Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Torque]

NGL. Would pulverize.

You wouldn't be the first.

[dragonvslinux]

Weekly RSI currently at lowest level since 2015. The RSI did dip lower back then with a 25% wick, but closed @ 27.54. Totally possible to wick down to $17,250 before the week closes.



For anyone still waiting for $12K, $14K, etc, unless the 10 year Bitcoin bull market is over, and a multi-decade bear market begins, price will realistically need to recover before being able to go significantly lower. Price otherwise reached @ $22,600, within $234 of the 200 Week MA. Kind of hoping we touch in order to confirm the low and avoid any doubt. Price movement definitely looking exciting now!

[bitebits]

https://twitter.com/pavolrusnak/status/1536295220492525568

[Wilhelm]

https://twitter.com/pavolrusnak/status/1536295220492525568

So true 

[empowering]

200 W MA is but a hair away


Eyes on

The 200 W MA needs to hold , there's what the market tends to do when it gets to 200MA, goes little below to induce more sellers and then goes back above 200 MA.
Eyes on $20k or below Just one more leg down to $20k I have orders waiting to trigger @$20k to add some Stats maybe if we get more deeps I will continue to add more BTC to my portfolio.
Then come January 2025 is when I'm gonna remember my wallet.

Could even wick us down to 16-18k , I would be quite surprised if we go any further...


I do like surprises though

[Torque]

OT: Anyone want to explain to me how a company like Peloton (PTON) can even go public IPO on the stonk market?

Launched in 2019 @ $25/share. Now $10/share, three years later.

I mean srsly? WTAF?

[bitmover]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[dragonvslinux]

Historically, the 200 WMA has only ever been touched a few times by spot price, but never deeply crossed. In other words, spot price shouldn't go below $22,287 (as of today). If spot price deeply crosses that value (i.e., goes below $20k), it will be a first in Bitcoin's 13-year history.

I think you're confusing price touching the 200 Week MA and closing (a Week) below the 200 Week MA. In reality, out of 4 times price reached this level, price went below it significantly three times (75%).

early 2015: under by about 15% and closed above
late 2015: under by about 12% (also closed just below for multiple weeks)
2018: only went $40 below and closed above
2020: under by about 29% (also closed just below for 1 week)

I'm not saying it has to do any of the above this time around, just stating the facts here. Ignoring a flash crash event like in 2020, then wicking under by 0%-15% would be completely normal.

As a reminder today is Monday, so price also has the rest of the week to wick below the 200 WMA, before being able to close above it or just below...

So far based on Daily volume (high) and price volatility (-16%), the capitulation does seem sufficient already.

[savetherainforest]

Bitcoin is useless and will never serve as a store of value or even as a payment system at a large scale. Not one regular person I speak with cares about it. Institutions have it by its balls now. Wouldn’t surprise me to see $18k within the next couple weeks or sooner. Long term we are heading to 10k and below.

$18K??    .. How about in the next 12 hours?!?    

[Wilhelm]

Bitcoin is useless and will never serve as a store of value or even as a payment system at a large scale. Not one regular person I speak with cares about it. Institutions have it by its balls now. Wouldn’t surprise me to see $18k within the next couple weeks or sooner. Long term we are heading to 10k and below.

That's what make them regular "poor" people

[suchmoon]

Not one regular person I speak with cares about it.

You should probably speak with more than one person.

[BitcoinBunny]

Bitcoin is useless and will never serve as a store of value or even as a payment system at a large scale. Not one regular person I speak with cares about it. Institutions have it by its balls now. Wouldn’t surprise me to see $18k within the next couple weeks or sooner. Long term we are heading to 10k and below.

Off! Off! Off!

[bitcoinPsycho]

Bitcoin is useless and will never serve as a store of value or even as a payment system at a large scale. Not one regular person I speak with cares about it. Institutions have it by its balls now. Wouldn’t surprise me to see $18k within the next couple weeks or sooner. Long term we are heading to 10k and below.

zeroknowledge

Name checks out

[AnotherAlt]

Bitcoin is useless

Well, I don't even want to read the full text that you have written after reading the first three words.
I understand why your username Zero knowledge

[Torque]

Stop engaging the trolls

[AlcoHoDL]

Historically, the 200 WMA has only ever been touched a few times by spot price, but never deeply crossed. In other words, spot price shouldn't go below $22,287 (as of today). If spot price deeply crosses that value (i.e., goes below $20k), it will be a first in Bitcoin's 13-year history.

I think you're confusing price touching the 200 Week MA and closing (a Week) below the 200 Week MA. In reality, out of 4 times price reached this level, price went below it significantly three times (75%).

early 2015: under by about 15%
late 2015: under by about 12% (also closed just below for multiple weeks)
2018: only went $40 below
2020: under by about 29% (also closed just below for 1 week)

I'm not saying it has to do any of the above this time around, just stating the facts here. Ignoring a flash crash event like in 2020, then wicking under by 0%-15% would be completely normal.

As a reminder today is Monday, so price also has the rest of the week to wick below the 200 WMA, before being able to close above it or just below...

So far based on Daily volume (high) and price volatility (-16%), the capitulation does seem sufficient already.

Thanks for that data, which I haven't confirmed, but have no reason to doubt. I haven't zoomed into the price action down to the minute, at the times it touched the 200 WMA, I'm just referring to the data in the chart that I linked to. Note that, in that 200 WMA chart, the spot price is daily, not weekly. So the chart time step is 1 day. OK, it's not instantaneous price down to the minute, so there could be rapid dips within each day, but does this really matter if the price rebounds within a day?

It looks like the price has started diverging from 200 WMA, in the right direction (), so the 200 WMA boundary may end up holding strong once more. We'll see...

[El duderino_]

[ImThour]

Bitcoin almost touched 200 WMA. I am now all in. Bitcoin is forming Bullish Divergence on the chart.
As I said earlier, bottom is in. Anything below this level is a jackpot. BTC

[empowering]

Bitcoin almost touched 200 WMA. I am now all in. Bitcoin is forming Bullish Divergence on the chart.
As I said earlier, bottom is in. Anything below this level is a jackpot. BTC

Forming..... not confirmed (yet)