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Question: How would you classify yourself right now? (credit: VB1001)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21451148 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (135 posts by 29 users deleted.)
kirreev070
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October 14, 2018, 11:40:58 AM

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October 14, 2018, 11:55:59 AM




BTC’s price will be:  First column in 2-3 years    Second column in 6-7 years

Below $1k =             Less than 3%      Less than 1.5%

$1k to $3k =              8% to 12%              7% to 9%

$3k to $5k =             10% to 15%      8% to 12%

$5k to $10k =              10% to 15%      8% to 12%

$10k to $19k =              15% to 18%      12% to 15%

$19k to $30k =             15% to 18%      15% to 18%

$30k to $50k =             15% to 18%      15% to 18%

$50k to $100k =             12% to 15%      15% to 18%

$100k to $500k =              5% to 10%      10% to 15%

$500k to $1mill =              2% to 4%      10% to 15%

More than $1mill =             Less than 1%      Less than 5%


...we cannot rule out extremely bearish or extremely bullish scenarios, even though the probabilities seem to be on a kind of upwardly skewed bell curve.



That is a fair way of putting it, and yes, I would broadly agree with those 'guesstimates'.

'upwardly skewed bellcurve'   : I also like that term !   It can be termed bullish, even though there are very significant probabilities of loss in the next few years.
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October 14, 2018, 12:53:27 PM
Last edit: October 14, 2018, 01:08:54 PM by goldkingcoiner

I love guinness, but never out of a bottle. The only way its meant to be drunk is draught from a keg. Or at least a can with one of those little balls.

Cheers.

Nonsense. That pseudo-draught widget can bullshit is just a scam.

It isn't real live draught. Its pasteurized canned beer with a CO2 injection system. Not only that, it's only 4.2% alc/vol as is a real keg of Guinness draught.

Guinness Extra Stout varies from 5-7% alc/vol depending on where it's brewed. I prefer 5%.

Guinness is brewed all around the world. If I'm in Ireland I'll drink Irish-brewed Guinness. In Ontario, I'll drink Guinness brewed with Ontario water.




Actually its nitrogen. The exact same gas they use in kegging systems. As far as I know only the foreign export has 5%. And the original draught is 4.2%
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October 14, 2018, 01:06:22 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Vegas.

«Bitpay for room, gift shop, Coney Island hotdog, Steak House (not going to try to spell it) and Diner. Also sister property Gold Spike will accept BTC.»

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October 14, 2018, 01:08:35 PM


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October 14, 2018, 01:23:16 PM

The little spike triggered my safety stop, so I gained 10% less than I could have if I'd closed at the local bottom. Not going to open another short for the moment.

Call me paranoid, but it was so quick and sharp that it looks just like stop hunting.
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October 14, 2018, 01:32:30 PM


I appreciate your outlining of scenarios that you believe to be probable and most probable, but really it seems to me that you are not really accounting for the vast array of BTC price scenarios – even if you are attempting to stay in the middle of the road – and you are not putting your scenarios into a kind of probability range – which certainly each of us are going to frame these probabilities a bit differently.  Furthermore, it seems that even your optimistic scenario ends up with John McAfee eating his dick on TV.

I am going to attempt to elaborate on your scenarios by adding more scenarios and assigning probabilities to them.  By the way, I do agree with any premise that BTC’s performance in 6-7 years will partly depend upon how it performs in the next 2-3 years.

BTC’s price will be:  First column in 2-3 years    Second column in 6-7 years

Below $1k =             Less than 3%      Less than 1.5%

$1k to $3k =              8% to 12%              7% to 9%

$3k to $5k =             10% to 15%      8% to 12%

$5k to $10k =              10% to 15%      8% to 12%

$10k to $19k =              15% to 18%      12% to 15%

$19k to $30k =             15% to 18%      15% to 18%

$30k to $50k =             15% to 18%      15% to 18%

$50k to $100k =             12% to 15%      15% to 18%

$100k to $500k =              5% to 10%      10% to 15%

$500k to $1mill =              2% to 4%      10% to 15%

More than $1mill =             Less than 1%      Less than 5%


I’m kind of pulling the above estimates out of my ass (straight); however, my point still remains that each set of circumstances has probabilities, even though in the end, we are going to arrive at ONLY one spot once we get there.  Nonetheless, from our current perspective, we cannot rule out extremely bearish or extremely bullish scenarios, even though the probabilities seem to be on a kind of upwardly skewed bell curve.


