Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Toxic2040]

[1679574576]

1679574576

[1679574576]

1679574576

[1679574576]

1679574576

[JayJuanGee]

Actually, we would be quite lucky if BTC prices were to rise to $20k within the next 365 days....   More likely scenarios would be at least over 500 days.

I would love to be proven wrong, but it seems quite fantastical and pie in the sky for anyone to be seriously expecting the BTC price to go up to $20k in 45 days, absent some real fantastical and unexpected developments.

This is really obvious to anyone with a bit of logical thought.

Of course predictions cannot be certain, but the probabilities of these more extreme bullish pronouncements are very small.

I suppose it is one reason why so many ppl will always fail at trading : they get caught-up in manias and buy/sell at the wrong moment..... but it is comforting to have these flights of fancy !

I do understand both the pervasiveness of a kind of gambling mentality, and also people tend to both think and to talk in terms of absolutes. 

So I cannot really fault anyone for having those kinds of tendencies, but when we are speculating in threads like this one, we should be attempting to learn about both what is more probable and less probable, and also how to express  our ideas in terms of more realistic scenarios while also letting people know if you really believe some kinds of events are probable or you are living in a fantasy world - even if we do not want to come off as too nerdy, there are still ways to qualify BTC price speculations in order that you are not spouting out too many BTC price scenarios that are just "out there" in fantasy landia.

[Searing]

Actually, we would be quite lucky if BTC prices were to rise to $20k within the next 365 days....   More likely scenarios would be at least over 500 days.

I would love to be proven wrong, but it seems quite fantastical and pie in the sky for anyone to be seriously expecting the BTC price to go up to $20k in 45 days, absent some real fantastical and unexpected developments.

This is really obvious to anyone with a bit of logical thought.

Of course predictions cannot be certain, but the probabilities of these more extreme bullish pronouncements are very small.

I suppose it is one reason why so many ppl will always fail at trading : they get caught-up in manias and buy/sell at the wrong moment..... but it is comforting to have these flights of fancy !

I do understand both the pervasiveness of a kind of gambling mentality, and also people tend to both think and to talk in terms of absolutes.  

So I cannot really fault anyone for having those kinds of tendencies, but when we are speculating in threads like this one, we should be attempting to learn about both what is more probable and less probable, and also how to express  our ideas in terms of more realistic scenarios while also letting people know if you really believe some kinds of events are probable or you are living in a fantasy world - even if we do not want to come off as too nerdy, there are still ways to qualify BTC price speculations in order that you are not spouting out too many BTC price scenarios that are just "out there" in fantasy landia.

Depends. I'm in HODL mode for BTC and Crypto for the "Virtual Landscape" reasons. 21 million coins only and as of now I think it is 86% have been mined so far. Thus for

me it is long term HODL and the price gets to 20k or more when adoption and applications and such work their way along.

So does BTC have 'legs' as a structured speculation into someday an investment of note (when I pull the $$$ out, or some $$$) ... in the like we've seen in the last 10

years and hopefully into the next 10 years or not?

Price...hell it is the vision man..not the money! And as 'always' what I am doing above in HODL mode is 'Speculation' on my 'supposed vision'. It is in no way

an Investment, till such time I pull $$$ out.  Thi is still as close to being a Venture Capitalist Play as I'm ever likely to come accross. Best to not muddy

the waters on what color duck we are talking about here.

[Toxic2040]

#dyor
1h


D


W

#stronghands'19

[Stevenirving]

Been here long enough to know that corrections do happen and not always when you expect or can even see them coming. Sometimes right when you expect.

I have also been here long enough to know correction or not, the price will increase because at te end of the day bitcoin still is super undervalued and will be for a long time.

Im a perma-bull but something else great and can be super hard to learn is do not use bitcoin as a gambling device.
We need as many new people as often as we can get for sure but a lot of the horror stories should never happen.

Now like always is the time to buy but do your fuckin research people!
Look at the history of btc and how long down and up periods happened for before you start choosing the size of your investment.

