Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[windjc]

When your 100,000 dollars went down to 10,000 dollars it's just meh. When your 10 million goes down to 1 million, that's... harder.

I'd say it would probably be a lot worse going from $100k to $10k.  Also, a lot of people on this forum don't seem to understand bitcoin might still be in the $200-$1000 range without the enormous amount of Bitfinex and Chinese exchange fraud.  I mean, it's 100% fact that the entire market has been controlled by a single entity operating on Bitfinex since the price was $200.  This entity is either the exchange owners themselves or the Chinese mining cartel who operates in league with the exchange owners while getting kickbacks, or some giant whale like the ESF/Goldman Sachs rigging the market.

If this manipulation is removed or implodes, people calling for $3k bottom might be high balling it by a lot and the thing could crater down into the hundreds of dollars again.  It feels like to me though that the shitcoin market is being artificially propped up to try and distract people from gold and silver on purpose.  The next bull run on metals will probably break the bank so to speak from failure to deliver in LBMA/Comex/etc.

Roach, where do you live?

[1596827273]

1596827273

[1596827273]

1596827273

[1596827273]

1596827273

[realr0ach]

When your 100,000 dollars went down to 10,000 dollars it's just meh. When your 10 million goes down to 1 million, that's... harder.

I'd say it would probably be a lot worse going from $100k to $10k.  Also, a lot of people on this forum don't seem to understand bitcoin might still be in the $200-$1000 range without the enormous amount of Bitfinex and Chinese exchange fraud.  I mean, it's 100% fact that the entire market has been controlled by a single entity operating on Bitfinex since the price was $200.  This entity is either the exchange owners themselves or the Chinese mining cartel who operates in league with the exchange owners while getting kickbacks, or some giant whale like the ESF/Goldman Sachs rigging the market.

If this manipulation is removed or implodes, people calling for $3k bottom might be high balling it by a lot and the thing could crater down into the hundreds of dollars again.  It feels like to me though that the shitcoin market is being artificially propped up to try and distract people from gold and silver on purpose.  The next bull run on metals will probably break the bank so to speak from failure to deliver in LBMA/Comex/etc.

Roach, where do you live?

In a r0ach nest?

[windjc]

When your 100,000 dollars went down to 10,000 dollars it's just meh. When your 10 million goes down to 1 million, that's... harder.

I'd say it would probably be a lot worse going from $100k to $10k.  Also, a lot of people on this forum don't seem to understand bitcoin might still be in the $200-$1000 range without the enormous amount of Bitfinex and Chinese exchange fraud.  I mean, it's 100% fact that the entire market has been controlled by a single entity operating on Bitfinex since the price was $200.  This entity is either the exchange owners themselves or the Chinese mining cartel who operates in league with the exchange owners while getting kickbacks, or some giant whale like the ESF/Goldman Sachs rigging the market.

If this manipulation is removed or implodes, people calling for $3k bottom might be high balling it by a lot and the thing could crater down into the hundreds of dollars again.  It feels like to me though that the shitcoin market is being artificially propped up to try and distract people from gold and silver on purpose.  The next bull run on metals will probably break the bank so to speak from failure to deliver in LBMA/Comex/etc.

Roach, where do you live?

In a r0ach nest?

What country do you live in? Also what is your ethnicity and age?

[jojo69]

It's just too hard to crack, climbing the volcano, diving the marianas trench, calibrating the electron microscope...just too difficult to embark on on a whim

[windjc]

It's just too hard to crack, climbing the volcano, diving the marianas trench, calibrating the electron microscope...just too difficult to embark on on a whim

What "it" are you referring to?

[jojo69]

It's just too hard to crack, climbing the volcano, diving the marianas trench, calibrating the electron microscope...just too difficult to embark on on a whim

What "it" are you referring to?

sorry, I was responding to Anon's question about "cracking", selling in dispair

[xhomerx10]

[Paashaas]

2 a 3 bullruns before hitting $100k.

[JayJuanGee]

Yes, I understand that some folks like to gamble, so I suppose to each his own in that regard.  Personally, I get much more comfort from attempting to employ a strategy that aims to lessen the gambling component, to the extent feasible and reasonable.

I concur. I found a way to move in that direction that is working for me at the moment. My safety short, dictated by dreams of mammoths, has been exactly that: an attempt to lessen the gambling component, more than an actual bet.

From your previous description of the way that you were attempting to employ margin (really shorting), seemed to be a more reasonable and measured way than most of the seemingly all or nothing descriptions that I hear about.

A successful attempt, I should add. Had it gone really wrong, I'd have lost some 20-30% of my play money - which isn't that much anyway.

It seems that you had employed a strategy that was to consider the ramifications of either price direction, and of course when any of us hedge our bets, we are not going to win as much as if we were playing an all or nothing strategy - even while we are creating insurance, too, yet on the other hand, I, personally, believe that hedging is a much more solid long term play - both psychologically and financially, because if you add up the wins and losses (if you are being honest with yourself), you are much more likely to come out ahead and even willing to invest more if you are playing with strategies that both account for either price direction and don't play balls to the walls.

