Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JorgeStolfi]

Since december, even a foreign tourist cannot pay for a hotel bill or meal in China with bitcoin.  So the bitcoin project is already dead in China.

Not dead. Merely in Chinese slumber.

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[JorgeStolfi]

Can't they force ISPs to block the protocol?

Not in any way that couldn't be gotten around in 3 nanoseconds. Protocol changes, encryption, side-channel communications, steganography, VPNs...
[/quote]

It seems that your definition of success is substantially more modest than mine, namely "at least some hackers will be able to use it".  Correct?

[empowering]

Ditto for the claim that Governments cannot stop bitcoin.

It must be a semantics issue which you're hung up on with regard to this issue. Governments cannot stop Bitcoin. They can ban it or otherwise criminalize it but that won't stop it from being used. I guess the only way we'd know is to give it a whirl.

My definition of "success" is "it is used by many people for ordinary payments because it is cheaper/faster/safer than using a bank or credit card". That will not happen if it illegal to use it.  

Since december, even a foreign tourist cannot pay for a hotel bill or meal in China with bitcoin.  So the bitcoin project is already dead in China.

The Chinese government still allows trading inside the exchanges only because they feel that it is harmless. If they saw a threat there, they could easily close the exchanges, and block access to the network if necessary.  

Again, I do not see how the blockchain could be maintained if the US government decided to ban bitcoin.

 Ask the movie industry how well stopping the pre release of films onto the net for the past decade has been going for them...and ditto for the music industry... also while you are at it ask Blockbuster shareholders how they feel about having sat on their asses staring at the rise of the internet and file sharing and streaming... and ask yourself who was the genius that stood in a boardroom at Blockbuster HQ and in letters to shareholders in the mid 2000's and said "I do not see that the internet is a threat to our business model" which is basically what must have happened and why every Blockbuster in the country has now gone...great work.  I watched two films tonight  one on Neflix and one on a famous "free" film site which is blocked by the ISP provider in this country... that really stopped me , errmm not... and that is nothing, childsplay (and when I say childsplay, with all the scriptkiddies around these days, I mean childsplay... and when those scriptkiddies grow up, they will want their Bitcoinz/cryptos, that much is for sure and they will know how to get them and protect them if needs be.. our schools are teaching them how to do it right now, and the rest they are learning/inventing themselves...the wheels never stop turning)

I really think that some people do NOT understand the internets and also another mistake again and again linear thinking..this year alone you will see products that will change the internet forever... trust me on that one...  you think the "internet battle" is only being fought by Bitcoin? far from it, in fact Bitcoin is a mere blip on the radar... the net you have now and the nets you will have in a few years... with the tech that's coming... there is no blocking anything... and actually there are a LOT more concerning things that a government will want to try and block before Bitcoin... you know "Fiat is backed by guns" is great.... how about "society is backed by 3d printers , printing guns to back our rights to not be pissed on from on high"  DO NOT GET ME WRONG I AM NOT SAYING THAT WITH ANY GLEE....NOT AT ALL!!! SCARY STUFF!  I am just firmly not tied to 2014 thinking , and I can see whats coming down the line ... Bitcoin is not going to be the numero problem.... 10 -20 years down the line.. this world is going to be very very very different.

DIY opensource bioengineering kit anyone?  (Now that is scary stuff and also coming to a reality near you in the next decade!)

[hmmmstrange]

Again, I do not see how the blockchain could be maintained if the US government decided to ban bitcoin.

I must not understand what you mean by "maintained" as there are tens of thousands of individuals worldwide, each with the knowledge to "maintain" the blockchain.

edit: I suspect we are being rolled by Jorge.

[Notanon]

My opinion isn't popular here, but fiat currencies are backed by national governments. Isn't that worth more than lumps of conductive metals?

Fait currencies are backed by guns. Our currency is backed by math. Which is more reliable?

Guns can jam and need ammo, maths doesn't.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Arcas]

Bitcoins aren't like Assault Rifles or Cocaine. If made illegal, bitcoins are next to useless.

[Richy_T]

Not in any way that couldn't be gotten around in 3 nanoseconds. Protocol changes, encryption, side-channel communications, steganography, VPNs...

It seems that your definition of success is substantially more modest than mine, namely "at least some hackers will be able to use it".  Correct?

Not unless they really work hard at it. In reality, all the complex stuff can be baked into the protocol as it is with Bittorrent and DHTs and distributed trackers.

The world is about to get hit with a whole lot of privacy protection software too with all the stuff the NSA and similar agencies are up to.