In other words you believe the price will stay below 3K with probability 15% and below 5K with 30% probability for the next 3 years? I wouldn't give that much - 1-2% tops. The most important question is when the effect of mass adoption (including Wall Street companies) is about to happen? I don't think we are near that event. Not even close. So the price will continue to follow its previous pattern. For the last 4 years we had 100 fold increase between the lowest point and the ATH in 2017. It is logical that the same increase will happen in a similar time frame unless the mass adoption is near completition. But let's say that it goes much slower, say 1/4 of the speed of the previous pattern. In other words 6K->600k/4=150k is achievable price within 4 years. But let's say it is not highly probable. Then again, I think that 40K is absolutely normal price in the next 4 years.
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October 14, 2018, 01:53:00 PM




BTC’s price will be:  First column in 2-3 years    Second column in 6-7 years

Below $1k =             Less than 3%      Less than 1.5%

$1k to $3k =              8% to 12%              7% to 9%

$3k to $5k =             10% to 15%      8% to 12%

$5k to $10k =              10% to 15%      8% to 12%

$10k to $19k =              15% to 18%      12% to 15%

$19k to $30k =             15% to 18%      15% to 18%

$30k to $50k =             15% to 18%      15% to 18%

$50k to $100k =             12% to 15%      15% to 18%

$100k to $500k =              5% to 10%      10% to 15%

$500k to $1mill =              2% to 4%      10% to 15%

More than $1mill =             Less than 1%      Less than 5%


...we cannot rule out extremely bearish or extremely bullish scenarios, even though the probabilities seem to be on a kind of upwardly skewed bell curve.



That is a fair way of putting it, and yes, I would broadly agree with those 'guesstimates'.

'upwardly skewed bellcurve'   : I also like that term !   It can be termed bullish, even though there are very significant probabilities of loss in the next few years.

Bullish, bullish, bullish  Grin Cheesy Wink
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October 14, 2018, 02:18:35 PM
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BTC’s price will be:  First column in 2-3 years    Second column in 6-7 years

Below $1k =             Less than 3%      Less than 1.5%

$1k to $3k =              8% to 12%              7% to 9%

$3k to $5k =             10% to 15%      8% to 12%

$5k to $10k =              10% to 15%      8% to 12%

$10k to $19k =              15% to 18%      12% to 15%

$19k to $30k =             15% to 18%      15% to 18%

$30k to $50k =             15% to 18%      15% to 18%

$50k to $100k =             12% to 15%      15% to 18%

$100k to $500k =              5% to 10%      10% to 15%

$500k to $1mill =              2% to 4%      10% to 15%

More than $1mill =             Less than 1%      Less than 5%


...we cannot rule out extremely bearish or extremely bullish scenarios, even though the probabilities seem to be on a kind of upwardly skewed bell curve.



wow this is amazing. So the price is going to be between 1000$ and 1 Million $. Nice guess....
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October 14, 2018, 02:49:17 PM
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October 14, 2018, 02:53:17 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

I appreciate your outlining of scenarios that you believe to be probable and most probable, but really it seems to me that you are not really accounting for the vast array of BTC price scenarios – even if you are attempting to stay in the middle of the road – and you are not putting your scenarios into a kind of probability range – which certainly each of us are going to frame these probabilities a bit differently.  Furthermore, it seems that even your optimistic scenario ends up with John McAfee eating his dick on TV.

I am going to attempt to elaborate on your scenarios by adding more scenarios and assigning probabilities to them.  By the way, I do agree with any premise that BTC’s performance in 6-7 years will partly depend upon how it performs in the next 2-3 years.

