Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Low probability IMV .

"Probability"? Thanks for reminding:

A wild guess: today is the last day to get bitcoin below $3900.

Yes.  The odds of the truth of that assertion are in the less than 25% arena.

So far so good:

Maybe the odds of going below $3,900 again became slightly better than what they were on March 25, but they have not changed by a lot.. I would not even put them above 45% and that 45% is a bit charitable.  You may end up being correct, regarding your guess, but I am not sure what that would be saying, besides you having had gotten lucky in your guess.  Do you find that valuable in how you live your life?  I certainly try to minimize gambling and guessing in how I live my life, but surely once in a while it is fun.. but that is it.. merely fun rather than something to attach much if any significance.

What are the odds of going below $3900 (again) now, @JJG?

NO matter what we should be preparing for both up and down, if you don't want to end up being disappointed, even if your "never below $3,900 again" dart-throwing sorcery-wannabe pronouncement ends up coming true.   

Well, let's just hope that it does come true!

Hey @JJG! Just wondering, what are the odds of going below $3900 (again) now?

Hahahahaha!!!!

You seem to be in a kind of gloating posture....   

Hopefully, you are not trying to convert me into a kind of failed sorcerer because I never claim to know shit - except that I am frequently attacking and criticizing folks (moreso bears than bulls) who attempt to assign way too much certainty to any price events.... and it does not make them any more correct in their initial prediction, merely because they happened to guess correctly.

So, yeah, you are correct to point out that BTC prices have moved a considerable distance from $3,900 and presumptively pointed out that the odds have likely gotten greater, than previously, that we will not go below $3,900 ever, ever again. 

The odds of going below $3,900 is likely similar to whether the bottom is "in" or not.. maybe slightly higher odds for going below $3,900 than if the bottom is in at $3,122...

Another question is whether we are going to test our support at the $4,200 break out levels.  So if testing the bottom of $3,122 might be as high as 46%... then going below $3,900 might be in the 47% arena, and testing $4,200 would be in the 48-49% arena.    So currently breaking below $5k seems to be in the 50/50 area. 

Those are my tentative and conservative assignments of probability, and I deny any soothsayer qualities, while admit to feel it is a kind of duty of mine to bash those who proclaim soothsayer qualities, even though I am inclined to think that currently, the odds for UP seem to be greater than odds for down, and it would be quite a dramatic change of events (and maybe even categorized as a manipulated bull trap) to even get down to below $3,900 - which would be a greater than 51% price correction (from our current local top of $7585).

[JSRAW]

https://www.rockefellercenter.com/blog/2019/04/25/frieze-sculpture-rock/

Kenzawak this can help you out.

[JayJuanGee]

On the bright side of things we need to get a small number of 25-30ish percent corrections under our belt as we march to 100k, so if we get the first one here then that is some serious progress. Really looking forward to the crash from 25k to 17.5k

25-30% from 7400 is around 5000.  

There may be some good support at 6k, but if that fails then 5k is a good level to build from. Time is in some ways more important than price.  Support levels are created through trade and time spent at a particular level.

I am hopeful that 6k will hold, but 5k would not be so bad. Although I don't trade, I would think it prudent for those who took profits at ~7300 to buy at least half back when it gets to 6300.

Whoaza, Majormax.

Turning into a BIGGER bull than me.   hahahahaha

I am not turning into anything.  

When in doubt, deny.

Have always been exactly the same in my views. There is still a possibilty of a sub 2k low this year (see above), but I would put it at maybe 10% now.

Fair enough.  I would put sub $2k as a bit less than 10%, but who knows, we would have a lot of support levels to break before that outline would once again become feasible, including breaking our current $3,122 low for this corrective cycle.

I  believed the bull was over, and we had entered a bear market when I posted in Jan 2018 , and I now believe that the balance of probabilities is that bear market is ending.

I think that we concur that the bear market has likely ended.

As I said back in Feb 2018, a Bear low of 2k to 3k would seem about right.

I stand by my statement, too, and I had asserted that you had predicted too early.... even though you ended up being correct... so nothing wrong with either of that. 

We are at least seeming to agree, currently, that signs of UP are looking much better now than they had been, in any event.

[kenzawak]

https://www.rockefellercenter.com/blog/2019/04/25/frieze-sculpture-rock/

Kenzawak this can help you out.

I knew the name.  

I just thought it was cool that it's called "Behind the Walls".

[Dakustaking76]

Helo $7k

Welcome back

[Last of the V8s]

happy mothers day 

happy your mother if you want happy

[MrFreeRoMan]

happy mothers day 

happy your mother if you want happy

And if you do not have Mom? 
How can I be happy?

[HairyMaclairy]

Hahaha that’s about correct.

They make it really easy to use leverage on longing or shorting so that makes it appealing.  But it is a home of deep fuckery and the volume and order books are completely fake and their in-house trading team is front running trades.  Hard work to consistently make a profit there.  

... unless you stay under the radar with small trades.

And only use pre-set limit orders - never market orders or market stops...

[lightfoot]

On my way I made a few stops, the first one being on 47th st, between 6th and 5th avenue, where there are many gold exchanges.
About half of them accept Bitcoin.

No kidding. The shop up in Boston still sends me christmas cards for the watches I bought for $1000 (1 BTC) I think he sold at 16k.

But yeah, if you want to blow bitcoin a coin shop is one place to do it.

[gembitz]

t
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7k  weeeeeeee

[lightfoot]

Yeah, 7050. I'm so disappointed... :-)

[fillippone]

Nouriel Roubini.
Poor sad fuck. I literally hate him.

[asu]

​​Cryptos are in the middle of rally, excitement and wariness are in the air

As cryptocurrencies are in the middle of a rally these days, the market is waiting excitedly (or warily) on whether or not it will continue and how far it will go.



https://twitter.com/phillipnunnuk/status/1127311488870420482

https://telegra.ph/Cryptos-are-in-the-middle-of-rally-excitement-and-wariness-are-in-the-air-05-12

[LFC_Bitcoin]

t
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7k   weeeeeeee

Stop being such a fucking loser.







https://twitter.com/winklevoss/status/1127547987222245377?s=21

[Biodom]

No one wants to see the price gallop away and explode.

Well...

I think we might be able to scrounge up one or two dissenters.

seconded

[LFC_Bitcoin]

No one wants to see the price gallop away and explode.

Well...

I think we might be able to scrounge up one or two dissenters.

seconded

thirded

[Woodie]

watching the hashtag bitcoin on twitter, looks scary and hilarious from here... its a bitter sweet moment as everybody has become an instant expert on bitcoin..
We need more of these bull runs

credit to giphy

FACE DROP

[Majormax]

I stand by my statement, too, and I had asserted that you had predicted too early.... even though you ended up being correct... so nothing wrong with either of that. 

We are at least seeming to agree, currently, that signs of UP are looking much better now than they had been, in any event.

Spot on...

and thanks, I do actually value your type of critique !

[jojo69]

And if you do not have Mom?  
How can I be happy?

feelin' you man

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9EZlmqWmcqw#t=0m33s

[gembitz]

t
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m
b
e
r
r
r
7k   weeeeeeee

Stop being such a fucking loser.







https://twitter.com/winklevoss/status/1127547987222245377?s=21

how to earn bitcorns?