Checking the Chinese Slumber Method predictions for Feb/23Prediction posted on: Saturday 2014-02-22, 22:05 UTC
Prediction valid for: Sunday 2014-02-23, 19:00--19:59 UTC
The prediction for today (Sunday Feb/23) was again way off the mark. The rally that started on Feb/22, presumably triggered by the (false) rumor that MtGOX had started testing their new software, continued through Feb/23.
However, the actual price at the predicted time was close to the trendline of the Slumber Points between Feb/10 and Feb/19 inclusive. It is as if the three previous Slumber Points (Feb/20--22) were all False, including Feb/21, in spite of its low volume. That is, it is as if the four days Feb/20--23 had been one single "trading session" --- like Feb/11--12, Feb/13--14, and Feb/16--17 --- during which the price veered off the trend line, only to return to it at the end.
Lesson learned: never try to draw a trend line with only one data point.
Anyway, here are the numbers:
Huobi's predicted price: 3368 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3810 CNY
Error: 452 CNY
Bitstamp's predicted price: 550 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 623 USD
Error: 73 USD
The Huobi prediction in question is the rightmost blue rectangle on the chart below. The light blue-gray rectangles are the previous predictions. The orange and grey dots are the True and False Slumber Points, the mean prices at 19:00 UTC every day. The orange line is the trend that was assumed for the prediction.
![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ic.unicamp.br%2F%7Estolfi%2Ftemp%2F2014-02-23-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png&t=665&c=ZiegYmG0DHZQOA)
The following chart shows the Bitstamp prices and predictions. The orange and grey dots are
Huobi's prices at 19:00 UTC every day, divided by R = 6.12. The orange line is the trend used in the prediction, which is Huobi's trend divided by R.
![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ic.unicamp.br%2F%7Estolfi%2Ftemp%2F2014-02-23-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png&t=665&c=iOQvefAEE5TBMA)