BTC’s price will be:  First column in 2-3 years    Second column in 6-7 years

Below $1k =             Less than 3%      Less than 1.5%
$1k to $3k =              8% to 12%              7% to 9%
$3k to $5k =             10% to 15%      8% to 12%
$5k to $10k =              10% to 15%      8% to 12%
$10k to $19k =              15% to 18%      12% to 15%
$19k to $30k =             15% to 18%      15% to 18%
$30k to $50k =             15% to 18%      15% to 18%
$50k to $100k =             12% to 15%      15% to 18%
$100k to $500k =              5% to 10%      10% to 15%
$500k to $1mill =              2% to 4%      10% to 15%
More than $1mill =             Less than 1%      Less than 5%

I’m kind of pulling the above estimates out of my ass (straight); however, my point still remains that each set of circumstances has probabilities, even though in the end, we are going to arrive at ONLY one spot once we get there.  Nonetheless, from our current perspective, we cannot rule out extremely bearish or extremely bullish scenarios, even though the probabilities seem to be on a kind of upwardly skewed bell curve.

In other words you believe the price will stay below 3K with probability 15% and below 5K with 30% probability for the next 3 years? I wouldn't give that much - 1-2% tops. The most important question is when the effect of mass adoption (including Wall Street companies) is about to happen? I don't think we are near that event. Not even close. So the price will continue to follow its previous pattern. For the last 4 years we had 100 fold increase between the lowest point and the ATH in 2017. It is logical that the same increase will happen in a similar time frame unless the mass adoption is near completition. But let's say that it goes much slower, say 1/4 of the speed of the previous pattern. In other words 6K->600k/4=150k is achievable price within 4 years. But let's say it is not highly probable. Then again, I think that 40K is absolutely normal price in the next 4 years.

I think he did not put much effort in exact %. He even said so.  But what bothers me most in such predictions. And also in predictions from both of you. About what price are you talking about. About the ATH, of the bottom or of the average? 2018 price could be $15000 or $6000 so far. That is quite a difference.
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October 14, 2018, 02:58:54 PM
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October 14, 2018, 03:07:47 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

For the last 4 years we had 100 fold increase between the lowest point and the ATH in 2017. It is logical that the same increase will happen in a similar time frame unless the mass adoption is near completition.

How can you assume that there will be a repeat of the 100x, but not assume that there will be a repeat of the 0.15x?

It'll quite possibly be neither btw.

Quote
In other words you believe the price will stay below 3K with probability 15% and below 5K with 30% probability for the next 3 years? I wouldn't give that much - 1-2% tops.

I don't believe he said price would stay under, just that it could be that price at point x. It's also 8-15% and 17-30% respectively.
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October 14, 2018, 03:10:39 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (2), BobLawblaw (1), Raja_MBZ (1)



WAGESLAVES = buy bitcoin = financial independent = good sleep
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October 14, 2018, 03:33:18 PM



WAGESLAVES = buy bitcoin = financial independent = good sleep bad sleep, can't stop perusing over charts

fixed
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October 14, 2018, 03:35:35 PM

^
Good point
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October 14, 2018, 04:06:37 PM
Merited by Biodom (1)

12288$$$$

12/10/2018 IntroVert Sad
15/10/2018 explorer
18/10/2018 Searing
26/10/2018 kurious
09/11/2018 fabiorem
15/11/2018 bitserve
20/11/2018 Globb0
22/11/2018 Last of the V8s
01/12/2018 Alexander_Z
07/03/2019 CoinCube
15/04/2019 Spaceman_Spiff_Original
20/06/2019 bitebits
13/12/2019 nikauforest
10/04/2020 yefi
05/09/2020 samson   
23/06/2021 fortune143             


and another falls off ........................ only 15 left on this one


Yep, I'm toaster city here soon! (Ack!). At least have the BTC price PUMP some, before I get dumped off the list. The price of BTC is so 'embarrassing' from

my dreams, when I made this bet! (alas, gone along with my supermodel trophy wife goal at 100k BTC...alas) Sad
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October 14, 2018, 04:12:41 PM



WAGESLAVES = buy bitcoin = financial independent = good sleep bad sleep, can't stop perusing over charts

fixed

Nope. HODLers don't care about charts!
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October 14, 2018, 04:23:24 PM



WAGESLAVES = buy bitcoin = financial independent = good sleep bad sleep, can't stop perusing over charts

fixed

Nope. HODLers don't care about charts!

Hodlers don’t, but starting wageslaves surely do care Roll Eyes
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October 14, 2018, 04:29:54 PM
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my dreams, when I made this bet! (alas, gone along with my supermodel trophy wife goal at 100k BTC...alas) Sad

at 100K, 'trophy wife' coefficient is probably 1K btc, no less.
Alas, I might have been overestimating associated expenses.
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