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Question: When will bitcoin reach the top of this bull market (i.e. when will it moon)?
Topped at $13,880 in June - 9 (6.3%)
H2 2019 - 15 (10.5%)
H1 2020 - 27 (18.9%)
H2 2020 - 26 (18.2%)
H1 2021 - 11 (7.7%)
H2 2021 - 28 (19.6%)
H1 2022 - 6 (4.2%)
H2 2022 - 4 (2.8%)
H1 2023 - 0 (0%)
H2 2023 - 2 (1.4%)
2024 or Later - 15 (10.5%)
Total Voters: 143

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21287023 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (102 posts by 19 users deleted.)
kenzawak
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November 20, 2018, 05:02:02 AM

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JayJuanGee
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November 20, 2018, 05:03:32 AM

At least no one is saying to buy the dip... Not sure if that is good or bad though.

They are not?

You believe that we are in a falling knife situation?

There are probably several of us who participate in this thread who have engaged in plenty of attempts to catch the falling knife that don't seem to work very well in the short-run, but in the longer run, they have tended to pay off.

Even if we go down from here, as I type, we are still more than 18x up from our largely $250 price floating point from 2015.

Even if the value of the BTC portfolio of many of us is likely less than 18x up, we are still in  a not too bad place.

I am still buying the dip... but I am starting to feel a little bit like how I felt in September 2017... remember when the BTC price dropped below $3k, and such price drop seemed to have gone below $3k quite rapidly and beyond expectations.

Gosh, gosh, gosh.  $3k possible again, or would a drop below $5k cause a similar feeling as the drop in september 2017?

Yes, the september 2017 dump was UGLY.

Part of my problem on the september 2017 dump was that I had gone on a trip, so when the price dumped, I had pretty much used up all of my funds that was on the exchanges, and I was not able to move funds around .. so I felt kind of trapped.  I thought that the subsequent price rise, had allowed me to lessen the likelihood of something like that happening again... but this one could be bringing back those kinds of memories in which I am running out of exchange fiat...

Unfortunately I already got my hands badly cut from the falling knifes. And not much remaining (trading) FIAT anyways.

You are correct that it remains so damned tempting to use up more and more fiat when the price gets stuck in a range for so long (including the price range in which $5,800 seemed to had been the bottom).

I am tempted to set some limit orders for all the remaining or even market buy and forget about Bitcoin for a long while as I did during most of 2014 and 2015. It paid off to be honest.

Sometimes, set it and forget it can be good, and I understand that running out of money can be a bit of a bitch.

Sometimes, just moving out the amounts can be reassuring, just to feel that you have some skin in the game.

Let's say that you are down to your last $1,000.  In that case, you could set buy orders of $100 every $250 down (which would be 10 buy orders). that would allow you to have fiat for orders lower than $3k.  Even if you have less than $1k, you could still create either smaller amounts or larger increments or both.

Many people have a set amount of money that is in their current funds, and they also may or may not have a cashflow that allows them an amount of possible additional $10 per month or $100 or $1,000 or whatever that amount is that can be plugged into their cashflow expectations..   If the extra money comes at certain days of the month, it can be plugged into the available amounts, and does not need to be used right away, and it should not matter whether the price is up or down, the cashflow amount gets plugged in within a reasonable period of time after it comes available, which of course, such cashflow would less likely to be urgent if the BTC price jumps up $1k from here as compared if BTC prices were to jump down an additional $1k from here.


What can I say, your methodical plan of selling on the way up has proven much more effective than mine.

There is no need for anyone to compete, and surely, sometimes any of us can run out of money or need to reallocate in order that we are prepared for more extreme situations.  Of course, one could argue that I bought back way too much BTC in the supra $10k range, but we cannot really be sure if the BTC price is going to continue down or to proceed up.. and the better scenario is merely to attempt to prepare for as much down that seems to be reasonable and even to account for some of the extreme possibilities (which $3k has continuously been within my preparation range, and surely it is going to hurt even more to go a lot further below $3k because that is not as much within my own preparation expectations (even the more extreme scenarios that we know can happen in bitcoinlandia).


I messed all up when I kept reducing the amount of trading until a point where I was trading with less than 5-10% of my total "cold" stash. My trades were not bad overall but what difference did I expect to make with that little proportion?

I understand that peeps have a trading stash and also an overall stash, but personally, I like to consider my trading stash to be a portion of my overall stash.

