Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

While solidly behind bitcoin, I cannot be at the position of "only bitcoin forever".
Here is my purely behavioristic argument:

1. Wall Street (WS) largely "missed" bitcoin as more than 84% is already issued with very small (anecdotally) institutional ownership.

2. WS knows how to do "promotions".

3. Would it be easier for WS to promote a new token/coin/entity that is not almost fully subscribed yet vs the one that is already owned? I think that the answer is "probably, yes"

4. WS don't like chasing, but they do like sweet early deals.

Conclusion: BTC will be pushed first and will dramatically appreciate, but then the momentum might switch to "shitcoins".
Which ones's?
IMHO, the one's that are under-issued: XRP (since Ripple can make sweet deals at 40C now with appreciation later), watch out for Ripple issuing billions of coins from their 66 bil "stash", maybe ZEC as only 6mil out of 21 mil were mined so far. Don't want to mention newcomers, but watch out for large tranches of coins being allocated to WS hedge funds and institutions from some new and upcoming chains.

Personally, I don't think that ethereum would show large appreciation due to much competition in the area (POS) where it wants to compete.

One can, hopefully, design a strategy where potential profits in "shitcoins" would be transferred to bitcoin in due course.
I don't intend to sell any bitcoin (and certainly not for shitcoins), hopefully, until retirement or some unforeseen urgency, but some cash allocation along the lines that were mentioned above could be interesting. We shall see.

So, you are basically saying "buy ripple" because it's centralized bank money?

Not cool bro...

Pal, if you have CASH and use it, then you already have centralized bank money, lol
I am not giving an advice of what to buy, just looking at it from a cost-benefit angle.

Don't spend bitcoin, but if you have cash (aka centralized bank money as we established already, and after you did not spend your cash on btc in the next year or so), then it could be profitable.
Or not. Make your own decisions.

[kenzawak]

[mindrust]

Turkey has just passed the law which taxes people by 0.1% who trade foreign currencies.

Do you feel it WO? This is the sound of a country dying.

We might see  the super pump much quicker than we normally expect.

Meanwhile I still can't decide if I should go in or not with my remaning FIAT. Hard decision to make. I'll wait a bit more I guess.

Bitcoin! The government slayer. Here another country for you. Put it next to Venezuela.

[Gyrsur]

Go BTCitcoin Go!

[600watt]

By “value” I mean a use case, where the coins have been used for their use case.  

Other than stable coins, no alt coin has ever been used for its intended use case in any meaningful way.  

If they don’t have a viable use case, then they don’t have any value.

LoL. Do you actually see how hilarious that sounds coming from a bitcoin promoter ?

You think that bitcoin has any more of a "use case" or is being used for its "intended use case" ? We're 10 years in. What's the Whitepaper called ? "A Peer to Peer Electronic Cash System" ?

Look around you. What did you use the last time you went to the supermarket ? Bought something on Amazon ? Made a withdrawal from the bank ?

Get real. Altcoins are an $80 Billion market - that's quite a lot of "no value". The words pot and kettle spring to mind when people from either camp accuse the other of "not having any value". Most alts are doing what they were designed to do which is more than can be said for bitcoin. That doesn't mean it doesn't have a role, but everything in this entire sector is far more mutually dependent than many of their respective fanboys give credit for.

alts have a market cap because scammers lured them into their scamcoin. the invention is bitcoin and not blockchain. blockchain is nothing, just a way to structure a database, a buzzword. you yourself are the best example that the marketing brainwash that has been on full force for all those years is able to completely turn around perception of reality. you keep dismissing bitcoin and you do this 6 years in a row in a bitcoin forum. how twisted is this?  in your case the irony is that you were actually early in the game, but seemingly failed to understand bitcoin the slightest bit. it turned you into a sour altcoin fanboy.
altcoin pushers like you felt they were late to the bitcoin party and now desperately try to onboard an airplane made out of bamboo which will never fly. there is only bitcoin that works as designed. please give an example of any shitcoin that "does what it is designed for" .
oh and by the way: from airline tickets to bikes, from coffee-machines for our kitchen to pancakes on tropical islands i use bitcoin to pay for plenty of stuff. my sister ran out of money during a trip to london. she went to a btc atm and gave me a call, i was able to send her money instantly. bitcoin works beautifully.
take a deep breath and re-think your game plan, because you will get disappointed again and betrayed by shitcoins.

