Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[d_eddie]

I let others do the thinking.
I allways have a peek at the funding book at Finex. It represents the sentiment of lots of people (hopefully professionals), actually putting their money on the line, voting with their feet.

And what does that book tell you right now?

[1713956982]

1713956982

[1713956982]

1713956982

[jojo69]

thanks for checking in Jimbo   

[fred1111]

There is a pattern in the 1y chart:
https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#dominance-percentage
Moon

[scum]

In the spirit of all the on topic charts and sharing going on I have updated my bitcoin difficulty vs mining hardware return sheet with today's bitcoin network difficulty increase.

As predicted the 5% average is holding strong. However come Friday with the next wave of hardware being shipped I wonder if the increase network hit will once again ring true that at this price point USD/BTC its best to simply buy BTC instead of mining hardware. That is if profit is your motivation.

...thanks, I've been watching a similar but cruder indicator, it's basically the old days "mine or buy?" indicator.

So far it's been good for medium to long term entry points on the secular bitcoin bull. It's really just a manifestation of the bitcoin mining cost-of-production price providing a floor to bitcoin market price and getting in at cost-of-production, i.e. the mining price ... miner's who have contracts to supply will buy at the market if market price drops below their mining costs, that's basic economics of doing business in a cut-throat industry.

Cointelegraph recently posted an article estimating that most miners are barely breaking even at $8000. There's other news outlets running articles with the same mining's no longer profitable theme.

Bullish?


https://cointelegraph.com/news/fundstrats-tom-lee-reports-bitcoin-mining-now-less-profitable-due-to-falling-btc-prices

A recent report by Fundstrat’s Tom Lee notes that Bitcoin (BTC) mining earnings are currently almost breaking even, as the activity has temporarily become less profitable the midst of the current decline in the markets, CNBC reported yesterday, March 15.

Lee notes in the report that the current figure for the cost of mining one bitcoin is $8,038, while BTC is trading at around $8,221 by press time, down a quarter of a percent over a 24 hour period, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

The model Fundstrat used for calculating the cost of mining one BTC includes the cost of equipment, overhead such as sustaining cooling apparatuses, and the cost of electricity, assumed to be 6 cents per kilowatt. The head of quantitative data science at Fundstrat, Sam Doctor, said that the cost of replacing equipment takes up more than half of the overall cost of mining.

[HairyMaclairy]

G20 holds fire on crypto-regulation ... way clear for ETFs?

No.  G20 says crypto too small to regulate. SEC says crypto too small for ETFs.

NO no, not exactly. SEC said there were no regulated exchanges trading bitcoin so ETF was on hodl. CBOE and CME now both trading bitcoin futures ... so I call your no and raise you a big NO.

Bitcoin futures on CBOE and CME aren’t trading Bitcoin.  They are cash settled and may as well be trading weather patterns.

[Sitarow]

In the spirit of all the on topic charts and sharing going on I have updated my bitcoin difficulty vs mining hardware return sheet with today's bitcoin network difficulty increase.

As predicted the 5% average is holding strong. However come Friday with the next wave of hardware being shipped I wonder if the increase network hit will once again ring true that at this price point USD/BTC its best to simply buy BTC instead of mining hardware. That is if profit is your motivation.

...thanks, I've been watching a similar but cruder indicator, it's basically the old days "mine or buy?" indicator.

So far it's been good for medium to long term entry points on the secular bitcoin bull. It's really just a manifestation of the bitcoin mining cost-of-production price providing a floor to bitcoin market price and getting in at cost-of-production, i.e. the mining price ... miner's who have contracts to supply will buy at the market if market price drops below their mining costs, that's basic economics of doing business in a cut-throat industry.

Every now and then I feel there is a need to educate people before they rush to invest in mining hardware without considering the basic truth of network adjusted difficulty vs simply buying the coin.

I feel this is a good indicator of outside investment vs existing miners re-investing in their operation.

In the spirit of all the on topic charts and sharing going on I have updated my bitcoin difficulty vs mining hardware return sheet with today's bitcoin network difficulty increase.

As predicted the 5% average is holding strong. However come Friday with the next wave of hardware being shipped I wonder if the increase network hit will once again ring true that at this price point USD/BTC its best to simply buy BTC instead of mining hardware. That is if profit is your motivation.

...thanks, I've been watching a similar but cruder indicator, it's basically the old days "mine or buy?" indicator.

So far it's been good for medium to long term entry points on the secular bitcoin bull. It's really just a manifestation of the bitcoin mining cost-of-production price providing a floor to bitcoin market price and getting in at cost-of-production, i.e. the mining price ... miner's who have contracts to supply will buy at the market if market price drops below their mining costs, that's basic economics of doing business in a cut-throat industry.

Cointelegraph recently posted an article estimating that most miners are barely breaking even at $8000. There's other news outlets running articles with the same mining's no longer profitable theme.

Bullish?


https://cointelegraph.com/news/fundstrats-tom-lee-reports-bitcoin-mining-now-less-profitable-due-to-falling-btc-prices

A recent report by Fundstrat’s Tom Lee notes that Bitcoin (BTC) mining earnings are currently almost breaking even, as the activity has temporarily become less profitable the midst of the current decline in the markets, CNBC reported yesterday, March 15.