So for example if I were to own a total of 10 BTC, I might sell 1% of that total for every 10% that the BTC price goes up.  So, yeah, maybe I am only selling .1 BTC and seemingly lesser quantity every time that the BTC price goes up 10%.  So if the BTC price goes up 100%, maybe i have sold 1BTC, but then my next sell would only be .09BTC, rather than .1BTC, but it seems that I am also buying back BTC and the price never goes directly in one direction.  Further, I can keep a decent portion of my BTC in cold storage (or offline) because it seems that I rarely end up selling more than 10% of the total stash..   So, a decent portion of the stash is kept offline, even though the whole portfolio value is used in order to calculate how much I am authorizing myself to sell....

For some reason it works out, and if the totality of the BTC price goes up 1,000%, then it seems that I tend to still retain more than 10% of the stash in bitcoin and perhaps getting up to 10% in fiat. somehow it seems to continue to work out because even when BTC prices went up to $19,666, I still might have had about 88% of the value in BTC.. and maybe 12% in fiat - even though the BTC price had pretty much gone straight up..  

The principle on the way down is just to attempt to make sure that you never run out of cash.. which can be tricky, as you already indicated.
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November 20, 2018, 05:07:38 AM

Is crypto done?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Byl3hl5r6OA
jojo69
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November 20, 2018, 05:07:50 AM

good fucking grief

I'm out for a sleep shift, fully expect to wake up to a 3 handle

don't do anything rash guys
JayJuanGee
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November 20, 2018, 05:10:28 AM

I was making my new tentative conclusion about you... not XhomerX.

Currently in my thinking, XhomerX has very decent odds of being a real and regular kind of peep, and I recall that about less than a year ago, he became more creative with his memes, and recently moved on to hats. 

Surely, anyone in these here forums might not be a real peep, so I cannot say anything with certainty... but my tentative conclusion about you has become.. micpeep is not the one real peep that s/he/it portrays himself/herself/itself to be.  Shocked Shocked   In other words, peeps reading and participating in this forum should take your supposed personal information with a considerable grain of salt.  Cheesy Cheesy   Tongue   (and maybe more reasonably consider it as a team rather than a real peep....  Embarrassed  ). 
jjg..you've lost it..I personally think the Goose is the "realist" character on the Wall.

O.k.   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

You been gone from this thread, but you want to believe in characters in a thread because you want to believe...


Yeah, right...    Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

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November 20, 2018, 05:10:33 AM

Buy order money stacking up on bitstamp. Up 45% 69mil since the drop from 6400.
Either that money is readying up or its a trap.
Hodl my beer, going to check

I just keep expecting the worse.

what prices are these at

4,100BTC to be bought @ 4K

Whoops, now only 60mil stacked up, but you get the drift.

At least the band-aid isn't coming off slowly. $4600 the new $6400?
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November 20, 2018, 05:11:40 AM

good fucking grief

I'm out for a sleep shift, fully expect to wake up to a 3 handle

don't do anything rash guys

yeah me too
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November 20, 2018, 05:12:30 AM


At least the band-aid isn't coming off slowly.

That's the only good thing here
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November 20, 2018, 05:14:57 AM

prepare your selves (emotionally) for 2-3k
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November 20, 2018, 05:15:59 AM

prepare your selves (emotionally) for 2-3k


I don't want too, good advice though I think.

4500, fuck it.
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November 20, 2018, 05:18:04 AM

Preparing myself for surviving next two months. Want to forget that I own bitcoin.
Any tips?

Capitulate
JayJuanGee
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November 20, 2018, 05:19:16 AM

[ edited out]
Man, you need to take a step back, and get a sense of humor. Geez Louise don't be so full of yourself all the time, sucka! I am pretty certain you are the only one in this thread that took this clear joke personally.

You are pretty certainly wrong.

Why would I take your comment personally.  I just said that it was not accurate.  There is a difference between comment substantively about something inaccurate and taking something personal.  You should know that, sucka.     Roll Eyes Roll Eyes    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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November 20, 2018, 05:20:17 AM

what pisses me off about this whole thing, is the people who celebrate it.

Bitcoin is what can free people from financial oppression and ever increasing loss of fiat money through inflation. Yet, people who shouldn't want this thing to die do. How the hell can you hate freedom, which in my mind is what btc is.
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November 20, 2018, 05:23:05 AM

4750 great price Smiley are we flying further down to 4k?
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November 20, 2018, 05:23:37 AM

what pisses me off about this whole thing, is the people who celebrate it.

