Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Fatman3001]

We sit in a privileged position because we live and breathe this every day.  But don’t make the mistake of extrapolating our knowledge and experience to the broader market.  

This is a good point. There are some skills you can transfer to other markets, but crypto is special.

[d_eddie]

Who sold at the bottom?

d_eddie because of "trading with a hedge"? 

Well, I've just sold something on the way up. Actually closed the short before loss (really tiny profit) and reopened it higher, a little larger. If she keeps going up, I will close it in loss when the long is near or above parity. As long as the long is larger I'm OK. If she gets back down, I'll cash out half of the short and play a little wait and see.

sounds like plan. i guess your system is much nondeterministic.

Uh ehm, the system saw the light after a... uh... how can I explain... a dream where I saw mammoths in the charts, stampeding on us poor hodlers. It was around the time when most of us agreed we were in bear territory, long before we started talking about capitulation, which became the rage only later. I opened a short, staking most of my play money (which current me, more seasoned and detached, wouldn't do). I cashed it out a little at a time, reconstructing it at every bounce. I doubled my play money (100% btc, no fiat) in a few months, like 4-6. So the system is solidly rooted in pure SOMA practice.

It does require work and planning ahead - planning for both directions! I try to make my plans on a cool head, with no positions open, and mostly stick to them, with occasional tweaks inspired by sentiment, whim, suggestions and of course fresh SOMA results.

[g-uid]

$5k soon!!!!

Reverse engineering 🤪

?

[d_eddie]

Who sold at the bottom?

EDIT: btw, I have a 0.2 BTC open short in my books but just in DEMO account. waiting for d_eddie to get the sign if I can close it.  

Heya brother-in-corn, this responsibility weighs upon my shoulders like a couple lambos! Close it as soon as it goes green. It's a short after all, better never let them go too far... or open a hedging long just in case  

it's hedged already with a long. the long is 260.2 points in green and the short is 488.7 points in red. I've borrowed the casino chips from my grandma and have to pay her back after Christmas. what should I do Buddy?

 

Kill your grandma!

(Wheew, that was easy.)

[Gyrsur]

Who sold at the bottom?

d_eddie because of "trading with a hedge"? 

Well, I've just sold something on the way up. Actually closed the short before loss (really tiny profit) and reopened it higher, a little larger. If she keeps going up, I will close it in loss when the long is near or above parity. As long as the long is larger I'm OK. If she gets back down, I'll cash out half of the short and play a little wait and see.

sounds like plan. i guess your system is much nondeterministic.

Uh ehm, the system saw the light after a... uh... how can I explain... a dream where I saw mammoths in the charts, stampeding on us poor hodlers. It was around the time when most of us agreed we were in bear territory, long before we started talking about capitulation, which became the rage only later. I opened a short, staking most of my play money (which current me, more seasoned and detached, wouldn't do). I cashed it out a little at a time, reconstructing it at every bounce. I doubled my play money (100% btc, no fiat) in a few months, like 4-6. So the system is solidly rooted in pure SOMA practice.

It does require work and planning ahead - planning for both directions! I try to make my plans on a cool head, with no positions open, and mostly stick to them, with occasional tweaks inspired by sentiment, whim, suggestions and of course fresh SOMA results.

great! it sounds like a not so easy system for real pros. but what the hell do you mean with SOMA. I just asked before but probably you didn't read it.

[vapourminer]

How are these fucktards at Bitfinex not in jail yet when the entire planet knows?

Just because your search engine automatically fills in the same keywords that you have been typing in for the last 3+ years does not mean that there is any kind of significance behind such autofill. 

Are you retarded, roach? (that's a rhetorical question, so you don't really need to answer it)

I bet it's his search history.

duckduckgo doesnt store your search history

[Gyrsur]

Who sold at the bottom?

EDIT: btw, I have a 0.2 BTC open short in my books but just in DEMO account. waiting for d_eddie to get the sign if I can close it.  