[Peter R]

Just one question:

You must admit that nobody can foresee the future with perfect clarity.  In 2018, bitcoin could be a dominant world currency, it could be an academic curiosity of a past failed experiment, or it could be something in between.  My question is how do you expect you'd feel if bitcoin is successful beyond all of our wildest hopes?  Will you look back, shrug, and say "oh well"?  Or will you be disappointed that some mental obstinance prevented you from hedging with 2 BTC just in case?

As I wrote in that long post, I wish the success of the bitcoin project (providing an internet payment method that is safe etc.)  So obviously I will be very happy if it succeeds.

But I presume that by "successful" you mean "1 bitcoin (not 1 dogecoin) will be worth a billion dollars".  In that case I will probably feel a bit bad for not having bought one BTC today. Just as I feel a bit bad that I did not buy Apple or Google stock when it was cheap.  Or Enron or Worldcom or OGX at the IPO, and then sold at the peak.

However, if I ever become convinced that bitcoin will succeed in that sense, I can always get a loan and buy one when the price gets to a million dollars.  I don't think I will feel too bad for having made only a $999,000,000 profit, instead of a $999,999,000 profit.  

That was my question.  Joehal quoted me because he wanted to hear your answer too.  

I thought your response was interesting because I've had friends say exactly the same thing.  Basically: "they'll buy in in the future if it looks like it will be successful."  But these are the same friends who wished they got in earlier!  In fact, Jorge, even you said you thought bitcoin was a good investment several years ago, if only you had known about it then.  

It sounds like what you are saying is that bitcoin was a good investment in the past [at a lower price], and it may be a good investment in the future [at a higher price], but it is not a good investment now [even just 2 BTC as a hedge].  Is this correct?

....

It just hit me.  

PREDICTION: JorgeStolfi buys a few bitcoins if we pass the all-time high and continue to move upwards in price.

There must be a bunch of people like Jorge who are fascinated by bitcoin, feel they learned about it too late, realize that it could go much higher, but are presently skeptical and feel it is a bad investment now.  The next growth spurt begins when we pass the previous all-time-high and these people buy in, realizing that bitcoin may have just become a good investment all of a sudden.  

The price rise draws in media attention and more and more bandwagon jumpers hop on board.  Jorge Stolfi is sitting pretty because he got in at the start, but people keep pilling in and pilling in.  More smart people like Jorge hear about bitcoin from this media blitz, research it, and again feel that it is too late for them as obviously the "bubble is about to burst."  One growth cycle later and another JorgeStolfi is born.  Of course our current Jorge Stolfi is a wealthier man at this point.

[aminorex]

My definition of "success" is "it is used by many people for ordinary payments because it is cheaper/faster/safer than using a bank or credit card". That will not happen if it illegal to use it. 

Bitcoin could be wildly successful if it were never used by anyone but a small group of service providers.  In this case, by wildly successful, I mean "make me crazy rich".  More likely if everyone uses it of course, but still quite possible.  

Just the international remittances, man.  Nothing else.  That one market can be dominated in 2 years if the right player executes on it, and it's enough to take us past 20k.  It would even work if it were illegal -- which it obviously is not and will not be, so that's just a red herring anyhow.

Indeed I'd like people to use Bitcoin like the Johan uses hummus.  Thing is, bitcoin is so useful for so many things, that it can utterly fail at a zillion things, and still be wildly successful, by some meaningful criterion.  Clearly it will not be wildly successful by all meaningful criteria -- the reductio is trivial.  I'd like to see it do lots of unlikely things.  And in fact it will do some unlikely things.

[virtualfaqs]

Just one question:

You must admit that nobody can foresee the future with perfect clarity.  In 2018, bitcoin could be a dominant world currency, it could be an academic curiosity of a past failed experiment, or it could be something in between.  My question is how do you expect you'd feel if bitcoin is successful beyond all of our wildest hopes?  Will you look back, shrug, and say "oh well"?  Or will you be disappointed that some mental obstinance prevented you from hedging with 2 BTC just in case?

As I wrote in that long post, I wish the success of the bitcoin project (providing an internet payment method that is safe etc.)  So obviously I will be very happy if it succeeds.

But I presume that by "successful" you mean "1 bitcoin (not 1 dogecoin) will be worth a billion dollars".  In that case I will probably feel a bit bad for not having bought one BTC today. Just as I feel a bit bad that I did not buy Apple or Google stock when it was cheap.  Or Enron or Worldcom or OGX at the IPO, and then sold at the peak.

