R.

[Arcas]

I'm glad that Bitstamp is ignoring the price movement on MtGox for the most part.

It's not ignoring it.

$605 for most of this afternoon is pretty stable.

[JorgeStolfi]

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Sunday Feb/23

Today Feb/22, Huobi's volume for 19:00 -- 19:59 UTC (3:00--3:59 AM China Standard Time) was 1742 BTC, which, by the criteria I have been using, makes it a False Slumber Point.  Therefore, I still have only one valid data point (3425 CNY at Feb/21) for the new trend line that presumably started after the Second Karpeles Catastrople of Feb/20.

I will therefore assume the same trend line used for the last prediction, namely the straight line that goes though that point and has slope minus ~29 CNY per day.  For Bitstamp, as usual, I will use Huobi's prediction divided by R = 6.12.

Therefore:

Prediction valid for: Sunday 2014-02-23, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 3368 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 550 USD.



NOTE: The 95% confidence interval for both predictions is [ 0, +∞ ].

[virtualfaqs]

I took my profits even before the DDOS hit.  The rumour this rally is based on is bull fud and the market will be back close to what it was within 8 hours.

I sold a tiny bit myself, but I'm less confident than you are.

1.   It's Sunday in Japan. Gox doesn't do anything on weekends.

2. Gmaxwell has said the transactions are just standard Gox dust sweeping transactions.

3.  Gox is still today trying to spend immature coins and the transactions are failing as a result.

4.  Although the people on this forum appear to be living in the mistaken belief that insolvencies are resolved in a number of weeks, they aren't.  They grind out for years.  

5. The only decent hope for a rally in the short term is other good news outweighing Gox.  It's a Sunday.  Major announcements don't get made on Sundays.

6.  There is some hope for a good Neo announcement on Monday.  Until then risks are to the downside.  

Again, your big assumption is that Gox is insolvent. If you are wrong the rest of your list can be thrown out the window.

Wind - please explain to me why JPY withdrawals have a queue at least a month long.  

Dude. Everyone wants an explanation for everything and when they can't get one they make up their own. I don't have an explanation for you. But your have nothing but pure speculation to suggest insolvency.

Unless you can get me direct access to Mark for 24 hours then I will not attempt to speculate.

You can. But that doesn't mean you are any closer to the truth than anyone else.

Well fiat withdrawal problems help increase the BTC price so I'll exclude that. But everyone sending Mtgox deposits, maybe some whale realized this and figured they would try and take advantage of the situation. Everyone is following for now...

[virtualfaqs]

It's funny how one moves on to ever crazier things to trade - that bitcoinbuilder site has some pretty hilarious and predictable swings right now. Owner is making a killing at 2%, approaching 9000 GoxBTC volume in 24h.

It was great idea and he is getting paid for it. Pretty well paid.

He's not getting rich, but 4% of 9000 is 360btc profit. Good for him.

He is out there for few days already and got well more than 1000 BTC. Few days more and he'll be rich.

Thought he was making 2% ....

from each side?
Anyway this is somewhere from 40.000 to 200.000 $ per day (2%/4%/gox price/stamp price,  )  This is a lot... but he/she/they deserved it.

Good point. so 2% in Mtgox BTC and 2% in real BTC. Huge payday when Mtgox fixes BTC withdrawals for him. And the longer this goes, the more money BB makes. Conspiracy theory! 

[zyk]

I took my profits even before the DDOS hit.  The rumour this rally is based on is bull fud and the market will be back close to what it was within 8 hours.

I sold a tiny bit myself, but I'm less confident than you are.

1.   It's Sunday in Japan. Gox doesn't do anything on weekends.

2. Gmaxwell has said the transactions are just standard Gox dust sweeping transactions.

3.  Gox is still today trying to spend immature coins and the transactions are failing as a result.

4.  Although the people on this forum appear to be living in the mistaken belief that insolvencies are resolved in a number of weeks, they aren't.  They grind out for years.  

