Checking the Chinese Slumber Method predictions for Feb/23Prediction posted on: Saturday 2014-02-22, 22:05 UTC
Prediction valid for: Sunday 2014-02-23, 19:00--19:59 UTC
The prediction for today (Sunday Feb/23) was again way off the mark. The rally that started on Feb/22, presumably triggered by the (false) rumor that MtGOX had started testing their new software, continued through Feb/23.
However, the actual price at the predicted time was close to the trendline of the Slumber Points between Feb/10 and Feb/19 inclusive. It is as if the three previous Slumber Points (Feb/20--22) were all False, including Feb/21, in spite of its low volume. That is, it is as if the four days Feb/20--23 had been one single "trading session" --- like Feb/11--12, Feb/13--14, and Feb/16--17 --- during which the price veered off the trend line, only to return to it at the end.
Lesson learned: never try to draw a trend line with only one data point.
Anyway, here are the numbers:
Huobi's predicted price: 3368 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3810 CNY
Error: 452 CNY
Bitstamp's predicted price: 550 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 623 USD
Error: 73 USD
The Huobi prediction in question is the rightmost blue rectangle on the chart below. The light blue-gray rectangles are the previous predictions. The orange and grey dots are the True and False Slumber Points, the mean prices at 19:00 UTC every day. The orange line is the trend that was assumed for the prediction.
The following chart shows the Bitstamp prices and predictions. The orange and grey dots are
Huobi's prices at 19:00 UTC every day, divided by R = 6.12. The orange line is the trend used in the prediction, which is Huobi's trend divided by R.