Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[yrtrnc]

Any news on when mark will announce his news?

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[fonzie]

we're going below 500.

We´ll visit 600-620$ first. Then it´s time to short again

[billyjoeallen]

we're going below 500.

We're going below your mom.

[ShroomsKit_Disgrace]

we're going below 500.

We're going below your mom.

Is that so much HATE? It looks like  ShroomsKit shadow has corrupted your soul!!! 

[FTWbitcoinFTW]

I don't have idea where to put my bids.

we're going below 500.

Let me guess, yours bids are below 500 ??  

[fonzie]

It seems like Bitfinex is doin much more Volume than Bitstamp in the last days.

[billyjoeallen]

we're going below 500.

We're going below your mom.

Is that so much HATE? It looks like  ShroomsKit shadow has corrupted your soul!!! 

Not at all. I love going below his mom.

[oda.krell]

bears dumping from the shadows again

Everyone's just trying to get back in lower. Friday being payday for many, I doubt there will be an opportunity as great as yesterday's.

you call yesterday's 530 $ an opportunity?

all I saw yesterday was weak support, no buying frenzy, and no volume.

400s here we come!

It depends on what time scale one thinks of.

I can see us above 530 for another few days (although I wouldn't bet on it), so buying back at 530 wasn't necessarily a bad move, but I also don't think the bear market is over yet. Agree, we will probably go sub-500 at some point in the near future (<1 month)

[Speedie]

I know nothing about TA but is that a "head and shoulders" forming on 15m chart on stamp? That is supposed to be bullish I believe?

Inverse H&S, yes. We'd need to hold $560 and then break out above $590 with a surge in volume. Measured target in that scenario would be $650 calculated as $590 neckline + ($590 neckline - $530 head).

Thanks for the explanation! Now I feel a bit less dumb. Seeing there seems to have just been a 1K+ btc dump on stamp I assume it's safe to say that we didn't break out, but break down. So it was a fake Head & shoulders! Gotta watch out for that, you'll get dandruff.

You're welcome. $560 held so the pattern is still valid, however we'd need to drive up from here and then break through $590 with gusto volume-wise. Hard to see that happening absent Gox unGoxing itself.

On the plus side I now have a substitute in my lexicon for the F word    

[spooderman]

I know nothing about TA but is that a "head and shoulders" forming on 15m chart on stamp? That is supposed to be bullish I believe?

Inverse H&S, yes. We'd need to hold $560 and then break out above $590 with a surge in volume. Measured target in that scenario would be $650 calculated as $590 neckline + ($590 neckline - $530 head).

Thanks for the explanation! Now I feel a bit less dumb. Seeing there seems to have just been a 1K+ btc dump on stamp I assume it's safe to say that we didn't break out, but break down. So it was a fake Head & shoulders! Gotta watch out for that, you'll get dandruff.

You're welcome. $560 held so the pattern is still valid, however we'd need to drive up from here and then break through $590 with gusto volume-wise. Hard to see that happening absent Gox unGoxing itself.

On the plus side I now have a substitute in my lexicon for the F word    

oh for gox sake!

[dreamspark]

Let me guess, yours bids are below 500 ??  

 

[ErisDiscordia]

I know nothing about TA but is that a "head and shoulders" forming on 15m chart on stamp? That is supposed to be bullish I believe?

Inverse H&S, yes. We'd need to hold $560 and then break out above $590 with a surge in volume. Measured target in that scenario would be $650 calculated as $590 neckline + ($590 neckline - $530 head).

Thanks for the explanation! Now I feel a bit less dumb. Seeing there seems to have just been a 1K+ btc dump on stamp I assume it's safe to say that we didn't break out, but break down. So it was a fake Head & shoulders! Gotta watch out for that, you'll get dandruff.

You're welcome. $560 held so the pattern is still valid, however we'd need to drive up from here and then break through $590 with gusto volume-wise. Hard to see that happening absent Gox unGoxing itself.

On the plus side I now have a substitute in my lexicon for the F word    

I see. So as long as we don't break below 560 (the shoulders) the pattern hasn't broken and the scenario might still play out. TBH I also don't see this as very likely but hey bottoms are due when the least amount of people expect them, aren't they?