5. The only decent hope for a rally in the short term is other good news outweighing Gox.  It's a Sunday.  Major announcements don't get made on Sundays.

6.  There is some hope for a good Neo announcement on Monday.  Until then risks are to the downside.  

Again, your big assumption is that Gox is insolvent. If you are wrong the rest of your list can be thrown out the window.

Wind - please explain to me why JPY withdrawals have a queue at least a month long.  

Dude. Everyone wants an explanation for everything and when they can't get one they make up their own. I don't have an explanation for you. But your have nothing but pure speculation to suggest insolvency.

Unless you can get me direct access to Mark for 24 hours then I will not attempt to speculate.

You can. But that doesn't mean you are any closer to the truth than anyone else.

Anyone who dares to think thouroughly about who the hell is selling nearly 1 million bitcoins at Gox under 300 dollars

donesn´t need to speculate anymore !!  thats a no brainer as there are plenty of no brainers at bitcoinbuilder !

Of course insiders cannot sell there but its them who sell at Mt. Gox as they can´t sell at bitstamp without faking identity !

And who might know best about solvency .....those that are riding in the sunset or those who send even more money there

to help feeding the ponzi....?   Gox was criminal right from the getgo , now its cashing out time ---everybody making up fairytales

has an interest and serves as an useful idiot, who is complicit that even more money of bitcoin -community gets stolen !

[windjc]

I took my profits even before the DDOS hit.  The rumour this rally is based on is bull fud and the market will be back close to what it was within 8 hours.

I sold a tiny bit myself, but I'm less confident than you are.

1.   It's Sunday in Japan. Gox doesn't do anything on weekends.

2. Gmaxwell has said the transactions are just standard Gox dust sweeping transactions.

3.  Gox is still today trying to spend immature coins and the transactions are failing as a result.

4.  Although the people on this forum appear to be living in the mistaken belief that insolvencies are resolved in a number of weeks, they aren't.  They grind out for years.  

5. The only decent hope for a rally in the short term is other good news outweighing Gox.  It's a Sunday.  Major announcements don't get made on Sundays.

6.  There is some hope for a good Neo announcement on Monday.  Until then risks are to the downside.  

Again, your big assumption is that Gox is insolvent. If you are wrong the rest of your list can be thrown out the window.

Wind - please explain to me why JPY withdrawals have a queue at least a month long.  

Dude. Everyone wants an explanation for everything and when they can't get one they make up their own. I don't have an explanation for you. But your have nothing but pure speculation to suggest insolvency.

Unless you can get me direct access to Mark for 24 hours then I will not attempt to speculate.

You can. But that doesn't mean you are any closer to the truth than anyone else.

Anyone who dares to think thouroughly about who the hell is selling nearly 1 million bitcoins at Gox under 300 dollars

donesn´t need to speculate anymore !!  thats a no brainer as there are plenty of no brainers at bitcoinbuilder !

Of course insiders cannot sell there but its them who sell at Mt. Gox as they can´t sell at bitstamp without faking identity !

And who might know best about solvency .....those that are riding in the sunset or those who send even more money there

to help feeding the ponzi....?   Gox was criminal right from the getgo , now its cashing out time ---everybody making up fairytales

has an interest and serves as an useful idiot, who is complicit that even more money of bitcoin -community gets stolen !

Blah blah dee ba blah blah blabady blah blah.

[Vycid]

NOTE: The 95% confidence interval for both predictions is [ 0, +∞ ].

LOL

[N12]

A few observations with regards to goxUSD/goxBTC prices:

1) Even though the price has rallied, they are still nowhere reflective of the rates on bitcoinbuilder times bitstamp prices which should imply a price of currently perhaps 300.

2) emptygoxUSD haven't been able to be withdrawn since May or June 2013. The prospects for bitcoin withdrawals to be reopened, should Emptygox become functional again, should serve to increase the value of goxBTC vs. goxUSD because only they would be able to get out.