Heya brother-in-corn, this responsibility weighs upon my shoulders like a couple lambos! Close it as soon as it goes green. It's a short after all, better never let them go too far... or open a hedging long just in case  

it's hedged already with a long. the long is 260.2 points in green and the short is 488.7 points in red. I've borrowed the casino chips from my grandma and have to pay her back after Christmas. what should I do Buddy?

 

Kill your grandma!

(Wheew, that was easy.)

Umm noo! my last relative.

[Globb0]

Whelp, vodka # 6

Drinking on a monday morning?  

Technically yes but only the wee hours, and now just waking up from a Wodka slumber, Polish pronunciation
Checks price to see how much value that drunken but heartfelt trade has cost me.    looks at bottle of frosty Wodka again,     Just you and me baby!

 Oooh so frosty!  Nice.

This is the way I drink my daily vodka diet

[d_eddie]

Who sold at the bottom?

EDIT: btw, I have a 0.2 BTC open short in my books but just in DEMO account. waiting for d_eddie to get the sign if I can close it.  

Heya brother-in-corn, this responsibility weighs upon my shoulders like a couple lambos! Close it as soon as it goes green. It's a short after all, better never let them go too far... or open a hedging long just in case  

it's hedged already with a long. the long is 260.2 points in green and the short is 488.7 points in red. I've borrowed the casino chips from my grandma and have to pay her back after Christmas. what should I do Buddy?

 

If you don't like the idea of having to cut up your grandma and chuck her somewhere after the deed is done, you could try different approaches that only involve trading.

We need more info: the relative size of the 2 sides is the most important. Entry points not that much (their effects near/far from entry also depend on the detailed structure of the relevant derivative(s)).

If they were open at the same time, it would mean the short is ~1.9 times as large as the long. So each step up pays you 1 and costs you 1.9. A simple chicken-out strategy is: try to make the positions equal as much as you can, exploiting any "discount" (that is, dips if it's the short you're trying to reduce). Once they're equal, you are more or less insensitive to price variation because, as many have pointed out, it's equivalent to being flat (IF after that point, you close them together!). When you're there, you can assess your realized P&L and either close the game (no-brainer if you're green overall) or keep it going.

This is what I'd do, at least - but most importantly, I would try not to find myself with the short larger than the long in an uptrend! That's what planning ahead is about.

[Gyrsur]

so $8254.3 in my chart was a high. it goes down a bit now. I should have closed the long. but to late.  

EDIT: I'm not good in discretionary approaches really. I need simple rules which I can write into code and then let the machine trade and just observing and improving.

[JayJuanGee]

How are these fucktards at Bitfinex not in jail yet when the entire planet knows?

Just because your search engine automatically fills in the same keywords that you have been typing in for the last 3+ years does not mean that there is any kind of significance behind such autofill.  

Are you retarded, roach? (that's a rhetorical question, so you don't really need to answer it)

I bet it's his search history.

duckduckgo doesnt store your search history

Look at you.  Party poop.

Injecting reality into our trolling of the troll.   

[theymos]

I hadn't been following this closely for a while, but the class action complaint against Tether/BitFinex makes things look pretty bad for them... How important are they to the current ecosystem at this point? How much has the risk of Finex+USDT going the way of MtGox already been priced in?

The complaint doesn't completely convince me that Finex was printing USDT to manipulate prices, though it's certainly possible. I've been skeptical of USDT's backing for a long time. If they weren't manipulating, then the whole matter looks like the US government stole their money and then turned around and said, "Now you're operating at fractional reserve, so you're fraudulent!"

[d_eddie]

great! it sounds like a not so easy system for real pros. but what the hell do you mean with SOMA. I just asked before but probably you didn't read it.

Sorry Gyrsur, didn't notice. It's an inside game for WO-ers...

Straight Outta My Ass.