I purposefully set my stops in advance (ballpark, tweakable stops) to avoid falling prey to emotions. Luckily, it went well. The mammoths weren't playing games with me.

Well, yes.  One of the recognizable problems is that whales will sometimes push the price in the opposite direction of your margin bets, which cause your stops to get played and then the market quickly reverses.  Even though you did not have that issue in recent times, the practice of forcing stop losses needs to be appreciated as an ongoing possibility that could cause you to buy or sell at a time that has been manipulated and it certainly not of your chosing.

I more than doubled my play money, and I haven't even fully closed the position yet. Maybe I'll manage to rebuild a larger position (at a lower, more dangerous entry level), but only if we see a few up runs - and if I get a little lucky in timing.

Sometimes you can vastly increase your "play money" while also skimming a little bit off the top to put into reserves.  Of course, how you play your money remains discretionary, and if you develop good safeguarding practices, it is not too likely that all of a sudden you are going to revert to reckless gambling practices... and as we know there is another saying, which is "the rich become richer".. or put another way "you gotta to have money to make money".. there is some truth to those idioms..

My language is that of a gambler, granted  - "dangerous... if... little lucky...", but the attitude is more like that of a safety game in bridge: You give up the best possible outcome to mitigate the worst. For my short to fail, the price had to go over 12k. Isn't this kind of "bet" sensible?

Actually, don't get my prudish talk wrong because I am not opposed to gambling with some of the winnings and especially if you have already taken several safeguards to ensure that your bills are going to be paid for several months in advance and you are not dipping into "emergency money."   Frequently, we hear about folks who "had to" sell at the bottom because of an "unexpected emergency."  We are frequently going to have "emergencies" and they should be factored into any plan because failing to plan only causes an excuse about an "emergency" that could have and should have been anticipated to be within the realm of possibilities... so yeah, in short, I believe that there are prudent ways that you can set up your bets and to play possibilities that would likely pay off better in one direction rather than the other direction... but you are really not going to be devastated if the market goes against you.. which in the end adds up to a kind of "sensible" bet.

[jbreher]

fuck this shit! i sold everything at $6480

Too bad, so sad.

Can it go down further? Perhaps. Will it? Maybe. But sure as shit, it'll come roaring back, and you'll be out in the cold.

Hell, we were at this level just two months ago. Grow some stones, ninnies.

Did you nibble on some of the wrong mushrooms on your bearish adventures?

Bearish? I'm being typecast!

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

unless im reading this wrong, which is always a strong possibility with me.

You are reading your contribution(s) too modestly... .. 


I have another hobby besides bitcoin that requires a certain amount of practice and improvement that comes with experience. 

A common used expression in that hobby is "fake it until you make it,"  which I have found works for a lot of hobbies.

[jbreher]

Thank you lol, I have finally gotten my answer on this. Chartbuddy used to post in this thread all the time years ago, and when I finally came back to the forum recently I noticed it was gone. I have been wondering what happened to it!

At least now I have some closure  lol

Chartbuddy's creator was burned at the stake, accused of heresy. Though he escaped with his life, and continues tracking the markets for all to see in a more hospitable environment.

[becoin]

*edit* I'll say this though. It gives me the luxury of feeling ok right now. The habitual taking of profit gives me the ability to stay calm

I always calculate my profit in bitcoins. I feel ok if today I have more bitcoins than I had yesterday. The habitual taking of profit in bitcoins gives me the ability to stay calm.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

EDIT: seems like you're a "hero" but how in the world you've more than a thousand merit and still just a Hero?

In the initial January 24 merit distribution, theymos gave 500 merits to all hero members; however, about two weeks later, he rethought his initial distribution decision, and he decided to give an additional 500 merit (initial distribution) to all hero members who had at least 778 activity points at the time of the 1/24 initial distribution. 

Theymos concluded that the additional 500 initial distribution merits would be more fair concerning those higher activity level hero members, perhaps partly based on the quirky and quasi-random way that the forum's algorithm ranks up from hero to legendary, which can take place anywhere between 778 and 1100 activity points (something like that).

[JayJuanGee]

When your 100,000 dollars went down to 10,000 dollars it's just meh. When your 10 million goes down to 1 million, that's... harder.

I'd say it would probably be a lot worse going from $100k to $10k.  Also, a lot of people on this forum don't seem to understand bitcoin might still be in the $200-$1000 range without the enormous amount of Bitfinex and Chinese exchange fraud.  I mean, it's 100% fact that the entire market has been controlled by a single entity operating on Bitfinex since the price was $200.  This entity is either the exchange owners themselves or the Chinese mining cartel who operates in league with the exchange owners while getting kickbacks, or some giant whale like the ESF/Goldman Sachs rigging the market.

