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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26401358 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Syke
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November 10, 2020, 10:38:12 AM

assuming bitcoin does the same trick after each halving we can expect a top at 850k or a top at 200k?

imagine 2021 being the year covid was defeated and bitcoin mooning a few hundred k $ per coin. the whole world will turn into a big party.

Each halving has a smaller effect on coin creation, so don't expect this to be as big a rally as before. Breaking $200k would definitely change my life, so won't mind it at all if I'm wrong!
Last of the V8s
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November 10, 2020, 10:53:31 AM

Some years ago, I spoke to an erstwhile East German who was already quite elderly.

Oh bloody hell hell, nullius, you're like a slave-driver with all this homework you keep setting me. Can't you tell I keep trying to duck it? anyway this one seems more tackle-able, so I probably will in a bit, and leave the hard stuff till anon.

But first things first:

P.S., for the benefit of the Wall, I should observe that diametrically opposite to idiotic popular perceptions promulgated in the Western mass media, Russian women are not cheap sluts like Western women (worst of all American women).  —Or perhaps it may be better said that Russia dumps its filthy sluts and two-faced gold diggers by exporting them to their proper place in America, while keeping the good ones at home.

 I like sluts. Cheap, filthy, 2-faced, the lot of 'em, I like 'em. A really good slut is hard to find, but worth the journey and the destination.
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November 10, 2020, 10:58:54 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), LFC_Bitcoin (1)

assuming bitcoin does the same trick after each halving we can expect a top at 850k or a top at 200k?

imagine 2021 being the year covid was defeated and bitcoin mooning a few hundred k $ per coin. the whole world will turn into a big party.

Each halving has a smaller effect on coin creation, so don't expect this to be as big a rally as before. Breaking $200k would definitely change my life, so won't mind it at all if I'm wrong!


you are right about the diminishing effect of the halvings. on the other hand consider that we never had a millionaire/billionaire/corporate treasurer of multibillion companies FOMO during a bitcoin run-up. a handful of billionaires could buy all the bitcoins. there are 2800 known billionaires and they own 8 trillion USD, which is 50x the worth of all bitcoins. as long as this is the case I believe the magnitude of run-ups is unpredictable in a way that not even a trend can be established. and there is also the concept of escape velocity. one of those future run-ups will not be like the usual bubble burst multiyear suffering. it will just keep rising and reach a level where it is not falling down anymore.
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November 10, 2020, 11:21:25 AM

Add the insane monetary policy to that and it could be 10-100x again.

Think big or go home  Cool
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November 10, 2020, 12:43:59 PM

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November 10, 2020, 01:26:22 PM

Soon.......



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November 10, 2020, 01:41:09 PM
Last edit: November 10, 2020, 02:58:28 PM by BobLawblaw
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6 months after halving?
11/11
That's tomorrow!

My body is ready.

EDIT:

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November 10, 2020, 02:51:09 PM

Jbreher long time no see
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November 10, 2020, 02:59:14 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), 600watt (1), gappie (1)

6 months after halving?

11/11

That's tomorrow!

Yes, 6 months after halving. Is it really tomorrow? What a coincidence!

As Bob says, my body is ready.

I think 2021 will be a milestone for many WOers. SOMA prediction: by the end of that year, many of us will have reached financial freedom (not necessarily "fuck you" rich status, but still completely free from wage slavery—which should be a big enough goal on its own for most). This will not mark the end of the journey, but, rather, its beginning. Unless we, ourselves end it, by selling all of our coins. This, IMHO, will be the biggest mistake a coiner can make, getting off the rocket that's just making a rest-stop at the moon. The next stop may take several years, and it won't be in our solar system, but I believe 2021 will mark the beginning of the "rewarding" phase in many HoDLers' lives. It all depends on corn amount, wants, needs, living expenses, etc., it's different for everybody, I'm just averaging out. Spending up to 10-20% on rewarding yourself with whatever pleasure you may seek (Lambos, hookers 'n' blow included, but not limited to), should be fine. Even up to 50% could be OK depending on what you want to do and if it involves family (spouse, children). But I wouldn't touch more than 50% of my stash. It's cold out there in outer space, and I don't want more than half of my body hanging out of that rocket...

