Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[rebal15]

Aaaah you’re that other JJG account
I knew he had multi accounts and peeps cruising the forum


and always accusing other people ..........................

He hardly accuse other people of having multi-accounts, but he has suggested, several times, that micpeep might better be understood as either micteam or perhaps mic-astroturf.       

Trollgoossens loves accusing people. It is a his/her habit. So all you are gonna accused without any reason.

[Ibian]

Is there a list of countries that have taken a definitive stance on the legality and future of bitcoin within its borders, especially in regards to taxation?

[kurious]

https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/avmnjs/daily_discussion_thursday_february_28_2019/

gr8ful4
58 points
·
11 hours ago
·
edited 11 hours ago
Without going much into detail, I'd like to share this long term view with you.



"For 8 years I'm trading the multi-year cycles in this market. More than anything else I focus on market psychology. I use TA, FA and SA only to optimize my entries and targets. In short: each cycle, each top and each floor has its own character. Each cycle builds upon an earlier cycle.

Knowing the character and knowing the development path ahead can give incredibly detailed insights into what to expect next.

Looking at how we broke down from 6k compared to earlier huge break downs lets me assume that the market participants were prepared for such an event. They even anticipated it. No one even tried catching the knife. They just let it fall.

There was only one true capitulation event in BTC history and it was back in 2011. 2013 was a short lived capitulation event triggered by a shitty and lagging exchange which exaggerated every move. 2015 capitulation was forced by Mt. Gox and other exchange hacks. What seemed a "true" capitulation to most was the best buying opportunity for insiders ever.

After loading up in late 2011. I accumulated vast amounts in the first half of 2015. Back then BTC was still small. Some thought it was dead, but seeing the infight between all the fractions in the ecosystem made it clear, that they are fighting for something very valuable!

Back to our anticipated capitulation event of late 2018. I think there is no one seriously doubting anymore that cryptos are here to stay. That means a true capitulation event is (almost) impossible to occur after it already lost 84%. The only thing that can happen is media manipulation of the masses. But people seeing institutions adopt "blockchain" at every corner aren't stupid and won't give in easily. That said there is tremendous risk for market makers and whales to push price below a certain point, because they always have to factor in re-accumulation + ideally some margin for profits to make the effort worthwhile."

I have been pondering on how much 2015-2016 matches 2019.  I took daily data open/high/low/close and looked at the ratio of the two lows; 152 to 3122 (actually in Dec '18) which seems an obvious way to work.

Then I have tried to overlay on spreadsheets the same prices 'post the bottom', to see if there is any kind of a similar pattern.  It didn't correlate on a daily basis enough (using the ratio as a factor) for it to be valuable - as it seems to be currently running lower.  I shifted to looking at the same 'time frame', that is; correlating from mid Jan 19, rather than the December 18 low, but neither are close using the same ratio (although it is roughly the same amount 'out' if you zoom out).

The only conclusion I can make so far, is relevant to the above post.  This is that the sharp final snap down didn't happen, so it follows there was not a sharp snap back up afterwards of the same order as last time.

So far the only thing to do to get a closer match has been to to change the 'ratio' I am using in % terms.  This looks much closer in terms of matching the range of activity post bottom (on the tiny data set since).  If this stays close for a while - it will simply mean we are heading for a curve with not as high a peak from the Dec 18 bottom in % terms.

I will try to tweak this over the coming months and see if it has any value, but if anyone else better at working this out wants to try - and can factor in more sophisticated statistical analysis (standard deviation etc.) that would be good...

EDIT: for sense.

[cool4y]

41 Million Dollars longs were liquidated on Bitmex. REKT 

[cool4y]

That's a pretty accurate summary of those fake coins 

[bitserve]

With all due respect, why are we supposed to repeat prior flat mo for mo?

So far, at a macro level, it matches almost exactly.  Don’t ask me why, I just work here.

Everyone expected a plunge in January because it would be the same as in 2015, but it happened in December instead, so not really almost exactly.
I grant you that there is some similarity so far, but IMHO, this would go away soon.

One of the bigger differences will probably be that the next bull run won't be as much explosive as the previous ones. Otherwise Bitcoin would reach a ridiculous price... something I don't think will happen with just one single bull run. The curve must tend to gradually flatten. How much? Noone knows.

