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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26367447 times)
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LFC_Bitcoin
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March 04, 2020, 12:38:07 PM


Source: Some random Facebook account - Leonor Dias

This guy Leonor must be one of those idiots who believes it is just the flu. I can tell you already this virus will not kill us all.




I survived a drunk driver hitting my car at 60 mph, over 100 stitches in my head, broken pelvis, broken ankle, broken ribs, in ICU for a week. No way is this taking me down  Cool
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March 04, 2020, 12:46:26 PM

Basic issue with people who don't take it serious is that people just don't understand exponential growth. Which is really weird to see among a collection of bitcoiners.
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March 04, 2020, 12:48:37 PM


~snip~ (Lots of things that are going to kill us)


No worries mate.
Just pray to your preferred flavor magic sky fairy and bingo!
You have everlasting life ( and maybe even 7 virgins on the side or some such thing....)
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March 04, 2020, 01:11:38 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1)

Basic issue with people who don't take it serious is that people just don't understand exponential growth. Which is really weird to see among a collection of bitcoiners.

In all due seriousness:

Daily Survival Checklist - by Cryptotourist:
 
- Did you have any kind of sex today?
- Did you smile today?
- Did you accumulate any corn today?
- Are your females in shape as always?
- Is it going to be sunny tomorrow?
- Did you make any progress - over anything - what_so_ever?
- Do you have booze n food?
- Why didn't you have sex?

Shoot. Still in one piece. That was close today.
Lucky to be alive. Grin

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100 WO Hatters
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March 04, 2020, 01:28:51 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (1)

We might even reach $3800 with such craziness. Hard to believe, I know.
I might get a nose bleed travelling to such heights.

How time flies!
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March 04, 2020, 01:38:04 PM

The problem is that they are the majority. It's the pareto principle, as the number of people increase the number of people with positive value increases linearly, and the number of people with negative value increases exponentially.
They don't have "negative" value under the pareto distribution. They just produce much less. All it says is that 20% of any collection of inputs is responsible for 80% of all the outputs of the system.

Basically, 20% of the people bother picking up a skill or hobby and then create 80% of the resulting products of that endeavour in the world.


Nothing about pareto states that there's any damage or 'negative value' by itself.
However, you could argue that out of that group of people that is dead set on destroying things, 20% would be responsible for 80% of the total destruction. That's about as far as it goes though.
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March 04, 2020, 01:47:39 PM

The problem is that they are the majority. It's the pareto principle, as the number of people increase the number of people with positive value increases linearly, and the number of people with negative value increases exponentially.
They don't have "negative" value under the pareto distribution. They just produce much less. All it says is that 20% of any collection of inputs is responsible for 80% of all the outputs of the system.

Basically, 20% of the people bother picking up a skill or hobby and then create 80% of the resulting products of that endeavour in the world.


Nothing about pareto states that there's any damage or 'negative value' by itself.
However, you could argue that out of that group of people that is dead set on destroying things, 20% would be responsible for 80% of the total destruction. That's about as far as it goes though.
You don't think there is such a thing as people with a negative value? Murderers? Stalin, Hitler, the common banker? Really? ALL humans have a positive value? Even the homeless who deliberately rape and spread aids and smear shit on your car?
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March 04, 2020, 01:49:20 PM

I think it's time we called in the real Guardians. These fakes are toast.



They really do think they are superheros. Always talking about ammunition, toolboxes, tool belts and tool kits.  Roll Eyes I suppose to elites looking for easy money they are heroes.
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March 04, 2020, 01:51:27 PM
Merited by psycodad (1)

It's not a pendulum, it's a cycle. It can't restart before it has either completed or a specific type of event happens that resets it. The "pendulum" does not simply stop at the halfway point and then go in the other direction.
It kind of does. It swings one way until it can't anymore, gradually slows down to zero, reverses its direction and repeats the same action but mirrored, then it resets and begins a new cycle.

Quote
The ultimate driver behind any culture is the people who live in it. People today are objectively worse than in most of history. It's not just the boomers, we are all affected by whatever environment we happen to live in. Things are going to get worse as a result. How much worse, who knows, but worse.
Well, things have objectively been getting better. The idiots just have a louder voice these days.

There isn't a single significant problem around today that I'm aware of which couldn't be solved relatively quickly.

I also see no evidence of things getting worse as a whole, although idiots have swarmed academia thanks to government. At the end of the day that just means cheaper labour for real scientists though.
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March 04, 2020, 01:56:41 PM

The problem is that they are the majority. It's the pareto principle, as the number of people increase the number of people with positive value increases linearly, and the number of people with negative value increases exponentially.
They don't have "negative" value under the pareto distribution. They just produce much less. All it says is that 20% of any collection of inputs is responsible for 80% of all the outputs of the system.

