Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

I'm not about to dismiss your laddering strategies, or the possibility of doom. Do what works. God speed, hombre.

[Voodah]

I don't want you to feel like I am dogging you, but on a personal level, I am feeling a bit heavy on the BTC side, because when we went up to $19,000s, I was around 88% BTC, but my bullish inclinations caused me to be kind of on a BTC accumulation mission because I had been selling so much BTC all the way up from $9k-ish and even before that, ever since our mid September correction down to $2,970.    Anyhow, by the time we reached $19,666, there was a bit of a sense that we were going to continue going up and to break above $20k (or at least at the time there seemed to have been decent odds to break above $20k, which kind of seems absurd now, and like we really did need to have this "pause" period).

It still doesn't seem as absurd to me judging from the local market (Greece). Given that we still have in effect capital controls, you can't just wire a big amount abroad and buy BTC. So internal demand has to be met by internal supply - and this "closed system" over here kind of reveals more of the dynamics compared to an open/international system.

From what I saw, internal supply dried up sharply after prices went 8-10k+ - in a way mirroring your own sells. This means that most people sold a lot of BTC in sub-10k prices and then there was very little to sell from willing sellers... meanwhile willing buyers wanted a lot of BTC, even up to 20k and beyond (they were paying a premium) yet they couldn't find it.

On the international scene, you have similar situations with exchanges being unable to handle new customers, imposing buying quotas, etc. In a way, the market is being bottlenecked by tens of intentional or unintentional obstacles - but the money keeps piling up.

I observed the exact same patterns happening down here in South America.

Internal supply dried quickly during the run up, and the usual 'Exchange + 3%' premium increased to 5 and then to 8%. It's starting to get better now but it was hard to find any btc at all during christmas and new year.

[Last of the V8s]

[kosse]

Like I said yeasterday the old mammoth is already faltering. We are about to go down big time!

[TERA2]

btc goes up, alts go down. btc goes down, alts go down. just stay out of alts...

[Heater]

btc goes up, alts go down. btc goes down, alts go down. just stay out of alts...

It's a sea of red - ETH down on the daily now.

[iDonnieCoffee]

btc goes up, alts go down. btc goes down, alts go down. just stay out of alts...

It's a sea of red - ETH down on the daily now.

are there any particular news?

[ivomm]

Like I said yeasterday the old mammoth is already faltering. We are about to go down big time!

It is funny to see how poor alt trolls are crawling from their mouse holes each time BTC dips for an hour. What are you hoping for, noobs? That with 15$ buying ripple, iota or other scam that hardly will survive 2-3 years and win 10 mln $? Not gonna happen, I guarantee!

[Heater]

btc goes up, alts go down. btc goes down, alts go down. just stay out of alts...

It's a sea of red - ETH down on the daily now.

are there any particular news?

No news. Pure emotion.

There was a few tweets about TRON reminding everyone that shitcoins are shit, but that's an everyday occurrence (that gets ignored).

Bitcoin will be the biggest winner at the end of the day. ETH will probably bounce back too.

[ghandi]

Long time i was certain Bitcoin is the way to go.

But to be honest, at least Cardano could shift things quite a bit, because they simply redesign and overhaul a lot of things Bitcoin and Ethereum weren't perfect.

Wouldn't be surprised if it's "the futer" (tm).

[selffish]

BTC downwards, but RSI is good... i dont understand

[STT]

Sea of red, have you traded crypto before today.    This is a muddy puddle.   My overall take on Bitcoin at least is a bullish pattern with pullback to some support.   It can develop further negatively but thats not apparent yet.

15200 is a long term bullish trend line.   It was recently seen to be a rough ceiling at end of last week.    Maybe more important is 15,713 as a fib line.  This is the same price that marked support after the ATH 19k and pullback so marks strength now, in significant terms the next rung down would be 13,073.  The gaps are so large because the rate of change was so rapid, thats volatility its uneven seas but par for the course.

[TERA2]

So much for the internet of money. Maybe next time.

[Arriemoller]

Did everyone here manage to claim/dump their superbitcoin and bitcoindiamond? I figured out the easiest method last night and got a few extra btc for dumping them

Please elaborate.

Yes, please describe "the easiest method" would save me a lot of time.

EDIT: I see you answered the question already, won't work for me I'm afraid. have a Android phone and my stash is not in a Trezor or any suck gizmo.