3) goxBTC are literally the only asset on MtGox that can be liquidated instantly via bitcoinbuilder even if you have to take a large haircut. This fundamental advantage stems from the fact that only the ownership of goxBTC can be transferred and thus sold, but not so for goxUSD.

All in all, it was probably pretty idiotic to value goxUSD 4-5x higher than mtgoxBTC for the sole reason of having a slightly easier time to sue, regardless of how their solvency stands.

I've said some of this before, but you guys were too busy reading Reddit and selling to me.

[Holliday]

All in all, it was probably pretty idiotic to value goxUSD 4-5x higher than mtgoxBTC for the sole reason of having a slightly easier time to sue, regardless of how their solvency stands.

Do ya think? LOL.

Of course, I don't put anything past someone who thinks it's a good idea to keep large amounts of Bitcoin on Gox.

[HairyMaclairy]

I took my profits even before the DDOS hit.  The rumour this rally is based on is bull fud and the market will be back close to what it was within 8 hours.

I sold a tiny bit myself, but I'm less confident than you are.

1.   It's Sunday in Japan. Gox doesn't do anything on weekends.

2. Gmaxwell has said the transactions are just standard Gox dust sweeping transactions.

3.  Gox is still today trying to spend immature coins and the transactions are failing as a result.

4.  Although the people on this forum appear to be living in the mistaken belief that insolvencies are resolved in a number of weeks, they aren't.  They grind out for years.  

5. The only decent hope for a rally in the short term is other good news outweighing Gox.  It's a Sunday.  Major announcements don't get made on Sundays.

6.  There is some hope for a good Neo announcement on Monday.  Until then risks are to the downside.  

Again, your big assumption is that Gox is insolvent. If you are wrong the rest of your list can be thrown out the window.

Wind - please explain to me why JPY withdrawals have a queue at least a month long.  

Dude. Everyone wants an explanation for everything and when they can't get one they make up their own. I don't have an explanation for you. But your have nothing but pure speculation to suggest insolvency.

Unless you can get me direct access to Mark for 24 hours then I will not attempt to speculate.

You can. But that doesn't mean you are any closer to the truth than anyone else.

Well fiat withdrawal problems help increase the BTC price so I'll exclude that. But everyone sending Mtgox deposits, maybe some whale realized this and figured they would try and take advantage of the situation. Everyone is following for now...

Ok I'll spell it out for you.  

1. JPY transactions are being made with at least a one month time lag.  

2.  If Gox had domestic banking problems the most likely outcome would be no transactions. Not a growing but functional queue.

3. Insolvency is defined as an inability to pay debts as and when they fall due.  Unless Gox has the money and is deliberately withholding it, it is by definition currently insolvent.  

4. There are only two possibilities with Gox JPY withdrawals:  Either Gox has the money and is deliberately withholding it or they are currently insolvent.  Neither is a good outcome for investors.

5.  There remains the possibility that everyone sending fiat to Gox to try to arbitrage will recapitalise it.  And Gox will reemerge from insolvency or what ever it's current state is.  Of course those funds remain at risk until Gox earnings from commission exceed what it owes to its arbitrage friends.  Until then it's position remains precarious.  

[zyk]

NOTE: The 95% confidence interval for both predictions is [ 0, +∞ ].

LOL

Please show me one panicked person who sold a bitcoin under 300 dollars at Gox -- there are none----


so they are 100 % bankrupt and all central exchanges are toast......how long the confidence interval in bitcoin will be lost

thats now up to speculation.  

[JorgeStolfi]

I would nominate Mark Karpeles to the Oscar for his superb acting in the movie /Honey, I Shrunk the Coins/.

Seriously though: by allowing deposits while suspending withdrawals, MtGOX became a scam site in my book.

Any sensible person would flee from MtGOX at the first opportunity.  Yet by posts in this and other threads, many still defend Mark and expect MtGOX to continue trading there once it resumes withdrawals.

I just learned a story about a 'bitcoin investment fund' in a certain Latin American country.  The fund took several thousand coins from clients,  promising large returns in BTC.  Then the owner claimed that the fund had been hacked an all the coins were stolen, and closed the fund.  The clients have not yet received their coins back.