Bitcoin is what can free people from financial oppression and ever increasing loss of fiat money through inflation. Yet, people who shouldn't want this thing to die do. How the hell can you hate freedom, which in my mind is what btc is.

Most don't realize that. Most saw 100% price increase and started thinking "I want a lambo...time to buy some of this bitcoin thing".


The reality is...no matter how much things are advancing, less merchants are accepting bitcoin. Mainly thanks to Coinbase dropping their merchant sector and Bitpay switching to BCH.

The whole point of bitcoin is slowly degrading. I used to be able to live on bitcoin. Now I'm paying for hotels online with a credit card.
JayJuanGee
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November 20, 2018, 05:28:37 AM

well its still looking like a disaster out there. No solid bounce.

I'm wondering what were the reasons for the bottoming period in 2014/15. I always thought it might of been that the mining costs at the time made a floor at that price, but I never looked into it. Does anyone know if the mining price was around the 200 level in 2014/15?

Bitstamp getting hacked caused the $150 bottom in 2015. At that time it was the biggest exchange.

I don't mean the specific bottom, I mean the time when it was moving between 200-300, what kept it falling further? was it just no more sellers, the miners stopped selling, or more buyers coming into the market?

It was between $200 and $300 for more than 8 months, and the bearwhales could not get the price to go down further... After NOT being able to get the price to go down more, for so long, there was only on direction left, correct?

Sure, but I'm curious on a few things, specifically the price rallies during that time and lack of flat movement. The lack of movement (flat periods) may of been there, I just can't remember, but we are certainly not getting many rallies. There was a big one after it hit 150 and the price, then down to 220 area then up to 300 then back down to 220, then back to 300 then back to 200, then the rest is history.

It seems to me that there was the volume and maybe a few new entrants back then to do it, my concern is that I'm not seeing that right now, I guess we could just be too early in the cycle.

Of course, you can zoom in on some historical bitcoin charts to attempt to study the BTC price movement dynamics for that time period.

Here are 10 days in July 2015.

https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg60zig2-hourzczsg2015-07-08zeg2015-07-17ztgMzm1g10zm2g25zv

I recall specifically that there were several attempts to drive BTC's price below $200, and only a couple of them were successful, even though there were more attempts.

Yes, when you are going through it, you consider that it is going to recover, and of course, volume of the time is going to be different from volume of this time, but you can still study the charts and attempt to extrapolate reasonable comparison conclusions.

One interesting thing about that period is that it took longer to get down into the $200s, but once it dropped into the $200's it largely stayed there for more than 8 months.  So, BTC breached below $200 early in the year.. and only rose above $300 once, until late October / early November 2015 when the price shot up to $500.. and it was pretty much all over at that point, even though many of us likely did not realize such until late May 2016 when BTC broke above $500 again.
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November 20, 2018, 05:32:04 AM

While Bitcoin Is Down, Big Players Continue To Pour Money And Faith Into Blockchain

https://www.forbes.com/sites/yoavvilner/2018/11/19/while-bitcoin-is-down-big-players-continue-to-pour-money-and-faith-into-blockchain/#2190b4b1eb8b
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November 20, 2018, 05:38:10 AM

what pisses me off about this whole thing, is the people who celebrate it.

Bitcoin is what can free people from financial oppression and ever increasing loss of fiat money through inflation. Yet, people who shouldn't want this thing to die do. How the hell can you hate freedom, which in my mind is what btc is.

Most don't realize that. Most saw 100% price increase and started thinking "I want a lambo...time to buy some of this bitcoin thing".


The reality is...no matter how much things are advancing, less merchants are accepting bitcoin. Mainly thanks to Coinbase dropping their merchant sector and Bitpay switching to BCH.

The whole point of bitcoin is slowly degrading. I used to be able to live on bitcoin. Now I'm paying for hotels online with a credit card.

This is kind of disturbing, I didn't realize that it is getting harder and not easier. You've been here for a while Elwar, what do you think of the future of btc and it's prices?
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November 20, 2018, 05:40:30 AM


Blockchain is not bitcoin though is it. So does that really help?
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November 20, 2018, 05:52:15 AM
Merited by Paashaas (5)

XRP holding 2e spot and bCash down to spot 5 at Coinmarketcap (-41%)  Cheesy

 Nice to see bCash getting it's comeuppance.  This gold hat also has a silver lining.



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