Great times ahead. Our discussions, right here in WO, a year from now, will be very interesting indeed.

Onwards & upwards.

HoDL.
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November 10, 2020, 03:12:00 PM
Last edit: November 10, 2020, 03:47:49 PM by infofront
Merited by BobLawblaw (10)

6 months after halving?
11/11
That's tomorrow!

My body is ready.

EDIT:



If there is any justice in this world, the obvious court remedy will be to allow Clarence to bludgeon Joe to death in a steel cage match.
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November 10, 2020, 03:16:05 PM

6 months after halving?
11/11
That's tomorrow!

My body is ready.

EDIT:


Something to look forward to. The only little downer, old Joe isn't 100% around anymore.
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November 10, 2020, 03:31:42 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

assuming bitcoin does the same trick after each halving we can expect a top at 850k or a top at 200k?

imagine 2021 being the year covid was defeated and bitcoin mooning a few hundred k $ per coin. the whole world will turn into a big party.

Each halving has a smaller effect on coin creation, so don't expect this to be as big a rally as before. Breaking $200k would definitely change my life, so won't mind it at all if I'm wrong!


you are right about the diminishing effect of the halvings. on the other hand consider that we never had a millionaire/billionaire/corporate treasurer of multibillion companies FOMO during a bitcoin run-up. a handful of billionaires could buy all the bitcoins. there are 2800 known billionaires and they own 8 trillion USD, which is 50x the worth of all bitcoins. as long as this is the case I believe the magnitude of run-ups is unpredictable in a way that not even a trend can be established. and there is also the concept of escape velocity. one of those future run-ups will not be like the usual bubble burst multiyear suffering. it will just keep rising and reach a level where it is not falling down anymore.


This. But the question of course is which run-up. I think there's a chance it'll be this one, with an awful lot of people thrown off the bull and left behind at -20% into too much cash, thinking they can triple their BTC at -70%.

There's so many top indicators being written up atm, all with the assumption you should sell and play the multi-year bear that follows. BTC loves fucking assumptions.

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November 10, 2020, 03:34:40 PM

Uhoh. Strapping in for a choppy ride...
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November 10, 2020, 03:36:27 PM

Higher lows ebbing
not a breakout: it's steady
higher highs pending







#haiku
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November 10, 2020, 04:04:52 PM

OT: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/10/beam-users-still-cant-get-their-money-now-the-lawsuits-have-begun.html

Not your money + fractional reserve == and it's gone

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November 10, 2020, 04:11:38 PM
Last edit: November 10, 2020, 04:50:51 PM by nullius

Oh bloody hell hell, nullius, you're like a slave-driver

Quoted for reference:  Can I issue myself neutral trust feedback with this ringing endorsement? ;-)  (←N.b. “can”, not “may”; I actually don’t know whether or not I can issue myself neutral feedback.  Though yes, I jest.  I think.)

—Oh bloody hell hell, V8s, I protest that before your such reply, I wrote most of the long thing that I will post soon-ish.  It takes time to add that Nullian polish; and other activities intervened meanwhile...

But first things first:

Quote intentionally cherry-picked for a serendipitous double entendre:
and leave the hard stuff till anon.

But first things first:

filthy sluts and two-faced gold diggers ... their proper place in America

 I like sluts. Cheap, filthy, 2-faced, the lot of 'em, I like 'em. A really good slut is hard to find, but worth the journey and the destination.

Eh, I wasn’t moralizing at you.  Just remarking on my irritation at some conversations that I have had with American blokes whose knowledge of the world comes from those refined masterpieces of mass education:  Movies, TV, and porn.  Then, those same all-American males turn around and complain that they can’t find a “unicorn” woman who doesn’t lead a lifestyle of one-night stands until, at age 30 35 39, she hurries to find a husband sperm donor IVF specialist.  Russian men do not have that problem, because Russian women are not American women—especially not American liberal women who vote for Biden against Trump.