If this manipulation is removed or implodes, people calling for $3k bottom might be high balling it by a lot and the thing could crater down into the hundreds of dollars again.  It feels like to me though that the shitcoin market is being artificially propped up to try and distract people from gold and silver on purpose.  The next bull run on metals will probably break the bank so to speak from failure to deliver in LBMA/Comex/etc.

Roach, where do you live?

In a r0ach nest?

What country do you live in? Also what is your ethnicity and age?

The roach ain't gonna answer any of your questions with anything close to "real information" because answering those kinds of questions is not in his/her/its program... S/he/it participates in this WO thread merely to distract us from talking about bitcoin, and spreading various kinds of incitefull nonsense.

[criptix]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dAJLJRRJY3E

420

 


PS: Dennis Rodman for 2020

[JayJuanGee]

Thank you lol, I have finally gotten my answer on this. Chartbuddy used to post in this thread all the time years ago, and when I finally came back to the forum recently I noticed it was gone. I have been wondering what happened to it!

At least now I have some closure  lol

Chartbuddy's creator was burned at the stake, accused of heresy. Though he escaped with his life, and continues tracking the markets for all to see in a more hospitable environment.

If anything you deserve to be burned at the stake with him, if that were the case, because you both were BIG blocker nutjobs, but for some reason you thought that you could continue to serve your evil doer masters (Roger, Jihan and Craig) by continuing to participate in this thread with your BIGblocker nutjob conspiracy theories which transform out of convenience into Bcash pumping and other denigrations of bitcoin. 

Sure it is possible that you have actually employed a more diverse investment strategy that allows you to sometimes confine yourself to the more central topics of this bitcoin thread......

Also, Richie_T whine quitted, and surely he could come back here and be welcomed back, but for some reason he has too much emotion and/or pride and perhaps strives to receives some kind of princesa treatment, which none of us are entitled to that kind of princesa treatment (even though also Richie_T was very well respected for his bot contributions.. but chose to use the removal of such chartbuddy bot as a dramatic exit (mike hearn style or some other prima donna snowflake visions of self).. 

Let's say he comes back, and he would likely get razzed and harassed for a bit of time by some of us, but in the end, there is nothing stopping him from coming back.... except his own pride.

Same with you jbreher.. with some of your nonsense supporting of bcash, and BIG blocks and seemingly hostile positions against bitcoin (while trying to act like it is merely "free market.. blah blah blah), if you don't show too much of your nonsensical pumping of shit, spreading misleading ideas and attacks on bitcoin, then after a while people in this forum will credit you for your contribution and ideas.. but part of the problem for you is that you cannot help yourself to devolve back into nonsense politics that get rejected over and over in this forum by members, and that includes your inability to refrain by an historical reformulation that Richie_T  did not voluntarily remove himself based on his own crybaby taking of his marbles from the playground but instead implying that he was "forced" out... what bullshit..

[STT]

When your 100,000 dollars went down to 10,000 dollars it's just meh. When your 10 million goes down to 1 million, that's... harder.

I know someone who won 200k and was back in a work a week or so later.   Its not much in consideration of lifetime bills.    Going down to 10k means you really dont have anything so your room to flip it back up is limited, you have to be paying those bills asap which means little time for anything exotic.

On the other hand going to 1 mill still leaves alot of options.  Some might say this even is not alot in that lifetime perspective and sure maybe but it leaves enough leeway to swing your fortunes back up again.  You can in theory trim down your costs and possibly get a plan together in whatever your expertise is and get back to the 10mil level perhaps.  You got a shot and the space to do so.  

10k on the other hand is going to require some magic and almost zero costs not to be burning it very quickly.  Your back in rat race for sure, on the treadmill.   Seems a bigger relative loss to me.   Buffet said he can double the first million far more easily then he can progress that later 10 mil into double again or the larger sizes.   After a certain point your footprint is too big I guess, I think a 1 mil float is the sweet spot maybe people at that level go up and back down alot.



Heres a short term test, the previous floor as a ceiling.   There should be bigger levels then just this super focused view.    People appear to think the price should go down but seems too simple to me, anytime people expect it or are consigned to that possibility the market usually defys expectations.     Still looking for a bigger test upwards to try and fail first.  Seems a bit drab and just too tired a move to go big.

Is the surprise to the upside and the china positive news more then just a rumour.   Possible I just dont know the weight of probability

[Robin,Hood]

Waiting two years is not game over. It’s a minor inconvenience.

Game over for any type of ATH between now and halving.

Do not mind the capitulation talk...showing the blood on the streets is a good thing.

Mid January will be the lowest price then it will gradually build up to the next halving. It will be epic like no other.

[jbreher]

When your 100,000 dollars went down to 10,000 dollars it's just meh. When your 10 million goes down to 1 million, that's... harder.

On the other hand going to 1 mill still leaves alot of options.  

When you have 100K saved, you still need to work. Going down to 10K doesn't change that fact.

OTOH, 10M is a safe retirement range. Dropping to 1M means ya gotta go back to work. At least 'round these parts. Big change.