We keep declining above 80% (84-94%) after each peak, however, we increase smaller and smaller % in each cycle.
This would result in a lower low after a couple of cycles.
If the decreasing trend in X-factor increase of each peak (X36 to X17 to X8 to X3.76 to X1.77; bold numbers indicate what already happened) is followed by about 84% plunge each time, then btc would peak at about 595K and then starts declining with lower lows for both peak and trough each time 595K (peak) to 95K (trough), then 95K to 168K (peak), then 168K to 27K (trough), etc.

$595K? See? That's what I mean by a ridiculously high price for next bull run. Even if I would love to be wrong... that's not gonna happen.

Also I forgot to say that the next bear market I don't expect it to dump as hard as previous ones.

Of course we are just speculating here. We will find out "soon"... during the next couple of years, maybe three.

[El duderino_]

Micro pump there are thou

[El duderino_]

This has been a bullish dump

 I was actually, honestly, perplexed with the dump today, and happy to see a prompt recovery.

 The dump was counter to all the momentum that is slowly building.

 HODL on, HODLers.

BoB, guess what we WO's are doing

[El duderino_]

https://twitter.com/RedditBTC/status/1100683757546287104

paashaas how many nodes do you have running? 

Actually, i am quite suprised by the amounth of people in The Netherlands running a node.

I use a Casa Node. Pretty much straight forward device. I do it for fun, not interested trying to squeez a $ out of it.

i was to, Belgian's are running far behind with BTC etc

good i'm one of the Belgian's that on board

[El duderino_]

Aaaah you’re that other JJG account
I knew he had multi accounts and peeps cruising the forum


and always accusing other people ..........................

He hardly accuse other people of having multi-accounts, but he has suggested, several times, that micpeep might better be understood as either micteam or perhaps mic-astroturf.       

  

just wanted to post that GIF.....as a lebowski lover...

[El duderino_]

Trollgoossens loves accusing people. It is a his/her habit. So all you are gonna accused without any reason.

little ALT-account, i hardly never accuse anybody of anything...... you're one of the only ones that i accuse of being a TROLL

[HairyMaclairy]

https://breakermag.com/heres-how-the-2-09-million-eos-hack-really-happened/

[HairyMaclairy]

I will try to tweak this over the coming months and see if it has any value, but if anyone else better at working this out wants to try - and can factor in more sophisticated statistical analysis (standard deviation etc.) that would be good..

I think calculating the correlation coefficient will give you what you want.  Expect it will be quite high. 

[Majormax]

Bitcoin Whales Have Been Acquiring Large Amounts of Cryptocurrency in Past Two Months

https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2019/02/bitcoin-whales-have-been-acquiring-large-amounts-of-cryptocurrency-in-past-2-months/

"According to the “top 100 rich list” for cryptocurrency, compiled by Bitcoin.com, there are certain “whale wallets” that have been steadily increasing their crypto holdings - with every drop the digital asset market has experienced since December 2017. When crypto prices plummeted on February 24th, a number of whales reportedly bought large amounts of bitcoin (BTC) and bitcoin cash (BCH).
...
Between December 17th, 2018 and February 25th, 2019, the four largest wallets associated with the exchanges (mentioned above) had increased their holdings by 2,879 BTC, an amount valued at approximately $10.8 million. In comparison, the remaining top 100 largest crypto addresses accumulated 151,505 BTC, which is currently valued at over $577 million according to CryptoCompare data."

Surely that's not a good sign ? It is the opposite of wider distribution.

A distribution from larger wallets to smaller/new holders would be more bullish.

[Majormax]

When moon?

 Just a little bit more patience.

 The moon-rise has begun, it's just off to a very slow start.

Simple answer, best answer.

Don't be disappointed if we are still below 5k this time next year.

[ivomm]

That's a pretty accurate summary of those fake coins  

Bcash SV crashing hard now, despite the pathetic pump tries of this cunt! When the trio CW, Ver and Wu started the war against Bitcoin in 2017, I was sure we will see soon the devastation of their wealth. Every evil will be punished! At the same time Bitcoin hold its position above 3K, and all signs show that 2017 bull run is only a hint of the real bull run which is coming. Life is good!