Watching with interest. My feeling is that we might see the bottom soon, or that we might have already seen it at 530 (less likely than the first option imo). I'm interested to see how right/wrong my feeling is.

[Speedie]

I know nothing about TA but is that a "head and shoulders" forming on 15m chart on stamp? That is supposed to be bullish I believe?

Inverse H&S, yes. We'd need to hold $560 and then break out above $590 with a surge in volume. Measured target in that scenario would be $650 calculated as $590 neckline + ($590 neckline - $530 head).

Thanks for the explanation! Now I feel a bit less dumb. Seeing there seems to have just been a 1K+ btc dump on stamp I assume it's safe to say that we didn't break out, but break down. So it was a fake Head & shoulders! Gotta watch out for that, you'll get dandruff.

You're welcome. $560 held so the pattern is still valid, however we'd need to drive up from here and then break through $590 with gusto volume-wise. Hard to see that happening absent Gox unGoxing itself.

On the plus side I now have a substitute in my lexicon for the F word    

oh for gox sake!

Better still, most other drivers are going to have no idea what you mean when you yell at them to go Gox themselves and stop driving like old people Gox.

[dreamspark]

I thin k billyjoeallen wants to give fonzies mom a goxing by the sounds of it

[Richy_T]

OK, again, here is what I would do if I had to safely store several hundred thousand bitcoins that my clients gave me for safekeeping. 

First, I would create a dozen new addresses and distribute the bitcoins evenly among them.  I do not believe in trapdoor functions, and I know what NSA did to that random number generator; so I instead of any "modern" encryption I would use the old and guaranteed one-time-pad method. I would generate a file of truly random bits (say, extracted from the microphone signal), and XOR it with the private keys.  Then I would copy the result to a pen drive, check that the copy succeded, safely remove the pendrive (see, I learned my lesson!) I would repeat with a second pendrive and give it to my partner.  Then each of us would go to a different bank, on separate cars, and store his pendrive in a safe deposit box. Only then I would go back and reformat the hard drive of my computer.


Do I really need to add the "stupid smiley" here?)

I would suggest a hard-copy also. I don't quite trust electronic devices completely. At some point, I plan to do what someone else has done and make a wallet from steel stamped with the private key.

[fcmatt]

Today on #bitcoin

gmaxwell: wumpus: yea, I understand they had timed automatic reissues... Sad this was also something I didn't know prior to monday before last and is one of the other reasons my "they couldn't have lost much!" position softened to "I have no freeking clue."
alpha125: gmaxwell: where did you find out abotu the automatic reissues?
gmaxwell: alpha125: from mtgox staff and magicaltux ... I had assumed previously that any reissues were manual via customer support but apparently it was just timed.
gmaxwell: you'll also note that they've kept increasing their fees and then even mad paying fees mandatory.
gmaxwell: This suggested to me that they totally misunderstood their problems. (and— I reported that I believed this months ago too)
gmaxwell: e.g. they noticed lots of txn getting stuck, they didn't understand it was because they were producing invalid txn (even though it was reported to them) and so they thought it was just 'full blocks'
gmaxwell: and they increased their fees from 0.0001 to 0.0005 — which was enough to may more than virtually every txn— and then later to 0.001 which is basically astronomic. And then they made it mandatory.
gmaxwell: of course their stalled txn had nothing to do with fees.

Edit: Just to clarify, only quoted relevant parts (maybe I should have inserted "[...]" where applicable). Full text here: http://pastebin.com/DaSph9uT

[Davyd05]

Today on #bitcoin

gmaxwell: wumpus: yea, I understand they had timed automatic reissues... Sad this was also something I didn't know prior to monday before last and is one of the other reasons my "they couldn't have lost much!" position softened to "I have no freeking clue."
alpha125: gmaxwell: where did you find out abotu the automatic reissues?
gmaxwell: alpha125: from mtgox staff and magicaltux ... I had assumed previously that any reissues were manual via customer support but apparently it was just timed.
gmaxwell: you'll also note that they've kept increasing their fees and then even mad paying fees mandatory.
gmaxwell: This suggested to me that they totally misunderstood their problems. (and— I reported that I believed this months ago too)
gmaxwell: e.g. they noticed lots of txn getting stuck, they didn't understand it was because they were producing invalid txn (even though it was reported to them) and so they thought it was just 'full blocks'
gmaxwell: and they increased their fees from 0.0001 to 0.0005 — which was enough to may more than virtually every txn— and then later to 0.001 which is basically astronomic. And then they made it mandatory.
gmaxwell: of course their stalled txn had nothing to do with fees.