However, if I ever become convinced that bitcoin will succeed in that sense, I can always get a loan and buy one when the price gets to a million dollars.  I don't think I will feel too bad for having made only a $999,000,000 profit, instead of a $999,999,000 profit.  

That was my question.  Joehal quoted me because he wanted to hear your answer too.  

I thought your response was interesting because I've had friends say exactly the same thing.  Basically: "they'll buy in in the future if it looks like it will be successful."  But these are the same friends who wished they got in earlier!  In fact, Jorge, even you said you thought bitcoin was a good investment several years ago, if only you had known about it then.  

It sounds like what you are saying is that bitcoin was a good investment in the past [at a lower price], and it may be a good investment in the future [at a higher price], but it is not a good investment now [even just 2 BTC as a hedge].  Is this correct?

....

It just hit me.  

PREDICTION: JorgeStolfi buys a few bitcoins if we pass the all-time high and continue to move upwards in price.

There must be a bunch of people like Jorge who are fascinated by bitcoin, feel they learned about it too late, realize that it could go much higher, but are presently skeptical and feel it is a bad investment now.  The next growth spurt begins when we pass the previous all-time-high and these people buy in, realizing that bitcoin may have just become a good investment all of a sudden.  

The price rise draws in media attention and more and more bandwagon jumpers hop on board.  Jorge Stolfi is sitting pretty because he got in at the start, but people keep pilling in and pilling in.  More smart people like Jorge hear about bitcoin from this media blitz, research it, and again feel that it is too late for them as obviously the "bubble is about to burst."  One growth cycle later and another JorgeStolfi is born.  Of course our current Jorge Stolfi is a wealthier man at this point.

I don't think Jorge will ever buy. If it's successful, then the price is too high and he'll think it's overvalued. If price drops, then it's not a good investment. Now apply that to every price and situation and there's never a good time to buy for them.

[JorgeStolfi]

Even you said that you thought bitcoin was a good investment a few years ago, had you known about it back then.
It sounds like what you are saying is that bitcoin was a good investment in the past [at a lower price], and it may be a good investment in the future [at a higher price], but it is not a good investment now [even just 1 or 2 BTC as a hedge].  Is this correct?

When you are choosing where to invest, a "good investment" is one that has expected returns of inflation plus 5% or so.   An investment that has negative expected returns is a bad investment.  These labels do not change if, after the fact, the "good investment" turns out to be a flop and the "bad investment" yields gold.

For example,  buying a lottery ticket is a bad investment, a foolish decision; even it wins the jackpot, that would still be a foolish decision --- that happened to pay out, but only by amazing luck.

I wasn't paying attention to bitcoin before last November.  Buying some may have been a good investment then, if there was reason to belive that the market would expand and therefore the price would go up.   Right now, that epectation is not warranted, as I see it.

[aminorex]

There must be a bunch of people like Jorge who are fascinated by bitcoin, feel they learned about it too late, realize that it could go much higher, but are presently skeptical and feel it is a bad investment now.  The next growth spurt begins when we pass the previous all-time-high and these people buy in, realizing that bitcoin may have just become a good investment all of a sudden.  

I definitely went through that, in April 2013.  Embarrassing, in retrospect.  I was on the cypherpunks list in 1994 for Pete's sake!  I should have mined block 79.  But life got in the way.  When I first heard about bitcoin in 2009 I put off investigating because I was so overworked.  That continued until the press covered the April spike.
Then I hit it hard, but I made all the classic mistakes.  Just a little more conviction and a few less missteps and I'd have (at least) an order of magnitude more coins than I do today.  Perhaps Jorge will feel the same way about his x20 smaller treasure one day.

Today I would counsel people to get in during capitulation.  Catch the knife.  DCA.  Whatever.  Just get in.  Watch your fiat burn.  Pay no attention to it.  Just stack coins. It's not like fiat is going to do you any good anyhow.  But if you get crazy rich, you can actually change the world for the better.

Sad though, that so many evil people have taken so many coins.

[Peter R]

I don't think Jorge will ever buy. If it's successful, then the price is too high and he'll think it's overvalued. If price drops, then it's not a good investment. Now apply that to every price and situation and there's never a good time to buy for them.

That's what I thought until 10 minutes ago.  But now I think I understand the dynamic better.  Jorge wants to believe.  If we pass the previous all-time high, he will decide to buy a few coins, as the logic will suddenly make sense.  It is people like him who become the impetus for the next growth spurt.  

