Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[aztecminer]

The facts:
If half a million people wanted to send a single bitcoin to another address the same day, THEY COULD NOT ALL DO IT, NO MATTER HOW HIGH A FEE THEY PAID.

People know this and so we do not buy bitcoin. This is why the price is falling. Price will continue to fall or stagnate until capacity is raised.

What? I was not aware the scaling problem was so high!

Why are most people saying that everything is fine and that scaling will come then? It's really not going to help bitcoin adoption! Especially considering how many transaction are made everyday that are "automatic transactions" like faucets or games that are added to the human exchanges.

there are people who are emotionally attached to their bitcoin investment .. they want the price to continue to increase .

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Hum so, basically you just go for anything strangers tells you to, putting literally YOUR money at risk at every corner??! just wow.

No, that is called "Supporting Core".

And its not YOUR money anymore - Its AXA/Horizons. So be careful you dont get it grubby with your filthy hands before they can collect it via LN.

Thank You.

Don’t forget Moneta. Whatever the hell they are.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1305286.msg13810512#msg13810512

[ImI]

Hum so, basically you just go for anything strangers tells you to, putting literally YOUR money at risk at every corner??! just wow.

No, that is called "Supporting Core".

And its not YOUR money anymore - Its AXA/Horizons. So be careful you dont get it grubby with your filthy hands before they can collect it via LN.

Thank You.

Don’t forget Moneta. Whatever the hell they are.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1305286.msg13810512#msg13810512

i wouldnt go hysterical over that. the community can fork to 2MB, core follows and everybody is happy. classic is not even close when it comes to further development.

[aztecminer]

The facts:
If half a million people wanted to send a single bitcoin to another address the same day, THEY COULD NOT ALL DO IT, NO MATTER HOW HIGH A FEE THEY PAID.

People know this and so we do not buy bitcoin. This is why the price is falling. Price will continue to fall or stagnate until capacity is raised.

What? I was not aware the scaling problem was so high!

Why are most people saying that everything is fine and that scaling will come then? It's really not going to help bitcoin adoption! Especially considering how many transaction are made everyday that are "automatic transactions" like faucets or games that are added to the human exchanges.

Most people are not saying everything is fine. The people who are saying that either want to sell before the price crashes again or are attempting to prevent or stall scaling.  They are a minority.

your using common sense ... we expect the price to fall due to the scaling problem dragging out and more versions of bitcoin forks being created.. however, your forgetting the Marshal's Auction Pump 2015 when bitcoin should have went down but instead soared to $500.. i think they are attempting to cover the Marshal's Auction Pump is why this is staying up over $300 .. think about it.. the Marshal's auctioned all those coins out for much more than they were actually worth at the time of the auction.

[aztecminer]

Price crashed again, woohoo!!

Good job Gavin with your shit-eating grin and all you "classic" FUDsters! Right on!

really ?? that was a crash ??

[Fatman3001]

Hum so, basically you just go for anything strangers tells you to, putting literally YOUR money at risk at every corner??! just wow.

No, that is called "Supporting Core".

And its not YOUR money anymore - Its AXA/Horizons. So be careful you dont get it grubby with your filthy hands before they can collect it via LN.

Thank You.

Don’t forget Moneta. Whatever the hell they are.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1305286.msg13810512#msg13810512

i wouldnt go hysterical over that. the community can fork to 2MB, core follows and everybody is happy. classic is not even close when it comes to further development.

I sort of agree, but I am curious to see what happens in the Core camp when they realize they're working for an alt implementation. May be enough defections for there to be no need to turn back.

[hdbuck]

Hum so, basically you just go for anything strangers tells you to, putting literally YOUR money at risk at every corner??! just wow.

No, that is called "Supporting Core".

And its not YOUR money anymore - Its AXA/Horizons. So be careful you dont get it grubby with your filthy hands before they can collect it via LN.

Thank You.

Don’t forget Moneta. Whatever the hell they are.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1305286.msg13810512#msg13810512

i wouldnt go hysterical over that. the community can fork to 2MB, core follows and everybody is happy. classic is not even close when it comes to further development.

I sort of agree, but I am curious to see what happens in the Core camp when they realize they're working for an alt implementation. May be enough defections for there to be no need to turn back.

You Noobs know there is not only core out there right? About 2k nodes running other versions. And no, im not talking about the xt/classic spv aws spoofed nodes.

[ImI]

Hum so, basically you just go for anything strangers tells you to, putting literally YOUR money at risk at every corner??! just wow.

No, that is called "Supporting Core".

And its not YOUR money anymore - Its AXA/Horizons. So be careful you dont get it grubby with your filthy hands before they can collect it via LN.

