Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Toxic2040]

The way I see it is we move up to the -0.236 and over the $5.5k range upwards or we are going to fall off this cloud..perhaps spectacularly. Consolidation at the $5k range would also be a good sign though not as bullish. If we do fall back to a pattern of lower lows getting to a end of year 10k target diminish. I dont know about you but years end of 2019 is starting to feel  like its closing in and not so far off to me. Gainz will continue until moral improves. #dyor

D

#stronghands'19 

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[Biodom]

Everyone expects the same as the last cycle or two.
I think that it would be different: something resembling 2013.

An approximate scenario: Hard up starting by the end of summer 2019, early fall (maybe 3.7K-6K oscillation beforehand), going much further than expected, could be 20K or even higher earlier in 2020 (Q1 or Q2), hard and fast correction to 7-8K, then re-acceleration into the end of 2020 with prices peaking at about 90-160K.
Dems take the Senate, introduce some wealth taxing legislation.
Bitcoin is in a hard correction during 2021-2022, maybe longer, a really long bear market (stock market is crashing as well).
Do you think that these neato 4-year cycles would continue forever?

TL;DR This would be a fast and furious cycle followed by a longer recession.

[Toxic2040]

 actual perceived value vs actual potential value

[JayJuanGee]

I want that correction! Buy order ready at $4600:

A suggestion:   Don’t use round numbers for your limit orders. Put it $20 or $30 above because if the price is going to bounce, it will bounce above $xx00.  If the prices touches $xx00 then it’s going to drop below that amount.

It could eat though half the wall at $4600 and not drop below, but then your order depends on which of the $4600 orders are processed first by the exchange. at $4601 yours should be processed before all the $4600 orders.

Hairy is correct, as seems to be a frequent pattern in recent times with these price and practice matters.

In sum, best practice is that you should be setting your buy orders a bit higher than the round numbers and also your sell orders a bit lower than the round numbers.  

When you assert that price might possibly do x, y or z and half way eat through such round numbers blah blah blah.. you are being both intellectually lazy and likely more greedy than you need to be.    The odds are against you, too, especially if you look at how the BTC price usually behaves and even if you want to attempt to rationalize away your bad practice(s), seeming laziness and lack of desire to improve your approach.  

Yeah but if the wall is at 4620 you need to put your order in @4625 or something. Walls do tend to be on the round numbers but even the walls cut infront of eachother..
Look at the books to place your orders..

Even though I have a system in which I steadfastly follow what Hairy suggested, not placing either my buy orders or my sell orders at round numbers.  I rarely go so far as to structure my orders around random walls on the order book.. unless I just coincidentally notice such walls and I want to get my order filled before that wall is touched upon, as you suggested eddie. 

For me, I would rather just stick with my system that is based on my own attempts to keep emotions out of the matter, so I don't really care very much if the orders get filled or not.. .but like you mentioned if there is some obvious issue or even certain key resistance or support points, then I will attempt to tweak my orders around those kinds of possible sticking points.

[kenzawak]

Ginko has done it again :

https://twitter.com/martik/status/1113037703774396416
https://bitcoinist.com/russia-bitcoin-kremlin-economist/

[JayJuanGee]

Still unanswered: How LN is going to help when Layer 1 is already clogged to the point of uselessness.

We will cross that bridge when we get there.  

If this price pump continues, we could get there next week. Unfortunately, there is no solution on the horizon under discussion.

You are fucking ridiculous on this point, jbreher.  Dumbass BIG BLOCKERS have been acting chicken little on this topic since at least late 2015, and they have been wrong, wrong wrong.. except to the extent to which they have engaged in some spam attacks to attempt to make it look like their wrong chicken little speculations were coming true.

And, get the fuck out of here with your exaggeration that there is no plan in BTC.. because with segwit and other tweaks including lightning network, batching and some other technical mumbo jumbo stuff, BTC transactions are getting processed... and fees also will adjust to help to channel and incentivize transactions too...

so fuck off in your attempting to act like there is neither progress in bitcoin or that there is some kind of supposed emergency situation in bitcoin that justifies a block increase - which is still not necessary, even though you and your dumb BIG blocker buddies keep trying to present such nonsense solutions to increase the block size limits as if they were "obvious solutions," and they are not.. they are just stupid.. and counter to any necessary solution.. you want to break bitcoin like you and your buddies broke your impotent bcash(es) variants?