[Torque]

Supreme King Uberbear Tyler Jenks issues first Bitcoin buy recommendation in 17 months:



https://twitter.com/LucidInvestment/status/1127250971053129728

Hyperwave might have some merit (although not here and now). But this guy is clearly retarded if he recommends a first buy in 17 months, hyperwave or not.

For the record, I think he meant first buy recommendation in the last 17 months.

But that guy is just another "Bitcoin Trading Expert" retard making predictions from his ass. Those idiots make more money gaining a following and scamming their followers with supposed "insider trading info" (usually for a fee) or racking up YT subscribers, than they do actually trading anything. He was calling for a fall to $1K many times.

[kingcolex]

Supreme King Uberbear Tyler Jenks issues first Bitcoin buy recommendation in 17 months:



https://twitter.com/LucidInvestment/status/1127250971053129728

Hyperwave might have some merit (although not here and now). But this guy is clearly retarded if he recommends a first buy in 17 months, hyperwave or not.

For the record, I think he meant first buy recommendation in the last 17 months.

But that guy is just another "Bitcoin Trading Expert" retard making predictions from his ass. Those idiots make more money gaining a following and scamming their followers with supposed "insider trading info" (usually for a fee) or racking up YT subscribers, than they do actually trading anything. He was calling for a fall to $1K many times.

Yeah this is douche bullshit, 20% so if you make gains he's wise, 20% if you lose he's wise because he said it wasnt in according to hyperwave and he "saved" you 80%

[Toxic2040]

Supreme King Uberbear Tyler Jenks issues first Bitcoin buy recommendation in 17 months:



https://twitter.com/LucidInvestment/status/1127250971053129728

Hyperwave might have some merit (although not here and now). But this guy is clearly retarded if he recommends a first buy in 17 months, hyperwave or not.

For the record, I think he meant first buy recommendation in the last 17 months.

But that guy is just another "Bitcoin Trading Expert" retard making predictions from his ass. Those idiots make more money gaining a following and scamming their followers with supposed "insider trading info" (usually for a fee) or racking up YT subscribers, than they do actually trading anything. He was calling for a fall to $1K many times.

re: hyperwaves

Deploying phase one.

That is all.

W

[realr0ach]

I believe manipulation is in full effect currently as these exchanges are trying to cover their butts to liquidate leveraged shorts that have been stacking. As a result this will extend the length of our current bear market, cause a much faster and harder drop and possibly take us to lows lower than previously expected by even the most bearish of bears. Sleep tight!

The sucker's rally scenario looks plausible simply due to the fact there's NOBODY in the general public looking to buy or can afford to buy imaginary timestamps for $7000 nowadays, so who the hell is the greater fool supposed to be? All the greater fools like JayJuanGee and Trollgoossens are already all-in.  Bitcoin is a dollar derivative and the entire world is collapsing in poverty except people like Jeff Bezos that own everything.  So unless Jeff Bezos decides to be the greater fool and baghold a bunch of imaginary, valueless shitcoins, or Bernanke helicopter money is immediately released tomorrow, then what the fuck?

[Toxic2040]

#dyor

#stronghands

[realr0ach]

There are only two big players in crypto: BitFinex/Tether and Binance.

From what I've seen, Binance is just as highly exposed to Tether as Bitfinex in numerical amounts.  In other words, the two largest Bitcoin exchanges are nothing more than MtGox-style cooking the books scams.

[jbreher]

So, yeah, what are the odds of $20k in 45 days?  

Right now? Not good.

18 months from now, a blowoff top that takes us from $50K to $150K in 45 days? Maybe 50-50.

DealWithItShades.png

[realr0ach]

Jesus Christ.  Toknormal is a Dashcoin scammer so of course he's going to create a blatant lie picture like this.  Digital shitcoins are currencies NOT commodities or money.  It even has the fucking word "cryptocurrency" in the name flat out telling you what it is.  On a long enough timeline, ALL currencies go to zero.  They are not stores of value; Bitcoin is not a resource.  

To be actual money you have to be a non-perishable, physical commodity - A RESOURCE.  Bitcoin is not non-perishable because it can die at literally any second by consensus failure, cryptography implosion, or a million other things, or easily be disposed of and replaced by an infinite amount of other worthless currencies.  This is why real money is required to be a physical commodity aka a resource.  If I hoard an actual resource like silver and corner the market, I have actual power and can ask for whatever the market can bear.  If you hoard all 21 million digital shitcoins, the rest of the world gets to completely ignore you!