Basically, 20% of the people bother picking up a skill or hobby and then create 80% of the resulting products of that endeavour in the world.


Nothing about pareto states that there's any damage or 'negative value' by itself.
However, you could argue that out of that group of people that is dead set on destroying things, 20% would be responsible for 80% of the total destruction. That's about as far as it goes though.
You don't think there is such a thing as people with a negative value? Murderers? Stalin, Hitler, the common banker? Really? ALL humans have a positive value? Even the homeless who deliberately rape and spread aids and smear shit on your car?
There's a good number of people that should be lined up and seen off.

I am saying that according to pareto "20% of all people that do negative things do 80% of the negative things". That doesn't mean that 20% of the population is bad/evil/negative, but that out of the total amount of 'negative' people within a population 20% of them do 80% of the negative things that define their "negativity".

And most people are too busy living their lives and being irrelevant to the overall course of humanity to do evil, hence fueling progress indirectly by being employed or by consuming.
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March 04, 2020, 02:00:56 PM

It's not a pendulum, it's a cycle. It can't restart before it has either completed or a specific type of event happens that resets it. The "pendulum" does not simply stop at the halfway point and then go in the other direction.
It kind of does. It swings one way until it can't anymore, gradually slows down to zero, reverses its direction and repeats the same action but mirrored, then it resets and begins a new cycle.

Quote
The ultimate driver behind any culture is the people who live in it. People today are objectively worse than in most of history. It's not just the boomers, we are all affected by whatever environment we happen to live in. Things are going to get worse as a result. How much worse, who knows, but worse.
Well, things have objectively been getting better. The idiots just have a louder voice these days.
Things have been getting better because of the efforts of our ancestors. Then their kids, the boomers took over. And now boomers are all we have left at the top. That's why things are failing.

Big systems can take a long time to fail. But when they do it's a process that can't be stopped. And then people look back and wonder, what went wrong? Why didn't anyone see it coming? Why did nobody do anything? Well it's because the parents of the boomers are dead that nobody did anything. Nobody could.

There isn't a single significant problem around today that I'm aware of which couldn't be solved relatively quickly.
Solve for communism.

In my country we pay at least 80% in taxes. In england the police are telling people to check their thinking for posts on facebook and twitter. We are almost there. How do you stop this?

I also see no evidence of things getting worse as a whole, although idiots have swarmed academia thanks to government. At the end of the day that just means cheaper labour for real scientists though.
Academia is where the next generation of politicians and leaders of whatever stripes are made. This is not a minor thing, but in fact one of the biggest problems we have in the west today.
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March 04, 2020, 02:04:32 PM

The problem is that they are the majority. It's the pareto principle, as the number of people increase the number of people with positive value increases linearly, and the number of people with negative value increases exponentially.
They don't have "negative" value under the pareto distribution. They just produce much less. All it says is that 20% of any collection of inputs is responsible for 80% of all the outputs of the system.

Basically, 20% of the people bother picking up a skill or hobby and then create 80% of the resulting products of that endeavour in the world.


Nothing about pareto states that there's any damage or 'negative value' by itself.
However, you could argue that out of that group of people that is dead set on destroying things, 20% would be responsible for 80% of the total destruction. That's about as far as it goes though.
You don't think there is such a thing as people with a negative value? Murderers? Stalin, Hitler, the common banker? Really? ALL humans have a positive value? Even the homeless who deliberately rape and spread aids and smear shit on your car?
There's a good number of people that should be lined up and seen off.

I am saying that according to pareto "20% of all people that do negative things do 80% of the negative things". That doesn't mean that 20% of the population is bad/evil/negative, but that out of the total amount of 'negative' people within a population 20% of them do 80% of the negative things that define their "negativity".

And most people are too busy living their lives and being irrelevant to the overall course of humanity to do evil, hence fueling progress indirectly by being employed or by consuming.
The pareto principle is about distribution. In the case of contribution, human value specifically in this case, that value can be negative.
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March 04, 2020, 02:06:10 PM


they do rather have that post-boss-fight glow about them
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March 04, 2020, 02:06:26 PM
Merited by Last of the V8s (1)

Great article, it is surprising how the stock-to-flow model has so many adaptations, in my time at the U, game theory was a very complicated matter, but with excellent applications.

The Hodler’s Game — Game Theory applied to Bitcoin’s pricing

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Hodlers tend to accumulate during low volatility periods and to sell during incurring price spikes, while Opportunists take the other side of the trade and kick-start the volatility when they enter the market



Source: https://medium.com/coinmonks/the-hodlers-game-a-summary-83ea4bac22d9
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March 04, 2020, 02:21:22 PM

Basic issue with people who don't take it serious is that people just don't understand exponential growth. Which is really weird to see among a collection of bitcoiners.

Just to add to Ibian's comment, I did a quick MATLAB graph, just for the lulz.

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March 04, 2020, 02:24:58 PM

but man can we close some barn doors after the cows are gone
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March 04, 2020, 02:27:01 PM
Merited by psycodad (1)

2% mortality rate?
Closer to 10%. This is one of the worse examples of misinformation, something really needs to be done about it.

On the cruise ship, I think about 700 got the virus (20%) and 6 of them died.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

706 infected, 600 active cases, 100 recovered, 36 in serious condition, 6 dead. So far.

The way the death rate is being calculated, you could just as easily look at the recovered compared to infected. Only 14% recover from the virus! So a 86% mortality rate!

Ive been trying to get some clarity on the mortality rate and bc you really cant trust even the rich first world democracies and the strong incentive to under test for infections, I cant find any more reliable sample than the Diamond Princess.

Its a perfect lab experiment. A large sample of people, plenty of time for a random and large group to get infected, and we know that all but a dozen or so were tested, whether they had symptoms or not.

There are no other examples of entire towns or villages where everyone was tested to my knowledge. This means that any sample of positive testing patients cant give you a good mortality rate because you have no way of knowing how many others in the vicinity had the virus but showed little to no symptoms.

I realize that its possible a few more could die from Diamond Princess, but imo highly unlikely, they have had plenty of time for the disease to play out according to established time lines. It takes a good while to declare patients recovered because they need as many as three or more tests that come back negative and the virus can leave particles in the body that trigger the test long after symptoms are gone.

So you have 6 out of 700 dead, or a .85% mortality. Thats pretty bad, but way better than many estimates. But....... we are forgetting why that .85% death rate is way to high. Its a cruise ship, this population sample is OLD! The average cruise ship passenger is almost two decades older than the average citizen according to a few quick google searches. Its not scientific, but anyone who has been on a cruise knows that its mostly older people.

So now things start looking a lot better. A ship full of old people passed this thing around and .85% died. Yes about 80 infections were crew members who were likely to be much younger on average. Guess what, not one crew member died.

All this leads me to strongly believe that there is no way in hell the true mortality rate is not somewhere a good bit below .85%. Some quick napkin and SOMA calculations tells me this sample of people with their advanced age, factoring in for the normal age of the 80 crew members, and using the death charts by age data available, extrapolates out to about a .40% mortality rate.

About 4 times deadlier than the flu and enough to overwhelm Wuhan's hospitals once about half a million people got infected in a short span.

A large chunk of the people that will die from this would have probably died in the next 6 months to a year anyway. Its just a strain on hospitals bc usually these people kick the bucket in a drawn out period, not all at once.

Flu season already puts a big strain on ICU beds each year, its not cost effective to have a large oversupply of them.

This strain will be much less in countries where healthcare is more of a free market.

Its easy to see why the commies in China got overrun, they have free healthcare for all which means a shitty healthcare system.

This virus is gonna hurt communist and socialist countries more than free market oriented countries. Thats bullish for Bitcoin.

TLDR: Its just the Flu x 4 bro, and its hella bullish bc money printers are in hysteria right now.
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March 04, 2020, 02:31:04 PM

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Things have been getting better because of the efforts of our ancestors. Then their kids, the boomers took over. And now boomers are all we have left at the top. That's why things are failing.
The generational thing was more apt for slow moving civilizations. This paradigm is due to end very soon if it hasn't already, simply because everything changes so damn quickly and communication as well as networking is completely different from what it used to be.
You no longer grow up and die with the people and in the environment that you'll spend your life with and in. So you have little chance to be fully oblivious if you want to do something more productive than being a sheep.

At the end of the day we'll end up with sets of people that exclusively consume and "just live their lives", classes of people that live to work and solve problems, as well as people who do a bit of both.

And that's good enough. People who "just live their lives" provide data and cheap labour, while also increasing the total acquirable wealth of the doers. No need for any more than that precisely because of exponential progress.
Who cares if they need more space and more resources when we become much more efficient at creation and allocation.


Quote
Big systems can take a long time to fail. But when they do it's a process that can't be stopped. And then people look back and wonder, what went wrong? Why didn't anyone see it coming? Why did nobody do anything? Well it's because the parents of the boomers are dead that nobody did anything. Nobody could.
We have enough countries to not have to care about such issue. Even if Sanders became president and had the ability to pass anything through congress, neither of which will happen, the productive class will simply leave and set up shop elsewhere.
The consumer class will eventually follow, because it can't get anything done by itself and won't be able to resist the desire of living where the magic happens. Needless to say, some of the people who foolishly voted to break things, without even understanding what they are doing, would suffer greatly from this in the short-term.
But in the long-term all you have to do is let this nonsense play out a few more times and watch even the dumbest of idiots on Tiktok spread anti-communism awareness memes.

Yeah, it looks bad if you're zoomed in on the now. But in reality it's just a learning process.
Think of humans more as a collective organism, you know you could do better but you're too lazy, arrogant, naive and stupid to actually do it until you fall flat on your ass a few times.

For the individual all that matters is being ahead of the game and not staying in any country that is about to go down the shitter. Wealthy people have been doing this forever, and more and more normal folks learn this over time.

Quote
Solve for communism.

In my country we pay at least 80% in taxes. In england the police are telling people to check their thinking for posts on facebook and twitter. We are almost there. How do you stop this?
We're not almost there, some countries look like they're getting there but there's a lot of lash back and it's not the entire world.
Provided you care enough to sacrifice your lifetime there are two ways. Change from within, change from without.
If you have a lot of leverage, e.g. because you're an Elon Musk, you can go into politics and media and start changing things because everybody respects you and knows that you know what the fuck you're talking about and doing.

If you're not, go to whichever country is most conducive to amassing wealth and solving significant problems. Go do it.
When that country is about to fail (e.g. if you're in the US and Sanders gets elected) you leave for the next best thing and keep going there.

Once you attain above leverage you may consider influencing culture and politics.

Quote
Academia is where the next generation of politicians and leaders of whatever stripes are made. This is not a minor thing, but in fact one of the biggest problems we have in the west today.
It is indeed not a minor thing. But I'm not very concerned because people can migrate.
Take that away and you've got a real problem. As long as countries can attract the top of the crop by changing policy there will always be a gradient of preferable vs undesirable policies, and that ultimately and over time is what will take us to proper capitalism.


I'd guess that the real issue is creating and maintaining a culture in which:
1.) Everybody understands that anybody can come to wealth with minimal tweaks to their lifestyle
2.) Everybody who doesn't choose to become wealthy understands its their choice and hence takes full responsibility and appreciation for their 'simpler' lifestyles
3.) People understand that the wealthy almost always merely solved problems that directly or indirectly impacted everyone and that they'll be happy to take your money to solve any resulting or new problems
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March 04, 2020, 02:40:31 PM

It's the pareto principle, as the number of people increase the number of people with positive value increases linearly, and the number of people with negative value increases exponentially.
The pareto principle is about distribution. In the case of contribution, human value specifically in this case, that value can be negative.
It's a distribution of inputs vs outputs, it doesn't say anything about how the number of people with positive/negative contributions develops over time.

It merely says when you have a collection of humans that you can divide into "qualities", e.g. positive and negative, then 20% of those in the positive category will create 80% of the positive things, and 20% of those in the negative category will create 80% of the negative things.

It says nothing about how many people are in each category or how that will change.


If you want to go with "humans" as input, and "value" (positive, negative, neutral) as output, then all you can get from pareto is:
20% of the humans ("input") will produce 80% of the output. This means that 80% could be neutral and 0% negative.

It also doesn't say anything about the ability of the positive to outweigh/solve the negative. Basically there is nothing in it that would let you conclude that things will get worse by any measure.
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March 04, 2020, 02:47:49 PM


TLDR: Its just the Flu x 4 bro, and its hella bullish bc money printers are in hysteria right now.

Nah,
just explain quickly why.

Talking about positive cases.
50% are asyntomatic or low symptoms, cure at home, quarantine.
50% need hospitalisation.
25% (50% of previous 50%) need intensive care.
more or less 3% of total infected eventually die (5% of previous intensive care patient).

Now, think what happens if the positive cases skyrocket to a certain number, let's say HALF of the number of people normally infected by a regular flu.

What is the supply of intensive care beds?
What happens when we will be at full capacity?

Mortality rate will rise. Also because people need intensive care also for other reasons than Coronavirus.

Also, hospital procedures are slowed donw by quarantine/extra security needed whil dealing for CoVid19 profilax.

This is the dangerous aspect of COVID19, not the mortality rate per se.

SOURCE:
It is already happening, here in Italy.


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