[Last of the V8s]

@AriDavidPaul
Funny line from a friend: my tax strategy is to hodl long enough that I outlast the IRS.
10:53 PM - 6 Jan 2018

-Jojo and Ari are mates
-Ari reads the WO thread and er extrapolates
-coincidence, convergent evolution, aliens etc

[luckygenough56]

spectre and meltdown comin, close your trading accounts before apocalypse

[Heater]

Sea of red, have you traded crypto before today.   

Mate you are reading too much into that. It just means most of the altcoins are - you know - red at the moment. I don't trade and I don't own any shitcoins coins so I really don't care if they go up down or sideways. I'm a good old fashioned permabull BTC hodler.

[HairyMaclairy]

I am currently 100% BTC on my BTC / USD account.  I will start selling down again as we hit $16k, to a low of 98% BTC.  Yes I am a hard bull because anyone not on the train when it leaves the station will be left behind.   Again.

I have Tether and Alts in my Alts account.  But that is firewalled from the BTC account and they don’t mix, other than taking profits in BTC which is a one way process. Those funds never come back to the Alts account.

Edit:  first sell at $15900 so no longer 100%....  

The problem from my perspective is that the weekend dip grossly underperformed. I was targeting buying back lower.  This is a strong bullish signal for the week ahead.

Don't get me wrong, because I am completely sympathetic for bullish inclinations, and it could be possible that we are merely using the terminology differently?


Or perhaps, I am just not as smart as you in terms of figuring out BTC price direction.


I know that you are proclaiming a pretty fucking strong indication that BTC prices are going UP from here - but really, how can you know for sure.  NO one knows... NOT even Roach.

What I am asking is what if prices go below $10k, then what you going to do?  If you have money to buy under $10k, then you are already NOT 100%, and we are merely using the term 100% differently.    

By the way, I have orders set all the way down to $3k; however, I think that the odds are quite low that any of them are going to be filled.. even filling orders below $10k is seeming like a pretty big stretch, but I still think that it remains a very prudent thing to prepare for the unexpected, no?    

1.  At the time of this post its 5.57 am on Monday in New York on the first real work week back from Christmas.  We know that the price drops during holiday periods.   This dip can be seen as the bears’ last blow off before life returns to normal.  

2.  We know that Bitcoin will most probably be listed for an ETF in coming months. The whales know it too. They have been trying to shake down the hodlers all Xmas break.  Their efforts have been fairly dismal.  When the ETF is announced (or rumored) the price will go vertical and Bitcoin will claw back its dominance as the alts quagmire sinks.  To me it is obvious this is a short lived dip.  Like I said, I am a bull.  

3.  I live my life in containers.  This forum is part of my Bitcoin box.  It is not allowed to touch the other boxes.  In 2014 I put was I was prepared to lose into the Bitcoin box.  Since then I have not put any more money in.  The box is mostly full Bitcoin but is allowed to sell some small amounts for pullbacks.  When I talk about being long, it is because my Bitcoin trading box is out of fiat.

4.  In the event of a major price drop, I might consider taking some money from other parts of my life (other boxes) and putting it into Bitcoin.  Not a drop to $8k which I would consider fairly minor, but a drop to $3k would get my attention.   I have been successful since 2014 and so what I am prepared to lose would be bigger, but it take a lot to let the boxes touch - it would need to be a life changing event.

In summary I think the confusion lies from us using our terminology in two different senses.  

[HairyMaclairy]

spectre and meltdown comin, close your trading accounts before apocalypse

Explain pls. Why close trading accounts ? I thought OS' were imminently releasing patches to mitigate this.

It’s a hardware issue. Software can’t fix hardware issues.   It’s also overblown if you are already following good security procedures like a paranoid holder.

[BitcoinBunny]

spectre and meltdown comin, close your trading accounts before apocalypse

Explain pls. Why close trading accounts ? I thought OS' were imminently releasing patches to mitigate this.

It’s a hardware issue. Software can’t fix hardware issues.   It’s also overblown.  

Indeed. It seems a bit like the Y2K bug panic to me.

Sure theoretically it is possible to exploit the speculative execution security bug but it is still much easier for attackers to try to install keyloggers remotely, or Windows mallware such as what happened with the NHS attack in the UK or setup a callcentre in India pretending to be Microsoft and phone random people and getting them to pay for unnecessary support or pretend to be from GoDaddy and phone new domain owners getting them to pay for unnecessary "domain activation" or even try to get them to give up their BTC wallet private keys or attacking crypto exchanges directly.