[makrospex]

McDonald’s locations in Austria will start doubling as mini-embassies for American tourists.

https://www.foxnews.com/travel/mcdonalds-austria-embassy

First I thought it's an april fool, but it's not  

First i thought Austria is an april fool, but i learned it's not 
I'm Austrian btw.

[machasm]

Go BTCitcoin Go!

The woman iS cupping the scrotum of the Bitcoin bull.
Try and see it any other way is futile.
I would sm Gyrsur but Im out.
+1WO merit

[Woodie]

That’s all very good and well.  But the only alt coins that have shown any value to date so far are stable coins.  And even they are quite dubious.  Tether and Dai have shown us that current stable coins are not stable.  They had one job....

Until we have at least one alt coin which has achieved something, I’m afraid your argument has no practical application, and is of theoretical interest only.

I personally cannot believe that tether still exists.

Reason behind it been still alive could be because of the marketing strategies been used by some exchanges to try and keep tether alive and relevant by paying with tether certain tasks on the exchange

~snip~

~snip~

~snip~

Nice strong comeback 600watt but toknormal does bring out some valid points too! (Both posts deserve some m*rit)

[Gyrsur]

fighting for $8000 on Stamp!

[HairyMaclairy]

Just saw my first mention of Bitcoin in the local press in the last six months.  The rally is just starting to filter into the public conscious 

[toknormal]

The institutions are finally figuring it out that it really is all about bitcoin and building trading, exchange, settlement and international transmittance layers on top of Bitcoin.

Eh...they're not actually. They're figuring out it's about diversification. Not least because of 3 things:

 1. no investor in possession of their senses doesn't diversify their portfolios within any asset class
 2. they understand that monetary assets are not a natural monopoly
 3. they understand that the most expensive asset in the class does not always have the most upside

The "God made bitcoin so we don't need anything else" delusional hopium in this thread is quaint, but you already lost that war 5 years ago and diversification is a one-way street. That is one genie that does not go back in the bottle.

[HairyMaclairy]

The institutions are finally figuring it out that it really is all about bitcoin and building trading, exchange, settlement and international transmittance layers on top of Bitcoin.

Eh...they're not actually. They're figuring out it's about diversification. Not least because of 3 things:

 1. no investor in possession of their senses doesn't diversify their portfolios within any asset class
 2. they understand that monetary assets are not a natural monopoly
 3. they understand that the most expensive asset in the class does not always have the most upside

The "God made bitcoin so we don't need anything else" delusional hopium in this thread is quaint, but you already lost that war 5 years ago and diversification is a one-way street. That is one genie that does not go back in the bottle.

Tokonormal.

How are competitors against Facebook  doing? Against Apple? Against Amazon? Against Netflix? Against Google?  Do you want to diversify into second tier versions of the FAANGs?

No you do not.  

They each completely dominate their market segment.  

As does Bitcoin.

Diversification is about picking the best of each market segment and buying a little of each.  It is not about chasing penny stocks.

[RivAngE]

Total market cap has reached September's highs, 25% more up and we'll reach August 2018 highs.

The BTC dominance has spiked a lot though, I don't think it can hold 60%.
I believe the market cap will keep rising but BTC will stabilise at this price for a few days or even weeks, while some people start joining the hype and buy BTC and others take some profit from BTC and are picking good alts which were massacred and are historically cheap.

[Majormax]

Diversification is about picking the best of each market segment and buying a little of each.  It is not about chasing penny stocks.

Portfolio performance is only gained with a range of stocks from each sector. The lower caps will always be more volatile and some will outperform the dominant stock.

We are only talking investment intent and actions here, not fundamental value. Therefore investment is about chasing penny stocks , and medium cap stocks, just as much as big-cap stocks.

The sort of investors we are talking about see cryptos as stocks, so plenty of money will flow into alts, and many will outperform BTC (considering price alone)

[PaivanTreidi]

The institutions are finally figuring it out that it really is all about bitcoin and building trading, exchange, settlement and international transmittance layers on top of Bitcoin.

Eh...they're not actually. They're figuring out it's about diversification. Not least because of 3 things:

 1. no investor in possession of their senses doesn't diversify their portfolios within any asset class
 2. they understand that monetary assets are not a natural monopoly
 3. they understand that the most expensive asset in the class does not always have the most upside

The "God made bitcoin so we don't need anything else" delusional hopium in this thread is quaint, but you already lost that war 5 years ago and diversification is a one-way street. That is one genie that does not go back in the bottle.

Tokonormal.

How are competitors against Facebook  doing? Against Apple? Against Amazon? Against Netflix? Against Google?  Do you want to diversify into second tier versions of the FAANGs?

