[ I don't think it will get that low myself, but can certainly see $2k-2.5k being very possible. The number of traders, hopers and buyers on the way down will limit the pace of the decline, so plenty of time to get out now, and plenty of time to get back in. I wouldn't wait for $2k, because that might be very brief, but buying back at $3k gives some opportunity for profit on a 1-2 year view.
Personally, I'm not brave enough to short it, because nothing is certain.]
I agree with what you are writing here, except for your seeming attempt to get peeps to sell now (persuade? or protect? of course, you would assert that you are attempting to "protect" poor little naive BTC HODLers) and asserting that there is "plenty of time to get back in."
Well, yes I suppose that might be right: not quite sure what you are looking for there.
O.k. Perhaps, I am quibbling with you a bit stronger than necessary, but to me, it seems a major problem to frame matters as if $4k or $3k or $2k is inevitable, when you are most likely giving it as the most likely of the possible events. Maybe we divide all the possible events up based on knowable factors, and you come with 20% as the highest of the probabilities, which is showing $2.5k.. and when you talk about it, it comes off as if you are saying it is inevitable.
So, quibble I must, and this is a didactic process, anyhow, since neither of us claims to really know, and we are just going back and forth regarding scenarios that we believe to be more or less likely.
Protecting people from their own folly is a fools errand.
I could be mistaken, but I recall in a previous post that you said something about having a mission to inform people about a more bearish scenario that is not being presented, and therefore, I concluded that you had a kind of mission to protect people from themselves...
Actually, I participate so much in this forum in order to sort out my own ideas, and sometimes it helps to type them out and to get challenged on them. Incidentally, each of us are likely to learn from such an interactive process, as long as we are interacting rather than just spouting out our own views... even if also, sometimes, there may be times in which the comments from others will cause us to become more rigid in our own views.
Using a bit of introspection, I guess what I mean to say is :
' OK, I think it is probably going to 3k or less... You can sell if you like,
Even if the price has decent odds of going to $3k, it remains an unsound practice to sell now for the reasons that you mention below, but also anyone who sells now, needs to be really kicking themselves in the ass and considering that they fucked up in failing/refusing to sell at earlier times. Furthermore, if anyone considers selling now, it would be wise to consider proportionality. So if such hypothetical person would have been in the practice of selling 100%, then instead selling 50% or some smaller proportion based on a few considerations, including the consideration that the whole situation is a fuck up and they may lose a lot of money by selling now rather than merely holding and/or figuring out ways to buy more if the price were to go down more.
but I am not going to, because
1. Bull trend will probably resume in 2 years or less.
2. Having got out it is harder to get back in.
3. The profit of getting it right is too low compared with the high cost of getting it wrong. '
Yes, these are all sound reasons, and I would presume that you sold some decent amount already (or refrained from buying) at higher prices. Actually, Majormax are you considering buying any BTC at any of the low BTC price points that you contemplate as being decently likely? $4k? $3k? $2k or some other price point(s).. or are you playing it by ear? Surely, you have already asserted that strong indications of bottom or conclusions of buying opportunities would be increased depending on HOW any additional price drop were to occur... for example, if it were to happen quickly and with high volume in the near term future, or if what you perceive to be a more likely scenario or drawn out downward movement pains over the coming year or two.