Quote intentionally cherry-picked ad maximum lulzium:
all this homework

Once upon a time, I had a tempestuous affair with an American liberal woman.  She was less annoying than most of her type—perhaps because she was, at least, a genuine cosmopolite who, at that point, had spent most of her young adult life indulging her Wanderlust in lands more civilized than the United States.  She was assuredly not a slut—not by American liberal standards:  I was only the ninth or tenth man to enter into her life of serial monogamy, which made her almost exactly approximately a virgin.  And she had a hell of a secret submissive streak—perfect for this old-fashioned “slave-driver”.

We developed between us a personal slang, a cant for our cryptic trysts and forbidden fantasies.  “Homework” was the term that she used for her own studious masturbation.  Between our assignations, I assigned her “homework” at least fifteen or twenty or fifty times per day.  She attained an A grade.

Alas, the saucy tail of this saucy tale about saucy tail does not conclude, “happily ever after”.  Ick.  I now realize that I have had sex with someone who must have voted for Hillary and Uncle Joe against Trump!  I need a bath.  Am I contaminated?  Out, damned spot!
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November 10, 2020, 04:16:48 PM
Last edit: November 10, 2020, 04:29:28 PM by nullius
Merited by infofront (1), Last of the V8s (1)

Now, to anyone who has ever read any of my posts (—or who has ever even heard of Nietzsche—), it should be obvious what I meant by this:

Although I have some deep philosophical disagreements with Solzhenitsyn, I have no doubt that he felt in his bones a deep revulsion for the sickness of the West.

My worldview is fundamentally irreconcilable with what I would characterize as, at its roots, Tolstoi’s Christian worldview.  —Surely, alas, Solzhenitsyn would object to this:  I argue that from first principles, it is Tolstoi’s Christian worldview that provides a fertile soil for Communism.  However, nonetheless, anyone who is not blind, deaf, and congenitally imbecilic is aware of this empirical reality:

Quote from: Alexander Solzhenitsyn
A fact that cannot be disputed is the weakening of human beings in the West, while in the East they are becoming firmer and stronger.

In the crudest terms:  Hard times make hard men—comfort corrupts.

The error of the Soviet Communist system, which the American Communist system corrected, was that the Soviets strengthened the defiant willpower of their own victims.  The Americans seduce, lull,—enthrall, in both the figuratively derived sense of the word, and its literal, original sense.  (Check a fucking dictionary, ignoramuses.)

Having so said, let us look a bit all the way farther to the East.  All the way to China...  —Oh, don’t worry, marcus:  This is really about the West. ;-)



https://twitter.com/MattRinaldiTX/status/1325864840846598147?s=20

How old is Uncle Joe? Not Uncle Joe Stalin, he's dead ofc, wouldn't stop him voting nowadays it's all the rage but still no the other Uncle Joe?

Quote
This guy is on @JoeBiden’s Covid task force.

Oh, dear.  That All-American Communist™ openly advocates that heirs should devalue their living ancestors.

Never mind the ones who are not yet dead...


PSA:  Do you want heirs?  Start at the opposite end of the same problem—  * nullius says to read a book!

whoops.
Too bad.
Quote from: Nietzsche
Everyone being allowed to learn to read, ruineth in the long run not only writing but also thinking.
ahem.  I’ll just wait right here, whilst the unmitigated savages add me to their ignore lists.  For they should not be allowed to read what I am about to write.






THIS SPACE IS INTENTIONALLY LEFT NULL.





Ah, that’s better!  Now that everyone is gone, I can get to my point.

Devaluation of the elderly is symptomatic of the sickness of a culture that values neither heirs nor ancestors:  Two sides of the same coin.

