People say no way the market is completely different etc. Said that as we were at 19k. We seeing same patterns as in 2013/14 after the gox crash. We'll going to 2 or 3k slowly but surely. Im in long term, no I dont want cheap coins and just saying this.
I agree, and nothing I have seen since December causes me to change my mind. The hacks, FUD, good and bad news are all trivial compared with the Big Trend, which will probably steamroller everything else for the next year or two.
The December high was an overbought extreme caused in part by the opening of CME futures, and the longer rising trendline is around 4k. Could get oversold around 2k before the real uptrend resumes, but there will be lots of false dawns first, and would not be surprised to see 9k again before the final bottom.
Maybe a 10% chance of total failure, and that will get priced in, but hardly worth considering atm. Having said that, I think trading and shorting is very risky, but just my opinion fwiw.