Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[fonzie]

I know nothing about TA but is that a "head and shoulders" forming on 15m chart on stamp? That is supposed to be bullish I believe?

Inverse H&S, yes. We'd need to hold $560 and then break out above $590 with a surge in volume. Measured target in that scenario would be $650 calculated as $590 neckline + ($590 neckline - $530 head).

Thanks for the explanation! Now I feel a bit less dumb. Seeing there seems to have just been a 1K+ btc dump on stamp I assume it's safe to say that we didn't break out, but break down. So it was a fake Head & shoulders! Gotta watch out for that, you'll get dandruff.

You're welcome. $560 held so the pattern is still valid, however we'd need to drive up from here and then break through $590 with gusto volume-wise. Hard to see that happening absent Gox unGoxing itself.

On the plus side I now have a substitute in my lexicon for the F word    

I see. So as long as we don't break below 560 (the shoulders) the pattern hasn't broken and the scenario might still play out. TBH I also don't see this as very likely but hey bottoms are due when the least amount of people expect them, aren't they?

Watching with interest. My feeling is that we might see the bottom soon, or that we might have already seen it at 530 (less likely than the first option imo). I'm interested to see how right/wrong my feeling is.

There might be more than a kernel of truth in the bolded part. I've been reading this thread with great interest during the recent turbulence, and it seems hardly anyone can come up with a bullish scenario for the possible Gox resolutions. Gox goes under = loss of confidence and sell-off. Gox allows limited withdrawals = partial loss of confidence plus selling of the released coins. Gox allows full unlimited withdrawals = selling of the released coins.

Makes you wonder if everyone is already positioned for a negative outcome. When everyone runs to the same side of the boat, it tends to capsize.

Well i´m long and bullish for at least 1-2 days 

[1714619422]

1714619422

[Richy_T]

I am surprised that several people failed to see the "tiny" flaw in my "absolutely secure" cold  storage recipe, and called me retard or something.

Maybe people just assumed that you weren't actually stupid and would have performed your missing step but just failed to mention it since you appeared to be describing in outline, not specifics.

[molecular]

Well i´m long and bullish for at least 1-2 days 

Well i´m long and bullish for at least 3 years 

[Richy_T]

oh for gox sake!

Choo Choo Mother-Goxer!

[JorgeStolfi]

Maybe people just assumed that you weren't actually stupid and would have performed your missing step but just failed to mention it since you appeared to be describing in outline, not specifics.

OK then, sorry.  (Made that same mistake, again...  )

[spooderman]

Today on #bitcoin

gmaxwell: wumpus: yea, I understand they had timed automatic reissues... Sad this was also something I didn't know prior to monday before last and is one of the other reasons my "they couldn't have lost much!" position softened to "I have no freeking clue."
alpha125: gmaxwell: where did you find out abotu the automatic reissues?
gmaxwell: alpha125: from mtgox staff and magicaltux ... I had assumed previously that any reissues were manual via customer support but apparently it was just timed.
gmaxwell: you'll also note that they've kept increasing their fees and then even mad paying fees mandatory.
gmaxwell: This suggested to me that they totally misunderstood their problems. (and— I reported that I believed this months ago too)
gmaxwell: e.g. they noticed lots of txn getting stuck, they didn't understand it was because they were producing invalid txn (even though it was reported to them) and so they thought it was just 'full blocks'
gmaxwell: and they increased their fees from 0.0001 to 0.0005 — which was enough to may more than virtually every txn— and then later to 0.001 which is basically astronomic. And then they made it mandatory.
gmaxwell: of course their stalled txn had nothing to do with fees.

Edit: Just to clarify, only quoted relevant parts (maybe I should have inserted "[...]" where applicable). Full text here: http://pastebin.com/DaSph9uT

OMFG I was unaware of these facts! This is MINDBLOWING. How gox is still (sort of) going is beyond me. They were warned about all this, and they thought fees would solve their problems? I remember my last withdrawal from them annoying me because of having to pay what I though was a huge fee! (Well it was like a weeks mining profit for me!) My understanding of bitcoin is MINIMAL. I am not a techy type AT ALL, and I understood the mandatory transfer fee to be absurd. How the f$%& did these guys make their own custom wallet software and not lose everything when they make mistakes like this?

[Davyd05]

looks like the market is starting to smell the pastebin news

gox being as silent as they have been in a time with this much panic, leaves me hoping they have everybody working on the fix

[FTWbitcoinFTW]

looks like the market is starting to smell the pastebin news

Yes, perfect timing with reddit

[Richy_T]

There might be more than a kernel of truth in the bolded part. I've been reading this thread with great interest during the recent turbulence, and it seems hardly anyone can come up with a bullish scenario for the possible Gox resolutions. Gox goes under = loss of confidence and sell-off. Gox allows limited withdrawals = partial loss of confidence plus selling of the released coins. Gox allows full unlimited withdrawals = selling of the released coins.

Another POV is that both of these scenarios are factored in and that whichever happens, uncertainty is removed and we are able to get back on track (for whatever on track means for you).

An important thing to remember is that there will be no bail-out. No one is going to reach into your bank account to give a bunch of money to Gox to keep going (unless something goes very, very wrong). That's quite bullish if you ask me.

[empowering]

we're going below 500.

We're going below your mom.

Is that so much HATE? It looks like  ShroomsKit shadow has corrupted your soul!!! 

Not at all. I love going below his mom.

 

[seleme]

we're going below 500.

We're going below your mom.

Stay class Billyboy, stay classy...

In real world you would need to prove that point with your fists and strength of your teeth but this is Internet so staying classy is best way to not look like an idiot. I guess not looking like idiot is hard in your case but people have done bigger things while trying hard

[dreamspark]

That pastebin was taken completely out of context. The user on here who posted it also apologised to gmaxwell on IRC for posting it

[FullLife]

It seems like Bitfinex is doin much more Volume than Bitstamp in the last days.

Bitfinex has access to Bitstamp's order book.

[fonzie]

It seems like Bitfinex is doin much more Volume than Bitstamp in the last days.

Bitfinex has access to Bitstamp's order book.

I know but most of the 100-200BTC orders/trades in the last hours have been only shown in the Bitfinex books.

[spooderman]

electricity, cars, internet, bitcoin. To me it really feels that revolutionary. The fud literally seems as absurd as someone around the time electricity was "invented" saying "pmg someone got electrocuted! This new thing isn't as safe as the old things we've used, it's never going to catch on."

edit: here's a great example of the fud shitting bears from yesteryear:

http://thenextweb.com/shareables/2010/02/27/newsweek-1995-buy-books-newspapers-straight-intenet-uh/#!wJzgl

[mmitech]

I've got some FIAT on Bitstamp as well, I don't know where the price is heading but I wish if it go as low as 420 so my orders will fulfill, if not I will just cash out what I have in there

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Arcas]

Home sick today with no funds on an exchange to play with. Kind of sucks.

[oda.krell]

It seems like Bitfinex is doin much more Volume than Bitstamp in the last days.

Bitfinex has access to Bitstamp's order book.

Where do you get that from? Bitcoinaverage seems generally reliable on this, and they have stamp before finex

[fonzie]

As far as i am aware of the volume data, the volume done on Bitstamp through Bitfinex shows in both statistics.
At least that´s how it works in bitcoinwisdom.com?
If 500BTC on Finex get sold through stamp-only orders it shows on both.