[kenzawak]

Not sure you guys read this already :

The software is substantially complete. The main period of development was a while ago; the current work is mainly just maintenance & relatively minor improvements. Try running it yourself and you'll find that it's working, fast, and nearly feature-complete.

The things blocking a transition from the current software to the new software are:
 - There hasn't been enough testing. I think that immediately after transition, a variety of small missed features, bugs, and performance issues would crop up. As a result, if the transition happened now (which is technically possible!), I'd expect the post-transition user experience to be poor for months while these things are fixed, which I don't want.
 - I am the only bitcointalk.org sysadmin and on-demand programmer, and I'm used to the current software. Furthermore, I need to frequently make changes to the current software, but each change I make might require alterations to Epochtalk, which is problematic.
 - The current PHP software, while ugly and sub-optimal in many ways, performs well, especially since I have extensively modified the backend to add features and improve performance. So I don't feel much urgency.
 - The data-transition procedure still has a few known minor bugs.
 
We continue to work on these issues. I think that ultimately I may need to hire one or more full-time people, since a big problem is that the full transition is likely to create a ton of work which I won't be able to effectively handle alone.

The software is not vaporware (it's long existed in a runnable state, and is currently basically feature-complete), and is not abandoned (look at the git commit log). If anyone is unhappy with the progress, I invite them to take the Epochtalk code and create a competing forum with it; since they won't have to worry about the transition issues, they'd have a much easier time, and their testing will also end up helping us.

In short: If you want the software quicker, go run your own forum with it, and work to get any problems or missing features you find resolved via bug reports, etc. This would increase public interest, provide much-needed testing, and I might even hire you to work on bitcointalk.org when we're ready to do the final transition here.

[El duderino_]

When moon?

 Just a little bit more patience.

 The moon-rise has begun, it's just off to a very slow start.

Simple answer, best answer.

Don't be disappointed if we are still below 5k this time next year.

OF-course i'm disappointed if were below 5K next year, (i will not regret HODLing and will keep on HODLing), but i would be disappointed cause i think one year from now is a very long time to go over 5K......and were then in the pre-halving zone
but yeah if the narrative would say below 5K then thats what i'll be following
but i think it will do a lot better then that, time will tell and no one else, not me not you, even our very own TA-wizard HM can only guess/assume whats it gonna be

time will tell

and if its there next year its a WIN on its own every year is a year longer of being adopted

[bitserve]

When moon?

 Just a little bit more patience.

 The moon-rise has begun, it's just off to a very slow start.

Simple answer, best answer.

Don't be disappointed if we are still below 5k this time next year.

OF-course i'm disappointed if were below 5K next year, (i will not regret HODLing and will keep on HODLing), but i would be disappointed cause i think one year from now is a very long time to go over 5K......and were then in the pre-halving zone
but yeah if the narrative would say below 5K then thats what i'll be following
but i think it will do a lot better then that, time will tell and no one else, not me not you, even our very own TA-wizard HM can only guess/assume whats it gonna be

time will tell

Please take into account that most of the previous rises has not been pre-halving but POST-halving. Being under $5K in one year from now is not completely out of the cards. Two years from now.... that would be way different.

P.S.: If I had to bet... I would say around $6-12K one year from now. Totally straight out my ass.

[El duderino_]

When moon?

 Just a little bit more patience.

 The moon-rise has begun, it's just off to a very slow start.

Simple answer, best answer.

Don't be disappointed if we are still below 5k this time next year.

OF-course i'm disappointed if were below 5K next year, (i will not regret HODLing and will keep on HODLing), but i would be disappointed cause i think one year from now is a very long time to go over 5K......and were then in the pre-halving zone
but yeah if the narrative would say below 5K then thats what i'll be following
but i think it will do a lot better then that, time will tell and no one else, not me not you, even our very own TA-wizard HM can only guess/assume whats it gonna be

time will tell

Please take into account that most of the previous rises has not been pre-halving but POST-halving. Being under $5K in one year from now is not completely out of the cards. Two years from now.... that would be way different.

P.S.: If I had to bet... I would say around $6-12K one year from now. Totally straight out my ass.

sounds so much better in my ears

just below 5K would be extremely boring, how about BoB's liver, BTC must be thinking of that, and give hime a nice pump to keep him healthy