Lee notes in the report that the current figure for the cost of mining one bitcoin is $8,038, while BTC is trading at around $8,221 by press time, down a quarter of a percent over a 24 hour period, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

The model Fundstrat used for calculating the cost of mining one BTC includes the cost of equipment, overhead such as sustaining cooling apparatuses, and the cost of electricity, assumed to be 6 cents per kilowatt. The head of quantitative data science at Fundstrat, Sam Doctor, said that the cost of replacing equipment takes up more than half of the overall cost of mining.

It is good to see that others are helping keep awareness in the forefront. It is true that even if an operation has government subsidized power costs that render it to 0 cents kwh it may prove "profitable" because in the world crypto economy every coin you make is a peace of the global pie. I can see if government subsidization can be part of a mining operation. This perk would most likely come with a contract obligation to reinvest in the local community/economy. For some that is invaluable opportunity especially if it is a place with free power abundant infrastructure / buildings and serious unemployment.

[pfrtlpfmpf]

I let others do the thinking.
I allways have a peek at the funding book at Finex. It represents the sentiment of lots of people (hopefully professionals), actually putting their money on the line, voting with their feet.

And what does that book tell you right now?

It says: "you have been logged out, successfully"  

Sorry, you have to look yourself, and draw conclusions. No predictions here.

[HairyMaclairy]

[cAPSLOCK]

As I was browsing some other tradingview forecasts, I came across at least one bullish scenario that looks/sounds plausible.

Why do people draw bats all over charts? It never means or predicts anything

And here I thought bitcoin was drawing a Monero logo?

[d_eddie]

That's actually what I hope will happen!

Not necessarily my prediction - I'm not able to do that, and the mammoths are nowhere to be seen (or heard).

[jojo69]

Cointelegraph recently posted an article estimating that most miners are barely breaking even at $8000. There's other news outlets running articles with the same mining's no longer profitable theme.

wait just a minute

The FUDsters have been in here claiming that BTC is going to fall to the cost of production, which they put around @1000.

Just which the hell is it?

[TERA2]

Anyone who talks about the 'cost of production' can be immediately ignored as they obviously dont understand the most fundamental concepts about bitcoin.

[nazzer]

Cointelegraph recently posted an article estimating that most miners are barely breaking even at $8000. There's other news outlets running articles with the same mining's no longer profitable theme.

wait just a minute

The FUDsters have been in here claiming that BTC is going to fall to the cost of production, which they put around @1000.

Just which the hell is it?

At current difficulty, mining 1 BTC costs around $3000-$4000 depending on electricity costs - not including capital outlay.

[marcus_of_augustus]

G20 holds fire on crypto-regulation ... way clear for ETFs?

No.  G20 says crypto too small to regulate. SEC says crypto too small for ETFs.

NO no, not exactly. SEC said there were no regulated exchanges trading bitcoin so ETF was on hodl. CBOE and CME now both trading bitcoin futures ... so I call your no and raise you a big NO.

Bitcoin futures on CBOE and CME aren’t trading Bitcoin.  They are cash settled ...

I never said otherwise and am well aware of that.

But how do you think they are hedging those cash-settled futures positions? With weather futures?

Seems to be quite a few irate bears trying to defend their positions around here ... feeling a bit salty about those shorts gone on at the death-cross?

Anyone with experience in commodities markets knows that you don't put shorts on at cost-of-production prices ... that's suicidal picking up pennies in front of the steam-roller trading.

[marcus_of_augustus]

Anyone who talks about the 'cost of production' can be immediately ignored as they obviously dont understand the most fundamental concepts about bitcoin.

hahaha ... fuck tera how can you still not get it after all these years? has that cancer spread to your brain or something?

[fragout]

Wow. The second the daily candle closed +$200 and counting.
The misery index was ATL today.
FSB news seems to be the kick btc needed.
Remember, all or most of the new cash that came into crypto last year is still there, although it has likely changed hands in a lot of cases.

[BitcoinBunny]

[scum]

Cointelegraph recently posted an article estimating that most miners are barely breaking even at $8000. There's other news outlets running articles with the same mining's no longer profitable theme.

wait just a minute

The FUDsters have been in here claiming that BTC is going to fall to the cost of production, which they put around @1000.

Just which the hell is it?

At current difficulty, mining 1 BTC costs around $3000-$4000 depending on electricity costs - not including capital outlay.

The cointelegraph article says replacing equipment costs more than half of the cost of production.


https://cointelegraph.com/news/fundstrats-tom-lee-reports-bitcoin-mining-now-less-profitable-due-to-falling-btc-prices

The model Fundstrat used for calculating the cost of mining one BTC includes the cost of equipment, overhead such as sustaining cooling apparatuses, and the cost of electricity, assumed to be 6 cents per kilowatt. The head of quantitative data science at Fundstrat, Sam Doctor, said that the cost of replacing equipment takes up more than half of the overall cost of mining.

[bones261]

Should we shed a tear for many of the bears today? 



Hello, this is your margin call.

[Anon136]

FSB news seems to be the kick btc needed.

What is this "FSB news" that you speak of?