Hey @JJG! Just wondering, what are the odds of going below $3900 (again) now?
Hahahahaha!!!!
You seem to be in a kind of gloating posture....
Nah, not at this stage. I'll surely be in one "after" (and iff before testing $3900 again) we break into a new ATH!
A little gloating can be fun, and a good thing... especially if you make a historical reference, after we breach new ATH, then there can be time and space for gloating, whether the gloat is true or not.
I will look forward to it... You will gloat, as the BTC price flies through $20k, and I will assert that you are "full of shit", while both of us laugh are way to the bank (in the $30k plus arena.. because we won't be hanging out in the $20ks for very long).
So, yeah, you are correct to point out that BTC prices have moved a considerable distance from $3,900 and presumptively pointed out that the odds have likely gotten greater, than previously, that we will not go below $3,900 ever, ever again.
The odds of going below $3,900 is likely similar to whether the bottom is "in" or not.. maybe slightly higher odds for going below $3,900 than if the bottom is in at $3,122...
Another question is whether we are going to test our support at the $4,200 break out levels. So if testing the bottom of $3,122 might be as high as 46%... then going below $3,900 might be in the 47% arena, and testing $4,200 would be in the 48-49% arena. So currently breaking below $5k seems to be in the 50/50 area.
Honestly, I'm thinking more about the test of $5800 support right now, as it comes way before $4200.
If this upwards price pressure persists, then it is going to be hard to test the various price support levels.
Surely, I don't play around with leverage, but even margin shorts being opened in these price levels cannot rest assured that they are not going to get r3ckt.
Don't forget, we never tested the "major level" of $3000 again after breaking it in 2017 bull run; I know that we can't compare the current mini-run to the last bull run just about yet, as the overall momentum and situation of that run is incomparable to the current run, but still, never forget, it's bitcoin and sh!t can happen any day.
Well, isn't that more or less the same as testing $3,122? I cannot see much difference. If the BTC price were to break below $3,500 then both $3,122 and $3k would have equally high odds of being challenged. Problem with those scenarios seems to be that they have become a whole hell of a lot less probable, because our momentum seems to have converted towards UP, and it is going to take a whole hell-of-a lot of bear FUD or other seemingly realistic negative news to bring this bad boy down towards breaking various support levels that have been created between here and there.
P.S. take my last sMerit!
Thanks.
Let's worry (a bit) about this gap right now:
CME bitcoin futures open today Sunday 17:00 CT.
No need to worry.
BTCgonna do what
BTC does, and we seem to have enough cushion that any of us HODLers should not be worrying too much... and if we are worrying, we have a bit more profits that we could skim off in this $7k price range in order to prepare us for $5,800 or lower, just in case....
Let's say, for example, our total stash is only 5BTC. Let's say that we have been struggling for about the past two years to acquire BTC with every paycheck and upon every price dip. The reality of the matter is that if we really fear going down to $5,800 or lower, we could shave off somewhere between .05 BTC and .25BTC (that is between 1% and 5%) to prepare our BTC portfolio for such eventuality... personally, I would only play with the smaller amounts, but I understand that some guys (and gal) might be willing to risk a higher amount in order to prepare for down... but we should know that we are preparing for both down and up.. accordingly, we have to be able to tweak our holdings, if we are feeling uncomfortable in order to cause more comfort.
I am not always comfortable, but I have sold a bit more than 2% of my BTC portfolio with the price rise from $4,200 to $7,585... Whether I am able to buy those BTC back or not, I remain somewhat neutral in my feelings.... therefore if the price goes down, I will use some of those proceeds to buy back the BTC that I sold, yet if the BTC price does not go down, I am o.k. with that outcome too... because over 96% of my BTC to fiat value remains in BTC...
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