[JorgeStolfi]

I don't think Jorge will ever buy.

I don't think either.  As I said before, I do not like gambling, even when the odds seem favorable.

[empowering]

I don't think Jorge will ever buy.

I don't think either.  As I said before, I do not like gambling, even when the odds seem favorable.

Life is a gamble Jorge...

[JorgeStolfi]

(I don know whether I should be flattered by having so much attention focused on my person.  Perhaps I should start a separate "Jorgeology" thread?   )

[Peter R]

There must be a bunch of people like Jorge who are fascinated by bitcoin, feel they learned about it too late, realize that it could go much higher, but are presently skeptical and feel it is a bad investment now.  The next growth spurt begins when we pass the previous all-time-high and these people buy in, realizing that bitcoin may have just become a good investment all of a sudden.  

I definitely went through that, in April 2013.  Embarrassing, in retrospect.  I was on the cypherpunks list in 1994 for Pete's sake!  I should have mined block 79.  But life got in the way.  When I first heard about bitcoin in 2009 I put off investigating because I was so overworked.  That continued until the press covered the April spike.
Then I hit it hard, but I made all the classic mistakes.  Just a little more conviction and a few less missteps and I'd have (at least) an order of magnitude more coins than I do today.  Perhaps Jorge will feel the same way about his x20 smaller treasure one day.

Today I would counsel people to get in during capitulation.  Catch the knife.  DCA.  Whatever.  Just get in.  Watch your fiat burn.  Pay no attention to it.  Just stack coins. It's not like fiat is going to do you any good anyhow.  But if you get crazy rich, you can actually change the world for the better.

I think most here can share stories about how we could have had so many more coins, had we been more proactive/open-minded/etc/etc.  

Believe it or not, my mom sent me a link to a story about bitcoin from some obscure "new age" website in the spring of 2010!  She "wanted to buy $100 just in case."  

I was too arrogant to even read the article!  

[Davyd05]

There must be a bunch of people like Jorge who are fascinated by bitcoin, feel they learned about it too late, realize that it could go much higher, but are presently skeptical and feel it is a bad investment now.  The next growth spurt begins when we pass the previous all-time-high and these people buy in, realizing that bitcoin may have just become a good investment all of a sudden.  

I definitely went through that, in April 2013.  Embarrassing, in retrospect.  I was on the cypherpunks list in 1994 for Pete's sake!  I should have mined block 79.  But life got in the way.  When I first heard about bitcoin in 2009 I put off investigating because I was so overworked.  That continued until the press covered the April spike.
Then I hit it hard, but I made all the classic mistakes.  Just a little more conviction and a few less missteps and I'd have (at least) an order of magnitude more coins than I do today.  Perhaps Jorge will feel the same way about his x20 smaller treasure one day.

Today I would counsel people to get in during capitulation.  Catch the knife.  DCA.  Whatever.  Just get in.  Watch your fiat burn.  Pay no attention to it.  Just stack coins. It's not like fiat is going to do you any good anyhow.  But if you get crazy rich, you can actually change the world for the better.

I think most here can share stories about how we could have had so many more coins, had we been more proactive/open-minded/etc/etc.  

Believe it or not, my mom sent me a link to a story about bitcoin from some obscure "new age" website in the spring of 2010!  She "wanted to buy $100 just in case."  

I was too arrogant to even read the article!  

I couldn't haggle the price down 20-30 bucks on the 5970s on craiglist and gave up on making a miner. wasn't even thinking about direct speculation.. have to really observe all aspects of an opportunity.

[virtualfaqs]

I don't think Jorge will ever buy.

I don't think either.  As I said before, I do not like gambling, even when the odds seem favorable.

When the odds seem favorable it's no longer gambling at least that's my definition. I know people who still insist 99% chance of winning is still gambling.  

I don't think Jorge will ever buy. If it's successful, then the price is too high and he'll think it's overvalued. If price drops, then it's not a good investment. Now apply that to every price and situation and there's never a good time to buy for them.

That's what I thought until 10 minutes ago.  But now I think I understand the dynamic better.  Jorge wants to believe.  If we pass the previous all-time high, he will decide to buy a few coins, as the logic will suddenly make sense.  It is people like him who become the impetus for the next growth spurt.  

Few coins? Jorge could buy 0.001 right now. That's the beautify of BTC - infinitely divisible. I sold 0.02 to someone who knew nothing about BTC just because she heard about skyrocketing price. I told her to buy with caution but she kept saying it's only $10. (I gave her a discount at the time.) So yea...