Meaning, I'm not that good at TA - mainly because I don't put a lot of faith in it.  I do have hunches, but they're wrong half of the time. So I plan for both scenarios. If I smell storms, I chicken out. When I think there's a decent chance to make a little profit one way or another, I put my big toe in the water. If it feels OK, I get knee deep. And so on. I never denied it does take a little work. What matters with me is that I can do it with a cool, detached head, without impulse "recovery" trades that would drag me in the abyss. Admittedly, cool comes easier once you manage to sit on a profit buffer AND you only stake all games with the same fixed amount, stashing away the excess into cold storage, with some sensible schedule you find works for you.

[Gyrsur]

I hadn't been following this closely for a while, but the class action complaint against Tether/BitFinex makes things look pretty bad for them... How important are they to the current ecosystem at this point? How much has the risk of Finex+USDT going the way of MtGox already been priced in?

The complaint doesn't completely convince me that Finex was printing USDT to manipulate prices, though it's certainly possible. I've been skeptical of USDT's backing for a long time. If they weren't manipulating, then the whole matter looks like the US government stole their money and then turned around and said, "Now you're operating at fractional reserve, so you're fraudulent!"

hmm. sounds creepy if true. so cheap coins for everyone 

[Gyrsur]

great! it sounds like a not so easy system for real pros. but what the hell do you mean with SOMA. I just asked before but probably you didn't read it.

Sorry Gyrsur, didn't notice. It's an inside game for WO-ers...

Straight Outta My Ass.

Meaning, I'm not that good at TA - mainly because I don't put a lot of faith in it.  I do have hunches, but they're wrong half of the time. So I plan for both scenarios. If I smell storms, I chicken out. When I think there's a decent chance to make a little profit one way or another, I put my big toe in the water. If it feels OK, I get knee deep. And so on. I never denied it does take a little work. What matters with me is that I can do it with a cool, detached head, without impulse "recovery" trades that would drag me in the abyss. Admittedly, cool comes easier once you manage to sit on a profit buffer AND you only stake all games with the same fixed amount, stashing away the excess into cold storage, with some sensible schedule you find works for you.

thanks Eddie! and I'm unfortunately out of sMerit. you deserves some!

[d_eddie]

so $8254.3 in my chart was a high. it goes down a bit now. I should have closed the long. but to late.  

EDIT: I'm not good in discretionary approaches really. I need simple rules which I can write into code and then let the machine trade and just observing and improving.

Decisions such as these can't be coded into a bot. Or if they can, I have no clue. Or maybe I have a clue but just can't spill the beans for obvious reasons  

What you can do is program a bot to set up complex conditional orders - which can be a real help as long as your connection to the exchange is steady, which in turn isn't a safe assumption with all the verlakkerij that's going on.

A few examples of complex conditional order:

- if the long suffers more than 10% from here, cash out 20% of the short

- if she goes down >100$, increase the long a bit and tighten its stop loss by 15$ while cashing out the btc equivalent of 200$ from the short (maybe to finance the increased long and keep your staked margin in check)

- if after going down >150$ (but <300$), she heads back up, cancel these 3 orders I put there in case of disaster

[LFC_Bitcoin]

thanks Eddie! and I'm unfortunately out of sMerit. you deserves some!

I got you!

[makrospex]

Pump up the jam, pump it up
While you feet are stompin'
...

Salt'n Pepa!!!
Thanks for refreshing these memories

Scraping around $8k again.

Salt n pepper no . It is Technotronic from Mic g's  home country

Of course!
The beat is
the beat is
the beat is technotronic.

Sorry my poor mind, thanks anyway  

[Dabs]

I wander out of this thread for a little bit, then I get crucified. Back to Observing the Wall. Much nicer in here.

[d_eddie]

thanks Eddie! and I'm unfortunately out of sMerit. you deserves some!

I got you!

Thanks to both

@Dabs, this feels like home doesn't it?