Edit: Just to clarify, only quoted relevant parts (maybe I should have inserted "[...]" where applicable). Full text here: http://pastebin.com/DaSph9uT

that and its an unverified pastebin

[Rampion]

Today on #bitcoin

gmaxwell: wumpus: yea, I understand they had timed automatic reissues... Sad this was also something I didn't know prior to monday before last and is one of the other reasons my "they couldn't have lost much!" position softened to "I have no freeking clue."
alpha125: gmaxwell: where did you find out abotu the automatic reissues?
gmaxwell: alpha125: from mtgox staff and magicaltux ... I had assumed previously that any reissues were manual via customer support but apparently it was just timed.
gmaxwell: you'll also note that they've kept increasing their fees and then even mad paying fees mandatory.
gmaxwell: This suggested to me that they totally misunderstood their problems. (and— I reported that I believed this months ago too)
gmaxwell: e.g. they noticed lots of txn getting stuck, they didn't understand it was because they were producing invalid txn (even though it was reported to them) and so they thought it was just 'full blocks'
gmaxwell: and they increased their fees from 0.0001 to 0.0005 — which was enough to may more than virtually every txn— and then later to 0.001 which is basically astronomic. And then they made it mandatory.
gmaxwell: of course their stalled txn had nothing to do with fees.

Edit: Just to clarify, only quoted relevant parts (maybe I should have inserted "[...]" where applicable). Full text here: http://pastebin.com/DaSph9uT

that and its an unverified pastebin

I can verify that pastebin. I witnessed that discussion live on #bitcoin (Freenode). It's legit.

[seleme]

I don't have idea where to put my bids.

we're going below 500.

Let me guess, yours bids are below 500 ??  

you don't need to be academic to figure that out

So, yes, they're below 500 $ for now (though I bought half yesterday with average of 550 or so) but things change, we'll see

[Speedie]

I know nothing about TA but is that a "head and shoulders" forming on 15m chart on stamp? That is supposed to be bullish I believe?

Inverse H&S, yes. We'd need to hold $560 and then break out above $590 with a surge in volume. Measured target in that scenario would be $650 calculated as $590 neckline + ($590 neckline - $530 head).

Thanks for the explanation! Now I feel a bit less dumb. Seeing there seems to have just been a 1K+ btc dump on stamp I assume it's safe to say that we didn't break out, but break down. So it was a fake Head & shoulders! Gotta watch out for that, you'll get dandruff.

You're welcome. $560 held so the pattern is still valid, however we'd need to drive up from here and then break through $590 with gusto volume-wise. Hard to see that happening absent Gox unGoxing itself.

On the plus side I now have a substitute in my lexicon for the F word    

I see. So as long as we don't break below 560 (the shoulders) the pattern hasn't broken and the scenario might still play out. TBH I also don't see this as very likely but hey bottoms are due when the least amount of people expect them, aren't they?

Watching with interest. My feeling is that we might see the bottom soon, or that we might have already seen it at 530 (less likely than the first option imo). I'm interested to see how right/wrong my feeling is.

There might be more than a kernel of truth in the bolded part. I've been reading this thread with great interest during the recent turbulence, and it seems hardly anyone can come up with a bullish scenario for the possible Gox resolutions. Gox goes under = loss of confidence and sell-off. Gox allows limited withdrawals = partial loss of confidence plus selling of the released coins. Gox allows full unlimited withdrawals = selling of the released coins.

Makes you wonder if everyone is already positioned for a negative outcome. When everyone runs to the same side of the boat, it tends to capsize.