[Millionero]

 If I hoard an actual resource like silver and corner the market, I have actual power and can ask for whatever the market can bear.

I think the Hunt brothers tried to corner the silver market.  Didn't work out too good for them.

[realr0ach]

If I hoard an actual resource like silver and corner the market, I have actual power and can ask for whatever the market can bear.

I think the Hunt brothers tried to corner the silver market.  Didn't work out too good for them.

If you actually know the story, they used the leveraged trading PAPER market, and then the Jew banks came in and changed the rules on things like margin requirements mid-flight, forcing them from being buyers/holders to sellers. They have no cornering of anything if their supply is encumbered in the equivalent of a variable rate mortgage that can blow up at any time.  Since everyone already knows the Hunt brother's lesson, it's likely the fraudulent exchange prices can literally go to zero the closer you get to moonshot revaluation of metals simply because nobody will be willing to take the buy side order of the non-performing, digital, paper trade at all and instead only buys physical instead.

[Lambie Slayer]

how to earn bitcorns?

I’ve heard selling yourself to other men for sexual services can be good pay.

Genitalbitz is a pro at that

[JayJuanGee]

....... there's NOBODY in the general public looking to buy or can afford to buy imaginary timestamps for $7000 nowadays, so who the hell is the greater fool supposed to be? All the greater fools like JayJuanGee and Trollgoossens are already all-in.  ............

Stahp trying to suggest that bitcoin is either a saturated or mature market.  Only about 1% of the whole world's population has any kind of stake in bitcoin, so there are plenty of folks who will be ready, willing and able to buy into bitcoin.  Also, many of the people who are 1% owners of bitcoin, are not necessarily "all in" bitcoin, including yours truly.   

I will admit that since late 2014, I had largely established my stake into bitcoin, but I do continue to dollar cost average into bitcoin, too, so accordingly, I will concede that the percentage of my allocation towards bitcoin is likely quite a bit larger than a lot of other people who are "into" bitcoin.   

No matter how you slice the situation, there are both a lot of people and a lot of money that can still enter into bitcoin, whether $7k or even at much higher prices, and therefore bitcoin, as a market, is not close to being either saturated or mature.

So, you better do some more homework to get some better facts and logic, roach, if you were actually wanting to attempt to contribute substantively meaningful questions about bitcoin adoption into this thread.

[realr0ach]

the pervasiveness of a kind of gambling mentality

JayJuanGee is sitting here looking like the second coming of Richard Simmons throwing dice in an alleyway.

[JayJuanGee]

So, yeah, what are the odds of $20k in 45 days?  

Right now? Not good.

18 months from now, a blowoff top that takes us from $50K to $150K in 45 days? Maybe 50-50.

DealWithItShades.png

Gosh.  You speak the truth there, and I am trying to figure out how I could assert that you could be wrong, but you are not.

Actually, only a small minority of the world's populations, perhaps less than 50% of the persons who already HODL bitcoin, recognize the upside potential of BTC in 18 months as being so strong... 50/50 are not weak odds, and they same to be about how I am assessing them to be too.... which are damned good, if you think about another 7x to 20x price appreciation from where we are at now.. and the odds are also not bad that such a blow off top could go above your indicated range. 

Could take a decent amount of time for others to realize those underlying probabilities, and the disparate investment opportunity that bitcoin provides, and likely many of the people who will be buying BTC to drive its prices from $50k-ish to $150k-ish do not now realize that they will be contributing to such a BTC price upsurge when such upsurge likely comes in about an 18 month time-frame, as you mentioned... not enough to save JMacAfee from eating his dick, but enough to make a large number of us longer term HODLers much more content, and might cause some of us to turn into BIGGER assholes.... a kind of increased "fuck you" status.

[JayJuanGee]

the pervasiveness of a kind of gambling mentality

JayJuanGee is sitting here looking like the second coming of Richard Simmons throwing dice in an alleyway.

Do you even know how to read?

In other words: