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Question: Oct. 5 Closing Price:
$0 - 5 (3.5%)
<$8,000 - 38 (27%)
$8,000-$8,500 - 16 (11.3%)
$8,500-$9,000 - 10 (7.1%)
$9,000-$9,500 - 13 (9.2%)
$9,500-$10,000 - 12 (8.5%)
$10,000-$10,500 - 10 (7.1%)
$10,500-$11,000 - 5 (3.5%)
$11,000-$11,500 - 2 (1.4%)
$11,500-$12,000 - 4 (2.8%)
>$12,000 - 17 (12.1%)
>$20,000 - 9 (6.4%)
Total Voters: 141

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21404100 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (108 posts by 21 users deleted.)
d_eddie
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October 07, 2019, 06:19:28 PM

*incoherent ranting*


Yes.  About a year and a half ago, pretty much Hairy admitted that he was relying on fractal comparisons, and surely I have been vocally critical of such fractal comparison reliances, even though they have largely been playing out - with, of course, some upwards deviation with our 3.5x outburst from April 1 to end of June, and currently what appears to be a return to the mean of the fractal... So whatever the fuck lack of comparison seems to still be working out in a very comparable way.


So, maybe there has never been such a system in the world, but who fucking cares?  It still has worked out quite well in bitcoin for a lot of us BTC HODLers and accumulators to be continuing to become richie and to increase our richness through the fact that BTC prices continue to go up in the longer term.. just like the silly fucking ass fractal comparisons seem to suggest.  Go figure?  

Now you roach, on the other hand, have had some mediocre gold price appreciation during this calendar year (which has gotten you all excited, and even a bit more cocky than usual), and maybe you should be taking advantage of that mediocre gold price appreciation and getting into a real future asset.. ie bitcoin?  dumb ass.

There is no TA comparison in legacy financial markets because there is no comparable asset in legacy financial markets.

There is no financial instrument with fixed supply to be paid out over a century where the rate of supply halves every four years as regular as the Olympics.  It is this regular drum beat that causes us to pound out the same patterns.  Yes the drum beat will get weaker over time as inflation falls away, but it is strong now and will remain strong through this halvening and likely the next.

I have spoken to investment bankers at Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan who do TA on Bitcoin and in their arrogance they have never heard of the halvening.   So they can’t plan for it and they can’t front run it.   Even among retail investors, most of whom are focused on chasing shitcoins, they have no understanding of how the entire market is run by the drum beat of Daddy Bitcoin.

We sit in a privileged position because we live and breathe this every day.  But don’t make the mistake of extrapolating our knowledge and experience to the broader market.  

It's probably the last sMerit I can award to non-legendary Hairy. It's good to maintain some perspective while we live in this highly informed echo box.
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October 07, 2019, 06:19:57 PM

$8300

Kinda surprised about the strength down here. Still too little to save us from a drop to $6500, but interesting.
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October 07, 2019, 06:21:10 PM

$5k soon!!!!

Reverse engineering 🤪
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October 07, 2019, 06:23:35 PM

$8300

Kinda surprised about the strength down here. Still too little to save us from a drop to $6500, but interesting.

Fatty showing his true colors.. even if he proclaims to no longer be a BIG blocker.   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes
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October 07, 2019, 06:24:28 PM

Who sold at the bottom?

EDIT: btw, I have a 0.2 BTC open short in my books but just in DEMO account. waiting for d_eddie to get the sign if I can close it.  Roll Eyes

Heya brother-in-corn, this responsibility weighs upon my shoulders like a couple lambos! Close it as soon as it goes green. It's a short after all, better never let them go too far... or open a hedging long just in case  Grin

it's hedged already with a long. the long is 260.2 points in green and the short is 488.7 points in red. I've borrowed the casino chips from my grandma and have to pay her back after Christmas. what should I do Buddy?

 Grin
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October 07, 2019, 06:24:37 PM


We sit in a privileged position because we live and breathe this every day.  But don’t make the mistake of extrapolating our knowledge and experience to the broader market.  


This is a good point. There are some skills you can transfer to other markets, but crypto is special.
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October 07, 2019, 06:30:50 PM

Who sold at the bottom?

d_eddie because of "trading with a hedge"?  Wink

Well, I've just sold something on the way up. Actually closed the short before loss (really tiny profit) and reopened it higher, a little larger. If she keeps going up, I will close it in loss when the long is near or above parity. As long as the long is larger I'm OK. If she gets back down, I'll cash out half of the short and play a little wait and see.

sounds like plan. i guess your system is much nondeterministic.

Uh ehm, the system saw the light after a... uh... how can I explain... a dream where I saw mammoths in the charts, stampeding on us poor hodlers. It was around the time when most of us agreed we were in bear territory, long before we started talking about capitulation, which became the rage only later. I opened a short, staking most of my play money (which current me, more seasoned and detached, wouldn't do). I cashed it out a little at a time, reconstructing it at every bounce. I doubled my play money (100% btc, no fiat) in a few months, like 4-6. So the system is solidly rooted in pure SOMA practice.

It does require work and planning ahead - planning for both directions! I try to make my plans on a cool head, with no positions open, and mostly stick to them, with occasional tweaks inspired by sentiment, whim, suggestions and of course fresh SOMA results.
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October 07, 2019, 06:32:03 PM

$5k soon!!!!

Reverse engineering 🤪


?
d_eddie
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October 07, 2019, 06:33:05 PM

Who sold at the bottom?

EDIT: btw, I have a 0.2 BTC open short in my books but just in DEMO account. waiting for d_eddie to get the sign if I can close it.  Roll Eyes

Heya brother-in-corn, this responsibility weighs upon my shoulders like a couple lambos! Close it as soon as it goes green. It's a short after all, better never let them go too far... or open a hedging long just in case  Grin

it's hedged already with a long. the long is 260.2 points in green and the short is 488.7 points in red. I've borrowed the casino chips from my grandma and have to pay her back after Christmas. what should I do Buddy?

 Grin

Kill your grandma!

(Wheew, that was easy.)
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October 07, 2019, 06:34:50 PM

Who sold at the bottom?

d_eddie because of "trading with a hedge"?  Wink

Well, I've just sold something on the way up. Actually closed the short before loss (really tiny profit) and reopened it higher, a little larger. If she keeps going up, I will close it in loss when the long is near or above parity. As long as the long is larger I'm OK. If she gets back down, I'll cash out half of the short and play a little wait and see.

sounds like plan. i guess your system is much nondeterministic.

Uh ehm, the system saw the light after a... uh... how can I explain... a dream where I saw mammoths in the charts, stampeding on us poor hodlers. It was around the time when most of us agreed we were in bear territory, long before we started talking about capitulation, which became the rage only later. I opened a short, staking most of my play money (which current me, more seasoned and detached, wouldn't do). I cashed it out a little at a time, reconstructing it at every bounce. I doubled my play money (100% btc, no fiat) in a few months, like 4-6. So the system is solidly rooted in pure SOMA practice.

It does require work and planning ahead - planning for both directions! I try to make my plans on a cool head, with no positions open, and mostly stick to them, with occasional tweaks inspired by sentiment, whim, suggestions and of course fresh SOMA results.

great! it sounds like a not so easy system for real pros. but what the hell do you mean with SOMA. I just asked before but probably you didn't read it.
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October 07, 2019, 06:35:48 PM

How are these fucktards at Bitfinex not in jail yet when the entire planet knows?



Just because your search engine automatically fills in the same keywords that you have been typing in for the last 3+ years does not mean that there is any kind of significance behind such autofill. 

Are you retarded, roach? (that's a rhetorical question, so you don't really need to answer it)

I bet it's his search history.

duckduckgo doesnt store your search history
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October 07, 2019, 06:37:25 PM

Who sold at the bottom?

EDIT: btw, I have a 0.2 BTC open short in my books but just in DEMO account. waiting for d_eddie to get the sign if I can close it.  Roll Eyes

Heya brother-in-corn, this responsibility weighs upon my shoulders like a couple lambos! Close it as soon as it goes green. It's a short after all, better never let them go too far... or open a hedging long just in case  Grin

it's hedged already with a long. the long is 260.2 points in green and the short is 488.7 points in red. I've borrowed the casino chips from my grandma and have to pay her back after Christmas. what should I do Buddy?

 Grin

Kill your grandma!

(Wheew, that was easy.)

Umm noo! my last relative.
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October 07, 2019, 06:39:51 PM

Whelp, vodka # 6

Drinking on a monday morning?  Shocked Huh
Technically yes but only the wee hours, and now just waking up from a Wodka slumber, Polish pronunciation Wink
Checks price to see how much value that drunken but heartfelt trade has cost me.  Shocked  looks at bottle of frosty Wodka again,  Grin Grin Grin   Just you and me baby!




 Oooh so frosty!  Nice.


This is the way I drink my daily vodka diet
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October 07, 2019, 06:47:56 PM
Last edit: October 07, 2019, 07:45:00 PM by d_eddie

Who sold at the bottom?

EDIT: btw, I have a 0.2 BTC open short in my books but just in DEMO account. waiting for d_eddie to get the sign if I can close it.  Roll Eyes

Heya brother-in-corn, this responsibility weighs upon my shoulders like a couple lambos! Close it as soon as it goes green. It's a short after all, better never let them go too far... or open a hedging long just in case  Grin

it's hedged already with a long. the long is 260.2 points in green and the short is 488.7 points in red. I've borrowed the casino chips from my grandma and have to pay her back after Christmas. what should I do Buddy?

 Grin

If you don't like the idea of having to cut up your grandma and chuck her somewhere after the deed is done, you could try different approaches that only involve trading.

We need more info: the relative size of the 2 sides is the most important. Entry points not that much (their effects near/far from entry also depend on the detailed structure of the relevant derivative(s)).

If they were open at the same time, it would mean the short is ~1.9 times as large as the long. So each step up pays you 1 and costs you 1.9. A simple chicken-out strategy is: try to make the positions equal as much as you can, exploiting any "discount" (that is, dips if it's the short you're trying to reduce). Once they're equal, you are more or less insensitive to price variation because, as many have pointed out, it's equivalent to being flat (IF after that point, you close them together!). When you're there, you can assess your realized P&L and either close the game (no-brainer if you're green overall) or keep it going.

This is what I'd do, at least - but most importantly, I would try not to find myself with the short larger than the long in an uptrend! That's what planning ahead is about.
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October 07, 2019, 06:48:26 PM

so $8254.3 in my chart was a high. it goes down a bit now. I should have closed the long. but to late.  Roll Eyes

EDIT: I'm not good in discretionary approaches really. I need simple rules which I can write into code and then let the machine trade and just observing and improving.
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October 07, 2019, 06:48:55 PM
Merited by makrospex (1)

How are these fucktards at Bitfinex not in jail yet when the entire planet knows?



Just because your search engine automatically fills in the same keywords that you have been typing in for the last 3+ years does not mean that there is any kind of significance behind such autofill.  

Are you retarded, roach? (that's a rhetorical question, so you don't really need to answer it)

I bet it's his search history.

duckduckgo doesnt store your search history

Look at you.  Party poop.

Injecting reality into our trolling of the troll.   Sad
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October 07, 2019, 06:54:24 PM
Merited by mindrust (5), Dabs (1)

I hadn't been following this closely for a while, but the class action complaint against Tether/BitFinex makes things look pretty bad for them... How important are they to the current ecosystem at this point? How much has the risk of Finex+USDT going the way of MtGox already been priced in?

The complaint doesn't completely convince me that Finex was printing USDT to manipulate prices, though it's certainly possible. I've been skeptical of USDT's backing for a long time. If they weren't manipulating, then the whole matter looks like the US government stole their money and then turned around and said, "Now you're operating at fractional reserve, so you're fraudulent!"
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October 07, 2019, 06:54:58 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (2)

great! it sounds like a not so easy system for real pros. but what the hell do you mean with SOMA. I just asked before but probably you didn't read it.

Sorry Gyrsur, didn't notice. It's an inside game for WO-ers...

Straight Outta My Ass.

Meaning, I'm not that good at TA - mainly because I don't put a lot of faith in it.  I do have hunches, but they're wrong half of the time. So I plan for both scenarios. If I smell storms, I chicken out. When I think there's a decent chance to make a little profit one way or another, I put my big toe in the water. If it feels OK, I get knee deep. And so on. I never denied it does take a little work. What matters with me is that I can do it with a cool, detached head, without impulse "recovery" trades that would drag me in the abyss. Admittedly, cool comes easier once you manage to sit on a profit buffer AND you only stake all games with the same fixed amount, stashing away the excess into cold storage, with some sensible schedule you find works for you.
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October 07, 2019, 07:01:27 PM

I hadn't been following this closely for a while, but the class action complaint against Tether/BitFinex makes things look pretty bad for them... How important are they to the current ecosystem at this point? How much has the risk of Finex+USDT going the way of MtGox already been priced in?

The complaint doesn't completely convince me that Finex was printing USDT to manipulate prices, though it's certainly possible. I've been skeptical of USDT's backing for a long time. If they weren't manipulating, then the whole matter looks like the US government stole their money and then turned around and said, "Now you're operating at fractional reserve, so you're fraudulent!"

hmm. sounds creepy if true. so cheap coins for everyone  Huh
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October 07, 2019, 07:03:22 PM

great! it sounds like a not so easy system for real pros. but what the hell do you mean with SOMA. I just asked before but probably you didn't read it.

Sorry Gyrsur, didn't notice. It's an inside game for WO-ers...

Straight Outta My Ass.

Meaning, I'm not that good at TA - mainly because I don't put a lot of faith in it.  I do have hunches, but they're wrong half of the time. So I plan for both scenarios. If I smell storms, I chicken out. When I think there's a decent chance to make a little profit one way or another, I put my big toe in the water. If it feels OK, I get knee deep. And so on. I never denied it does take a little work. What matters with me is that I can do it with a cool, detached head, without impulse "recovery" trades that would drag me in the abyss. Admittedly, cool comes easier once you manage to sit on a profit buffer AND you only stake all games with the same fixed amount, stashing away the excess into cold storage, with some sensible schedule you find works for you.

thanks Eddie! and I'm unfortunately out of sMerit. you deserves some!
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