That READ A BOOK” link was to William S. Haas, The Destiny of the Mind: East and West (MacMillan, New York, 1956).  This is scholarship, not some pomo rationalization of multicultural dogma (though I should warn that books published from about the 1930s–70s are a grab bag in that regard, as the Communists fully took over and the last vestigial generation of scholars retired or died off).  The comparison of similarities across cultures can be as important to understanding the differences between them as vice versa; and the main thesis presented by this book is, per its title, that of a fundamental difference of minds.

Amidst the details, let us see what Professor Haas has to say about ancestor worship:  It is not only a Chinese thing!

Quote from: Haas, pp. 72f.
Still more revealing with regard to the spirit of the Roman family are its religious and political aspects.  The Romans too worshipped ancestral spirits—the lares.  In conjunction with the penates—the spirits of the household—the lares protected the life and continuity of the family, thus holding a place dear to the Roman heart.  These spirits, however, were never given ascendancy over the deities of the national cult.  The Roman family never had nor claimed the kind of omnipotence which fell to the Chinese family.  In sharp contrast to the latter, the Roman family, from its first appearance in history, aimed at something more general and greater than itself, something whose superiority it never questioned.  Hence it was that the virtues cultivated within the Roman family were easily transformed into civic and political virtues, while those of the Chinese family remained distinctly social.

[...]

Wherever it appears, the patriarchal family is a natural phenomenon.  [...]

Neither the Chinese nor the Roman state grew out of the patriarchal family.  The Chinese state was a phenomenon in its own right with its own implementation.  A psychological and ideological rivalry resulted between it and the family.  It is perfectly compatible with these conditions that the state in China should have been regarded as a kind of national family, a view which did not contribute to the state’s strength.  On the other hand, the Roman family went a long way toward meeting the prerequisites of the state.  The rising state had only to take and shape what was offered it by the family to strengthen its own political virtues.  This of course did not make the Roman family a state, any more than the reverse conditions made of the Chinese state a family.  Yet the fundamental difference remains that the Roman family was oriented to something beyond itself of a higher order.

Hence we arrive at this seemingly paradoxical fact.  The Roman state attained the power of its inner organization and outward force because of its deep psychological relation with the family.  This relation, however, in no way obliterated the boundary line between the two institutions.  In China, the state and the family faced each other as strangers.  But this separation, far from shaping the idea of state in the Chinese mind and strengthening its factual position, tended to make it difficult for the state to assert its full authority.  In Rome, despite the difference between family and state, a certain organic link between the two was achieved.  These two widely different relations between state and family apply not only to China and Rome, but with few exceptions and in varying degrees to the East and to the West in general.

Once upon a time, the West had a real culture.

It was best before Christianity.  With all due respect to Solzhenitsyn, whose courage commands admiration, his powerful and oftentimes profound intellect mistook the nature of the Renaissance, and also that of prior and of subsequent events.

In the foregoing context:  Make household gods of your ancestors.  Treat your old folks right.  The rest will follow for your posterity.  —The principle seems so obvious that I will omit the five thousand word essay.

And overall, the West should return to the roots of the Occident:
μῆνιν ἄειδε θεὰ...
Wrath, o goddess sing...’  —In the beginning of Western literature:  Homer.  Do I look wrathful to you?  —Be I thus accursed?  —Be it so, I will reign in Hell...
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November 10, 2020, 04:17:03 PM



https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1326183528002826241?s=21
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November 10, 2020, 04:19:42 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)



https://twitter.com/michael_saylor/status/1326177590491623426?s=21
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November 10, 2020, 04:23:45 PM
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Quote
For reference: These were the original charts from 2014.
The rainbow chart on this site combines them
https://www.blockchaincenter.net/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/

Quote
the Bitcointalk user trolololo in 2014
https://en.cryptonomist.ch/2020/04/17/what-is-the-bitcoin-rainbow-chart/

Quote
trolololo's 2014 Logarithmic Regression Projection
https://www.moonmath.win/

Trolololo
Logarithmic (non-linear) regression - Bitcoin estimated value
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=831547.0

Rainbow Chart and Bitcoin, a chart that always generates debate but Bitcoin follows its course
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