Thank You.

Don’t forget Moneta. Whatever the hell they are.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1305286.msg13810512#msg13810512

i wouldnt go hysterical over that. the community can fork to 2MB, core follows and everybody is happy. classic is not even close when it comes to further development.

I sort of agree, but I am curious to see what happens in the Core camp when they realize they're working for an alt implementation. May be enough defections for there to be no need to turn back.

You Noobs know there is not only core out there right? About 2k nodes running other versions. And no, im not talking about the xt/classic spv aws spoofed nodes.

even better! that means the camp that opposes 2MB may be even smaller than thought.

[Elwar]

It is only because of politics that people will not like Classic.

Classic is just Core with at 2mb block size limit.

As long as that statement is true I will support it. I supported XT also until Hearn added blacklisting code to it.

Core with at 2mb instead of 1mb limit is a good idea. That's just math/logic. Not politics.

I will be sure to upgrade my node (yes, I still actually run a full node) when it is fully released (as long as there are no other changes snuck in!).

No, it is politics. The question whether Bitcoin should be a settlement system or a P2P electronic cash system is a political question. The question whether the supply of transactions should be left to the free market, or should be planned by a central committee is a political question. By upgrading to max. 2 MB blocks, you voice your opinion that there should be no shortage of possible transactions at this point in time of the development of Bitcoin.

I'm obviously not a developer but I don't see a problem with 2mb to solve the fact that we're hitting 100% capacity already. Segwit sounds like it will be good too. But I'll leave that to the developers. I'm open to upgrading to 2mb when that comes out to fix our current problem. I'll upgrade to segwit when that soft forks.

Whether the shortage of blockspace is regarded as a problem or is regarded as desirable (as an instrument to push small payments off the blockchain) is political. If you call the shortage of blockspace a problem, you have already expressed how you think about this.

Kind of like the Israel-Palestine conflict. Whether you talk about the West Bank or Judea & Samaria already tells how you think about the question if this area belongs to Israel or not.

I'm for whichever helps Bitcoin to succeed. So I am ambivalent. I like it as a currency and a payment system. If I can continue to use it in as many places that I currently use it and can use it in the same way then I am happy.

[aztecminer]

We are nowhere close to "everything will suck soon" ^tm. You guys have been saying that for a year now btw.

Actually several years. We've been repeatedly pointing at the same stupid, unnecessary hard ceiling, and pointing out that the inexorable trend of increasing transactions has us on a clear intersect.

In the meantime, we have recently gone from things never sucking in regards to capacity, to things sucking for brief flashes of time. The issue is not how much one needs to pay to get a transaction through, the issue is that with the current block size, no more than about 350,000 transactions can be processed in a day. Period. No matter how much money is thrown at the transactions.

Actually, it's more like 230,000 per day. Source: https://oxt.me/charts (Look at the maximum tx volumes in December and January).

Actually, it's more like 500,000 per day after segwit is implemented in April.

And how many transactions are low value (uneconomic elastic demand) that will drop off when the spam limit comes into effect? http://rusty.ozlabs.org/?p=500

And how many are actually responding to the nascent fee market? http://rusty.ozlabs.org/?p=564

And not as many transactions are actually "stuck" because of block limits but rather bad wallet software not broadcasting correctly ... http://rusty.ozlabs.org/?p=573

Edit: let's keep our numbers fact based shall we? Pulling magic constants out of bottoms is bad engineering, but maybe good politics.

as soon as BitcoinPure is released next tuesday bitcoin will finally be fixed.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[aztecminer]

Accordingly, I still have troubles understanding when the blocksize and/or scaling issues are presented as "an emergency."

Do you understand the principle of non-parallel lines in a two-dimensional cartesian coordinate system?

No.  I don't understand:  "non-parallel lines in a two-dimensional cartesian coordinate system."

It's may sound fancy, but it's very simple. This is a (logarithmic) graph of the number of Bitcoin transactions over time:



The interactive version is here: https://oxt.me/charts

The blue line is the number of transactions in a given month. In December and January there were 6 million transactions per month. The maximum per day that can be processed is about 250,000, so that's 7.5 million per month. To visualize that maximum, you could draw a horizontal line in the graph at 7,500,000. As you can see, the growth in transactions is pretty steady, in this logarithmic graph it's almost a straight line (so the growth is actually exponential). If you extrapolate that line to the future, it will cross the horizontal line at 7,500,000 tx at some point. In fact, if two lines don't run parallel, you know for sure they will cross each other sometime.

I haven't felt any significant delay because usually the transaction will show up with zero confirmations within 5 minutes or so then I can rest assured that it is coming to me.