What makes the story interesting is that that same person is the owner of that country's main bitcoin exchange.  And his clients see nothing wrong with that.

Why is there so much tolerance to dishonesty in the bitcoin community?

Does it have something to do with the libertarian philosophy, in some broad sense of the term? Perhaps those loyal clients think, "The guy is not a scammer, because anyone who lost money to his scam is stupid, and stupid people deserve to lose their money"?

[billyjoeallen]

Ukrainian currency is the Hyrvnia. GDP is $175 billion with less than $4,000 per capita. Jesus, those people are poor. Russia's warming up the tanks but waiting until the Olympics are over before asserting influence. The next 24 hours will be interesting.

[N12]

I forgot to mention one thing: MtGox has earned over 6k BTC the past two weeks. Assuming they lost an amount of user deposits, then their liabilities keep shrinking over time as long as people trade maniacally on high volume. Pretty funny.

[smoothie]

I took my profits even before the DDOS hit.  The rumour this rally is based on is bull fud and the market will be back close to what it was within 8 hours.

I sold a tiny bit myself, but I'm less confident than you are.

1.   It's Sunday in Japan. Gox doesn't do anything on weekends.

2. Gmaxwell has said the transactions are just standard Gox dust sweeping transactions.

3.  Gox is still today trying to spend immature coins and the transactions are failing as a result.

4.  Although the people on this forum appear to be living in the mistaken belief that insolvencies are resolved in a number of weeks, they aren't.  They grind out for years.  

5. The only decent hope for a rally in the short term is other good news outweighing Gox.  It's a Sunday.  Major announcements don't get made on Sundays.

6.  There is some hope for a good Neo announcement on Monday.  Until then risks are to the downside.  

Again, your big assumption is that Gox is insolvent. If you are wrong the rest of your list can be thrown out the window.

Wind - please explain to me why JPY withdrawals have a queue at least a month long.  

Dude. Everyone wants an explanation for everything and when they can't get one they make up their own. I don't have an explanation for you. But your have nothing but pure speculation to suggest insolvency.

Unless you can get me direct access to Mark for 24 hours then I will not attempt to speculate.

You can. But that doesn't mean you are any closer to the truth than anyone else.

Well fiat withdrawal problems help increase the BTC price so I'll exclude that. But everyone sending Mtgox deposits, maybe some whale realized this and figured they would try and take advantage of the situation. Everyone is following for now...

Ok I'll spell it out for you.  

1. JPY transactions are being made with at least a one month time lag.  

2.  If Gox had domestic banking problems the most likely outcome would be no transactions. Not a growing but functional queue.

3. Insolvency is defined as an inability to pay debts as and when they fall due.  Unless Gox has the money and is deliberately withholding it, it is by definition currently insolvent.  

4. There are only two possibilities with Gox JPY withdrawals:  Either Gox has the money and is deliberately withholding it or they are currently insolvent.  Neither is a good outcome for investors.

5.  There remains the possibility that everyone sending fiat to Gox to try to arbitrage will recapitalise it.  And Gox will reemerge from insolvency or what ever it's current state is.  Of course those funds remain at risk until Gox earnings from commission exceed what it owes to its arbitrage friends.  Until then it's position remains precarious.  

Anyone sending fiat or BTC to MTGOX is a fool.

[N12]

Really, smoothie? In the past few days, the following arbitrage opportunity has emerged: Send money to MtGox, buy up goxBTC, sell goxBTC at the going rate, liquidate the realBTC elsewhere => profit. If you can do it in a reasonable timeframe, then it's pretty good.

[zyk]

Really, smoothie? In the past few days, the following arbitrage opportunity has emerged: Send money to MtGox, buy up goxBTC, sell goxBTC at the going rate, liquidate the realBTC elsewhere => profit. If you can do it in a reasonable timeframe, then it's pretty good.

The more money is made by this arbitrage the emptier empty -Gox gets when the die is cast .