You claim to be a bitcoiner, but I have to question you with your stubborn continued persistence spouting out such repetitive nonsense that has been debunked over and over and over in the past 3.5 years.  There is no there there.. so focus your lil selfie.  

Once the blocks are full, no additional people can open a LN channel. Nobody can close an LN channel. (Not without out-paying those txs already waiting to be built into a block).

you are speculating about something that has never happened.. Even in December 2017/January 2018 (when your bitmain buddies and Roger Ver had enough money to engage in their spam attack), transactions still went through, as long as higher fees were paid... so if the fees might go up during such clogging periods.   By the way, funny how bitmain is now broke.. ver might not be doing so well.. and maybe still hoping for calvin ayere to keep haning out with you other social pariahs.

Nobody can post evidence of stolen channel funds as a result of counterparty posting an earlier channel state. Nobody can get BTC into or out of exchanges. ...

Let's see how it plays out... sounds like you are making shit up, for the moment.. so let's see if it becomes a BIGGER issue that is does not get resolved... Lots of smart people working and submitting ideas in bitcoin core, so they are likely to continue figuring out a variety of things as they already have been with the passage of time.. And maybe you should be discussing these technical matters in another thread, anyhow?  you fuck with attempts at technical mumbo jumbo, here.

All y'all are hanging your hopes on a promise that has no chance to deliver its stated benefits.

You and your BIG BLOCKER nutjob buddies have already proven yourselves to be inclined towards exaggerations about supposed dire outcomes, and likely going to happen again... with exaggerated points like you are making here.

Sure, LN will have important use cases. But at the cost of crippling the base layer? Collective delusion.

Of course, LN will have important use cases.. at least you recognize that aspect.. and if you think that there some kind of crippling then get the fuck out of here.  Don't use lightning then nor build upon it, and go over to your shitcoin (I mean various bcashes) projects to whine about how horrible bitcoin is, while bitcoin is going to leave those bcashes crappies in the dust in terms of innovations, development, adoption and even ongoing price performance..

[DaRude]

Ginko has done it again :

https://twitter.com/martik/status/1113037703774396416
https://bitcoinist.com/russia-bitcoin-kremlin-economist/

Moscow bought over 10% of all of the BTC in circulation? What clown think tank he claims to work for?

[vroom]

after this small correction we need a bottom post, right?

[JayJuanGee]

5-6k feels just like 500-600 from 2015-2016. And $3k probably was the $200 which isn't  coming back again.

From now on, assuming it'll follow the same pattern, the price may get stuck between $4k and $6k for a year.

Too cheap to sell after seeing $20k but also at the same time, too expensive to buy after seeing sub $4k not long ago.

This, gentlemen is:

Torture.

Welcome to consolidation.

If we bounce in the between $4k and $6k price (consolidation) zone, then 6 months seems reasonable, 8 months seem like a stretch and 12 months seems like too much (in other words 12 months is unacceptable... Go back and work on a better answer, mindrust)..    ...

[JayJuanGee]

bitcoin will fall under 3000 soon
never trust this fake pump

These trolls make it so easy to ignore.

That's alright, we need people like them to make this market more entertaining.

They are also needed in order to keep BTC's price down, because if everyone was smart like us BTC HODLers/accumulators, we would have to pay more than $1million per coin.  Thank you dumb trolls and shills.      

Edit:  Where's roach.. gotta thank that dumb-ass, too.      

[fillippone]

Inspired by Kurious' recent post, I'd like to post about some related things I've been thinking about:

It seems there are two schools of thought regarding the bubble cycle we've just begun.

• That it will be the same length as every other cycle, as dictated by the halvings. Bubble top: late 2021/early 2022
• Or, that the cycles have been lengthening, and therefore our current cycle will be the longest and hit the top later than in previous cycles. Bubble top: late 2022/early 2023

There's a great debate, on this exact subject, between two of the best analysts on crypto twitter here: https://twitter.com/filbfilb/status/1078316170493734918

It seems that scenario 2 is the consensus among the majority of analysts (and previously myself) - that the next bubble will gain a lower percentage than previous bubbles, and it will take longer. Something like this:



However, there are reasons to believe that may not be the case:
[/SNIP]

Whoa. You have to be luck to intercept deep thought posts in WO, where it get quickly devoured in memes and one liners. I’m going to cross reference it in my monthly post to scan for good analysis..

