Even if you have a good plan and you largely follow your plan, there can still be a decent amount of trepidation during the process of the BTC price going UP like a bat out of hell...
-snip-
So build the shaving/skimming into the plan. That's all I'm saying.
This is Bitcoin. If your plan does not consider the possibility that the price overshoots by at least an order of magnitude more than you -- in your wildest dreams -- would dare to hope, then u r doing it rong.
Absolutely... while I would be highly surprised to see 6 digits anytime soon, my plan does allow for prices all the way up to 1MM. (( past 1MM.. its just a snarky notation that says "hookers and blow"
))
I have absolutely zero trepidation following my plan..
Let your logical self make the plan.. then when the price goes bonkers, your emotional self can trust that your logical self knew what he was doing and you can just sit back and enjoy the ride..
worked for me just fine in 2017.
Does your plan say that you are going to run out of BTC at $1million? Or will you have some left?
Sometimes I play around with my BTC price trajectories, and I recall that when the BTC price was in the triple digits, my trajectories only went a bit above $10k, but as the BTC price continued to go up, I expanded some of my trajectories to go to further prices, and some of that is merely cut and paste and others just update to go to BIGGER numbers once I change the base numbers in the fields (the where the BTC price is at numbers).
I have no fucking idea about whether BTC prices will even come close to the upper ends of my current price trajectories, but still in 2017, BTC prices easily surpassed my earlier versions of my BTC price trajectories. I just looked back and I see that my more bullish and forward looking trajectories only went to $5k when the BTC price was in three digits, and as the BTC price went up, my inputing of new numbers into the formula such as then current price and then current BTC holdings would cause the trajectory to adjust upwards, but still in 2017 the BTC price seemed to be wildly outpacing my BTC price trajectories and I had to adjust the shown BTC prices therein to keep up with BTC's price movement, and also consider whether my trajectories were matching up with how things were actually playing out in terms of my cash flow..
One of my questions to myself during that time was whether what I was doing was in the ballpark of my BTC price trajectories, even though in earlier times the trajectories had seemed pie in the sky, theoretical and even crazy to some people, my question to myself was to match whether they were being played out in the ballpark of my plan(s).
Anyhow, when BTC prices went to nearly $20k it became justifiable that my BTC price projections should go at least to $100k, and there was one point, in recent times that I thought that it would not hurt to copy and paste my formula to see how the BTC price trajectory plays out in a further out upwards BTC price projection, just in case.. let's see how $500k looks..
Sometimes the way that I talk about what I am doing is weird, too. For example, I will say that my formula just continues to incrementally sell about 1% of my BTC stash for every 10% price rise, but at a certain point, even though the practice shows that I should continue to sell BTC and accumulate fiat, the ratio of fiat value to BTC value does not really come down very much, even while it is continuing to build fiat and to diminish my BTC holdings, and it seems that I kind of get stuck into the 90% BTC to 10% fiat ratio territory....
but if I look back in the price trajectory at my BTC holdings today and compare them to my projected BTC holdings at various price points, I will see that if BTC prices were to make $500k, I would have sold a bit more than 30% of the quantity of my today's bitcoin holdings. Even though I did not cut and paste further data, I am sure that the numbers are not much different in the event that BTC prices were to get up to $1million.
The sell off ratio continues to maintain about a 90% BTC to 10% fiat ratio, which seems to cause an ongoing generation of a lot of fiat, and during that process my BTC widdles away so slowly that it is maintaining the decently large base of about 90% - even if I look at it more closely over the whole stretch, and I will see from the earlier times, I had sold about 30% of my stash from the earlier days (kind of assuming that the price goes straight up rather than buying some BTC back upon price drops), so at some points, it looks like these kinds of projected rises in BTC prices causes me (and likely many other BTC hodlers) to become quite rich.. and maybe even too rich overall.
Anyhow, BTC prices going up causes "good problems to have" for HODLers, and I am thinking that I will have to figure out ways to spend so much excess money (again a good problem to have, if BTC prices play out in that upwards direction)...
I think this thread has a saying "never go full fiat" .. I have taken that to heart.. Even at $1million, I'm not anywhere near full fiat. I just haven't yet put any thought into how I'll modify the formulas past that point.
From reading all of the above, it looks like we have _scarily_ similar thought processes on this concept as a whole.
I've found the same phenomenon with the BTC to Fiat percentages, although, mine seems to stabilize around 80% BTC to 20% fiat... "Fiat" in this case is shorthand for "diverse portfolio of stocks, bonds, property, cash equivilants, etc..."
Amazingly, the stabalization point for me seems also to be around $500k. I'd honestly be rather interested in finding out if any other WO posters are seeing the same with their long term plans...
And yes, I agree with your quandry of figuring out ways to spend excess money. I call this my "hookers and blow" stage.. not to be taken literally of course.
I figure if/when BTC ever hits about $250k, then I'll take the time to extend the planning out past a million. I just can't in good faith put serious thought to that at the moment, cuz I'm sure once the point arrives where I really don't have to worry about finances for the rest of my life, I won't be exactly the same person I am now...
Ugg. heavy thoughts..
Poll
