Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Icygreen]

mY BeAnIe BaBiEs ArE gOiNg To MaKe Me So RiCh.

Say goodbye trolls

[JayJuanGee]

Buttcoin is coming to an end.

Perhaps you ought to put together a well thought out post, giving us your reasons for coming to this conclusion. Enlarging your text does not make your warning very compelling.

ALL CAPS, DIRECTED HIGHLIGHTING , CHANGING THE TEXT COLOR AND REPETITION OF KEY WORDS WORKS MUCH  MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MOAR BETTER.  



SEE YOU READ THE CONTENTS OF THIS HERE POST, RIGHT?

[bones261]

Your point seems to be that first mover advantage is everything. I agree, when comparing Bitcoin to alt coins. But I don't consider forks of Bitcoin as alt coins. I see them as different implementations trying to reach the same goal.

Please advise how you feel that BCH met the criteria of Nakamoto consensus as briefly described in the last section of the white paper. AFAIK, the BCH chain never was the chain of most work at any moment. Also, the BCH chain was not compatible with the BTC chain from the moment it split due to it invoking replay protection. It's definitely an "alternative" to BTC and therefore is an altcoin. At least when BU was running on the BTC chain, it was totally compatible with BTC. It's emergent consensus would have let the miners decide via Nakamoto consensus how large the blocks were. BU qualified as a "different implementation." BCH ABC does not.

They vote with their CPU power, expressing their acceptance of
valid blocks by working on extending them and rejecting invalid blocks by refusing to work on
them.  Any needed rules and incentives can be enforced with this consensus mechanism.

https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf

I have no idea if LN will be free of goverment interference or not. Maybe some countries will force all Bitcoin transactions through government controlled nodes and sending freely on chain would be illegal (enforced by deep packet inspection). I don't think anyone really knows how LN will end up. I hold Bitcoin forks to hedge against the possibility of LN becoming a failure.

Since LN is a second layer, if it fails, then 1st layer, BTC, will still function. It is better to argue that segwit is somehow vulnerable or insecure. If true, and it can't be modified or patched. then that is an issue. However, I'm not certain it is indeed insurmountable to come up with a patch, as some would argue, if a vulnerability was found. May be quite painful, but not impossible.

[Icygreen]

That didn't happen, really? Where?  I'll be so jelly but inspired to set some ridiculous low bids

[Toxic2040]

Pounding that resistance level..  Keep the coals a coming boys.




Rejected again at $4.325k...  Now we see if we have any support at $4.275k
1h

[Elwar]

A bit strange but made me think: https://www.epsilontheory.com/whats-your-metagame-an-open-letter-to-the-crypto-community/

Umm...the guy said a whole lot of nothing with a lot of words.

Ending with "if you like what I just said, go to this epsilon site to learn more".

The whole article sounded like someone who just learned about Bitcoin and was like "hey guys...I know this Bitcoin thing was made just to get people rich, but have you ever thought that it could be used for liberty?".  

2009 called...they want their whole point of Bitcoin's existence back.

[nanobtc]

{EDIT}

Food is being destroyed.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-grains/harvesting-in-a-trade-war-u-s-crops-rot-as-storage-costs-soar-idUSKCN1NQ0GA

Fontenot plowed under 1,000 of his 1,700 soybean acres this fall, chopping plants into the dirt instead of harvesting more than $300,000 worth of beans.

This is so 1930ies, apart from us being in Depression (so far).

Fake/incorrect/hearsay news, or idiot farmer. Many news outlets make up their own words.

I know soybeans. Anyone who has a thousand + acres of soybeans (at least in North America) has surely forsaken "plowing" for land tillage decades ago. That is so 1960's.

[fairyvibes]

At least the US government won't be getting any money from me this year because of these losses.

[jojo69]

who let all the riffraff in?

[nanobtc]

@Theymos Bring back newbie jail.

[bitserve]

Fuck, for one second I thought I had somehow felt out of WO and into the wild side of the forum.

We were supposed to be safe here!

[HairyMaclairy]

This is like a verbal DDOS.

[bones261]

@infrofront Where are you? Bad freeverse sin incoming. Please delete!

[HairyMaclairy]

He is probably allowd to sleep for three hours a night

[El duderino_]

good moment to go into my HODLcave

Hodling to zero is so yesterday.  Real men buy all the way to zero.

You absolutely don’t know how far i’m in BTC

[Icygreen]

good moment to go into my HODLcave

Hodling to zero is so yesterday.  Real men buy all the way to zero.

You absolutely don’t know how far i’m in BTC

Umm.. I'm pretty sure you told us once, not that I'll repeat but ya. 

[kaeltr]

Hmm, that volume really looks weak.

Hope 3800$ will hold.

 

[Elwar]

So in 2014-2015 the price was down from the all time high. The reality is that the price shooting up to $1200 a year after it was about $12 was a bit premature. But the halving dislodged the supply from demand in a way that nobody really knew what to expect since it was completely new to the market. The price came down to more reasonable levels for the amount of bitcoins coming into the market vs the demand.

In 2016 there was another halving. This time people anticipated that the price would rise like in 2012 so they began buying. The same thing happened again, the supply and demand were dislodged and people misjudged how that would affect the price. But this time there were some larger investors involved since institutions were able to dip their toes into it. Thus the rise to $20k.

The price right now reflects the fact that there are some large institutions with their money in bitcoin but I believe we found the equilibrium of supply and demand around the $6400 range. Though that may have been due to remnants of the FOMO folks still hoping for recovery. Right now people are unreasonably dumping but we still may have some FOMO hold outs that are not yet desperate to leave, so the price may still go down further until they are scared out of the market. Institutions may even start dropping off at times of investor reporting or other institutional reasons. Some may recognize this as a cycle and double down (but don't trust Wall Street folks to be that smart).

The key here is that there is not another halving until 2020. So we will be in this price discovery phase for at least a year.

If history repeats itself, the few remaining hodlers will desperately be telling people a year from now "the halving is coming...hold on just a little longer!...Please!...".

Or, people who saw that the price began to rise a few months before the last halving may start putting their money in a few months before a few months before the halving.

Either way, I would say at least until next fall you should not expect to see any decent prices. News, technical advances, etc. never really have any impact on the price (at least in the short term, it just provides fundamentals in the long term).

I wish this were not the case as I will be selling seasteads starting next year. Coinciding with a market boom would be ideal. But that's just the reality of how the market reacts to halvings.

Then again, who knows...past does not predict future...but we can see some similarities.

[kaeltr]

^
I give it until the end of the year.
If we get back to 6500$ by then it would be very bullish, imho.

Otherwise we just entered the slope of hope.


EDIT: thanks for the merit, btw

[El duderino_]

good moment to go into my HODLcave

Hodling to zero is so yesterday.  Real men buy all the way to zero.

You absolutely don’t know how far i’m in BTC

Umm.. I'm pretty sure you told us once, not that I'll repeat but ya. 

Mmm absolutely doesn’t know that anymore but played quiet a lot of poker etc so Maybe Some things must have been changed by now