[Lambie Slayer]

Been thinking:

I have been trying to crunch historical prices of late to see if I can spot patterns between data sets from 2015 and 2019. Patterns that might allow me some kind of edge in future price prediction. And not just so I can win one of MicG's games

Obviously I've been trying this because it's apparent that there are established cycles and even uncannily close ratios that appear in Bitcoin related to halvings, absolute bottoms and ATHs.

Many have predicted this cycle will take longer than previously, saying that cycles appear to be getting more drawn out.

However - there is a simple factor at work here which I think means this is not the case, which is that once something is reasonably predictable then you can reasonably anticipate it. For instance, it's not stupid to postulate that it's usually cold in January in the Northern hemisphere, so you pack warm and waterproof items of clothing if you intend to be there and spend time outside. You cannot predict the precise temperature on a given day - but you know it's a safe bet in January it's going to be cold.

What the hell has the weather got to do with Bitcoin?  Well, the more confirmation that the cycle is looking like it's heading for a repeat akin to the past (as sure as the seasons inevitably change) it follows that more people will feel confident in front-running it.  Logically, if it has bottomed and is now almost definitely going up rather than down, then (equally logically) it's batshit crazy not to buy before it gets more expensive.  Especially as the pesky damn digital things are going to be more difficult to acquire, since the supply is decreasing.  OTC is not necessarily going to be so easy, either - and some miners may perhaps delay selling quite so quickly.  The feedback loop will be powerful with so much media interest and the institutional money around, too.

Now - bear with me? Let me spool back to the post-Gox era and the 'bubble/bust' before the 17/18 one we have just come through.

In January 2015 I did buy at the bottom, but not because I had any god-like foresight. Not at all.

Frankly, I didn't know if Bitcoin would ever come back (did anyone for sure?) However, I was underwater with my investment, so the only thing to do was to buy more to average my cost down and make a breakeven more likely in future.  I wasn't certain, I just felt I had to either sell, or double down, and I didn't want to quit.  So, I steeled myself, trusted my instinct and bought a load more.  With 20/20 hindsight it was probably the best financial decision I ever made, but if you'd said to me then that the bitcoins I had just bought for sub 200 bucks would be worth nearly $20K less than three years later - I would probably have thought you were crazy. Back then this thread had tumbleweed rolling through and sometimes not one post (apart from chart buddy) for hours.

What I am driving at is that today it's just not the same as back then.  Now, we have had bubbles and crashes that look like fractals with some trend regularity being apparent and yes, looking predictable. Now, no one has any illusions that BTC could not easily hit 20K again.  Now, any doubts about increasingly higher prices returning once the bottom is 'obviously' in the rear view mirror will disappear pretty fast.

So, the more the price 'recovers' the more asymmetrical a bet on Bitcoin looks.  5K? A risk? What fucking risk!

Back to my workings on that pattern overlay I mentioned.  Well right now the bunch of models I set up are looking out of sync. Now I may be VERY wrong of course and it's not based on nearly enough data, but it looks to me like it's going faster than it should be.

Certainly some people, including me in my small way, have been steadily accumulating.  Sooner or later of course, no matter what - it had to start to increasingly affect price.  And then, well...  it doesn't take a genius to see that buying now what is already rising again and highly likely to be at a lot higher price level before too long, just makes sense. The feedback loop will be way more powerful. Bitcoin has blown everyone away more than once, fewer and fewer people will be prepared to bet against it anymore. Now, it's got 'previous form'.

And for anyone who has a lot already - it's looking foolish to risk trying price suppression in order to accumulate anymore - not when tens of millions of $ can flip the price up 20% or more in the wee small hours of the morning.

Maybe there isn't so much time left to accumulate at these levels after all?

Also, here's a thing: what if the very supposed 'predictability' of Bitcoin will mean it can't be this time? In a sort of 'Heisenburg's uncertainty principle' way, the very act of having measured it, makes the measurement invalid - as the market is expecting it.

Forgive the long ramble - I am just feeling things are different and any assumptions we have of what 'the cycle' should do and how long it should take are a tad out of date. And I am sure I can't be the only soul on this planet thinking along these lines.

So: what if the common assumptions are indeed totally out of date and it starts running away far earlier than expected?  

Well, I just hope you've already packed your bags for the trip and they are as full as possible.  Don't worry, though - I have a feeling it won't be too cold where we are headed.