When blocks become persistently full, you will never be able to safely assume that a zero-conf transaction will ever get included in a block.

And that is a fact.

O.k.  I will accept your representation.  Currently, we seem to be a long ways away from the "fact" that you are asserting to be coming about, and from my understanding, there are several potential bandaid solutions in place until a possible more permanent solution is agreed upon or implemented by coup de at... 

It will only take a few more months before the lines will cross. I wouldn't call that a long way off. And rolling out a hard fork takes time. So yes, time is running out fast.

the obvious answer to this is ... PUMP BITCOIN.... obviously .

[aztecminer]

...
"The lines cross and omg! catastrophe happens" is the sophisticated wrapper around the bullshit argument "nobody goes there any more because it is too popular".

Bitcoin is like brewer's yeast: by the time network stops growing it starts choking on its own piss, it's too late -- everything dies

that means bitcoin is worth $500 at least..

[Fatman3001]

@BMB Don't worry, we are both merely wet farts in the sewers.

[BitUsher]

the community can fork to 2MB, core follows and everybody is happy. classic is not even close when it comes to further development.

It appears that many classic supporters are now betting on if classic reaches the 75% threshold, Core will simply go against all their principles and add the bump2mb  changes to 0.12.1 and proceed with a <28 day HF. This is likely based upon the assumption that most core devs simply believe that segwit is a slightly better solution than BIP 102/bump2mb which isn't entirely true. In reality, many core devs see this HF as an attempt to remove consensus and replace it with democratic governance in which a majority can force the minority into adapting changes ... and see that as a complete failure of the project.

These aren't attempts at bluffing, we really do believe this, and thus what would likely happen if Classic activates at 75% is some core devs decide to join the classic team, some leave bitcoin entirely and slowly sell their large investments, some create an alt or leave to develop another alt, and some start making plans for the day of the fork with attack vectors on the new chain to wrestle back control..... or Bitcoin Core acknowledges Classic's accomplishment , make an announcement that they will set a planned 2MB HF 6-8 months from than* and the miners quickly turn their hashpower back to core forcing classic to quickly scramble at updating their nodes before the deadline is met and they fork off with a minority amount of hashpower.


* -- If certain conditions are met.

[aztecminer]

If you think the world has enough Bitcoin users as things stand today, you have a point. If you think that use of Bitcoin growing by a factor of more than several dozen percent is desirable, then your point is ridiculous.

What makes you believe that users would feel the urgent need to spend their btc in dust amounts for b/s on a daily basis?
And even if they did, why would that be so good? To look cool waiting half an hour to pay a frappuccino? And at what cost?

For the umpteenth time - the issue is NOT dust transactions. The issue is that, with max block size capped at 1MB, the system is simply incapable of handling more than ~350,000 transactions a day - no matter the value of those transactions. Quit changing the topic. Quit putting words in my mouth. Such is dishonest.

what if we mine only half as many coins ?? as long as we are mining less coins then it shouldnt matter if we can only do 350k transactions a day cuz there are less coins to trade.... GENIUS!! .. bitcoin back to $500 this week .... ..... #GimpedCoin

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

@BMB Don't worry, we are both merely wet farts in the sewers.

That's a relief.

[aztecminer]

I am genuinely looking forward to seeing what response you, brg444, icebreaker, hdbuck et al. provide for our entertainment if the network actually forks to classic and no disaster occurs. All that brazen supercilious venom spewed over the last year with potentially nothing to show for haha.

I'm glad you're finding it hilarious. I don't. Because I invested non-trivial portion of my portfolio into Bitcoin and I'd hate it all to go "poof!" if a hostile hard fork backfires and the net DOES split into two. Are you willing to bet ALL your BTC that this has a zero chance of happening? I would not be so sure.

WAIT...WAIT ..  you are talking like bitcoin is a HUGE RISK .

[iCEBREAKER]

Unfortunately classic is not quite dead yet.

When it is and the threat of chaotic, contentious and unnecessary (segwit is superior) hard fork is over, we can all look forward to a massive price increase (like move from 230->450 after xt collapse) and bitcoin moving forward.

These bombing runs from Gavin and coinbase are getting tiring.

I doubt they will be able to centralise bitcoin development under their control.

Lighten up Francis!

Bitcoin's antifragility only grows stronger when presented with adversity.

And the stampeding herds of noisy Gavinista Lolcows are more comedy than adversity.

Coinbase and Gavin@TLA.MIT.GOV have now spent over a year bloviating about Capacity Crunches, Hard Landings, etc. 

Result?  Honey Badger just don't care.   

[bargainbin]

...
Result?  Honey Badger just don't care.