No you do not.  

They each completely dominate their market segment.  

As does Bitcoin.

Diversification is about picking the best of each market segment and buying a little of each.  It is not about chasing penny stocks.

Are you saying nobody should have bought apple 20 years ago?

I think that is what we are talking about here. You are buying sh1tloads of compaq and IBM and blockbuster... At the time they were the giants.

I don't pretend to know the future but I do know a good saying about the person who laughs last...

[HairyMaclairy]

Diversification is about picking the best of each market segment and buying a little of each.  It is not about chasing penny stocks.

Portfolio performance is only gained with a range of stocks from each sector. The lower caps will always be more volatile and some will outperform the dominant stock.

We are only talking investment intent and actions here, not fundamental value. Therefore investment is about chasing penny stocks , and medium cap stocks, just as much as big-cap stocks.

The sort of investors we are talking about see cryptos as stocks, so plenty of money will flow into alts, and many will outperform BTC (considering price alone)

You are confusing two separate concepts.  

Diversification is a risk reduction technique.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diversification_(finance)

Portfolio optimization is about optimising a portfolio to achieve a specific objective (growth, income etc). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portfolio_optimization.

When you are saying ‘diversification’, you really mean portfolio optimization in a way that increases risk

If you want to optimize for high risk, high growth then chasing alts is the way to go. Don’t make the mistake of thinking this is diversification, because it’s not.

[El duderino_]

First wanna thank you guys for the "for most massively" support coming from you guys (for the source application)

Also wanna thank all the members who are mainly in other sections as speculation or our "WO-thread"

Then every member will know the application was my words that I wanted to say, but the PERFECT English wasn't my exact writing, so XhomerX thanks for helping me out putting my words in that awesome text, I owe you a very big THANK YOU and most of respect, helping a member out how you did.

Then jojo said one time he wasn't really sending support cause members he talk with and are became sources are a little bit difficult for him, as he doesn't want to make a joke that comes of like merit begging, I been with you guys a very long period of time and I will not change for one F*** while being in here and, I know you guys in here so just be the same to me and don't give a F***

That been said the sun is shining on the terrace where i'm drinking a fresh ginger thea and a sparkling water, the price is 7915$ and BTC looks as beautiful as always

1BTC still = 1BTC so nothing changed

[toknormal]

1. no investor in possession of their senses doesn't diversify their portfolios within any asset class
 2. they understand that monetary assets are not a natural monopoly

Tokonormal.

How are competitors against Facebook  doing? Against Apple? Against Amazon? Against Netflix? Against Google?  Do you want to diversify into second tier versions of the FAANGs?.....Diversification is about picking the best of each market segment and buying a little of each.  It is not about chasing penny stocks.

Facebook is dominant but not a monopoly and certainly not necessarily the future. Apple has only around 16% share of the smartphone market, down from 100% at the iPhone's launch. Netflix has less customers than Amazon Prime depending on how you view the statistics and its dominance is nowhere near to inhibiting new entrants. So those companies competitors are doing quite well actually.

Bitcoin dominance hit a minimum during the last massive price spike (see below), yet its marketcap/$USD price was at a maximum. That's no accident because as money is made in alts, people profit-take into bitcoin. It's the same structure for any monetary asset market and is in fact the very definition of a "reserve asset". There were of course other factors at play such as hedging the contentious hard forks that were going on, the blocksize war and general ideological differences in priority. But such needs to hedge will always exist - periodic storms in markets are a permanent feature of economics.

How does the market respond to such conflicts ? It caters for all through diversification - same as with any commercial sector. 20 years from now, the idea that there was only ever going to be 1 blockchain asset will seem comical, a bit like Thomas Watson's statement of "I think there is a market for maybe five computers".

Non-bitcoin digital asset market share moves in sawtooth waves just like bitcoin's own fiat market. It usually declines to just below the last peak marketshare during which time much of that capital flows into bitcoin and consolidates it. Then fuelling starts again and we move through a new cycle.

There are very few natural monopolies in the world and monetary assets - digital or otherwise - are definitely not one of them. That is something so-called bitcoin maximalists should be thankful for and not moaning about because without it you'd have stagnation and ultimately death of the entire sector, including bitcoin.

[Wekkel]

Go BTCitcoin Go!

She’s responsible for Bitcoin’s premature ejaculation  

The pump will be pumped until nobody’s left to go long. Then, the crush commences. A classic chart for goods without the proper ability to short.

[alevlaslo]