In fact, it's probably a good idea to bring your shades.



NB: I sometimes have flights of fancy that are utterly risible, I just wanted to float this for fun. After all, the one thing you can rely on with honey badger - is that it doesn't give a fuck about what you are expecting it to do, right?
DYOR.

Superb comment. It was long but way too good for me to snip out any of it. This good sir is my damn kind of Hopium. So much talk from the Tone Gays and Tyler Jerk offs of the world about the cycles getting longer (the mythical "Longening" as I believe one of our esteemed WO TA experts, Hairy Maclairy, mockingly called it   ) What you are describing could be called the "Shortening" and if it happens then bubbles between halvenings would come faster and crypto winters would end quicker, propelling us to awesome heights quicker than many of the biggest bulls imagine. Mcaffee could keep his dick and the 100k party might even be this year.

This is the kind of Ayahuasca/DMT Hopium smoked by Shamans in the Amazon and I fully support having the 100k party in the Amazon if we make it there this year. I dont think this is the most likely path, but I believe its just as possible or even more likely than the bears calls of longer cycles and 1100 usd lows. A great counter narrative to that kind of FUD.

For more info on Ayahuasca Hopium (note this stuff is the strongest Hopium known to man and very illegal in many countries)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D727ossAE1s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3oIAq8FhU78

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yqtvuzcL84M&has_verified=1

[Toxic2040]

Weekly Cloud overview. #dyor

#stronghands

[Lambie Slayer]

Just for knowing BoB all must be gay-friendly for me or its an absolute NO GO!!!!

Just a "friendly reminder, you don't really "know" bob, just like with any of us.  

You have "met" "his" online persona.  

 

Yeah, but like his online being as many in here, but don’t need to point that @me my Real life is under perfect controll with many real life peeps.....

But one can like Some online talkers or not
And i like a few very much ‘they know for sure’

Is so much lovey dovey healthy?  I wonder.

you love your keyboard

Have you even heard about "non-sequitur"?

your just a strange bird, so one has to do strange to be sense-full to you

Huh?

I am normal.  I just post here from time to time.  

Again.. someone seems to be mixing up online persona with real peeps.  

Snap out of it.  Get a grip, mic. 

From "time to time" 

Its Thursday, so Ill think Ill drop some truth on you old friend

You really wonder if Mic being so friendly to others on this forum is healthy? Of course it is. Being consistently cranky, salty, confrontational, toxic etc in your every day life to everyone around you is extremely unhealthy and wreaks havoc on your physical and mental health. Study after study has demonstrated the negative health consequences of living life as an obstinate prick. It shortens your lifespan and decreases your health and quality of life(Thursdays for instance) for the duration of your shorter life.

Instead of jealously criticizing Mr. Goose for being friendly and well liked here, you should emulate some of his character traits and you will stay alive to hodl longer and maybe bag on JJG thursdays will be called off even. 

[Syke]

This is the kind of Ayahuasca/DMT Hopium smoked by Shamans in the Amazon and I full support having the 100k party in the Amazon if we make it there this year.

No wonder this beer is so good!

[Retina]

Drink beer and feeling good mood relax in the bed looking wall and see BTC Dump/bump

[Lambie Slayer]

I missed this earlier this year, but it appears our Russian Economist claiming Russian oligarchs and companies bought 1.8 million BTC this year to avoid sanctions now and down the road, might be the real thing. I notice one rebuttal in the Bitcoinist.com to this guys claim was a quote from a Russian source saying the gov never bought the coins, but as far as I see the economist said it wasnt the Russian gov who bought the coins but oligarchs and corporations.

https://micky.com.au/video-proves-identity-of-russias-mysterious-bitcoin-bull/

[Lambie Slayer]

This is the kind of Ayahuasca/DMT Hopium smoked by Shamans in the Amazon and I full support having the 100k party in the Amazon if we make it there this year.

No wonder this beer is so good!

Ill take a keg of that please sir!

[Lambie Slayer]

https://micky.com.au/porn-star-reveals-why-cam-girls-love-crypto/

She licks her armpit for Bitcoin. Bullish. 

[nutildah]

Just when you thought he couldn't get any douchier, CSW is now suing people who say he's not Satoshi:

https://cryptoslate.com/craig-wright-filing-lawsuits-against-people-denying-he-is-satoshi-nakamoto/